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re cup and handle.
i'm bad identifying that pattern: but does anyone think that there's one on the hui weekly?
"Who jammed the semis?"
me! me!
OT fun stuff ... political but non-partisan:
john stewart takes on political hacks, and crossfire in particular, on crossfire ...
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A37042-2004Oct15.html
STEWART: It's not honest. What you do is not honest.
What you do is partisan hackery. And I will tell you why I know it.
CARLSON: You had John Kerry on your show and you sniff his throne
and you're accusing us of partisan hackery?
STEWART: Absolutely.
CARLSON: You've got to be kidding me. He comes on and you...
STEWART: You're on CNN! The show that leads into me is puppets making crank phone calls.
STEWART: What is wrong with you? You know, the interesting thing I have is,
you have a responsibility to the public discourse, and you fail miserably. [...]
CARLSON: Wait. I thought you were going to be funny. Come on. Be funny.
STEWART: No. No. I'm not going to be your monkey.
BEGALA: Go ahead. Go ahead.
CARLSON: I do think you're more fun on your show. Just my opinion.
STEWART: You know what's interesting, though?
You're as big a dick on your show as you are on any show.
(LAUGHTER)
well, this is something i do know about.
"Planet Out, LGBT, could be worth a watch, no profit, about 11M in revs. - right now high price but becoming public could this be the future #1 media controller of the gay scene."
i wouldn't count on that. i might be overstating a bit, but most folks in gay community pretty much think of http://gay.com as a chat/hookup site; and after the novelty of that wears off, that association still sticks. this is not a respected thing. you tell someone you saw something on gay.com and immediately they'll suspect you were there trying to hook up (friends with benefits kinda thing). kinda like telling your gf about stuff you read in hustler.
hmm. now the top stories on gay.com today are:
"Social Grace, the jerk"
"Bitter? Yeah, at jerks like you ... The point is, you're a
bastard!" Could this guy really be talking about our gay
etiquette expert?
BLOG: GOP candidate's nude male revue!
HOT: Crudup's "Beauty," a Bush spoiler?
HEALTH: Abstinence-only causing more sex
whoops. sbux.
negativity
A Federal Inflation Conspiracy?
------
u guys are usually so on-the-ball ... why didn't i read this here two weeks ago??
------
Influential bond guru Bill Gross says the government is intentionally understating the CPI -- and what a howl that has raised
Pimco bond-fund manager Bill Gross has done it again. With his October investment outlook, titled "Haute Con Job," Gross has taken on the government's statisticians and Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan. He accuses them of purposefully underestimating inflation to make the economy look stronger than it is and keep Uncle Sam's costs artificially low.
In the two weeks since Gross's thesis appeared, critics have roared, government statisticians have laughed out loud, academics have expressed disbelief, and portfolio managers have scratched their heads. But everyone has read it. "It has been the talk of the market over the past couple of weeks," says Mike Englund, chief economist at research firm Action Economics and a frequent contributor to BusinessWeek Online.
Gross struck a nerve because he offers an explanation for what seems to be a growing point of confusion among the general public: Why are personal expenses rising so quickly when the government's consumer price index is rising at just 2% to 3% a year? The typical American household budget has seen major price hikes this year for health care, food, energy, and college tuition, points out Peter Cohan, a management consultant and author in Marlborough, Mass. "There is just no way the CPI is reflecting the actual increase in costs that the typical American family faces," he says. "It doesn't pass the smell test."
"RUNNING AMOK." Case in point: One restaurateur in Pennsylvania e-mailed BusinessWeek Online in response to a recent story citing tepid inflation statistics: "Being one who considers himself 'in the trenches,' what the heck is everyone (government, business publications) talking about inflation being kept in check? Talk to the folks down here to get the real deal. Inflation has been running amok for a year and a half."
According to Gross, the government is "fudging on inflation" by adjusting many of the prices that go into its calculation for improvements in quality (for example, a standard-issue corporate laptop computer has declined in price in the past five years, but it also has a lot more memory and capability overall). Gross also says the feds are adjusting for the fact that if the price of beef goes up, people eat more chicken. Therefore, it doesn't matter so much if a steak costs more. Economists call this phenomenon "substitution bias."
