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I don't think it effects it that much. Current util .77 my prediction 1.2 once movies are freed up. Not that illogical really.
Illogical is someone who claims they are long shares and spends hours posting negative comments about a company.
I think the util rate will be 1.2 ish and this will make them cash flow neutral. The AVERAGE ticket price is 9.5, plus sub plans are more expensive now.
Why don't you stick you neck on the line and make a prediction too?
Why don't you have a guess at what you think the util rate will be for the 1st 1/4 of 2019 assuming no showings are with-held
Please factor in that option 1 is a curated model but I'd like to see you guess for all three sub options combined
100 bucks says i get closer to the correct util with my estimate
I've told you I think the util rate will be low enough to make them cash flow neutral. My opinion has not changed
The other poster was making a claim the util rate was artificially low because movies are being withheld (I personally don't think it matters to much). I was just asking if they thought it was a fudged number what THEY thought the real util rate.
I'm waiting for someone to turn around and say 3!!
What do you think the utilisation rate will be with 3 movies a month (remember the numbers are skewed currently to include all the unlimited plans)
To lose the remaining convertible notes maybe
I think the utilisation rate will be low enough that the subscription fees make them cash flow neutral. I can't really spell it out any other way. Your views are different and you think a bunch of heavy users will come back and blow the util rate up higher.
HMNY did make that statement but MP have also said they won't be taking any more funding. Again, my opinion is that they won't need any funding due to the a neutral Cash flow model.
I don't expect they will need funding as the new models will make them cash flow neutral on subs. In terms of your other questions, my original statement covers them all. We differ in our view and that is fine.
I'm comfortable with the risk I have owning these shares.
I guess is where we differ in opinion.
SELECT -(9.95 / 14.95) This is going to be a curated list of films only showing at select times. I expect MP will strike deals with theatres for discounted tickets to push subs to midweek/day times showings. Worst case MP can limit availability and push subs to existing discount days like $5 Tuesdays.
ALL ACCESS/RED CARPET (14.95/24.95)-These options are going head to head with AMC AList. There is no question that AMC provides way better value, 3 a week vs 3 a month for virtually the same price. I expect this has and will continue to draw the heavy movie goers to AMC. This is a positive for MP and what they need for their business model to work. There is space for both A-list and MP to co-exist with MP picking up the casual moviegoer.
The average cost of a movie ticket is around $9.50 so of course if each sub utilises their full quota then the business can't survive. However, MP have data from when they had the unlimited plan and know exactly what the average consumption rate is if you exclude the heavy users.
This is one of the reasons I stay long and believe MP will not only survive but also flourish.
For me the biggest risk is not if MP will deliver or not, it's whether as a current shareholder I will get to see the benefits. That is on Ted and Mitch. I'm probably in the minority here but don't think either of them are crooks. I don't think they set out to strike a deal with toxic funders (HB) so they could short the shares etc etc. The business grew too quickly and they made mistake by not cutting back the service they were offering earlier. The first R/S (which diluted my ownership too) didn't work because they were bleeding cash at an exceptional rate. They thought they would be able to use the ATM without pushing down the share price too much but the market/shareholders lost confidence and the shorters pounced. They were close to bankruptcy so had to continue to dilute.
Only time will tell if I'm right or not but in the meantime I'll happily stay long and will look to add on any extreme weakness.
Yes they are right now. The new sub models (option 2 + 3) 'claim' they won't do this
we all know MP restrict shows for certain subsrcibers but it's nothing to do with AMC
AMC can't cut them off, the service uses a mastercard. They would have to stop accepting mastercard to stop MP subs using the service
Please borrow my shares and short, you can buy them pack cheaper by the end of the year.
I didn't miss that either but thanks for re-posting
I'll stay long and as always you're welcome to borrow them to short.
they have proven to drive traffic to theatres sister.
I believe the sub model will work. Happy to lend you my shares if you want to short?
the same reason someone buys a gym membership and doesn't use it.
if you don't believe in a subscription model why did you buy shares in the first place?
btw - HMNY is a lot more now with all subsidiaries it has
it's a plurality vote so makes no difference how we vote
5 candidates, 5 positions.
They only need one vote each to get the role
What part of my statement isn't clear to you?
It is out of the control of HMNY unless they fully redeem the notes. The investor can prepay the notes at anytime and then convert.
https://www.entrepreneur.com/article/324430
New article based on an old interview. I don't think the content has been posted before.
Notes are still be converted
As of November 9, 2018, there were 1,612,561,916 shares of common stock, with $.01 par value per share, outstanding.
As of the record date (05-dec-2018), 1,668,207,926 shares of our common stock were outstanding
Rubbish. They need shareholders approval. They spent the last 2 months trying to get it.
Useless link unrelated to nasdaq or otc.
More lies. They need approval from share holders regardless of the exchange they are on for a r/s
Million = 1 million
Millions = greater than 2 million
No proof they have lost 2 million so just your opinion
So just speculation and you're entitled to your opinion.
Post a link showing millions of subs lost? If not they you state it's your opinion
I read and understand too old man
No ATM open
Notes are convertible at .02
Tell me why someone would convert a note at more than the market price
still talking about the non-existing dilution?
The business model as always been about the utilisation rate, it's not different now. If they keep it below 1 a month then this will work regardless of ticket price.
plus the inclusion of different formats for some plans
You can close your short in a few hours
Of course they are new. It's pretty clear how they differ from the old plan
So not short then? Thanks for clarifying
What level are you shorting at then?
It's better than not trying and burning 20mil a month
Didn't like the new plans?
New plans are goid but I like this statement a lot
As those plans are being hatched, Lowe said MoviePass has opted not to take on any more funding from Helios.
“We know this is going to take a long time, but from a financial standpoint, from a team standpoint, we’re committed to taking the long-haul marathon approach,” he said. “Our big goal over the last few months was to not put a drain on Helios’ funding.”
Why not reply to him in twitter or stock twit? @bvisse