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FRE is trying to spoil the HP party.
Their consolidated financials, not very pretty, were buried about 3 links away from home page. Talk about sweeping un under the rug.
http://www.freddiemac.com/investors/er/pdf/financial-statements_112007.pdf
Update on Christmas retail season
I know someone who provides warehouse services in metro NYC area for about 7-8 retail chains all traded on NYSE.
He told me tonight they all are discounting before black Friday and some are doing terrible but even the luxury retailers are going to take a hit on prfit margins.
Do you think FCX got some legs as part copper / part gold play or are all metals tarnished as equity markets slip rapidly until next FED rate cut.
I having trouble reloading financial/ retail short equity calls as fast as they lose value form 20% to 1% maintenance requirement.
I going to stop writing new short calls as soon as we pass below 1430 S&P. Falling another 5% fall from here will bring a rate cut induced reflex rally. In which day it occurs can not be foreseen which is oly thing that gives me caution.
RIMM looks interesting for a bottom
Personally, I think we going to have a rough Monday afternoon. They may try to run futures to chase the shorts be they know charts still broken and it is only a opportunity for better prices to open new short positions.
go back in your hole
http://timpanogos.wordpress.com/2007/10/17/hoax-quote-collections-quote-mining-hillary-clinton/
I was going to say go back in your hole slimeball but that would be insulting to slimeballs.
How the market moves can be modeled by some of these experiments.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7097267.stm
Bloomberg had James Mason from Drexel on radio on today's drive time talking about government investing in SIV crap and they are starting to get burned.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601170&refer=home&sid=aYE0AghQ5IUA
I would believe call writing to be a big factor coming into play if we are starting a corrective phase. The potential of having stocks in the financial sector being assigned away is not reasonable expectation for the foreseeable future.
In contrast, PUT buyers can always be snaked out of their profits with yesterday's quick rally.
With the recent downtrend, most calls written for NOV are going to expire worthless so these call writers will be going back to well for replacement DEC options assuming the status quo will hold.
In 2000-2002 time frame serial covered call writers made consistent income when the only other cash returns seen during that period were dividends payouts for most equites holders.
Last hour selloff was inverse of yesterday buying.
The amount of liquidity provided to the broker dealers by hte FED in last two months makes liquidity provided in the post 9/11 era recession era look like chump change
I guess the plunge protection team been meeting with Tony Soprano recently and they been demanding the "vig" from the brokerages firms the at the end of the each trading day.
It is pretty sad state indeed.
HBC reports premarket tomorrow.
The first of the British banks to report will either lead us way way down on multi billions losses or rally back up to the highs if they claim there no surprises in store going forward.
The title contains "worth" in it. It makes it quallfing for the thread.
How much time does $75 B bring you if the underlying SIV assets being bought by the backup fund are unsellable to the foreign buyers who are gun shy about buying more of the same old bad IOU's that got us here in the first place.
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/11/11/business/11bank.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin
The final determination if this plan is to succeed is if the ratings agencies sign off on it.
PS more from all the news thats fit to print
http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/business/business-hsbc-losses.html
I think their TV compercials touted the high rate of interest on MM funds.
In hind sight, you could have seen it coming to this when competitiors were not offering similar interest rates.
What were they thinking taking crazy risks in MM funds.
A great article but it goes on about a paragraph too long on how dire US situation is. Then he sums it up tersely in last paragraph that the only outcome is double digit treasury interest rates / deep prolonged recession. He or his editor must have met requirement for word count and wrapped it up quickly.
It is like reading horror novel and the last chapter is a very short describing the villain entering the scene with a mysterious bag of armaments. Then it is followed by a epilog of the homicide cops describing how no one left the room standing.
No one is going to bail out BSC since they didn't put in anything into the kitty to bail out LTCM in 90's which was a fraction dollar wise of todays problems.
How can MER and LEH pony up much money anyway since they have just marginally better unimpaired net tangible assets to debt ratios. Handing over any money to fix BSC related problems only puts them in a worst bind going forward to deal with they own bags of crap.
PS futs off 10 pts crossing under 10 month MA. Tomorrow afternoon going to be interesting trading volitility wise.
