Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
aj, well technically these are doji and their bullish implications have me worried. See how a similar candle signalled a strong continuation of the rally last October.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$COMPQ,uu[w,a]daclyyay[d20020510,20021210][pb50!b200!f][...
Or were there other factors at work there that I am missing?
I hope you're right, as too many other bearish things keep me slightly short here. In any case, I think best (i.e. worst <G>) case upside is limited to about 955 SPX, which is the convergence of the huge H&S going back to 1988 and the declining SR line from Oct. 2000.
Morning star doji on the COMP and NDX dailies, confirmed today.
COMP triple top
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$compq,uu[h,a]daclyyay[pb50!b200!f][vc60][iUb14!Lp14,3,3...
Aj, you may not believe in triple tops, but this one looks ugly. Three ominous topping candles, and divergences with volume (slightly higher highs with declining volume on successive peaks) and the NDX (which has made slightly lower highs with the same volume trends).
mlsoft
Well said. I have no intention of arguing with this market. I'm very glad to be flat here, and will wait for the trend to turn down before even thinking about increasing shorts. That will probably happen around mid-quarter when companies guide down so they can "beat" the numbers in June. I think I see a pattern here <g>
cannabis, RE INTC
Don't get too excited about the the numbers. Sure, they beat expectations by a little, but these are the same expectations that they took down at the mid-quarter update. In an absolute sense, the numbers look pretty poor. And the guidance of flat to down may have been a relief to some...but flat to down versus what? A crappy quarter, that's what! With a poor demand backdrop, no visibility, a down quarter year-on-year, and the stock selling at 34x eps, I wouldn't want to own this thing. BTW, I have no position in INTC and am flat, so no ax to grind.
Having said that, the reaction is pretty impressive. It's bullish when stocks go up in response to mediocre news. Maybe I should get a little long.
IBM gets the Ugly Chart of the Day award, with 2 consecutive big bearish engulfing candles after a shooting star top. Is there a name for this disgusting pattern?
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=ibm,uu[h,a]daclyyay[pb50!b200!f][vc60][iUb14!Lp14,3,3!Ll...
Nice call (so far) <g>. Week is not over yet, but COMP and NDX working on weekly bullish engulfing. I'm still using 1510 as a target for the COMP. If/when we get there, I'll be short with a stop just above the Dec. high...this economy is BAD, and the torrent of pre-announcements is about to begin...
If we are now in C, and C = A, that would set a target of 1510 on the Nasdaq for this move and give us a nice double top with the Dec. high to work off of.
Aj
It looks to me that there are descending triangles on the Nasdaq 60, 30, 15, and 10-minute charts. It seems a bit unusual to see the same pattern on all these timeframes. Would you attach any special significance to this, i.e. IYO would it magnify the bearish implications of this pattern?
keh59
I think this will work:
[today's high > 0.95 * yesteday's max(260,high)]
for within 5% of 52-week high. For within 15%, use 0.85 as a factor. Note the misspelling of "yesteday" - I think this is an error in StockCharts, so just enter it the way it is shown above. The syntax is correct, but you may want to run a test and sanity check to make sure the logic is also correct.
NDX / VXN at top of its BB with elevated stochastics. The setup looks an awful lot like summer 01, including the H&S. This may not be the top, but looks like a good place for at least a pullback.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$NDX:$VXN,uu[h,a]dallyyay[df][pd20,2!f][vc60][iUb14!Lp14...
Similar story with the OEX / VIX.
Cush
I am trying to scan for the crossover of [the price of stock relative to an index] with [the moving average of the price relative]. In other words, when the price relative is improving, as confirmed by a moving average crossover.
Help needed here.
I am trying to incorporate price relative (actually the moving average crossover of price relative) into a StockCharts scan. There is no predefined PR element or scan, and I could not find something in the list of "building blocks" that might be useful for building an advanced scan. I am new to the advanced scan interface, having just upgraded. Anyone have any suggestions? TIA for all replies.
Thanks. Nice resource...was unaware of it.
Augie (or anyone else who is familiar with StockCharts scans)
I am interested in incorporating price relative into a StockCharts scan, but there doesn't seem to be an easy way to do this. It is not predefined, and I could not find an index of elements that I could use to build a custom statement in the advanced interface. Any ideas? All suggestions would be greatly appreciated.
What the French meant was, they'll join if WE use chemical weapons and it wipes out the Iraqi army so there is absolutely no chance of them being hurt
EXPE downgraded by Legg Mason on valuation
Will hold a conference call at 11:00 that will be negative on hotel reservation industry.
Seperately, Merrill Lynch will have a tech strategy call this afternoon to discuss why tech spending is unlikely to rebound this year.
