This sox move is just getting better and better...but it still should pause in this area around the 200 and 300 sma's.

I think we're real close to a mild top now and pullback to the 9ema in the next few days. We could go a bit higher before/after amat, but then we should get the 9ema in the 2080 area IMO.

It won't kill me if we keep going up, but a drop from around 2120 to 2080 would be ok first. Could still take a couple days to do it.

Posted by: mjk
In reply to: dieselfuel who wrote msg# 20759
Date:11/12/2004 10:38:00 PM
Post #of 20831

Sorry, should be this...

After a quick review here, I think we rise to 2120 over a few days, fall back to 2080 or so and get the 9ema, then rise to 2153...over the next 8-10 trading days.

Any coth signal today? TIA

The sox is up 2.8% so far...just the kind of candle I wanted to see. Right near its 200sma now at 442. My guess would be that amat now leads to a pause around the sox 200, then after the comp drops to the 9ema, it rises to 2153 and the sox to its 300sma at 459. I don't know what to expect the rest of the day...just that whether before or after amat, we can go a little higher to the 2120's, then "correct" for a couple days, then head up again.

The sox still has a long way to go up IMO.

Hey, if we go to 2120, then drop to 2080...that is sideways (from yesterday) right? So I'm sure you'll be ok if that happens <g>. It looks like we're staying on my preferred path...I say that while crossing my fingers <g>.

Now will someone give jdsu a swift kick in the ass please...and the sox.

"I could see the $compx hitting the 9ema, that's only 24 points.
That COULD happen tomorrow."

Yes it could...2055 as a low would work for me also...I'm like you, I THINK the next few days will tell me something as well. If we drop to the 9ema tomorrow, I think that would be it and we'd head up to 2153 in about 5 more days. If we head up above 2100 first in the next 2-3 days, then my low target would be 2080 or so, and 2153 wouldn't come until after thanksgiving. The only real difference between these two is what happens after we get to 2153 later...one would mean we go right thru 2153 and then it becomes support on the next pullback. The other would mean we break 2153 by a bit (2175?), then correct 5% or so. The longer term differences in these don't matter to me. The only thing that would matter to me right now is a significant break of the 9ema.

I don't know about sox ishares...sorry.

"I'd like to see "sideways" until Fri. and then see us go up again."

Me too kinda...I'd still like to see us creep up a bit more, towards that 2120 over the next 2-3 days, then fall for a couple days and get the 9ema around 2080...so pretty much sideways from here for the several days and really no change from what I thought at the end of last week.

I think the sox could have a monster up day any time now in the next few days. Ultimately, I think it should be getting its 300sma at 459 around the same time the comp is taking out 2153...so in just the next 10-15 trading days. Hopefully amat doesn't ruin this part of the plan.

I'm still open to the idea of falling to the comp 9ema any time, but my preferred path is still to get 2120 or so first. I'm also keeping my eyes open for signs that we could break the 9ema and actually drop much lower...there's always that possibility but right now I have those chances as very slim. I think at this point any break of 2000 would lead to lower prices for up to a couple months and a huge 2005...again, right now I don't think this is even possible, but I'm keeping every option open in case we deviate from the primary plan.

7:20AM Juniper Networks awarded largest share of China Telecom's Next-Generation network (JNPR) 28.79: Co announced it has been awarded the largest share of the contract for China Telecom's next-generation backbone network. China Telecom, the country's leading telecommunications provider, selected Juniper Networks routing platforms exclusively for its national core backbone and eight South China provincial backbone networks.

That's good news, they say in the press release...

"While reducing our workforce is difficult and painful, it is absolutely necessary. We are committed to being profitable on an operating basis," said Tom Tullie, AMCC's chief operating officer. "We remain dedicated to our communications, storage and embedded businesses and will continue to provide the high quality products, service and support our customers have come to expect from AMCC."

I think we could fall to the 9ema anytime now...if we do from here, I think 2055 is a decent target. I'd still like to see 2120 hit (then fall to 2080), but 2094 to 2055 would work ok as well. The one thing is, I didn't think this short term top would look like this...I mean close at the highs today, then fall hard the next...so I'll still be looking for this to happen over the next few days, which may give the opportunity to go a bit higher still...or at least sideways for the next day or two. Then I think we're right back up to get 2153.

justa, with all the sell signals you've gotten the past 3 weeks, and the bullish extremes you've seen, you must think we have somewhat of a decent drop ahead...can you give at least a minimum drop target you'd expect after all this...for the comp, s&p, or whatever you'd like? Do you see any chance the comp will get 2153 in the next couple weeks?

