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RARE now has 2 FDA-approved drugs: Mepsevii and Crysvita
Q-1/2018 reported cash of $571mn, providing a runway thru the end of 2018.
They sold their priority review voucher and this one-timer is the reason for Q-1 profitability.
RARE may need another equity offering if Crysvita launch goes poorly.
KRYS Summer/18 could be a valuation inflection point
Lead program combines a previously approved viral vector and a gene validated by clinical trial in another indication.
KRYS will begin a study 5/18 to ascertain the effectiveness of this treatment in Epidermolysis Bulbosa.
Presently, EB patients spend as much as 200K a year on bandages and dressing.
Assuming the company can treat 2100 patients @ 150K / year and 14x EBITDA, MC coud reach $4B and $ 300 pps.
The effectiveness of the treatment could be evident as early as the summer months.
ABEO also has a drug in development for EB; and, they are further along in the development process.
VEND is an OTCQB company that sells frozen yogurt robots with a side of passive income franchise dream.
Each robot sells for $45K; and, VEND will eventually receive 12% royalty on froyo sales.
VEND stock was hyped early in 2018 when it announced that the froyo robots could accept payments in bitcoin.
Despite the hype, the company has entered significant franchise agreements. Dade, Los Angeles and Orange counties are now under contract along with the territory of Australia. If everything goes smoothly, the net income from the associated robot net income could approach $20mn for 2018 with reported revenue beginning in the June Q.
After that, the franchisee experience will begin and this era of passive income fantasy will yield whatever reality may come.
SHAK Q-1/2018 SSS grew 1.7% causing an out-sized squeeze to ensue
Investors are excited that the company owns 95 franchises and expects to own 200 at the end of 2020.
CMG, SBUX & TXRH command a 15x multiple on EV/EBITDA.
At a EBITDA margin of 12%, this multiple on the projected 200 stores brings us a MC of $1.15B or $30 pps
Watch technicals for a shorting opty if the market turns bearish.
CCXI 's Avaxopan is a potentially lucrative treatment for 3 rare kidney diseases.
All together, these rare conditions could reach a patient population of 40 - 100 K in either the U.S. or Europe.
In Europe, CCXI would only gain royalties from GNHAY (Vifor's)
In the U.S., CCXI would market the drug for itself.
CCXI has a cash runway until late 2019: but, there is a small possibilty that the company could become profitable w/o future dilution.
On the downside, there is a long way to fall if there are setbacks. As of 5/18 CCXI has MC = ~$500mn with ~$150mn in the bank
TNXP is presently in a Ph3 study of their lead treatment for military PTSD-related symptoms (nightmares and insomnia)
Tonmya is a sublingual intended to block an adrenergic receptor associated with nightmares. In Ph2, it showed a dose response relationship but did not meet the primary endpoint.
A significant side-effect of Tonmya is severe oral numbness
The active ingredient for Tonmya is also available in a generic pill.
Tonmya is also entering a Ph2 study for agitation in Alzheimer disease, where there are no competing treatments. The problem here is that the tongue/oral numbness side effect may derail its commercial viability.
With the company's recently announced $75mn-secondary, TNXP has a cash runway into the middle of 2020.
CRTO is a French digital marketing company combining customer acquisition algos, dynamic customer re-targeting, audience matching and real-time bidding platforms.
CRTO maintains one of the largest data sets focused on identity, interest and measurement.
Q-1/18: FCF grew 224% to $52mn and an earnings beat of 0.14 per share. This included stronger than expected currency tailwind.
The second Q is seasonally weak.
The EU many enact restrictive policies against on-line data collection.
CRTO's goal for 2018 is to change its focus to large and and mid-market clients while developing a scalable self-service platform for smaller mid-market clients
Competition primarily consists of the walled-gardens of GOOGL, AMZN & FB. Increasing regulation on these may help CRTO.
TFECY ( OSLO Exchange: THIN) may also benefit from increasing regulations on the American walled gardens.
Not me, I'm not as good of a trend follower as you. I play the turns.
FTR has seen recent improvement in consumer revenue and customer churn.
Q1/2018: acheived first net income Q since 2014
After eliminating their dividend at the start of 2018, the key metric for progress toward a turnaround might be consistent FCF.
