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Not to jinx things, but selling pressure has dried up.
Will we see some recovery here?
I am done buying. Up to my eyeballs in MXIM and BRCM calls
Did you ever see <10 ? Semi equip B2B today @6
SMH tags lower BB on lower reaction low, but SOX has not confirmed. Both gave MACD sell signals a couple of days ago but did not break hard when they did. Until today.
Larry - what's our number been doing?
We could see another semi buy window, but I expect the 'stronger' stocks will not give lower prices.
My reading of this action is to BUY this dip - semi B2B comes out tonight.
Don't bottom fish in weak stocks - SNDK is not a top quality company - it makes a commodity product which has seen its price growth and is now in a serious competitive decline.
Ramp up of China semi industry will further depress all memory chips.
China is soon to big huge buyer of semi-equip - KLAC
Out of Jun QLGC 30 puts @ 4
see post replied to
SMH fast approaching LBB
Good thing I got out of my Jun calls yesterday!!!!
Now buying MORE calls on BRCM MXIM KLAC at discount prices but still higher than when semi # was 5
This tech sell-off is due to JBL and is false as JBL is no longer indicative of outsourcing - many companies [CSCO for one] have gone oversees to non-US assemblers and JBL has suffered. The smart money knows this and will be snapping up CSCO.
BUY THIS DIP.
10% DIST: Since the 0 axis is the semi number,
can you tag each line or at least the current line with the semi value - sure we can can figure it out, but if you can automaticly tag it, it would be a nice update.
QLGC SNDK: Why does anyone want to buy these?
These are the ones you want to short at pivot tops
At the bottom, you want to buy the best performing relative to the group as they are in favor and will break out first and move the farthest - took me 8 years to learn this simple lesson ['74 to '82].
Cheap looking stocks are just that - cheap in character not value. If a stock is not rallying as the group does [QLGC, SNDK], then there are net sellers and they know things the common person does not. So do not buy - look for opportunity to short.
QLGC: Laguna Beach - guid 0-3% .34-.37 no change.
Webcast on QLogic site - investor relations
BRCM powers ahead - SMH SOX a worry to contend with.
SMH 200d has flattened out at 39.84 - bad if it turns down
SOX 200d still rising, but slightly at 488.01 - very bad if it turns down.
Something big is about to happen in this market.
Will it snooze unitl July?????
Jump in semi's any day now????
I still think rally will start before handover and FED mtg.
QLGC - are they about to pre-announce something real bad?
Out of my Jun BRCM KLAC and MXIM calls
Still have 20 QLGC 30 Jun puts
Still holding Jul calls on BRCM KLAC MXIM XLNX NVLS and ADI
Garzarelli: in bull mkt, undervalued , best buy - tech!
What more do you want to hear.
Will that 12:30 buyer be there today??????
QLGC - something is up here [down] - big vol
wish I still had all my puts - only have 20 left to sell
SMH just closed Tue gap - should bounce here
QLGC breaking down heading to LBB 25.80 - 26.00 area
Can SOX break 50d today at 473.58 ?????
Dealers picking up stock and should start to move markets up.
Question is whether there will be enough vol to push SOX through.
Now seems that 'bad' news not effecting mkts anymore - no response in oil to Iraq not pumping. Speculators ran oil up and now reality prevails - there is plenty of oil floating around.
Remember that the SPR will be filled by July - but how much per day is going there is not known for sure. But whatever it is, it is removed as a demand element.
Slight trade down open - good! SOX SMH INTC showing very slight negative MACD's and MXIM which has been in that pattern for a week in now narrowing its negative spread - a good sign IMO.
What is going on - MACD's have been in a bear pattern for months and have recovered from the bear lows to almost dead neutral - 0 on scale. The kissing patterns we are seeing should continue and resolve to a bull move as we have not retreated back into bear territory. With semi having retreated from pivot high to a day close reading of 5 - a bottom - it is confirming.