TIA

del

Yes, and the smh is definitely doing ok today. Sox is at a nice spot on the chart now, break out time possibly. PMCS continues to do well also.

I can't get these jdsu 06 $5s to fill...only 10 went thru so far.

I prefer jdsu over each of those...I wouldn't mess with NT with all these accounting issues...but that being said, that's probably when you'd want to buy it.

amcc trades at 2X cash, jdsu at 3X cash, this won't be the case forever. Once this inventory correction is over, they should be right back on track for pos cashflow...we'll see where they are by that time. These prices will look ridiculous in a year IMO.

diesel, I had just told wahz that I plan on adding a pretty decent size jdsu leaps position monday.

So what % fall are you looking for...what do we hit on the upside first, then where do we fall to?

TIA

Sorry, should be this...

After a quick review here, I think we rise to 2120 over a few days, fall back to 2080 or so and get the 9ema, then rise to 2153...over the next 8-10 trading days.

After a quick review here, I think we rise to 2120 over a few days, fall back to 2180 or so and get the 9ema, then rise to 2153...over the next 8-10 trading days.

The funny thing is, a review of the boards for the past two weeks or more has shown that most people have been looking for a pullback, IT top, going short, etc, all the while claiming this can't continue with all the bullishness around. All they needed to do was look at a few posts around theirs and see that everyone was looking for that same pullback.

I'm still going to review everything closely over the weekend to see if I'm missing anything, or just look for other possibilities, but right now this looks good for more up after that quick fall to the 9ema. The main thing is, there's no bad path here...the longer we stay under 2153, the better 05 is IMO. Bears should be hoping we get to 2153 right away <g>.

http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=4366767

No nothing that says we selloff next week. To me, it looks like we just continue on towards 2153. I saw a few days ago something that suggested we may be able to make it above 2100 before we even pullback to the 9ema, so far that still looks possible. I guess at this point I'd just be expecting a pullback to the 9ema in the next several days, and then a surge to 2153. I still think we can get 2153 right about the day before thanksgiving, but maybe it'll go out a few more days. I'll check things out this weekend to see if I can find a way to fit that 2023 in my plan, but right now I don't even see that being hit again for a long, long time.

Sent By: mjk Date: 11/9/2004 9:55:20 AM

I see one possibility here that the 9ema isn't reached until after we've gotten about 2110-2120.

Posted by: mjk
In reply to: jjstingray who wrote msg# 36033
Date:11/5/2004 11:14:06 AM
Post #of 36410

The one thing is though, almost everyone's complaining about the bullishness and looking for tops, so that's really not that great of a bearish signal<g>.

As far as the P/C, that may put a stop to this for today, but I remember a week ago someone was posting how low the P/C was...I pointed out it looked just like April 17th 03, when the Nas started a massive two month rally.

I would not be surprised to see today's gap get filled, but we should continue higher the next few weeks, with the 9ema providing support.

edit: I expect 2153 to be hit right about the day before thanksgiving...still have my longer term target out there as well, 2368-2400 around end of Jan.

Zeev, we're getting your moonshot right now, and the internals are still fine. I think the problem has been that everyone was looking for the pullback before the big rise, and instead, we're just getting the big rise.

Posted by: mjk
In reply to: jjstingray who wrote msg# 36033
Date:11/5/2004 11:14:06 AM
Post #of 36373

The one thing is though, almost everyone's complaining about the bullishness and looking for tops, so that's really not that great of a bearish signal<g>.

As far as the P/C, that may put a stop to this for today, but I remember a week ago someone was posting how low the P/C was...I pointed out it looked just like April 17th 03, when the Nas started a massive two month rally.

I would not be surprised to see today's gap get filled, but we should continue higher the next few weeks, with the 9ema providing support.

edit: I expect 2153 to be hit right about the day before thanksgiving...still have my longer term target out there as well, 2368-2400 around end of Jan.

We'll see...I think we see 3000 at some point as well, but not necessarily in 05. That's good to have high hopes though...gives you something to root for <g>.