Nice. I've never looked into this one.
INSP had rev growth of 74% in 2017
Recent IPO targets sleep apnea market.
markets a medical device that monitors breathing patterns and delivers nerve stimulation to maintain open airways. The device consists of a remote control and 3 implantable components including a sensing lead, stimulator and stimulation lead.
1/3 of those with CPAP machines are noncompliant. 70% of those are eligible for the INSP solution.
5/17 Company is richly valued at 14x sales.
Public company RMD is competition and potential acquirer.
I don't know the details; but, I HEAR it has something to do with a gaming fad.
ARWR recently refined its pipeline by clarifying that its preclinical Aro-Lung1 program is a cystic Fibrosis treatment.
Partnered program with AMGN may gnerate a progress milestone payment in 2018.
raised cash EOY/17 to bring cash to ~$100mn. At present burn rate, this would last midway into 2019.
There's really not much to see here at this point.
UEC has two mines that could be put into production within 7 months of Uranium prices reaching $40/lb.
The Palagana Mine in South Texas has an AISC $30/lb. It would take no more than 3 months to put this mine back in production.
Its other mine in Texas that could begin production within 7 months of the Uranium price acheiving $40/lb
UEC just purchased another fully licensed mine in the Powder River Basin of Wyoming with an all stock transaction.
As of 4/18, UEC has $15mn in cash and a burn of $900K per month.
EGO trades at <.25 Price to Book
Profits will be negligible until the mill at Kisladag is completed. This is projected to happen Q-3/2021 at which point production will nearly double
The issue is whether they can fund operations until then w/o a capital raise.
The most recent report clarified their cash runway EOY/2018. They project cash will equal $323mn with a $250mn revolver.
EGO will likely trade in a price range until it becomes clear whether they will have to raise capital.
TSE announced record net income in Q-1/2018.
TSE remains relatively undiscovered by analysts.
It was spun out of Dow in 2010.
The outlook is positive because the styrene/polystyrene plant build-out is mostly done and there will be no significant competition from China until 2020.
Yield is 2%. If the economy continues to perform, there is room for an increase.
I doubt it.
They are effectively a subsidiary of SMG. As I recall, most of whatever profits they would make flow there. There's an old SA piece that explained the relationship; but, it's behind a paywall now I think.
You might consider putting ONCYF on your watch list.
PRTK (update)
raised capital 2x so far in 2018, further depressing the stock price
raised $50mn with a secondary offering 1/18
raised raised $140mn plus an option for an additional $25 with a senior debt issuance 4/18
There is one additional factor that may enhance omadacycline's chances for approval in October. Unlike other broad spectrum antibiotics, treated patients do not get infected with C-dif and do not suffer from diarrhea.
NVAX may become an EOY tax loss candidate.
raised $50mn in a 4/12/18 offering at 1.65/sh and now has > $220mn in the bank.
Lead program is their RSV vaccine. RSV has a TAM of $5B. Mothers are immunized to prevent infection of infants.
Q-1/2019 is the expected time for RSV vaccine interim analysis.
Ph1 nanoflu program addresses the problem of antigenic drift inherent in the production of currently approved flu vaccines.
The egg-based flu vaccine presently in use only protects against 30% of flu virus strains in any given season and due to antigenic drift only has ~8% efficacy. On a personal level, that makes getting vaccinated for flu a stupid decision.
The TAM for improved flu vaccine technology is $5B.
$5 2020 calls are cheap using a limit order.
XLRN has two mid-year Ph3 read-outs:
* Myeloplastic syndrome
* beta-Thalassemia
Lead compound is a first-in-class treatment for rare blood disorders being co-developed with CELG.
5/1/18 received fast track status to treat muscular dystrophy of the face scapula & upper arms
Edward White, a tipranks 5-star analyst from Wainwright recently reiterated a buy.
Cash runway will get XLRN into 2021.
NXPI has fallen on the expectation that the take-over by QCOM is busted.
As of 5/18, there is still a small possibility that it would go thru at $127.50/share
Historically, NXPI had firm support at 7.5-8x forward EBITDA. This would be $75/share today.
NXPI will be eligible for a $2B break fee if the combination does not occur.
