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Good point, Any accumulation of 5%, at least the notice of it, would move the share price.
I don't see that number any time soon. Anyone who is truly looking to buy the company could easily accumulate 30-40% of the company outstanding shares for under $1. Then they would only be left to deal with insider shares to buy. Not sure LP will sell until topline or PPS increase first.
I believe that the "housekeeping" items, like the forced conversion of preferred, the option adjustment in yesterday's 8-K are final touches before a significant announcement. And, I like that Linda Powers seems irritated by the noise:
"We understand that some message board postings may have made such claims, but they are either a misunderstanding or yet another misrepresentation to attack the Company. The Company only authorized a small incremental addition to the already existing option pool, to true up the balance of the pool to reflect the greater number of shares outstanding.
Shareholder question: How many shares are outstanding and how many new options did the Company add to the pool?
Company answer: There are approximately 516 million shares outstanding, and the Company awarded new options for approximately 5.3 million shares – a little over one percent (1%) of the shares."
Not sure if it will be a larger financing deal with BP for new trials or buyout...I would certainly prefer buyout.
Recent signs point to something significantly different, IMO.
1. "coming weeks" comment at ASCO...although delayed to date
2. Forced Conversion of preferred, generally done to align all shares into the same class for valuation and purchase/transfer
3. Two trials scheduled to start this Fall and now pushed back. I don't believe it is due to lack of funds as the partners in these trials are participating and funding. I believe that starting the trials would complicate a sale of the company if the participants were not the buyers, thus leaving them in a partner trial with the competition.
4. Angel financing by Bigger and ohters with unique 4 month out clause.
5. NT 10-Q. Reads like LP was very close to a deal prior to data presentation at SNO. Once new data out, LP likely had more to bargain with and to renegotiate.
6. SNO data refresh by Linda Liau. Powerful. Statistically significant, and long tail.
7. LP signals 4 part process to end trial with Lock, scrub, unblinding.
8. Option realignment for officers. Again, part of the original company plan but doing it now may have additional relevance.
9. Deal Announcement "imminent" IMO....
I certainly hope Basin is correct. And, I do agree, all the recent signs point to something significantly different, IMO.
1. "coming weeks" comment at ASCO...although delayed
2. Forced Conversion of preferred, generally done to align all shares into the same class for valuation and purchase/transfer
3. Two trials scheduled to start this Fall and now pushed back. I don't believe it is due to lack of funds as the partners in these trials are participating and funding. I believe that starting the trials would complicate a sale of the company if the participants were not the buyers, thus leaving them in a partner trial with the competition.
4. Angel financing by Bigger and ohters with unique 4 month out clause.
5. NT 10-Q. Reads like LP was very close to a deal prior to data presentation at SNO. Once new data out, LP likely had more to bargain with and to renegotiate.
6. SNO data refresh by Linda Liau. Powerful. Statistically significant, and long tail.
7. LP signals 4 part process to end trial with Lock, scrub, unblinding.
8. Option realignment for officers. Again, part of the original company plan but doing it now may have additional relevance.
9. Deal Announcement "imminent" IMO....
Sleight of hand: skillful deception.
"this is financial sleight of hand of the worst sort"
synonyms:deception, deceit, dissimulation, chicanery, trickery
...Seems to fit, IMO
weren't the preferred forced to convert?
Boatload? Linda Liau presentation, yes. From the company? Nonsense. A Lucy pulling the football away on the 10-Q? A cryptic but non-definitive timeline of sorts for the next 4 steps to unblind? Where is there any clear, material info on a plan?
That's why i haven't sold, just frustrated and don't understand the communication secrecy strategy. This is a textbook PR opportunity, PPS should be skyrocketing. Why aren't they on CNBC speaking, fox business? Interviews? It wouldn't be hype or pumping, the data speaks for itself as the greatest "potential" new brain tumor treatment.