Oh, almost forgot, and QQQ max pain 24-25 still...we are at 26.5 now.
ajtj
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$COMPQ,uu[h,a]daclyyay[dc][pb50!b200!f][vc60][iUb14!Lp14...
Nasdaq was stopped today exactly at the 50% retracement from the 1521 Dec. high and 1253 low (= 1387). Also strong resistance at the declining SR line from the high and gap resistance, both at about 1400. Stochs overbought. Dangerous, but I think the highs may be in.
FR
Yes, with war seemingly unavoidable, I'm wondering what are the odds Saddam pulls a preemptive chemical/biological attack, either against our troops, or against Israel to provoke an Israeli response and rally the muslim zealots. It would seem to make sense from his point of view, rather than sitting in Baghdad waiting to be taken out. I don't hear any talking heads even mentioning this possibility, so I assume it would be a big surprise to the market.
Malyshek, re: CAH
If you don't mind me butting in, I just covered CAH short yesterday for a nice gain over 6 months. IMO, the fundamentals in this group remain poor, so I would stay away. But if you like the drug distributors, I would recommend you look at ABC or MCK, both of which are a bit cheaper and have similar LT growth rates.
ajtj
Congrats on the thread, and thanks for sharing your insights.
Nice hammer bottoms on the Dow, SPX, and OEX. The Dow comparison with the Feb. low looks particularly striking, given the position of the ADX, no?
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$dji,uu[h,a]daclyyay[dc][pb50!b200!f][vc60][iUb14!Lp14,3...
steviee
Disintermediation is a growing trend in travel. Hotels and airlines are serious about cutting out the middlemen. Margins will come under pressure for a long time, as the likes of EXPE and ROOM will have to compete not only with other online agents, but with their suppliers as well.
IPG
I am long from 7.90 for a DCB only. Business is terrible, but they have new management, stock is oversold with some bottoming signs, the convert relieves some liquidity concerns, and the pending sale of their research arm should be a catalyst. FWIW, stock also got upgraded today by (I think) Salomon Smith Barney.
Tax policy and economic stimulus
Tax cuts, including temporary ones in the form of one-time tax rebates, are ineffective in stimulating the economy unless they are accompanied by reductions in government spending. With one hand, we put more money into the hands of some individuals while at the same time requiring that someone else save more (i.e. spend less) to make up for the deficit.
Tax rates are too high. The tax bite as a percent of GDP is at the highest level in the history of the country, except for a brief period during WWII, and we are still running deficits. The problem is that our government simply spends too much money.
The one benefit of cutting tax rates is that it exerts pressure on government to reduce spending, as huge deficits are politically unpalatable. This is an argument that Milton Friedman has made. Also, to the extent that we can simplify the tax code in the process, it is a good thing. We spend something like 2% of GDP simply to comply with the tax code (to hire the army of accountants and lawyers necessary to navigate the labyrinth), and this is money down a rat hole.
Joe Stocks
The point you make about all corporate profits being double taxed is valid, and is ignored in most serious debate about about the issue.
But you can't simply eliminate corporate taxes, as this would create a huge loophole whereby individuals could incorporate and use pre-tax dollars to offset personal expenses,
Nor can you give coporations a tax credit for dividends paid (as some here have suggested), as many of these dividends go to tax exempt entities, and this would allow some profits to escape taxation altogether. Also, it ignores the issue of double taxation of profits that are not paid out in dividends.
The solution is to raise coporate taxes to the personal level, and use corporate taxes paid to create a proportional tax credit for all shareholders that could then be used to offset dividends, capital gains, and even ordinary income. I'd also be in favor of raising taxes on dividends and capital gains to ordinary income rates, within the context of a flatter tax structure.
Finger painting....and you know which finger I am talking about.
They are shameless.
LLL interesting trade here.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=lll,uu[h,a]daclyyay[dc][pb50!b200!f][vc60][iUb14!Lp14,3,...
Stock oversold, and nice bottom candle confirmed by today's white stick. Also, the company reaffirmed guidance after the close:
L-3 Communications Confirms 2003 Guidance -- Explosive Detection Systems Business Developing in Line with Expectations --
Wednesday February 19, 4:12 pm ET
NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Feb. 19, 2003--L-3 Communications (NYSE:LLL - News) announced today that it continues to expect that it will achieve its goal of 20% annual growth for sales and earnings, including 8% to 10% growth excluding acquisitions, in 2003.
Including acquisitions that the company completed through December 31, 2002, the company expects total sales growth in 2003 of over 16%, operating income growth of about 25%, and 2003 diluted earnings per share of between $2.67 and $2.72. The company also continues to project free cash flow generation of approximately $285 million for 2003.