I am so twisted when I took by 8 year old daughter to Ellis Island and when she asked why she couldn't visit other half of island that was undeveloped, I simply explained to her that half of Ellis island was where we held recent immigrants in prison before we expelled them back to their homelands because of their ideas and beliefs we found unacceptable. A sort of Gitmo in NY harbor for Communists and anarchists.
I am of the age of the last of the baby boomers -- 52. During high school in the 69-73, I couldn't find work after school that illegals today would refuse to take.
I figure that like aj said that state and local workers would lose some retirement benefits. Being someone who will follow 10 years worth of early retirees on SS, I am not expecting much hope for SS providing as much proportionally then what is being offered now.
I see 1480 as 200 day MA. I assume 10 month MA is a couple of points lower.
We need some support in the near term or this bull market is over.
I think Iran is letting off the pressure in Iraq intentionally. US spending for war effort will slow down quickly so our economy will go into recession just like after Vietnam war, end of gold standard, inflation from oil price hikes, end of Russian Space race, retirement of WWII vets and Watergate scandal.
The similarities in how the market substituting housing bust, government deficits, weak dollar, Bush foriegn policy diasters and baby boomer retirement will behave today is uncanny. We are talking about multiyear sideways if government policies are accommodating
Your a pretty good guesser
Well speaking of rumors
My broker had had an officer in senior management brief them this morning and they said that the word is one if the large brokerage firms is going to go out of business and that another large money market fund is below 1.0 meaning your not going to get all your money back out.
I am not going to say what brokerage firm it is but you can get the idea of who it is and it is not Merrill.
Maybe neocon is not best example of group global warming denier or one who downplayer it but anyone denying global warming is doing so from a denial of the overwhelming facts. One would have to question what is their agenda especially from a governmental agency like the NWS. I wasn't expecting omission of 2 necessary data items from hundreds automatically pieces of data reported by NWS online site to point out significant deviations from average temperatures.
I understand the physical chemistry exceedingly well and the spectral absorbption properties of the by products of combustion of carbon based fuels by sunlight. CO2 and H20 absorb wavelengths in the infrared range much nore strongly then N2 or O2.
A whole set of postulates would flow from these facts but I have not read Al Gore's book or am I going to stand behind any environmentalist doom and gloom prophecies.
I am glad that you care enough to defend your personal views and no offense was meant or I have no agenda to debate with you. It is just my sense of humor.
More October weather data
CITY WEATHER OBSERVED NORMAL DEPART
..............................................................
Fargo MEAN 50.0 45.3 4.7
Duluth MN MEAN 44.4 41.6 2.8
Billings MT MEAN 50.2 48.1 2.1
Spokane WA MEAN 46.8 47.2 -0.4
Seattle WA MEAN 50.5 52.7 -2.2
Medford OR MEAN 53.1 51.1 2.0
Redding MEAN 60.5 63.2 -2.7
San Francisco MEAN 59.9 61.0 -1.1
Bakersfield MEAN 64.5 67.2 -2.7
San Diego MEAN 66.7 67.6 -0.9
LAs vegas MEAN 69.8 68.7 1.1
Tucson AZ MEAN 72.8 70.5 2.3
Grand JunctionCOMEAN 52.9 52.7 0.2
Elko NV MEAN 46.1 46.7 -0.6
Denver CO MEAN 53.5 51.0 2.5
Cheyenne WY MEAN 48.9 45.4 3.5
Dodge City KS MEAN 60.2 57.1 3.1
Albuquerque NM MEAN 59.8 57.3 2.5
Topeka KS MEAN 60.0 56.6 3.4
Houston TX MEAN 73.0 70.4 2.6
New orleans LA MEAN 72.1 70.0 2.1
Mobile AL MEAN 70.0 67.7 2.3
W Palm Beach MEAN 80.6 78.1 2.5
Dubuque IA MEAN 55.1 50.4 4.7
Madison WI MEAN 56.3 49.3 7.0
Chicago IL MEAN 59.0 52.1 6.9
Indy IN MEAN 62.1 54.6 7.5
Cincinnati OH MEAN 61.3 55.7 5.6
Louiville KY MEAN 65.9 58.5 7.4
Nashville TN MEAN 65.4 59.9 5.5
Ronoake VA MEAN 63.5 56.6 6.9
Raleigh NC MEAN 67.4 60.0 7.4
Norfolk VA MEAN 69.1 61.1 8.0
Philly PA MEAN 64.5 57.2 7.3
NYC NY MEAN 63.0 56.5 6.5
Boston MA MEAN 59.2 54.1 5.1
OT global warming from NWS data Concord, NH
New Hampshire is the New New Jersey <g>
http://www.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=gyx
I looked at 31 days of OCT data and they reported a average deviation of 6.9 degrees per day (-214/31 from heating degree days info) above the average temperature of 47.8 or 54.7 degrees.