Meanwhile we have lost all buying momentum, PPS down, volume low, if we don't get news this week I wouldn't be surprised to see .20 again.
I agree with this scenario. IMO no big pharma will license or partner without controlling interest, especially based on LP's past behavior. And, LP clearly haws had no interest in giving up control. I believe the price of deal changed after SNO. Any prior negotiations were redrawn with higher purchase prices after SNO. This is what I believe she meant in the late 10-Q filing...ongoing negotiations, which if completed prior to SNO and before new data release would have been at one price. Now, they restart talks with a higher level of confidence in achieving success in trial. My guess is a complete buyout, either at todays valuation (?) after SNO or at a substantially higher price if based on top line release. December buyout at a valuation based on fully diluted shares and a $6 purchase price ($7.2 billion)..IMO.
I happen to be in this camp as well. The series of recent events and announcements seem to me to line up to a partnership deal. Probably what was being worked on prior to the SNO Liau presentation. LP was likely negotiating a deal at a price prior to the SNO news, and when they couldn't agree, had to start again at higher PPS based on the new data. So, I do believe there is something in the works and will be announced in December with a game plan for ending and unblinding the trial.
yes, but if 1. warrants are actually being exercised. i am not sure the price would be enough for me to exercise yet. And 2. Those "shares" on exercised warrants are already figured into the total fully diluted shares outstanding in the 950 Million range that we are all prognosticating with for buyout prices per share.
Per this language regarding the acceleration of options, wouldn't they have to disclose which clause triggered this? if it is simply at the discretion of the board at this late stage I would think the shareholders would have a lawsuit...IMO.
Yes, but if the information flow stops so will the price, and retreat, IMO. The last week or so has provided a spark. We need to partnership or "alternative financing" announced showing a path to unblinding to get to new annual highs, or higher....IMO.
Bigger tweeted response to AF last night regarding another negative and unfounded post. Bigger says: "LMAO....in weeks."
The best thought I have is that LP feels her work is done here, she has gotten this to the finish line except for approval. Since this is so closely held and many potential partners will not make a deal without her giving up control, she will sell it outright. $10 per share and move on to her new biotech company. Maybe the forced preferred conversion, 4 month Bigger out, imminence of lock, scrub, release of topline all point to a victory in her mind and set up her exit...so someone with the resources (BP) can commit to making this the true SOC, and faster. This would be the best scneario if LP truly cares about the patients, not her pocketbook, IMO.
Despite my aggravation regarding game plan and execution by management, I am long, not selling, and believe this will win (for patients) and investors, in spite of the missteps. The new info is definitively different than previous PR/releases, Bigger has a 4 month clause for a reason, we have past the 36 month mark that has been discussed, the data did get better and I believe will continue to. The FDA has learned a lot more about evaluating immuno research and trials and this long tail will be too impressive to deny, IMO.
2020, the SEC seems to always be your go-to argument. I don't see it. Governance issues or impropriety by management would be adjudicated in favor of shareholders IF there is something to correct. Any slap on the wrist will be irrelevant to PPS. Anything major, IMO, would be the potential of removing or fining officers, which would be great for PPS....
5th day is irrelevant now. It would have been the 5th day if they were filing late. They filed the next day, timeline indefinite now.
I believe LP was negotiating and overplayed her weak hand prior to LL's presentation. Something like this: "Mr./Mrs. Investor/partner you would be wise to take my deal now at these prices before LL let's the cat out of the bag Saturday at SNO. 'cause with that news, next week the PPS will run and I will get Warrant money and won;t need you" to which they replied, "it's too expensive and you don't have the unblinded data yet. We will wait and see what happens next week."
Flop, no big PPS move, no outside investor group came in, no warrant money. That's the problem with having attorneys running a business. Book smarts, not street smarts, IMO.
YEP. Same old thing. Almost ALL buying and it is capped and hard to move up, but easy to knock back down. Vaguery. Ambiguity. Always the cause, IMO. SEC monitoring or not, you are able to say what you believe as a CEO and that PR this morning just didn't do it. The market says so.