Due to these adjustments, Gross figures inflation is really about a percentage point higher and gross domestic product about a percentage point lower than official statistics. Such an error would have huge ramifications for government payouts due for Social Security or TIPS (inflation-protected bonds). It would also affect bond prices and interest rates. He calls the lower levels of official inflation "a con job foisted on an unwitting public by government officials."
OR IS IT OVERSTATED? For most economists and portfolio managers, however, Gross's arguments are pure heresy. David Kotok of Cumberland Advisors called the fund manager "unduly and extremely harsh," in an Oct. 1 e-mail to clients and leaped to the defense of government economists who "are highly skilled professionals who take their work very seriously" and "do not engage in governmental conspiratorial activities of the type Gross suggests."
Action Economics' Englund says academics have been studying this question for over a decade and have sophisticated research to back up the need for adjustments. "It is irrefutable that some adjustments have to be made for quality," he says, even if their size is open to healthy debate. Ironically, he says, much of the discussion before Gross's missive was that inflation is overstated and that the adjustments don't go far enough.
Right or wrong, Gross's argument has portfolio managers thinking, which could ultimately affect the market, even if the government doesn't change its methodology. Bob Sitko, lead portfolio manager for USAA Investment Management's private-account business, says one of his analysts brought the piece to his attention. "It's a tricky issue, and I don't feel equipped to adjudicate the issue [Gross is] raising," he says, but he believes Gross and others who have voiced this concern may generate some response from the Fed.
WRATH, RIDICULE, AND CREDIT. And Sitko says the debate has spurred him to do some deeper thinking about the way productivity increases in Corporate America have contributed to low inflation. He worries now that business reluctance to spend on new technology could suppress productivity growth and lead to more inflation in the future than would otherwise occur.
While Gross has raised wrath and even ridicule, he deserves credit for addressing head-on a central economic paradox that many ordinary folks are wondering about. The truth about the inflation number is probably somewhere between his claims and those of his critics, but based on the reaction Gross is getting, he's clearly asking the right question.
re quantum dots
"Evident's dots aren't quite ready for such a cutting-edge use as to be planted in cancer cells. But that's in the works. The dots would tag a tiny cell so scientists with strong microscopes could track a single cancer cell and perhaps solve some of the mysteries of cancer."
for an article geared to getting folks stirred up about the possibilities, the ones they talk about are pretty mundane. (apparently all viewed through what the company evident can do.) and no pictures!!
http://www.qdots.com
nevertheless, the tracking of cancer cells in vivo was already announced last month
http://www.bio-itworld.com/archive/091604/light_sidebar_6071.html
and evident is overstating their case: sandia did a white light device as well, over a year ago, i think ... and probably others.
if the only thing that came out of quantum dot research was better light bulbs and visualization, it would be good but surprising. to computer folk, at least, the possibilities are like those of moving from vacuum tubes to photolithography ...
e.q. quantum mirage http://www.almaden.ibm.com/almaden/media/mirage.html
qubit superposition http://stardec.hpcc.neu.edu/~bba/RES/QCOMP/QCOMP.html
OT spyware. try foxfire as a browser. you can selectively block just about anything you want, and manage your cookies as you wish as well.
... but until then, there's jobs numbers friday a.m. before the debate, and to the extent that those can be massaged and manipulated ... well, looks to me like the market wants a party for that event in preparation for friday night's debate.
move over goog:
http://search.msn.com/
http://www.imagine-msn.com/search/en-us/
interesting: it seems to be functionally different in how it picks pages ...
OT
Hard
a poem by George W. Bush
In Iraq, no doubt about it,
it's tough.
It's hard work.
It's incredibly hard.
It's -
And it's hard work.
I understand
how hard it is.
I get the casualty reports every day.
I see on the TV screens
how hard it is.
But it's necessary work.
We're making progress.
It is hard work.
You know my hardest -
the hardest part
of the job
is to know
that I committed the troops
in harm's way
and then do the best I can
to provide comfort
for the loves ones
who lost a son
or a daughter
or husband
and wife.
It is hard.
9.30.04
DJ UK PRESS: Pressure Grows On G7 To Agree Dlr Devaluation
09/26/2004
Dow Jones News Services
(Copyright © 2004 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.)
LONDON (Dow Jones)--U.S. President George Bush is being urged to signal a dollar devaluation of up to 20% to rebalance the global economy ahead of Friday's Group of Seven and International Monetary Fund meetings in Washington, the U.K.'s The Business newspaper reported.
