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Jeerio: The Gold/dollar correlation was directed at the general market action today in response to what the fed will or won't do with respect to rates (not surprised you missed that since you're so bent on "regression to being mean"). If they tighten, the broad market falls out of support and biotech gets killed. If they're dovish, the most speculative sector (biotech) catches a nice bid. That's how the market works, not how jeerio works.
AMRN +29.37% for the month.
If the S&P 500 index does not accelerate up from its narrow range the past few days, we could suffer a spike down. Perhaps the most speculative corner of the market: Biotech stocks are telegraphing that by yesterday’s mark down?
Don’t forget however, we are closing out the month. Fund managers will paint the tape with the winners. In the DRUGS goup, AMRN has sharply risen near the top by rising 29.37%:
MobyDick, man, that is a nasty hit to your shorts. Don’t forget all the newly formed technical support levels. And don’t forget the “window dressing” on the last day of the month ;)
I never realized this, but you’re a FISH too. :) FFS
My math wizard friend programmed a way to show daily moving averages on intra-day charts. I love how it enables a view of price action relative to these averages. The AMRN 30-min. chart below shows a golden cross (20dMA crosses up through the 50dMA) followed by a series of higher lows ending in an upward sprint to where we are now at 1.85:
I like the progressive increase in up volume as prices have trended up.
NoFunNoFun: Bear raid at resistance. What’s so wrong with that when we’re on the heels of a 53% run? This is the stairway to heaven baby; 2 steps up, one down. You and Jeerio act as if AMRN doesn’t go straight up to 5.83 (target objective) in 3 days, then the pattern’s failed. Wrong. It has to pullback form overbought extremes in order to sustain the grinding squeeze on shorts.
Do you know how silly you both appear, bashing every little word Fishy and I write? AMRN
has sliced through key resistance levels with relative ease the past week. Now the last hurdle is overcoming the 200MA. So far this resistance has held. Once it retests previously broken resistance (now serving as support), we’ll likely see a spirited bounce to back-kiss the apex goodbye.
What will you both say then? 70, 80,90, or 100% is not enough because it's down 200% with a doubled down position?
there is no squeeze play underway here. there is a sector sentiment play, separate from any particular news or leaks or anything else directly attributable to the AMRN price.
having said that, the next 4-5 months will be quite revealing in terms of the divergence that the stock may indicate in relation to the overall market and the sector. it's simply that we're not there yet, and without stock-specific news/rumors, it is likely to take a while to show any colors that will demand further interpretation.
which is also known as "Why?", the most important question known to mankind.
Because the 200MA appeared to be rejecting higher prices,.. until late in the session.
Jerri, Why does "why" have to matter? TA (all forms) are used to prognosticate what might be around the corner. I have laid out my point of view regarding AMRN stock.
i sure hope it goes up more, then we can speculate as to why, which always matters.
Oh, ok. Glad to know, LOL. How many shares of AMRN are you short? Who cares if you can't find a "why" regarding a 43% run, other than it might be correlated to the Biotech sector - which by the way - also has a high short interest ratio and yes, the squeeze indicator for this chart also flashed a buy at about the same time (I posted that).
As for the low AMRN volume. It is NOT because "a powerful trading force has moved to the sidelines in terms of shorting." Shorts (like yourself, and other hedge funds) have not covered en mass from the previous accelerated price drops (likely because the pps remains below the 200MA). Now as prices have coiled into the apex of a symmetrical triangle (something you discredit) they are trapped like rats on a sinking ship. The low volume is always characteristic of this pattern; one of the reasons why it can be explosive. This pattern has behavior that nearly always diverges from the general market or even its own industry group, but when it synchronizes with those other sectors, prices can melt up even faster/further and sustain a bull run that will cream shorts.
Jeerio, I have shared a unique set of price/pattern/indicators on this board as it relates to AMRN, including the ‘squeeze indicator.’ You oppose nearly everything I post. I started posting when AMRN’s squeeze signal fired at 1.32. Since then it has rallied to 1.90, (+44%). Take it for what it’s worth instead of trying to over define what a ‘short squeeze’ is by posting that it can’t be so unless we see +100%.
FF,
A question for you. Why do you think so many shares are still short this stock based on your knowledge of TA and stock market mechanics in general? I mean these hedge funds have access to the same data you and I do. How is it possible that you can study the TA data and arrive at the conclusion that going short this stock is the best play here?? Are people really that stupid or am I missing something?
Jeerio, you obviously don't know much about trading or you would know what a 'hard squeeze' is and you would be familiar with a squeeze indicator (although mine is proprietary). It is constituted by the interplay of two indicators: Bollinger Bands and Keltner Channels. When the former traces inside the latter and then subsequently breaks out, we have a 'squeze breakout'
The AMRN daily chart below shows the squeeze BO before the Baker Brother's acquisition and then again recently prior to breaking out of the apex. you can see how reliable this indicator is - especially on th eve of news events (notice the volume surge)!
my previous examples, namely CPXX RWLK and ADMS as 3 recent situations where the market didn't run-up the stock in advance of major news.