So if 6/14 was a bottom and MACD's were neutral - next move should be [must be] up!
As always - watch for breakouts in the strong stocks - BRCM MXIM ADI and I include INTC and MSFT as they are in the DJI where institutions will can easily place $.
BRCM MXIM already at DHH with mkts negative - no shorts making money, they have to cover and dealers will screw them good.
Good move here into close. Are the bears that desperate? They have to float terrorism rumors.
Just amazing how easy it is to push things down
I would have thought there would be vicious short covering.
Perhaps tomorrow.
Poole - what a jerk - just couldn't keep his mouth shut
He prefers to avg core and full CPI rates - IDIOT
Oil factor is a tax not true inflation!
intraday tick extremes without quick reversal usually mean power - up or down. I no longer watch tick or trin indicators as I have found them of no use. They are too common - watched by too many to be meaningful.
now that's more like it - SOX MACD is plus now and 50d is at 474.49 - still not there
MXIM leading the pack - as it tends to do!!!!!!!!
broke through 50.16, now to challenge 50.35
So what does it mean when stocks hit new recovery highs on the day after a bottom? They are the ones to own as their upside is open to short covering.
Yawn - apparently we have to wait until G stops speaking - lest he say something earth moving - not likely....
SOX not doing well IMO - but individual stocks are moving sideways holding gains - making bases???
Would have felt better if SOX had bested 50d then moved sideways.
Continue moves in INTC and MSFT show that $ being put to work.
GE moving up as well.
When this market moves, money will rush in and I expect new highs in the DJI quickly - but with all that semi bashing, will they lead??????
SOX about to bust thru 50d - I bought NVLS calls FYI
Not out of the woods yet - SOX needs to recoup majority of yesterday's decline or MACD sell signal [although very small] will technically be given - but perhaps just a kiss.
This next push needs to get the SOX moving!
need MXIM solidly over 50 and BRCM solidly over 43
note that QLGC cannot even hold 28
If 6/14 was <10% and say today is >10% and too late to buy and yesterday you could not buy as the 5% was not in the book until the close - where do you buy? Inquiring minds want to know!
Not me - I already bought yesterday.
Positions bought in the last hour were calls in ADI and XLNX.
Did anyone notice that KLAC was one of the first major semi's to bottom intraday? Remember KLAC fell because it said a major order might not fall in this qtr - so, if it does not, it will fall in the next qtr. The light booking is already in the stock, the upside booking spike is not! This is why you have to be in KLAC IMHO. This is no QLGC which had a similar fall for entirely different reasons.
What were they expecting on CPI to justify that 50 basis point scare for June FED?????? .4, .5 ?????
Looks like the fix was in and by breaking some trend lines in the semi's, there was panic selling realtive to volume.
Overall - very dismal ups/downs.
But MSFT quietly closed above it's 200d at its high of day.
INTC SMH SOX all avoided MACD sell signals.
MXIM which I consider a semi leader got a target price upgrade.
This has been more of a sideways consolidation than a sell-off - that's why the MACD's have been kissing and we had only a few days of downside v the number of days we are having on the upside.
And semi 10d % is: ....... ? MACD update
I don't like talking to myself - I get into arguments.
INTC SMH $SOX all avoid sell signals - yeah!
MXIM price target raised to 61 by Piper Jafrey
True - but biggest valley to peak today MSFT over 200d
It will not take much to move this mkt up - that's what I see.
Nice 'little' rally - don't miss the buying opportunity!
See what a little volume is capable of doing!
This could be the mother of all setups for benign PPI CPI and a gap up open!!!!!
Adding to positions - explained below
MACD sell signals are not showing a typical pattern for a sustained move down on SOX and SMH - so a kiss off expected.
So, given 10D <10%, etc. - I am buying again here near the close.
MACD: SOX/SMH giving sell signals - can this be avoided by the close.
How significant with such low volume????
Will they just be kissing the lines after Tue?
CPI PPI could be major turning point!