Senior U.S. administration officials in Washington have over the past few days tried to influence the White House and U.S. Treasury to put pressure on the G7 to agree to a dollar depreciation in its final statement, the newspaper said.
Recent data have shown the U.S. current account and trade deficits running at record levels, and economists have said a dollar depreciation is needed to rein these in.
The euro was quoted at $1.2260 in late New York trade Friday, compared with $1.2273 on Thursday. The dollar was fetching Y110.64 versus Y110.63, and CHF1.2624 versus CHF1.2598. The pound was trading at $1.8041, up from $1.7982.
The G7 will also call on the world's oil producers to take further action to bring down prices, The Sunday Times reported. Crude oil reached almost $49 a barrel in New York Friday, amid continued concerns that high energy costs will sap global growth.
Spurring economic growth will be high on the agenda at the meetings of G7 finance ministers and central bankers next week, U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow said Friday.
"The promotion of economic freedom, opportunity and growth throughout the world will be a key topic," he said in a statement in New York City.
G7 officials meeting in Washington next week will be representing Canada, Italy, France, Germany, Japan, the U.K. and the U.S. Officials from China will also be present.
-By Neil Keane; Dow Jones Newswires; +44-20-7842-9495; neil.keane@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
09-26-04 0623ET
although perhaps the bush/kerry point could be in play as well. even marc faber said that after labor day, the market should be pricing in a bush win/loss, and for a short time, that looked more likely. over the last week, though, poll data has been swinging the other way. e.g.
today: http://electoral-vote.com/
yesterday: http://www.electoral-vote.com/sep/sep21.html
monday: http://www.electoral-vote.com/sep/sep20.html
"SUNW did trade 76 million shares today, but CSCO should have cancelled it out."
hmm. but the trin calculation is roughly average volume in a down stock vs average volume in an up stock. and with everything skewed to the downside, all you really need is above average volume in the few stocks heading up to get number < 1.
"I don't know, there might be some low priced issue being bought in drove skewing the number"
very high vol on some homebuilders - kbh, tol - and above average on gold miners ...
"You ever use one? Unless you had it laying down and used it like a piece of paper, I would prefer a tablet."
exactly. my mom has one, and i've used it as i would a notebook computer. actually, very literally, much more like a laptop.
but its a bimodal sort of thing: if i'm using the keyboard alot, i'd prefer to just use keyboard shortcuts. if not, just a pen works great.
but i guess its all an issue of taste, etc.
the drawback of any kind of pen (with or without lcd) is taht you need to put the pen somewhere while you're using the keyboard; with a mouse, at least its right there ...
OT "You ever try a drawing tablet?"
now you're talkin'! lcd tablet is *the best* thing ...
http://a9.com/?q=tablet+lcd
though for regular tablets, wacom is the name ..
well art cashin did just call this a distribution day ..
any familiarity here with tax code?
there must be something wrong with this picture. suppose i have short term gains. i buy some msft and get the $3 special dividend and take a corresponding -$3 loss on the stock. the short term loss balances my short term gains, and i pay tax only on the dividend.
sounds like free money ... something must be wrong ...
re yahoo. me, i do. but i'm watching the whole group (well, at least yhoo, akam, rsas, goog.)
gap 'n' crap on fed day? what happened to the old days of flat into the fed?
Blanchard & Co., the New Orleans coin and bullion
dealer, says it will file tomorrow another anti-trust
lawsuit against Barrick Gold and J.P. Morgan Chase
over their alleged manipulation of the gold market.
The new lawsuit will be a federal class action that
intends to build on the first Blanchard suit so that
all gold investors in the United States since 1998
might recover losses caused by the Barrick-Morgan
Chase conspiracy.
Blanchard CEO Donald W. Doyle Jr. made the
announcement today in an interview with GATA.
Blanchard's first lawsuit, which has entered the
evidence-gathering "discovery" phase in U.S.
District Court in New Orleans, is expected to go
to trial in April 2005, Doyle said. He added that
Barrick and Morgan Chase are not being forthcoming
in discovery and that Blanchard has filed a motion
asking the court to compel them to produce certain
evidence. Still, Doyle said, he is confident that
evidence already obtained has given Blanchard a
strong case.
The current lawsuit seeks only injunctive relief
-- a court order prohibiting Barrick and Morgan
Chase from continuing to manipulate the gold
market. The class-action lawsuit to be filed
tomorrow, Doyle said, will attempt to quantify
the financial harm done by Barrick and Morgan
Chase to gold investors and devise a remedy for
their restitution.