First freezing temperature was Oct 15.
and they still needed their air conditioners as 5 cooling degree days for the month was reported
...THE CONCORD CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR OCTOBER 31 2007...
CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1971 TO 2000
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1871 TO 2007
WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST
VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR
NORMAL
.....................................................................
DEGREE DAYS
HEATING
YESTERDAY 17 23 -6 20
MONTH TO DATE 334 548 -214 502
SINCE SEP 1 477 760 -283 678
SINCE JUL 1 543 826 -283 726
COOLING
YESTERDAY 0 0 0 0
MONTH TO DATE 5 1 4 0
SINCE SEP 1 55 34 21 18
SINCE JAN 1 510 442 68 511
Bulls need to hope Cisco lifts us next week
I was looking at 2007 annual report nad they only get 45% of sales outside US ad Canada steady with 2006.
Cable settop boxes and and cable internet VOIP adapters which comprise a major part of the recent growth in their business lineup with the acquition of Scientific Atlanta.
You have to understand they don't stand much of a chance of major sales to cable executives outside the Roberts (Comcast) and Dolan (Cablevision) clans who dominate in the US cable market.
Search in annual report for "China" produces results of sentences that also contain the words "price competition" or "sales discounts".
As long as US economy shows positive GDP growth so will CSCO show earnings growth.
Future earnings guidance will be the tell all indicator how NAz bounces that day.
They still growing sales primarily from acquitions and devote a majority of net income to share repurchase to help reinflate P/E multiple so they can barter another acquition with stock rather then cash.
I am suprised no North Carolinians have rose up to defend the insult. <g>
My neighborhood's sugar maples have turned yellow but my pin oaks other maples look justlike summertime.
OT
It is Nov 1st and all the trees in my yard still have green leaves on them.
No hard freeze in the weather forecast for next 7 days.
I usually get done with leaf removal by Thanksgiving.
Is anyone else out there seeing this aspect or something similar RE global warming.
Only moves up in last 2 months have been in reaction or anticipation of FED rate cuts which they gladly provided to the nervous market.
Both of those possibilities have been taken of the table for the short term.
However Uncle Ben will act for the third time if the market pulls his strings hard enough.
Easy credit getting a 1/4 point rate cut today.
You are right. Crop yields are just slightly down due to NE drought. However, most of the midwest crop was mature by Sep 1st. The new genetically engineered corn is much quicker to harvest than the varities planted 20-30 years ago.
I think corn prices are going to go up since there has been below average rain in the key corn growing states.
http://drought.unl.edu/monitor/spi/2007/1sep07lg.gif
I haven't seen a unirrigated corn fields in NJ and eastern PA bearing any corn to be harvested. It is all 4-5' high brown stalks which IMO looks like it could be used for animal fodder at best. Some farmers have already cut it down to provide organic matter for next years crop.
MER reports tomorrow morning and if by some chance they get to put a positive spin on 4Q prospects we could go higher but I just can't see how they can pull it off.
Futs off 4 pts
and most NAz momos AAPL RIMM AMZN ISRG are down ah
We are getting that late 90's day trader quick trades back and forth long then short
My theory is we will peak about 3 months earlier in calender then in 2000. which would be near year end as financials pre-announce more balance sheet doggie do for 4Q.
aj
your not in one of the wild fire zones
Newark Star Ledger had 10 pages of foreclosure notices for 3 of the 20 counties in NJ.