That's why I feel it's necessary to be in today!
But I did - buys completed as follows:
KLAC Jul 45.00: 50 @ 1.95 - 9.75K
BRCM Jul 42.50: 100 @ 1.80 - 18K
MXIM Jul 50.00: 100 @ 1.60 - 16K
[Approx avg prices]
I stand ready to continue to peck at KLAC to raise position to 100 or either of the others as I believe they will make large moves as they break to new highs.
But for the record - these will be the positions to watch.
2 orders filled, 1 partial - no sellers,
broker working the order and has been given a fill limit.
Details coming soon - volume light and it's been tough to buy.
Let's hope today only - a gap Tue ok, then up
MACD: SOX and SMH still no sell signal - not KLAC either!!!
[but very slim plus margins]
A note on MXIM - last MACD sell signal resulted in very minor declines in price and more of a flagging pattern - same thing in the works right now.
MXIM tends to lead the semi's so it bears a close watch - especiall since it has been UP most of today.
picks
#1 BRCM
#2 MXIM
MSFT [26.87 hi] breaking through 200d [26.80] and holding
INTC [28.02 lo] bounced off 20d [27.96]and holding
Weak hands being shaken out of semi's - all the chartists watching the various minutiae are selling at the lows!!!!!!
BUY LOW !!!!!!!
SOX: Precise parallel channel today is 468.51,
so yes - we broke it.
Chan based on 5/11 and 5/28 intraday highs and applying that slope to low on 5/17.
Also SMH 37.03 just broke parallel chan at 37.08.
Cannot dispute the facts - just the reasoning!
You will note that things have come down to the 20d SMA for all the BB players - this should hold and bounce back to UBB.
Or we just have to go the LBB's
Up runs have been more days than down runs - this is day 4 which could be the end.
Do not rule out a turn-around Tue.
36.70 certainly breaks 37.08 and I would agree we have more work to do to put in a bottom.
Today's decline has three parts
1- geopolitical - Bagdad bombings
2- fall of semis in Asia
3- BOA allocation change
So will this be a trend maker or another Monday reation low where dealers happily pick up stock cheap?????
You know my position on this.
All this underlying talk [by one firm] that semi sales have peaked seems baseless to me. The China engine will grind on and as the populus gets more and more afluent [relatively speaking] they will buy the latest consumer electronics and even toaster ovens and washers - all filled with semi-conductors. Firms like Apex are beginning to flood the mkts with cheap TV's etc., and while not the highest quality, they also meet the needs of their domestic market as well. {I bought an Apex TV for my mother and the sound is hard to control with the remote - jumps to being too loud].
Sure the rate of increase in sales comps should fall - but not overall sales.
Parallel channel to close to ignore!!!!
Your big green channel was violated 6/3-6/4 and so far looks similar???
Based on slope of intraday tops on 5/11 and 5/28 and applying the same slope to the low on 5/17, the exact parallel channel for today calcs at 37.08 [rounded up] - so far we hit 37.10
I am buying calls now - once my initial positions are filled, I will tell you what I did and we can all see how they do.
If I get better prices, I will buy more, and if it's obvious the mkts have turned, I will buy more again.
Get ready to open you wallet!
Up channel based on intraday high and lows now almost parallel due to this 'new low' - ie break of prior support TL.
Let's have some 10d % numbers - may want to update each 30 mins?
Buying calls on this dip - can we get <10%
at least intraday?
MXIM BRCM XLNX and yes KLAC [Jul 45's] you wanted to know!!!
MXIM/LLTC gave MACD sell signals but MXIM is one of the few up today?
SOX is really getting pinched between up TL channel and 50d SMA as suport and Jan/Apr DT line and well as 200d SMA as resistance.
RSI[6]: An animation showing blue line moving on a daily basis.
It would be cool to see droping from Apr high, to May low, to May high, to today - and colored red or green to indicate average direction of movement from prior day. Plus a slice of lime.
just joking - but it would be cool.