The named plaintiffs in the class-action suit
will be Greg McKenzie and A.J. Miller, Doyle said,
and Blanchard & Co. will bear all the expenses of
the litigation.
"We expect to obtain compensation for all gold
owners, not only for their losses from their gold
investments but also for the profits they should
have realized," Doyle said.
"The exact number of gold owners who are members
of the class is unknown at this time and can be
determined only through appropriate discovery
and expert testimony. But we allege, on
information and belief, that the members of the
class owned, during the period at issue, about
96.5 million ounces of gold having a market value
of $38.58 billion at $400 per ounce. Once a
judgment is obtained and the amount of damages
suffered by the class members is determined, those
damages will automatically be tripled under the
mandatory provisions of the federal anti-trust
laws.
"In 1983 Barrick Gold Corp. was a start-up
company with a single mine in Canada and a
founder with no experience in the gold business.
By 2001 Barrick had amassed off-balance-sheet
assets that were worth more than the market
capitalization of the next five biggest gold-
mining companies in the world combined.
Barrick made $2.3 billion on its short sales
of gold and made a profit on those short sales
for 62 consecutive quarters. A short sale is
inherently a high-risk speculation. How many
true speculations have ever been profitable
for 62 consecutive quarters?"
Blanchard's original lawsuit charges essentially
that Morgan Chase provided Barrick with so much
borrowed gold -- presumably obtained from central
banks -- on such favorable terms that Barrick
could overwhelm the market and move prices up
or down at will and not have to repay the
borrowed gold for many years if at all. In some
years, Blanchard maintains, Barrick was able to
supply to the market more gold than was supplied
by all the bullion banks combined.
In an attempt to have Blanchard's lawsuit
dismissed, Barrick seemed to acknowledge the
plaintiff's premises. Barrick submitted a motion
arguing that in borrowing gold and selling it
into the market, the company was acting as the
agent of central banks and carrying out their
policies in the gold market and thus should share
their immunity from lawsuits.
Judge Helen Berrigan rejected Barrick's motion
and sent the case on for discovery and trial.
"While the price of gold fell by more than 25
percent," Doyle said, "Barrick was able to
increase its annual operating cash flow by
more than 400 percent. Barrick became the
dominant gold mining company in the world
through acquisitions made with the profits from
its short sales of gold. By suppressing and
depressing gold prices, Barrick forced its
competitors to sell gold assets and companies
at fire-sale prices.
"The measures that Blanchard has taken have
already been good for the gold industry and our
clients. Since we began discussions with Barrick
in this lawsuit, the company has reduced its
hedging position by 10 million ounces, adding
gold demand and subtracting gold supply. On
December 2, 2003, Barrick's president and chief
operating officer announced that Barrick had
given up hedging for good. By consenting to the
termination of its short sales of gold --
assuming that Barrick honors its commitment --
the company took a major remedial step sought
by Blanchard's original complaint.
"I believe that the class action will be
successful in recovering damages and putting a
stop to practices that have suppressed and
depressed the price of gold and all tangible
assets," Doyle concluded.
Blanchard's Internet site with information about
its litigation is:
http://www.savegold.org
GATA hopes to provide you with more information
about Blanchard's lawsuits as it becomes
available.
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
any speculation on how this would affect the markets, esp oil, if the iraq scenario plays out as novak suggests here?
Quick exit from Iraq is likely
September 20, 2004
BY ROBERT NOVAK SUN-TIMES COLUMNIST
Inside the Bush administration policymaking apparatus, there is strong feeling that U.S. troops must leave Iraq next year. This determination is not predicated on success in implanting Iraqi democracy and internal stability. Rather, the officials are saying: Ready or not, here we go.
This prospective policy is based on Iraq's national elections in late January, but not predicated on ending the insurgency or reaching a national political settlement. Getting out of Iraq would end the neoconservative dream of building democracy in the Arab world. The United States would be content having saved the world from Saddam Hussein's quest for weapons of mass destruction.
The reality of hard decisions ahead is obscured by blather on both sides in a presidential campaign. Six weeks before the election, Bush cannot be expected to admit even the possibility of a quick withdrawal. Sen. John Kerry's political aides, still languishing in fantastic speculation about European troops to the rescue, do not even ponder a quick exit. But Kerry supporters with foreign policy experience speculate that if elected, their candidate would take the same escape route.