The company's guidance is based on the continued strong expected performance across its four business segments. The company noted that its assumptions for sales of explosive detection systems (EDS) in 2003 remain unchanged. In its plan for 2003, L-3 had assumed that the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) would likely order a smaller number of systems versus 2002 because a significant number of EDS systems had already been ordered last year. The Congressional Omnibus Conference Report for 2003 confirms L-3's assumptions because it has funded procurement of new EDS systems for $174.5 million and research and development for an additional $110.2 million.
Included in its 2003 guidance, the company has projected EDS sales for the year of approximately $175 million. These sales include the shipment of the remaining systems ordered in 2002, additional expected 2003 purchases of machines by the TSA with a portion of their current 2003 budget, recurring maintenance and upgrade services revenues, and anticipated international sales. The company has already signed a key international order for airport security systems, including EDS products, with Singapore.
L-3 Communications total Security Systems business, which includes its EDS systems as well as Level 1 baggage screening products and cargo security screening systems, is expected to generate less than 5% of the company's total sales in 2003.
Impressive paint job on the close to get the Dow back to 8000.
VRTS
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=VRTS,uu[h,a]daclyyay[dd][pb50!b200!f][vc60][iUb14!Lp14,3...
Broke down out of a descending triangle, but now back in. If it breaks the quadruple (?) top at 20.5 it is headed to 30. Fundamentals in the storage sector look pretty good this quarter, at least judging by what I know of EMC. Also, a possible inverted H&S bottom...if you squint hard enough <g>.
mlsoft
.....yes, and the asset inflation you cite is only the tip of the iceberg, as those inflated assets were leveraged to create a mountain of debt. Total market has quadrupled over the past 15 years, and mortgage debt is up something like 9-fold over the past decade. It's relatively easy to deflate the stock market, but the legacy of debt overhang will take a decade or more to unwind. Meanwhile, what happens to consumer demand and capital spending?
Semi equipment comments
From a Soundview report yesterday. They must be joking.
"We believe the semiconductor capital equipment stocks are unusually good
bargains at their current prices, especially in the aftermath of Applied
Materials' recent indications of lower than expected order growth. We believe
valuations are compelling relative to their trading history, as well as
relative to the stocks of their customers or their customers' customers. We
believe the bellwether issue of the space - Applied Materials - is more
attractive than Novellus Systems."
mlsoft
What is a grub?
TYC has a large ascending triangle that measures to about 25. I don't think it will go up much either, for both company specific and market related reasons. But here is the chart anyway:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=tyc,uu[h,a]daclyyay[dc][pb50!b200!f][vc60][iUb14!Lp14,3,....
In edit, maybe not, looks like it broke to the downside. Call it a triple top then.
ajtj or anyone else
Your opinion please...one of the scenarios I'm thinking about is a minor bottom right around 1320, then a bounce of max 100 points to the top of what would be a descending triangle, or perhaps stopping at the 200 day SMA.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$COMPQ,uu[h,a]daclyyay[dc][pb50!b200!f][vc60][iUb14!Lp14...
(Use your imagination, as I haven't upgraded my stockcharts subscription yet and can't post annotations). This would be supported by short-term sentiment like the P/C and VIX and oversold stos, the imperfect inverted hammer today, and the general level of bearishness. It would also set us up nicely for a breach of that triple bottom at 1319-27, or whatever it is, and a retest of the October lows, as the triangle measures almost to there.
Do you think this has any validity?
calzone
I increased my AMZN short by 1/3 at 22.55 today. I will use a mental stop of today's high. My target depends on tomorrow's action. We have a nice gravestone doji in progress. If we get it, and if we get confirmation tomorrow (either a big red candle or a gap down), I will look to cover at the 200 day SMA, currently at 17.89. Otherwise, I'll probably hope to take a small profit by covering this traunch at around 20.50 and retain the original core short position.
AMZN call
They guided for the Q in line on eps and slightly above on revs, and $0.27 vs. $0.24 consensus for the year. I don't think this will be enough, and expect the stock to trend down from here. Will add to short position on any strength tomorrow.
Nice bottoming candle on the COMPQ tonight
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$COMPQ,uu[h,a]daclyyay[dc][pb50!b200!f][vc60][iUb14!Lp14...
Setting up for an inverted hammer or ladder bottom or concealing baby swallows, depending on confirmation. 3 black crows, MAs, and gap resistance all seem to target about 1400-1410 before a turn back down.
mlsoft, re: NVLS and KLAC
Yes, and more gaps below to fill, plus big bearish engulfing candles on the weekly charts.
mlsoft
I believe INTC will guide down tonight on both revenues and capex.