Helios and Matheson Analytics Inc (HMNY)

[chereb19]

I guess is where we differ in opinion.

SELECT -(9.95 / 14.95) This is going to be a curated list of films only showing at select times. I expect MP will strike deals with theatres for discounted tickets to push subs to midweek/day times showings. Worst case MP can limit availability and push subs to existing discount days like $5 Tuesdays.

ALL ACCESS/RED CARPET (14.95/24.95)-These options are going head to head with AMC AList. There is no question that AMC provides way better value, 3 a week vs 3 a month for virtually the same price. I expect this has and will continue to draw the heavy movie goers to AMC. This is a positive for MP and what they need for their business model to work. There is space for both A-list and MP to co-exist with MP picking up the casual moviegoer.

The average cost of a movie ticket is around $9.50 so of course if each sub utilises their full quota then the business can't survive. However, MP have data from when they had the unlimited plan and know exactly what the average consumption rate is if you exclude the heavy users.

This is one of the reasons I stay long and believe MP will not only survive but also flourish.

For me the biggest risk is not if MP will deliver or not, it's whether as a current shareholder I will get to see the benefits. That is on Ted and Mitch. I'm probably in the minority here but don't think either of them are crooks. I don't think they set out to strike a deal with toxic funders (HB) so they could short the shares etc etc. The business grew too quickly and they made mistake by not cutting back the service they were offering earlier. The first R/S (which diluted my ownership too) didn't work because they were bleeding cash at an exceptional rate. They thought they would be able to use the ATM without pushing down the share price too much but the market/shareholders lost confidence and the shorters pounced. They were close to bankruptcy so had to continue to dilute.

Only time will tell if I'm right or not but in the meantime I'll happily stay long and will look to add on any extreme weakness.