Whether Bush or Kerry is elected, the president or president-elect will have to sit down immediately with the Joint Chiefs of Staff. The military will tell the election winner there are insufficient U.S. forces in Iraq to wage effective war. That leaves three realistic options: Increase overall U.S. military strength to reinforce Iraq, stay with the present strength to continue the war, or get out.
Well-placed sources in the administration are confident Bush's decision will be to get out. They believe that is the recommendation of his national security team and would be the recommendation of second-term officials. An informed guess might have Condoleezza Rice as secretary of state, Paul Wolfowitz as defense secretary and Stephen Hadley as national security adviser. According to my sources, all would opt for a withdrawal.
Getting out now would not end expensive U.S. reconstruction of Iraq, and certainly would not stop the fighting. Without U.S. troops, the civil war cited as the worst-case outcome by the recently leaked National Intelligence Estimate would be a reality. It would then take a resolute president to stand aside while Iraqis battle it out.
The end product would be an imperfect Iraq, probably dominated by Shia Muslims seeking revenge over long oppression by the Sunni-controlled Baathist Party. The Kurds would remain in their current semi-autonomous state. Iraq would not be divided, reassuring neighboring countries -- especially Turkey -- that are apprehensive about ethnically divided nations.
This messy new Iraq is viewed by Bush officials as vastly preferable to Saddam's police state, threatening its neighbors and the West. In private, some officials believe the mistake was not in toppling Saddam but in staying there for nation building after the dictator was deposed.
Abandonment of building democracy in Iraq would be a terrible blow to the neoconservative dream. The Bush administration's drift from that idea is shown in restrained reaction to Russian President Vladimir Putin's seizure of power. While Bush officials would prefer a democratic Russia, they appreciate that Putin is determined to prevent his country from disintegrating as the Soviet Union did before it. A fragmented Russia, prey to terrorists, is not in the U.S. interest.
The Kerry campaign, realizing that its only hope is to attack Bush for his Iraq policy, is not equipped to make sober evaluations of Iraq. When I asked a Kerry political aide what his candidate would do in Iraq, he could do no better than repeat the old saw that help is on the way from European troops. Kerry's foreign policy advisers know there will be no release from that quarter.
In the Aug. 29 New York Times Magazine, columnist David Brooks wrote an article (''How to Reinvent the GOP'') that is regarded as a neo-con manifesto and not popular with other conservatives.
''We need to strengthen nation states,'' Brooks wrote, calling for ''a multilateral nation-building apparatus.'' To chastened Bush officials, that sounds like an invitation to repeat Iraq instead of making sure it never happens again.
jcp chart seems to have given in some to that "cliff"; but high volume and not down THAT much. and oddly, the volume seems to be correlated with the dividend announcement this afternoon.
there must be something there i'm missing. (yeah options, but options interest on jcp is miniscule.)
August chip equipment orders fall
Trade group says orders were down 5% from July after almost a year of growth, sees trend continuing.
September 17, 2004: 7:42 AM EDT
SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - North American semiconductor capital equipment manufacturers reported that orders fell in August after nearly a year of growth, a U.S. trade group said Thursday, adding that orders may weaken further in coming months.
Orders for equipment used to produce microchips reached $1.52 billion in August, down 5 percent from July, Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International said in a monthly update.
Orders were still more than double the same month last year, when the chip industry ordered $731.8 million in equipment.
Billings, or shipments, were $1.51 billion in August, down 1 percent from July and up 90 percent from a year earlier. The ratio of orders to shipments, known as the book-to-bill ratio, was 1.00 in August, meaning that for every $100 of products shipped, an equal amount of new orders were received.
"A number of recent company announcements suggest these levels may continue to soften in the coming months," said Lubab Sheet, research development director of the trade group, in a statement. "However, we believe the industry is on track to exceed our overall worldwide forecast projection of $36 billion this year."
Blue Water Gas Pipeline On Fire In Gulf - MMS ]EP
09/16/2004
Dow Jones News Services
(Copyright © 2004 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.)
