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Spent a few hours at a large Bay Area mall this afternoon. It was swarming with people this December 23.
The Apple Store was like I've never seen it before, and I've seen it very busy. But today, one could hardly get in, it was shoulder to shoulder, And the numerous staff, decked out in red tops, some carrying iPads for orders and inventory, were selling things like crazy. A constant line of ten or more at the front cash register and another line at the rear.
iPads and Touches appeared to be the big movers, with plenty of stock to go. Among a variety of busy stores in the mall the Apple Store clearly took first place. There's really no way it could run faster. It was clearly at max capacity.
Apple is the definition of retail magic. Check the stores in your area.
Consumer sentiment is up.
TNA and FAS intraday continue Down.
Happy Holidays!
I email stockchart charts to myself for when I'm away from my desk.
You can take them on the road on your iPhone, iPod Touch, iPad or other portable device that does email.
With multitouch you can zoom in and out. . .
Yes, I agree.
Let's watch it.
The key word here may be "current" which suggests it's sort of a micro measure or indicator of acceleration in the trend. At a more molar level both the EMA and SMA are pointing in the same direction.
Presently, my intraday TNA measure is gaining some strength to the downside from where it was earlier today. Not much, but some.
I see what you mean.
Nevertheless, my intraday short term trading model for TNA remains Down. Weakly, as it goes.
The Daily model, of course, shows TNA continues Up.
Let's see what the remainder of the day brings.
FAS could whip tomorrow. We'll know before noon.
Most ETFs that I follow (mainly sectors and indices) are handled reasonably well by the Daily 20 SMA model. The ones that pose it the most difficulty tend to be financials and real estate ETFs, over the past year or so.
Somebody's been bad?
I'm just watching the market, relaxing and listening to Charlie Byrd.
FAS in pullback mode, too. Down at 27.84.
I've got TNA Down at 74.55 intraday. Let's see if this is extended.
I'll of course be watching the Daily, too.
I pay $0.50 per 100 shares.
I've been using a 20 SMA. The EMA seems to hug short swings too closely for my taste.
I have not done a formal study of 20 EMA vs SMA. You may want to do that comparison.
I've never had a problem shorting a high vol. ETF with my trading focused broker. It's typically an immediate one click fill at my limit price.
One can short TZA. . .I've done it.
Your study of TZA only went one way. Hence, what do you get if you go long and short? Here, I'm not suggesting going long TNA, but rather selling TZA, i.e., shorting it.
For example, sell it short between 3.12.2009 and 6.16.2009.
That's a huge move lower.
(One can also, of course, go long or short TNA.)
The trigger was price action closing above the 20 EMA?
Yes, it's important to attend to the market at least once per day. And, maybe that's all that's necessary.
Re: #6 it's always possible to get in after the move has started, in cases where it will last for days, weeks, or maybe even months.
There are ways to set up secondary triggers for sizable moves that started with the initiation of #6.
What defined the start of the move for this study?
Thank you very much for doing it, TREND1!
Wips occur with all systems as near as I can tell. 5% loses are hard, 6% harder, etc. No system is perfect for all situations and all ETFs.
I've not traded FAS this mid year, too volatile, when there are better ETFs available, e.g., TNA. Generally, when volatility rises I use shorter time frame charts, or simply step aside and don't trade.
It's always important to pick ETFs that are amenable to one's system; I've used my daily system with TNA, SSO, and VTI. Chart reviews indicate it will work with other ETFs.
Until it doesn't. . .then it's time to change what I'm doing.
;)
I don't understand. How do "MA systems tend to fail going foreward"?
TREND1, How do you see the pros and cons of trading the 60 min chart vs the daily one for TNA and TZA?
An 'or' rule: 7 crosses 20 'or' price action closes above (or below) the 20 SMA, can also be considered. . .
What's the most concise, easily applied rule that works best?
Another way to handle this is to use an "and" rule: The 7 SMA must cross the 20 SMA "and" price action must close above (or below, depending on direction) the 20 SMA.
Both MAs can of course be tweaked to best fit the data, ETF, etc.
Consider: A close above the 20 SMA is Up and continues so until there is a close below, which is Down.
