Oil has yet to bottom, WAKE UP!
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Executed first DWTI sell at $316. The faster and harder this falls the more I sell at this point. Held from a $113 average.
I think this weeks API/EIA will send oil into true panic selling. Close below $32 today sets us up for that kind of move in my opinion. I think oil can bounce around $30 but who know this market is crazy.
Looks like $300+ DWTI today friend. I think a break and close below $32 we see $30 soon. 20% DWTI sell order at $316. Sub $2 UWTI around the corner.
I'm expecting another dead cat bounce by the end of January. Cushing reaches full capacity in 6-8 weeks. Eventual flush in oil prices with a bottom in the $20's...
Being short is like a game of hot potato, you have to get out before the music stops.
I think we're overdue for some sort of dead cat bounce. I also think oil can easily drop to $30 if $32 is broken.
I plan on reducing up to 1/3 of my position soon. Monitor the situation like a hawk. We'll see...
I've been short oil since early last year. The Runup in August put me 20-30k in the hole, but I went all in plus margin against oil on the runup and only in the last two months made real money.
From 20-30k loss to currently 86k gain it's been a hell of a ride so far especially this week.
I've never really bet on anything going down, so far the best investment I've ever made. I plan on reducing my shorts especially around $30. Build a small position in UWTI and buy hand over fist if oil drops to the mid to sub $20's in a worst case sinario. We'll see...
UWTI is going to get killed on the next contract rollover.
$20 or $25 is what they think it costs many US producers to get oil out of the ground. For the Arabs it only costs less than $10.
The scenario is Cushing(hub were WTI is priced) reaches full capacity. At this rate within the next 1.5 months if production doesn't drop in the US, It forces millions of barrels onto the market. Oil crashes until it reaches the material cost to get it out of the ground. At that point US producers are forced to drastically cut production and the market bottoms.
Last week US production increased 17,000 barrels, even at those low prices Shale producers are relentless. many have to keep pumping oil to service debt.
DWTI is going over $300 this month, patience my friend. Oil is weak here cannot break/hold above $34.
Oil looking weak, unable to hold above $34. Downtrend still fully intact. Interesting to see how Asia trades without any circuit breakers.
Tomorrow will be a crazy day. I defiantly was not expecting the Chinese stock market to plunge overnight. This might be the Black Swan that hyper extends this selloff. It will be interesting to see what happens in Asian the rest of the week. Also the USD found solid support at 99.
I'm selling 20% of my DWTI position at the open tomorrow. The faster this falls the more I sell. This is truly a falling knife. I managed to hold for this long, time I start ringing the register.
HOLY S**T just hit the 2008 Low, making new lows!!!
You stickyed a loosing trade, stop loss my friend. Oil is plunging.
Hey Buddy DWTI will open at least around $275. We might even touch $300 if Oil goes to $32 tomorrow.
At $33.21 UWTI will open around the $2.80's
I'm up over $120% with the D :) Plan to start cutting my position down in the $32's. WTI struggling to gain over $34...
It's a Race to the 2008 Low of $32.40.
California has those stupid high emissions standards that require it's very own special blend of Gasoline that drives up the cost per gallon significantly.
EIA Data are Facts.
Excellent Post
Gasoline inventories +10,576K vs +1800K exp
Distillate inventories +6308K vs +200K exp
The rise in gasoline inventories was the most since May 1993.
Factor in the huge product builds and the EIA Report is Very Bearish.
Another UWTI reverse split will likly be in the cards.
Your trying to catch a falling knife again...
Yes once crude drops a few more $'s.
I haven't sold my DWTI, sitting on a boat load at the moment.
The products build for gasoline and distillates reported by API was huge and also the build in Cushing significant. I know some states like Texas tax companies on their year end inventories.
The draw is explained by the following source.
"The reason for this sharp decline: December 31 is the typical assessment date for taxes on crude oil stocks that are collected by many states/counties/municipalities in regions where the bulk of U.S. crude oil and petroleum product inventories are stored. To decrease crude inventories, companies can do a combination of the following: delay or decrease imports, increase runs at refineries, move crude oil out of the taxable region, or sell crude oil to other market participants. "
Source: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=10031
I'm Short Oil, According to my DD oil hasn't bottomed yet.
$35 oil is nothing, wait till Cushing fills up within the next two months, wait till sanctions are lifted on Iran, wait till the USD Index trades over 101, wait till $2 UWTI....
$35.46 Falling Knife, WAKE UP!
That's the sort of finale I'm waiting for. Cushing will fill up within the next two months.
Once this gets confirmed tomorrow along with the build in Cushing, crude will drop like a rock.
lol today was a Fantastic day for UWTI according to the guy with too much money.
Broke out of trading range. Wake up!
Genscape data published on Monday showed crude inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma, had reached a record high in the week to Jan. 1
http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN0UI03C20160105
Yeah nothing goes strait down, good for you if you can time the swings properly. I prefer to build and unload my position when my plan plays out, based on my DD. So far so good.
That's why I wish this UWTI message board has a daily post limit. Some people post nonstop, over 10 posts a day, it's like spam, needs a junk folder.