(MORE) Dow Jones Newswires
09-16-04 1538ET
*DJ MMS: Transocean's Nautilus Drilling Ship Missing In Gulf
(MORE) Dow Jones Newswires
09-16-04 1539ET
*DJ Transocean Confirms Nautilus Drilling Ship Missing In Gulf
(MORE) Dow Jones Newswires
09-16-04 1541ET
DJ Transocean Confirms Nautilus Drilling Ship Missing In Gulf
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Transocean Inc.'s (RIG) Nautilus drilling ship has gone missing in the Gulf of Mexico in the wake of Hurricane Ivan, the company confirmed Thursday.
The U.S. Minerals Management Service, a branch of the U.S. Department of Interior, also reported the disappearance of the ship, which drills for oil and natural gas.
Separately, the MMS also reported that El Paso Corp.'s (EP) Blue Water natural gas pipeline was on fire in the Gulf. The pipeline is part of the Tennessee Gas Pipeline, which can move 6.5 billion cubic feet a day from Gulf Coast producing areas to the Northeast. El Paso had reported a sudden pressure drop on the Blue Water System earlier Thursday.
The reports are the first of significant potential damage of energy infrastructure due to Hurricane Ivan, which hewed to an easterly track that spared the bulk of the Gulf Coast's offshore production facilities and refineries.
Nautilus was working for Royal Dutch/Shell Group (RD,SC) unit Shell Oil when Ivan hit. All 115 people aboard were evacuated ahead of the storm, Transocean spokesman Guy Cantwell said. Aircraft continue to look for the drilling ship.
"We haven't accounted yet for the deepwater Nautilus," Cantwell said. "But we still have some hours of daylight here, and we're just hoping for the best."
The Blue Water pipeline has some 300 million to 400 million cubic feet a day of capacity.
El Paso has asked producers not to begin flowing gas into the line, spokewoman Kim Wallace said. The MMS expects the fire to burn itself out as gas in the line is consumed.
-By Spencer Jakab, Dow Jones Newswires; 201-938-4377; spencer.jakab@dowjones.com
interesting ... from lee's board ...
Imminent S&P Float Transition To Affect Most ETFs
By ETFzone Staff
Standard & Poor's will kick off its transition to float adjustment for major US indexes on September 28. What may surprise ETF investors is the extent to which all US equity ETFs, and not just those based on S&P indexes, will be affected. One-time extra trading and impact costs for S&P-based ETFs will be will be better known on the 28th. Perhaps more importantly, it will be possible to gauge the extent of any potential sell-off of ETFs containing many companies with low float.
Float is the amount of an individual company's stock held by outside investors, as opposed to shares held tightly by insiders or in cross-ownership with another company. Float is often thought of as the supply of stock available for sale to the investing public. S&P has traditionally weighted indexes on total shares outstanding (float and tightly held), but is following other index providers to float-based weighting. Only float shares are thought to be part of the investable universe, and reviews of index returns show that float-based indexes perform better over time.
Since S&P indexes contain companies found in many other indexes and ETFs that follow them, nearly every ETF investor will be affected negatively in some fashion. Shares of a company with lower than average float will have to be sold off by ETFs tracking an S&P index containing the company. This will exert downward price pressure on that company's shares and on any ETF holding them. The opposite is true of high float companies. Their shares will be bid up, as ETFs tracking an S&P index containing them will call for greater representation. Neither scenario is desirable, since they entail transaction costs and they force investors to "buy high and sell low". At least in the case of high float, existing holdings of a company's stock will rise in value as buying forces prices of newly acquired shares up.
Technology and small-cap ETFs are likely to be hit hard because they are relatively recent creations and their founders typically retain large holdings, which reduces float. Large cap indexes of old-line industrial companies with little remaining inside ownership and as a result high float are less likely to suffer damage. An obvious likely loser is the technology-heavy Nasdaq-100 Trust (AMEX:QQQ), while the industrials-centered DIAMONDs (AMEXIA) is better positioned for the shock.
S&P is gradually weaning investors off traditional weighting with the following transition schedule:
* September 28: announcement of the percentage of float shares of every company found in its indexes
* October 15: publishing of three versions of every index: the existing index, a half float-adjusted index, and a full float-adjusted index.
* March 18, 2005: Official shift to half float-adjusted indexes.
* September 16, 2005: Official shift to full float-adjusted indexes.
The company clearly hopes that spacing out the transition will dampen additional costs created by arbitrageurs who may try to snap up high-float companies or sell short low-float companies in anticipation of pricing pressure in either direction. Arbitrageurs normally zero in on one stock for a short time period, and this 18-month transition would force them to make multiple plays on hundreds of stocks and would subject themselves to the vagaries of the market over an extended time.