There will be occasional whips, but also enough profitable periods (Up and Down) to make it very worthwhile.
Price action and the 20 SMA control the trades.
Why not just trade trending Daily charts, reduce time monitoring, trading costs in terms of time watching the markets, etc.?
Spend more time fishing, playing golf, wandering beaches, shopping, etc.
When the Daily trend is Up you prefer the 60 min chart vs the 30 min one for short term trading?
Is that the result of back testing? Less whips, etc.?
That price will require a breakout to new local highs.
TNA has been at or near resistance all week. Something is going to change soon. I suspect it will correct and move lower.
But only the chart knows. . .and will only tell us when it happens.
My short term model for TNA tuned Up yesterday about 1030 (NYT).
Not a point of focus for me now as it has been Up for much longer on the daily chart.
The main take aways from that chart for me are:
1) On the daily chart the 50 MA can be discarded,
2) It's important to stay on the right side of the 20 MA, Bullish above, Bearish below, and,
3) The shorter MA (7) predicts danger or good things to come (depending on your position), a possible impending change in trend as it flattens and turns. It's essential to pay close attention to the slope of both MAs and the directions they are pointing. . .put an arrow head on the leading edges.
Favorite oscillators, etc. can be added for spice, if one wants, but the bottom line is the trend of price action is all that really matters.
A TNA Daily chart; Green is Up, Red, Down:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TNA&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p37440874831&a=217551541
The algorithm is under development.
Later today I'll post a TNA chart. . .
Prospect Theory and trading:
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/prospecttheory.asp
Sunday, 20 September 2009
Understanding Prospect Theory
By Albert Phung
Traditionally, it is believed the net effect of the gains and losses involved with each choice are combined to present an overall evaluation of whether a choice is desirable. Academics tend to use "utility" to describe enjoyment and contend that we prefer instances that maximize our utility.
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However, research has found that we don't actually process information in such a rational way. In 1979, Kahneman and Tversky presented an idea called prospect theory, which contends that people value gains and losses differently, and, as such, will base decisions on perceived gains rather than perceived losses. Thus, if a person were given two equal choices, one expressed in terms of possible gains and the other in possible losses, people would choose the former - even when they achieve the same economic end result.
According to prospect theory, losses have more emotional impact than an equivalent amount of gains. For example, in a traditional way of thinking, the amount of utility gained from receiving $50 should be equal to a situation in which you gained $100 and then lost $50. In both situations, the end result is a net gain of $50.
However, despite the fact that you still end up with a $50 gain in either case, most people view a single gain of $50 more favorably than gaining $100 and then losing $50. . .
Read more:
http://createwealth8888.blogspot.com/2009/09/understanding-prospect-theory.html
This is very exciting and potentially very good for consumers and AAPL.
Looking forward to Lion and wondering how this all will work out on Snow Leopard. . .
I agree real time results (like price action) is all that matters.
However, IF one were to Buy and Sell based on an excellent model one would do very well. . .say, 90% in 6 months time.
Unfortunately, since we both (like other traders) probably don't do that, something else must be operating in our decision making process.
Too often, I suspect, many traders are willing to take small profits and alas, too often, watch losses grow while they hope to see the position reverse so they can at least get back to even. Thus, the pull of intraday and swing trading can be a kind of trap.
The process. . .a pitfall of human nature.
TNA Daily Model: Prelim trade dates for last 6 months:
Down 22 June 2010
Up 8 July
D 9 August
U 31 August
D 18 October
U 2 November
D 11 November
U 1 December
. . .continuing Up today.
Taking long (U) positions only (using daily closing prices) the gain is approximately 94%, using today's high for TNA.
Consequently, why trade intraday?
My intraday model turned Down for TZA about 1100 (NYT).
I'm not trading, only checking charts now and then.
I've been working on a TNA / TZA Daily model. That doesn't need the close monitoring and time consumption of the intraday ones (mine and others).
;)
PS: . . .for TZA chart.
TREND1, Consider moving your 'ACC Profit" box to some free white space so it doesn't obscure your "Buy" notes.
Signals continue:
SPY and TNA, Down; TZA, Up.
Much nicer. Thank you!