That's right in my target range, 2368-2400...nice.

diesel, I agree with all that, but I still can't see any hard dump happening...what I mean is, I can't even see that on the map yet. I still think we keep chugging along, drop to the 9ema at some point, but make it to 2153 without any significant drops...that 2023 area may just get left behind now. I was searching a bit last night for any other possibility and all I could come up with was moving sideways for 2 weeks (down a bit to the comp 20 day which would also get that 2023) before exploding up again. For that to have happened, I would have thought today and tomorrow would have been flat, with a close on the week around 2038 (flat week)...so unless Dell creates a big selloff tomorrow, I have to stick with the straight to 2153 plan. Also, any down or sideways movements now just make 05 better IMO. I've thought for a while that if we don't get this huge rise into Jan-Feb, but rather spend more time under 2153, even out to early 05, then the rest of 05 would be HUGE. So if I had a worst (short term) case, that would still be it...we run out of steam in the next couple weeks, spend another couple months moving sideways to down, get one last nice dip, then rocket in 05. But this rocket up move is following too well so far, so unless it starts to deviate, I have to stick with it...straight to 2153.

Sent By: mjk Date: 11/10/2004 4:38:50 PM

Mine neither, but I'll give it another day or two...I still think the sox will turn up big here soon. Tomorrow the 9ema should be around 2020, so IF we get it, it would take care of that 2023 area also. But I still have the possibility that the next few days are up, and the 9ema isn't touched for another week or more. Ultimately, I think we've got another 350 points up here, and the sox will lead.

I'd be very surprised if we're not at new year highs on the comp within a few days after thanksgiving at most. I'm still reviewing things as we go to see if there's any greater possibility that the big fall everyone's looking for will happen...I still don't see it.

Everyone's been screaming overbought and calling tops for a couple weeks now and all we've done is gone straight up. Now this consolidation is working off all that overbought with just a tiny drop in the comp. So let's see what the next week brings.

Sent By: mjk Date: 11/5/2004 8:34:35 AM

It's funny you should say that since I was thinking the same thing about the sox, and just sent something to wahz last night. Here it is below. I think the sox needs to start participating in a big way the next few weeks. I still like the 2000 area as great support, but a test of the 9ema should happen sometime but who knows when...actually it should provide support the next few weeks if my scenario that has us going straight to 2153 in 3 weeks works out. If we significantly drop for any reason (jobs today), I'll be disappointed if 2000 is given up badly again. I've thought the sox should outperform everything on this run into Jan-Feb and a comp 2368-2400 peak, and that it would do something like it did in the second half of 96. I've been targeting a comp/sox ratio of about 4, so with the comp at 2400, sox is 600, quite a move off its summer lows. Perhaps CSCO can provide more of a spark to the sox than create a sell off...I'll need that if any of this is to work out <g>. Bottom line is, I think this is what wahz calls a "melt up"...it defies all indicators and we just keep going higher, 2153 in 3 weeks, and just keep going into jan with some minor pauses...shorts will be toast IMO.

Posted by: mjk
In reply to: wahz who wrote msg# 19899
Date:10/22/2004 11:37:37 AM
Post #of 20719

That's what I thought would be a worst case scenario, something like 94...and the early dec low was a higher low than the summer lows...I agree that 1750 should not be taken from here. I mentioned something like this a couple months ago, that my worst case would have us basically drifting for another 4-6 months (from a couple months ago), similar to 94. If this happens, 05 becomes a monster IMO, with very few corrections, and mostly up throughout the year. As it stands now, if we rally hard to 2350 or so in early 05, I'd think we correct for a few months into May or so...if we drift now, that doesn't happen, and after Feb or so, we're straight up the rest of the year, probably towards 2500. All IMO.

What's this guy jeff saying now...no more 2900 stuff?

http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=3277143

shack, that's what I've been thinking all along, and that's exactly my target right now, 2368-2400 by about Feb. I also think we're getting a reinflation of the bubble, but why do you think that requires a bad 2 to 3 years from 2005 on? I'm thinking it's much more like the 33-37 period...up big in 33, correct in 34, up big in 35-36, bear resumes in 37. Could your count have even fit that period from 29-37?

http://www.amateur-investors.com/The_Stock_Market_Crash_of_1929.htm

Yeah, it's just what I use based on historical stuff I've studied...we could break it intraday, but there's a decent chance it holds on a closing basis all the way to 2153. Actually a pullback to it in another few days would make sense, but it will be much higher.

I just don't expect 2000 to be broken again, if it is, my thinking about this whole thing is off. Remember this, we're now almost 700 points off that tag of the 400sma.

http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=4399125

The one thing is though, almost everyone's complaining about the bullishness and looking for tops, so that's really not that great of a bearish signal<g>.

As far as the P/C, that may put a stop to this for today, but I remember a week ago someone was posting how low the P/C was...I pointed out it looked just like April 17th 03, when the Nas started a massive two month rally.