09/15/2004
this sounds like a "try to bury it on friday during a hurricane" story.
Source In CIA Leak Story Reveals Identity To Probers - WP
09/16/2004
Dow Jones News Services
(Copyright © 2004 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.)
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--A Washington Post reporter's confidential source has revealed his or her identity to the special prosecutor conducting the CIA leak inquiry, The Washington Post reports in its Thursday edition.
Post reporter Walter Pincus, who had been subpoenaed to testify to a grand jury in the case, instead gave a deposition in which he recounted his conversation with the source, the Post said. Pincus said he did not name the source and agreed to be questioned only with the source's approval.
"I understand that my source has already spoken to the special prosecutor about our conversation on July 12 [2003], and that the special prosecutor has dropped his demand that I reveal my source. Even so, I will not testify about his or her identity," Pincus said in a prepared statement, according to the Post.
"The source has not discharged us from the confidentiality pledge," said The Post's executive editor, Leonard Downie Jr.
so maybe this is why moneyflow on ibm has been so negative.
I.B.M. Shrugs Off Loss of a Service Contract It Once Flaunted
By GRETCHEN MORGENSON
Published: September 16, 2004 NY Times
Back in December 2002, when J. P. Morgan Chase announced a seven-year, $5 billion deal to outsource much of its data processing to I.B.M., both companies bragged that the contract - the largest of its kind for I.B.M. - would reduce costs, create value and propel innovation at J. P. Morgan.
Now both companies are saying, uh, never mind.
In a major blow to I.B.M.'s grand corporate strategy of providing technology services to companies large and small around the globe, J. P. Morgan Chase said yesterday that it was pulling the plug on the contract less than two years into its existence. The 4,000 J. P. Morgan employees who moved to the International Business Machines Corporation as part of the deal will return to the bank early next year.
"We believe managing our own technology infrastructure is best for the long-term growth and success of our company as well as our shareholders," said Austin Adams, chief information officer at J. P. Morgan Chase.
The 2002 contract was the centerpiece of I.B.M.'s transformation from a technology manufacturer to a technology manager, a strategy devised and overseen by the chief executive, Samuel J. Palmisano. According to analysts, the contract with J. P. Morgan was among the largest such outsourcing contracts ever signed; only a $6.9 billion deal won by the Electronic Data Systems Corporation to manage information technology for the Navy was larger.
Trying to put the contract loss in the best possible light, however, I.B.M. said it was simply a result of J. P. Morgan Chase's merger this year with Bank One. "The combined firm found itself with an abundance of I.T. assets," an I.B.M. spokesman, James Sciales, said. "This decision was like other business decisions related to the merger."
I.B.M. also said the contract's cancellation would result in an unspecified earnings gain in 2005 because the company would no longer be making investments related to the deal. It said the lost contract would be reflected in the company's backlog of information technology services, to be disclosed next month when I.B.M. announces its third-quarter results.
But yesterday's announcement made some analysts wonder whether I.B.M.'s technology outsourcing strategy - its response to what it calls the on-demand era - is as promising or as profitable as the company has led investors to believe.
"This was Palmisano's grand vision, and this was the reference account," said Fred Hickey, editor of The High-Tech Strategist, an investment newsletter in Nashua, N.H. "This whole on-demand strategy kicked off just a couple of years ago was predicated on these kinds of large accounts they were going to win. Now, not very long after starting it, they're pulling it back. You have to question whether this strategy is going to be successful or if services will be, as Sun's Scott McNealy says, the graveyard for old tech companies that can't compete."
Mr. Hickey, who is largely negative on technology stocks, has made a very small bet against I.B.M. in his own portfolio.
The company declined to say how much its future revenue would decline because of the scuttled deal. But in a note to clients, Bill C. Shope, an analyst at J. P. Morgan Chase, said that I.B.M.'s loss in revenues from the contract would be some $700 million to $800 million a year.
I.B.M. shares declined slightly yesterday, falling 0.4 percent, to $86.37.
There is no denying that I.B.M.'s future is heavily reliant on success in global services. Revenues from that unit now account for half of I.B.M.'s sales, which totaled $89 billion in 2003. Hardware revenues were roughly a third of the company's total sales in the first half of 2004, reflecting I.B.M.'s relatively recent exits from the disk drive, consumer PC, aluminum semiconductor and chip packaging businesses. Software sales accounted for just 15 percent of total revenue in the period.