If the break fee is used to buy back shares, ~%5 of the float could be absorbed and EPS would rise accordingly.
NXPI is a good business with potential for 10-12% EPS growth for the next 10 years. It is the #1 Auto Semiconductor Vendor.
OVID has two Ph2 studies to read out in 2018
Data for its treatment for Angelman's syndrome is expected Q-3/2018.
Data for rare epileptic encephalopathies (aka Dravets Syndrome) will be read out H-2/2018.
The compound for Angelmans (OV-101) is licensed from Lundbeck who took it all the way thru Ph3 for insomnia, then decided it was not commercially viable.
The compound for Dravets is licensed from Takeda ex-Asia.
Both treatments could face stiff competition if approved. Also, there is a pre-clinical gene therapy (GT) for Angelman's that could render OV-101 obsolete.
Cash runway is deep into 2019.
This a stock to stalk short on promising data read-outs.
KPTI read out Ph2b results that will warrant an NDA filing for selexinor, its treatment for penta-refractory multiple myeloma (MM)
The TAM for this treatment could produce up to $500mn in sales. MM is the third most common blood cancer in the U.S.
Selexinor's market advantage is that it is an oral treatment competing against for-the-most-part less safe treatments.
After these results, the company released plans to issue a $125mn stock offering.
I've been buying RVNC the last couple days.
My two primary reasons:
1) Dew does the best due diligence on biotechs that I'm aware of. He is seldom wrong in the long run.
2) My technical array is indicating that this pullback is about to turn.
AMRN. I just took 1/8 of the position I hope to eventually have. This morning's earnings were pretty good and the coming Ph3 will prolly be transformational. The AMRN board on IHUB is a good read.
Thanks for elaborating.
Pivot's precision has made me some money; but, I realize I have to be in front of the twitter feed at the time he posts for it to do much good.
I appreciate Bama's Sunday chart display that you turned me on to. While I have been watching, he has been wrong more than right. I believe this trader provides a missing element that Bama would benefit from:
UUUU is the #1 Vanadium producer in the U.S.
2013 was the last year they produced vanadium pentoxide. They are evaluating plans to produce the vanadium pentoxide again.
China is pioneering the use of Vanadium Flow Batteries for energy storage. These efforts are creating worldwide vanadium pentoxide shortage.
The advantage of vanadium flow batteries is that they can be charged and discharged at the same time, making them a better option for storing solar and wind energy.
Well wrink, you're lucky to be an agreeable extrovert. It's an easier way to go thru life. I'm a disagreeable introvert and hardly ever trust the opinion of others. I don't have a network and now that I'm 'mature', I understand that I'm unlikely to have one. So, this conversation is good for me. It confirms that I should leave pinks alone.
I'm also stubborn. That's why I have to give myself both a time and price stop on leveraged ETFs. I'm pretty sure silver will have to close below 14.50/oz on volume for the USLV trade to go wrong. At that point, I would have ruined a month of trading. But, I've watched RHBs with higher volume for years and they work well with silver. The trade will be in trouble if SLV starts to ride the lower BB without closing below it for more than a day or two. I learned that from Ira Epstein. I watch his youtube channel at least a couple times a week. You might enjoy it:
I've been trading CLDX with my own variation of your leaking and adding strategy.
My 3 reasons for entering the trade were:
1) Knowing they have a healthy cash runway
2) Knowing they have Ph2 combo results due out this summer
3) Liking the price action on April 20.
I like to see your strategy with pinks unfold. I've especially appreciated seeing your leaking and adding strategy. I've been hoping I could grasp the reason(s) for your decisions well enough to make a trade myself. It's a different paradigm. Have you ever made a checklist of factors that influence you to buy a pink at a particular time?
I have at least two-reasons for any trade I take.
Today, I followed you into USLV with 1/3 position. My 3 reasons were:
1) High volume red hollow bodies (RHBs) are a high % indication that a bottom is near. I prefer high volume RHBs to higher volume hammers.
2) I could make a plan to scale in all the way down to a worst case scenario SLV 14.50 that I would be comfortable holding until I at least break even with the USLV. Given the volatility of Ag, there is little doubt that I will lose.
3) I have confidence in your trading. If I get a better starter than you were so generous to reveal, I highly doubt I will lose.