I would not be surprised to see today's gap get filled, but we should continue higher the next few weeks, with the 9ema providing support.

edit: I expect 2153 to be hit right about the day before thanksgiving...still have my longer term target out there as well, 2368-2400 around end of Jan.

So I guess it may turn out ok that I held on to my bullish scenario huh? <g>

Posted by: Steve
In reply to: mjk who wrote msg# 17809
Date:9/16/2004 11:43:17 AM
Post #of 20871

taking out 1450 is a mighty mighty mighty big if mjk. but i have posted a few times that on the odd chance that it happens the ndx goes straight to 1480-1500 in short order. since i have it as such a low prob event, i obviously dont think we see any of your upside targets being met either. dont be like Z and hang onto a scenario that is not likley to happen for too long or it will cost you money. you were tossing this super bull scenario around three months ago and we have had a lot more evidence of a slowing economy not to mention rapidly growing deficits and trade gaps not to mention lower lows in all indexes except the NYA.

Right, I think that SHOULD provide support for the next few weeks if we're getting that up move now which is what I've been favoring. A tag of it some time soon wouldn't be surprising at all.

You know the 2000 area is important to me...I didn't think we should break that by much once we got it, and so far the past two days, that's worked out. Freep and I exchanged some messages...

Sent By: mjk Date: 11/3/2004 4:36:02 PM

You're right, it seems most people are now looking for that year end rally...especially on these boards since zeev is calling for it (and after a clean election). But zeev is still calling for down first, as are several other "gurus", that's where we can diverge IMO. Also like I said, everyone will turn bearish way too soon...it's ok for everyone to be right every once in a while, and now's one of those times it may happen.

The 2000 area is real important to me right now, and I'm still happy with the day since we closed right around here...I just don't see us dropping below it much at all. A break up thru 2000 was supposed to lead straight to 2153 IMO (in about 3-4 weeks), even if we pause right around 2000 for up to a few days...so now we've been here for a couple days, so either we launch in the next day or two, or I'm wrong and get that drop some are looking for. I was hoping with that gap up well above 2000, that we'd fall back to it and close the gap, but then start that take off today and close strong. I was unhappy for a while there when it looked like we could really close weak, that would not have gone well with what I'm thinking...but now I'm going to give it another day or two and see if we can leave this area behind.

gnss up real nice off its lows...

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=GNSS,uu[e,a]daclyyay[dd][pc200!c50!d20,2!b200!b50!c20!c1...

I think we both understand how possible that is given how hugely undervalued this market is.

del

I agree with that...I think 2153 could be reached in as little as 3-4 weeks now. The dow 400sma as it turns out was a great bottom, just like in the 90's.

"what do you think of the Bush Administration's policy of making the World Health Organization get approval from the HHS (read: the Administration)"

I've got to plead ignorance on this one...get approval for what? Your post implies you don't agree with it and that the admin is doing something for its own benefit and not the benefit of citizens...so how does this help Bush's admin? I'm being serious as I really haven't followed this at all.

Ok well, two times could just be luck, three times and we'll have to say there may be some skill involved <g>.

So what is it for tomorrow?

del

I think more importantly, he didn't use violence to suppress his political opposition, he used it against Iraq's brutal dictator...so I don't think the definition fits there at all, but whatever.

Under the defintion in that post, I don't think the democrats could run anti-Bush commercials on TV and get away with it, or have televised debates, etc.

+/- 1 would have worked today <g>, nice.

I bet you can find fault with every elected official in Washington, but you've got to trade off some things...sad, but true. These two candidates in front of us suck, but those are our choices. I'd pick McCain over either of them any day.

"Although the special counsel to the Ethics Committee advised the Senate that Senators Glenn and McCain were not substantially involved, months of testimony revealed that all five senators had acted improperly in varying degrees. All of these senators, however, continued to proclaim that they were not involved in any wrongdoing, and were just following normal campaign funding practices.
In the end, the Senate Ethics Committee concluded that Senators Cranston, DeConcini, and Riegle had substantially interfered with the federal regulators' enforcement processes at the request of Charles Keating. In August 1991, the Ethics Committee recommended to the full Senate the censuring of Cranston for reprehensible conduct. The other four senators were noted for questionable conduct. Cranston had already decided not to seek re-election, citing medical problems."

"Nor do Kerry haters think logically"

True...they're on both sides. It just seems like a lot of people have dedicated quite a bit of their lives to hating Bush the past 4 years. So now they get their chance next week.

Just for the record here, I consider myself independent, and I don't really like either candidate, but will vote for one of them, then hope for a McCain/Giuliani ticket in 08...could it happen <g>?