But even amid I.B.M.'s big push into services, revenue growth in the unit is slowing. Services revenue rose only 2 percent in the second quarter of 2004, after accounting for currency exchange rates. In 2003, services revenue grew 9.3 percent.
Indeed, during 2003, global services provided the only bright spot for I.B.M. in revenue growth. Software sales rose only 1.9 percent last year, in constant currency, and hardware, financing and enterprise investments all declined.
While services dominate I.B.M.'s revenues, gross profit margins in the business - at 25 percent in the second quarter - are the lowest at the company.
Mr. Sciales said that the cancellation of a deal the company had characterized in a news release as groundbreaking and "the largest of its kind," had not caused great concern at the company over its on-demand strategy. He said the deal with J. P. Morgan was not the largest servicing agreement signed by I.B.M., but declined to identify any contracts the company had struck that were larger.
Neither would Mr. Sciales disclose the revenue that I.B.M. booked during the quarters that the J. P. Morgan contract was in place, or how big the earnings gain resulting from its cancellation would be.
I.B.M. is not the only technology services company that has experienced problems with long-term contracts. Electronic Data, its chief rival in the business, has struggled with some of its largest contracts. Cap Gemini, a competitor in Europe, has also encountered problems.
Bill Fleckenstein, president of Fleckenstein Capital in Seattle, said that long-term contracts struck by technology services companies like I.B.M. and Electronic Data were almost impossible for investors to assess for profitability. That is because, under accounting rules, the companies devising the contracts have wide leeway in the amount of expenses they can assign to the business during a given period. If expenses are underestimated, the contracts look far more profitable than they really are.
Moreover, the expenses and how they are assigned are rarely disclosed.
"What's really needed is some clarity on this issue," said Mr. Fleckenstein, who has bet against I.B.M. in his portfolio. "They have been crowing about on-demand and how great their backlog is. If losing the contract is a good thing, why is getting more of these types of contracts also a good thing? No facts are given on this, the supposed wave of the future for their business."
yikes! goog just took a nosedive.
"Thanks. Probably a lot of sideline money afraid of missing a RMBS/IFX settlement."
is that what folks do with the legendary sideline money? sounds like that kinda money is also useful in the slots. (schwartzenegger, take note!)
well yahoo, at least, but what's odd is that they appear to have taken a huge loss ...
odd. goog:
24-Aug-04 YAHOO INC.
Beneficial Owner (10% or more) 2,317,093 Sale at $82.6161 per share. $191,429,186
9-Aug-04 YAHOO INC.
Beneficial Owner (10% or more) 2,700,000 Acquisition (Non Open Market) at $121.50 per share. $328,050,000
and now for something completely different ... and non-political ...
http://www.angryalien.com/0804/jawsbunnies.asp
jaws in 30-seconds reenacted by bunnies.
thanks. that's been my feeling, but its been vacillating in this range lately and i was wondering whether they were just taking it down here for options expiration.
surprising how little effort its taken them on lots of stocks to bring them right to round numbers for expiration. dell's another one that looks like its visited the top of its range already ... but then, that one lives in a world of its own.
yet akam seems to be moving along with the rest of the internuts: goog, yhoo, rsas, yadda yadda ...
so does anyone else think that jcp looks like its clinging to the edge of a cliff here? (now whenever i say something like that, someone comes back saying "coiled spring!")
"That is quite outside the realm of sound economics."
"The modern conservative is engaged in one of mans oldest exercises in moral philosophy; that is, the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness." - John Kenneth Galbraith
"They work harder than the cash in the hands of the poor. The rich just don't stuff their mattresses, which as we know is an activility highly detrimental to economy."
well, while chasing high yield junk bonds was arguably good for the companies at risk, its hard for me to immediately swallow that all of the activities of hedge funds, commodities speculation, nikkei, china, tech, whatever, is the best use for that cash.
why, specifically, is stimulating investment more efficient than simulating consumption? i think we all can agree that the latter (1) gives a quicker and stronger short-term boost, and (2) is probably the "nicer" thing to do but (3) why is it better in the long run? it seems like it just brings about a permanent redistribution of wealth. which i suppose can be good in some eyes ...