Tomorrow is five calendar days from NT 10-Q, are we still bound by that for news of financing or did filing the regular 10-Q negate that?
Agreed, and i do believe if LP felt her back was against the wall she would have been more open and decisive with her timelines and showing her hand. So, to me, this says she has financing in the bag, we just don't know how painful it will be to investors.
All things considered, I still believe, in Wall street terms this would warrant taking a flyer. $120 million valuation on a potential multi billion dollar opportunity? the newest data looks better than June data? Where are the buyers?
You mean as opposed to the $1.3 million traded so far? LOL. Criminal, IMO.
Exactly. this "news" has not gotten to anyone. This should be a TV interview roadshow, PR's and excitement about the "possibility" of a new standard of care for multiple cancers. Instead we get more ambiguity, IMO. That is the only way to get a 30 million share day and move the PPS into warrant money territory.
"...we are grateful to our Scientific Advisory Board for their strong advice not to unblind the trial too early. Had we unblinded earlier, the opportunity to see the fuller extent of patient survival would have been lost, and the potential would never have been known."
OK, great, you were strongly advised against it.
"We believe it is now appropriate for the Company to move forward with the several stages of work that are needed to reach completion of this trial program, despite the fact that there are good arguments for allowing the data to mature even further.
Now, it appears LP is comfortable moving forward regardless of the SAB board...
What was left out is how NWBO will fund this for the next 4 months, or longer. That is the "hanging chad" from the 10-Q delay last week.
yes, but this time she said they have been resisting data lock for trial maturity sake. This time she said they are ready, IMO. Regardless, in order to get the PPS high enough to capture warrant money, they need more definitive info, IMO. And, just last week they had the 10-Q debacle and still no news on what that meant.
This stock should be taking off today, not by pennies, IMO. The data continues to mature better than expected, LP said they will work to unblind in the coming months. the valuation on those two items alone should have the stock at new highs as far as market valuation, IMO. To me, that should be over $1 at this point.
This PR, IMO, is another vague communication. Why couldn't LP say "our goal is to unblind by March 31st" or "while we work toward data lock, we will be providing additional info on the alternative financing plans"
that's the only part of the PR I don't like...Each of these are multi-month processes....but, she has now said they are working toward lock and unblinding.
Agreed, if we don't see a PR today we will get slapped down, IMO. How can you allow previously non-public info to be disseminated to a small group and then not PR to the whole market? I don't think that is allowed, is it?
still holding it down. 1.2 million, has to be mostly buy side and not moving.
We have new, blinded data which improved from the ASCO numbers. That was a concern and they said the data could get better or worse, it is getting better. I also believe the unblinded data and separate (placebo vs. treated) should also get better. Then, you have he improved manufacturing and long tail. This data alone should move the stock. Then we have the discussions for alternative financing which originally was to be announced within five days, that could come this week, before the price or participation goes up again with data lock or top line release. All together we have multiple opportunities for great news between now and year end, IMO. $3-5 PPS target for me.
Personally, I believe the company is worth more today than it has ever been. So, even with fully diluted outstanding shares and warrant/option exposure totaling 900+ million shares, the PPS should be over $2. I also don’t believe there will be a rush to convert warrants or exercise options. I think that would take some time and price appreciation that is sustained to give confidence to those exercising.
Doubtful. It would need to be the perfect storm of positives....PR that states unblinding and lock, BP partnership, 30 million share trading day and a short squeeze of epic proportion. It would be a great Monday if all of that happens but not likely...
So, what are the expectations for trading Monday?
Gap up to $1 at open?
Trade slightly higher like we did Friday?
Short squeeze on 30 million share day up to $3
you are not wrong. We will not get data first. We will see a 10-Q and announcement as to what that "financing" is.
C'mon baby, here comes the bid and the buying hopefully....