The 200 Day Moving Average is a BIG deal!
A strategic battleground of sorts, the 200dMA determines the general trend. We have already won one battle by breaking through the tendline. Now we will win the war if can take out the 200.
Many dynamics are in play:
1. The Squeeze. The low volume price tightness recently caused the Keltner channel lines to converge inside the Bollinger Bands producing squeeze conditions.
2. SIR. Short interest ratio is extremely high at 27 due in part to the above plus a high short float.
3. Symmetrical triangle. Prices have broken out of the apex on strong volume.
4. 200 dMA. Sitting on the 200dMA, the trend is poised to officially reverse.
5. Group strength. The biotech index has traced a cup and handle formation and is on the verge of confirming a breakout.
Jeerio, a poster who contends that ARMN is not in a short squeeze and won’t rally prior to the announcement said this:
...it takes the actual announcement to move the stock.
Timing The Trade: As a stock trades up in price, people who are short suffer trading losses. To lessen the inherent risk of this, traders often times initiate stop loss orders at key price points commonly recognized as indicators of whether a stock is trending up or down: the 52-week high, 50 day MA, and 200 day MA. Since someone short a stock, suffers trading losses in a stock that is trending up, a breach of these levels can trigger a powerful chain reaction of buying, causing a surge in stock price up, called a "short squeeze". These price levels can become areas of heavy trading activity and great market opportunity when short interest is at extremely high levels.
200-Day Moving Average
WHAT IT IS:
The 200-day moving average is a popular technical indicator which investors use to analyze price trends. It is simply a security's average closing price over the last 200 days.
WHY IT MATTERS:
The 200-day moving average is perceived to be the dividing line between a stock that is technically healthy and one that is not. Furthermore, the percentage of stocks above their 200-day moving average helps determine the overall health of the market.
Many market traders also use moving averages to determine profitable entry and exit points into specific securities. If the price breaks through the 200-day moving average in an upward direction, it is a signal that the downtrend is reversing.
Bobcat..
My main fishery growing up was the Yellowstone (was literally my back yard). Two lb browns, cuts, rainbows were a dime a dozen. Just throw em a Joes Hopper or Royal Wulff...
Just to clarify sensei: Most of the stocks in the IBB index were shorted till there was no tomorrow during the recent correction. The IBB has a whopping 7.90 short interest ratio.
Big money is rotating into this sector as shorts are being squeezed. The technical analysis shows this. This is not occurring because the index announced some market moving news. It is purely technical driven and so is AMRN’s breakout.
Of course there are correlative sympathy moves within the group, but each has its own unique pattern that impacts the short interest ratio (fact, not my opinion). AMRN’s is by far the most unique right now and will thus likely outperform the group (IMO). AMRN will move significantly before the interim news and yes it will explode up once rumors fly - all before the 'announcement'
Don't get too tangled in your words.
Jeeri, ..
my contention has been/is that it's too early to expect an actual run-up based on R-IT expectations for Aug/Sept timeframe.
no one should be surprised if there's no run-up at all, and this imo signals nothing of importance, as many bios only move when the actual news is firmly known.
God's country. Henry's has some huge hybrid bows. We have a place on the Henry's Fork (Pinehaven). I grew up in Blackfoot. No place I'd rather be than fishing in the Idaho-Montana area (Hebgen, Madison, HL, HL outlet, etc., etc.). MS Bobcat? :)
Ever wonder exactly how hedge funds rip us off? Take a look at this video interview with Jim Crammer explaining how his hedge fund created illusive deceptions for investors. WOW.
How the Stock Market is Manipulated
HDG – I’m from Idaho and the king of the road is a big truck. ‘HD’ stands for “Heavy Duty.” I would characterize your board role as heavy duty:)
I analyzed all of the Biotech industry and sub-industry components chart by chart. This sector is getting some serious attention right now, contributing to the dominant performance of the Russel 2000 index compared to the Dow and Nasdaq. There are some very nice setups that echo that of AMRN’s reversal mojo: ARIA, ALKS, AMAG, BIIB, MEOH, VRX, and the indexes – IBB, LABU. Other non-biotech stocks that mirror AMRNs symmetrical triangle pattern: ARIA(weekly), SEDG, SINA).
No doubt the group’s strength is contributing to AMRN’s technical breakout. Shorts are taking profits as funds have now turned to this lagging post correction sector. The rotational activity will only help fuel AMRN’s new born bull-run.
Fellow longs, in the words of Tom Cruise as Jerry Maguire, “Today, our little project..our company had a very big day,.. a very, very BIG day. But it wasn’t complete... Wasn’t in the vicinity of being complete….”
Today seemed to be just one small step for Trader Joe (Raf, I get what you are saying), but it was one giant leap for AMRN stock because we had a confirmed upside resolution to this triangle pattern (a small eruption of ash). Now it must follow through. I expect it to take out the 200dMA and then settle right on it or slightly above (1.89-1.90) to close out the week. Next week it pushes through $2.00 and continues to climb (spew lava). The squeeze is on!