These are either just a small pimple on the backside of the economy or if Citigroup warns for third quarter in a row in 1Q08 it is a sign of something more serious for the economy to deal with.
I don't know the answer, the banks are not saying how bad it is and I just we got to wait to find out.
Well you like this post even better
I was contacted by a third party computer maintenance company yesterday that just won a service contract with the Social Security Office to provide computer service starting Nov 1st.
Reading the paperwork to be filled out it seems that every employee I may send on these infrequent jobs in my area would become a Federal Employee and would need to complete background checks, fingerprints etc.
Holy smokes no wonder Federal employment was revised from negative to positive.
You are looking a many newly minted Federal Employees who would be doing very little work but would be double counted as private sector and public sector. I am sure this is going on across the board will all government agencies.
I was figuring out how to claim the employment numbers were full of crap without sound pretty stupid and now I have some idea how the Federal government is pumping up employment numbers going into election year.
TAKE HOME STORY IS WALL STREET FOUND A WAY TO GET SNAKE A 50 PT RATE REDUCTION AND RIGHT AFTER THE BANKS GOT THEIR BETTER MARGINS THE GOVERNMENT IS HELPING PUMPING THE JOBS NUMBERS TO FACILITATE THE MARKET GOING TO NEW HIGHS
In 2000, we had same concentration in largest cap NDX issues. Valuations were extreme as well.
This time around, the kool aid being handed out is that that the largest US multinational companies earn the majority of earnings outside the US where growth is stronger then US economy. Also, foreign earnings are translated into higher profits due to weak US dollar.
This year is first year in recent memory that we are importing an absolute smaller amount of imported goods. Asian industrial production if still growing at double digit rates much of it must be heading to other Asian countries or to internal consumption because it isn't headed here.
Tech earnings in late 90's were inflated with all types of sham sales especially with internet, networking, and telecom. When the Chinese are faced with admitting to slowing growth vs booking questionable sales to meet foreigners expectations for faster growing Chinese equities; they will follow the tech stock bubble accounting rules.
If foreign growth slows, US dollar will appreciate being the safest haven and US corporations will take double hit with lower foreign sales and weaker earnings due to currency translations of the stronger dollar.
The Chinese government regulatory changes will determine the correction in their market just like FED can effect ours.
The move up starting to look unstoppable as long as banking community pleads it is just a one time event RE 3Q writeoffs.
Only possible thing I see slowing economy is wary consumer continuing to put off non essential discretionary spending like they have since AUG. I been personally been hearing from a wide spectrum of business that sales are slow: dentists, plumbers and retailers for example besides housing and construction.
a ``multibillion dollar'' loss
Chump change to Uncle Ben and Co.
50 basis improvement in spread between money borrowed and money lent means $ 5 B more earnings for every $1 T handled by banks and broker dealers.
All they got to do is ensure they keep the dance going.
His comments on Asbury Park are right on. They just recently imploded a unfinished concrete skeleton low rise condo building originally started in 1980's to put up one of the mid rise larger condo projects he talks about. I doubt they will ever be completed.
None the less, single family homes still holding their value in most parts of the state. There will always be a divide between speculative investor properties and ones used as primary residencies especially in times of deep doodoo in housing market.
As we talk about housing bubble in US, it seems that other parts of the world, Uk and Australia for example, may have it a lot worse.
I think you have some knowledge on Chinese real estate market.
US market may be some sort of safe haven. As long as midwest employment and income growth is maintained, I see no housing bubble to speak of.
Europe is still near AUG lows and that turmoil has not headed here yrt.
Cheap dollar - expensive Yuan
I've been keeping mental price of your basic 17" LCD monitor. It has gone up from about $135-140 to $155-160 while the yuan has risen similar %.
Chinese goods are going to continue to rise as long as our dollar weakens.
PS latest gas price $ 2.39
PPS Economy in US is slowing. I talked to truck dealer who is terminating his realtionship with manufacturer because sales are so slow. He is laying of abot 1/2 his employees as he concentrates on other truck brand and more repair work.