BTW, I started at 9.56
ETM with the CBS radio acquisition is the #2 radio operator in the US
If it can reinvigorate the neglected CBS radio business, there may be upside
Combined merger-adjusted cash flow = ~$138mn.
If you assume that the CBS radio contribution to this figure is understated, this company may be a buy going into mid-term election revenues.
Look at technicals EOY 2018. SeekingAlpha author believes company pps could approach $13
IQ (update)
posted its first earnings not long after 3/18 IPO
YOY rev growth = 57%. Margin increased by 12%
guided for 42-48% growth next Q. This may be sandbagged given Q-1 performance
Assuming IQ can hold 45% growth for a whole year, it only trades at 3.2x forward revs. NFLX trades at 8.7x forward revs.
MC = $12.5B
HRTX may have the best CEO in small-cap biotech.
Recent Ph3 results fro post-operative pain set it up for FDA approval and opioid-sparing status
PDUFA for post operative pain should be set for mid-2019.
CINV franchise is still growing. TSRO will stop promoting competing treatment, due to safety issues.
EOY/17 Cash = $172.4mn with AR = $41.8mn The high AR was due to a lack of J-code for CINV franchise.
Since EOY/17, HRTX acquired the J-code and raised $169mn in an offering.
ENPH 's IQ brand integrated solar energy system has been gaining traction, but it seems like a battleground stock.
Bulls note that gross margins are holding firm at 23% in a competitive environment
Bulls argue that TAM increases with new partnerships and this will translate to Rev. growth as it as for competitor SEDG
Bears argue that SPWR has integrated SEDG inverters and that this product is considered higher quality than the ENPH IQ offering.
Bears argue that ENPH will suffer from component shortages in 2018 due to supply chain deficiencies.
Bears argue that the Sage division of ABB will be competing for market share against the SPWR-SEDG product.
HLX Q1/2018 EBITDA was up 89% YOY
Backlog = $1.5B with $426mn scheduled for completion in 2018
CRBP is a high risk play on its fast track synthetic cannabinoid chronic inflammation treatment.
The lead indication has orphan status for systemic sclerosis (~ 90,00 patients)
12-month data for this indication will be read out 5/18. Full Ph3 data is not expected until 2020.
The compound is also in Ph2 in: 1) dermatomyositis 2) cystic fibrosis.
Cash will provide a runway into 2019. CRBP will likely take advantage of any positive data to raise capital.
The cannabinoids have been shown repeatedly to work as part of the entourage effect. I believe single a synthetic cannabinoid will always be worth less than a natural spectrum of cannabinoids.
This stock is likely a scam.
NSU had a significant increase in Cu & Zn production in Q1/2018.
If this is a trend, 2018 production guidance will be beaten by a large margin
Zinc production trend is reason for optimism. Copper trends are less clear
Cash increased by 20% Q2Q to $149.6mn. EOY Cash of ~$225mn would stabilize the company's future plans at Timok. NSU needs $700mn to build that mine.
Projected mine life at Bisha will end 2021. This Q's results seem to indicate the potential for expanding this mine life.
Watch Q2 for discussion of Bisha mine life.
NTLA is differentiated from other leading public CRSPR companies by its nanoparticle delivery system.
partnered with NVS to gain access to nanoparticle delivery. An advantage of this system is that AAV mfrng may be prone to shortages and bottlenecks.
Another advantage of nanoparticle delivery is the potential unknown of whether the human body will develop antibodies in response to AAV.
Should we be impressed that NTLA is conducting in vivo studies in mice an rats? The best trading strategy is to buy NTLA when there is bad publicity about AAV.
Cash = $341mn on 12/31/17 providing a runway into 2020.
NTLA is mired in a patent battle with EDIT.
EYPT is the former pSivida
EYPT was after pSivida acquired Icon and entered into a financial agreement for debt and equity with EW Healthcare
PDUFA for Yutiq is 11/5/18. Yutiq is a treatment for noninfectious posterior uveitis
I would not hold Yutiq close to the PDUFA date. Ph3 results are questionable. Treatment group experienced increased IOP compared to sham. 12% experienced IOP of greater than 11.9 mm Hg while sham was only ~4%
There will be an earnings cc on 5/8/18.