2 charts to feel good about tonight:
AMRN Weekly:
There isn’t a better looking reversal pattern in the all stocks universe right now.
AMRN Daily:
Note the bullish green candle (O’Neil calls it a pocket pivot breakout). Today traced the first one we have seen above trendline resistance – a very bullish statement.
Most of the recent short volume is now underwater. Some will choose to ride it out and hold on to their shorts. If so, we will see margin calls further fuel the up-trending pps next week.
Cheers!
FFS
Raf! Raf!...bad dogma!
"So these aren't "solid predictions"???" Donno, but it's 'raining" :)
I feel pretty confident that "professionals" aren't "accumulating"
Be patient my friend.... :)
Think of accumulation as the professionals buying the stock at wholesale prices.
"Start raining money" Do you have an umbrella MOG?
Let’s think like a criminal: .. an AMRN short. At night he/she wakes up frequently to a mysterious sound, “boing, boing, boing.” What is that sound?
It is the sound of prices when they hit RISING SUPPORT. The current daily chart has lots of it too. So much so, that it would be difficult to imagine a strong selloff that would slice through all 7 levels. No doubt these little buggers were less encouraged by Tuesday’s false upside breakout once they saw no downside follow through yesterday. This sets the stage for more upward progress.
This chart shows 7 levels of support:
Support levels:
A. 8dEMA
B. Rising channel support
C. Price support of previous broken resistance
D. Fib channel midband
E. 20dEMA
F. Fibonacci 50% retracement of recent rally (yellow circle to circle)
G. 50dEMA
As longs, I think we made it through the rain. [color=green] Now let it "rain $"
Epi...
Normal behavior as it overcomes overhead resistance. The negative was yesterday's false breakout (bar A). The positive was the strength of support today, preventing a strong fallout.
Compare what's happening to what happened to the General market (chart to the right) as it stabbed through resistance (A), pulled back to consolidate (A-B) then broke above (C).
You are a dentist, think of bar A as a draining fistula, A-B the inflamed pulp chamber and C the apical Abscess :)
FF, I hope you're right! My view is a bit different. Though you are correct, HFs can and do hurt each other by inducing squeeze breakouts with gaps, this time I think they are targeting the retail trader.
Yesterday, 1 share was traded at 1.80 (above resistance in breakout territory) after hours. Many traders run scans to find after-hours activity or other bullish technical metrics involving MACD change, RSI, price appreciation, etc. Some don’t even look at volume. This suckers many into orders (pre-market), forcing gaps at the open. HFs quickly step in and fade by shorting. Yesterday AMRN traced an ugly bearish wick (false breakout) above resistance. In my opinion it is a short term bearish development that will require a few days to recover before prices stab at another breakout attempt.
They did the same thing last night, with a bigger ‘lure’ (order) at 2.10. To me, this is deception, designed to set up a gap and crap situation. The real price action that is glaring is the up-thrust of yesterday’s bar - above resistance - that failed to close above the daily bar’s midpoint and the previous day’s close. Reversal bars don’t look any better for hungry bears.
13min AMRN chart:
comparison chart: AMRN vs S&P500 futures.
Note the same false BO bar for the general market. We could be following suit. I hope I'm wrong. Just keepin it real...
BC,..
I doubt you will see an eruption so early, maybe 4-5 months!
Is AMRN's fuse lit?.....
Fishy Fingers..
We are still looking for the professional money to act on the strength seen last Tuesday and time is running out.
Thanks JL.
I rest my case here. I have sufficiently expressed my opinion regarding the merits of technical analysis; especially as it relates to AMRN - past, present, future. I use a unique combination of combining fundamental info + bullish or bearish price action features + confirming MACD (momentum) + volume. The final variable to a successful trade is a Classical chart pattern (symmetrical, ascending or descending triangle, double top or bottom, cup and handle, etc.). When trades are found that possess those requirements, wealth building success occurs. The proof is in the equity curve.
since I have been posting on iHub:
Best, FFS
Jeerio...
and regarding the previous AMRN moves, those are all water under the bridge. the R-IT results, either interim or final, are all that matter right now. as far as leaks go, i'm certain they do happen. will it happen on this cycle with this stock? i suppose we'll find out, in either direction.
as additional examples, you might also look at RWLK and ADMS, both during this past December. in those cases, no particular anticipatory price moves, followed by explosive upside. then the rinse.
JL, TA represents the analysis of footprints of all participants. Each price bar is made up of ticks which are the very votes for consensus value (perceived or actual) of a commodity or equity at a given moment in time, whether emotionally driven or based on supply and/or demand, or in fact fundamental strength. It is very important to realize as investors that quite often fundamental value disconnects with technical value (current pps), thus the need to heed TA’s predictive capacity to forecast when fundamental and technical synchronicity might once again find harmony. AMRNs current technical footing hints of that likely marriage soon. Until then, the technical forces will lead the way.
Repeatable chart patterns (measuring fear and mania) that also echo those of the industry group (the current situation with AMRN) give valuable insight as to subsequent expectations for price movement. That in essence is the inherent value of TA. Thanks for the exchange. As always, I highly respect your mind :) FFS