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Mobydick, What a ridiculous question. Of course it's priced in - that's the problem!! You validated Mog's quote. It is indeed disturbing that the share price has fallen so far to find new shareholder demand. Why is there no BP interest at this level? "Serious question"
HD (and others), regarding Mog's posts:
You never said any concrete thing (or anything) just react / criticize if somebody was wrong / missed something ...
So, if you think that you have a realistic view it is wrong since - as I said above - you did not share any concrete view ...
"AMRN isn't affected by the price of oil, gold, the VIX, 10 year Treasury yield, the dollar index, Hillary or Trump. It's the science and facts of R-IT. This has been stated here everyday since adcom."
You are overdoing it with the pessimism in my eyes. You highlighted the triple top on the S&P but you failed to acknowledge the triple bottom.
Why might the IBB have "a bit of a bounce around 249-250 before resuming back up again"? Because that is where I see support and it is where I predict big buying volume will come in. The bounce around refers to the churn as retail traders scratch their heads trying to figure out which way we go next before it finally dawns on them that it is back up.
one, I wish I could believe what you say but I hardly think the "science" is impacting the broad market or the Biotech index. I continue to hope the science will eventually rescue AMRN stock price, but to simply say I am "wrong because of the science" is more subjective than objective.
Objective opinions please.
FF: with all do respect, you are seeing things if you think the long term IBB chart is a symmetrical triangle. But that confirms what I said before about the adverse effect of a bias and its tendency to obscure objectivity.
As for this:
I have Invest89898 down for a $1: "So I predict no major buying and mild selling until any real good news comes out, and since that may be many months from now the stock price will slowly drift towards 1."
And my darling sweetheart Moggie thinks $3 is pure fantasy: "The thought of a run to near $10 before the DMC decision is so unrealistic its laughable. Even this getting to $3 is highly highly highly unlikely given the balance sheet and cash flows issues that plague the stock and as of yet have been ignored by management."
Lets see how you do. I'll be tracking the share price carefully on its way to $10 using the TA so ill be able to keep you all informed.
FF, Tell me your objective rationale for why this might happen:
Yeah looks like the IBB will have a bit of a bounce around 249-250 before resuming back up again.
FF: one can always show something bullish about any chart if emotionally biased. Sorry, I choose to be stone cold objective with respect to what happened last week.
I posted of the importance of the 200MA:
We lost that key level. As a result prices were raided.
As for the supporting broader index? You are flat wrong. There is nothing bullish about the IBB trend. Your chart is a joke. Your "lower ascending trend line" is a neck line depending on how you choose to "see" it.
The weekly chart bearish:
FF, if you want to succeed at trading, include the 'open' on your bar chart (can't trade with one arm behind your back), then try to be a bit more objective as you look at trends. A bias will always obscure that.
MrMainBreak: not out to call anything. You all want to sling mud while no one has responded to my statement,
Rarely is this talked about, but there is a little demon in the back of everyone’s mind that whispers, “But what if the FDA tries to get even for the lawsuits?” Isn’t it curious how they took their foot off AMRNs neck, let it rise to the 200MA then raided the price like never before the 1A “settlement”? Don’t kid yourselves. The powers that be have connections to a cabal who can do what they want, and when they want to this stock price– especially now that management has developed a “chronic cough.”
Marzan: "This FFS is a trader wanting us to keep buying then and he must have shorted at $1.99 but now he wants us to keep selling until it hits $.69 to cover. What an interesting guy he is. The world is full of gamers like him but I'm here to remain thru the end of Amarin."
I'm not a gamer and I'm not short. I do not short stocks below 3.00. I don't have an agenda and I'm not here to entice you to do anything. I warned from the start, that if this pattern fails, there could be something drastically wrong behind the curtain. No one can deny this stock walked up stairs the past 11 weeks and then fell out of a window. I’m concerned by the fact that no one is stepping in to support it (except Mobydick). Why is that? There is such a divergence between the promising science and the current price level. All the speculation of 967 timing, the probable placebo rate and estimated RRR, yet no one is noticing. Why? Then there’s management. I understand the legal ramifications of over promising and under delivering as JZ did, but JL did just the opposite at a time when the pps is vulnerable. I'm as frustrated as the rest of you. I was stopped out of half my position and will sell more if it breaks the lower edge of the triangle. The price needs to be defended or it won't be pretty. That's a simple fact. Don't stone the messenger.
RAF: Duh! +24% banked on this trade. Could have been more, but the the pattern gave a head fake.
I'm sorry you didn't read the rest of my post. It basically just said I'll be back to buy your shares when you capitulate at .69/share.
Have a pleasant weekend ;)
TA reveals AMRN systemic breakdown. Raf, you want HDG to give you the straight scoop on TA? – LOL. This may or may not come as a surprise to you but HDG is an alias of JL. It is laughable how he vacillates in and out of a strong Hungarian accent. The giveaway: “C’mon Man!” What Hungarian uses an NFL term? This board has been duped. In my opinion, we are all sleep walking in a stupor of endless hope that the AMRN dream will deliver.
TA keeps you nimble and flexible, governed by set rules that force tactical changes. FA on the other hand keeps you tied to a mast of hope, while the ship sinks.
So what is the TA message after last week’s developments, and how does it mirror the fundamentals looking forward? It’s all reflected in the last 4 RED daily candles (these bars are programmed to display strong bearish momentum):
This has never happened before to AMRNs stock price. Nowhere in the history of this daily chart can you find 3 much less 4 long range red price bars that traced back to back to back to back. Some can argue that the volume wasn’t that large, BUT the ease to which prices plummeted through support was alarming. Oh, but wait a minute, Kiwi, Walatene, Akanz, et al., finally went long. There’s hope! Ha,ha, a poster posing as a lot of things (street smart isn’t one of them) steps up and courageously catches a falling knife and everyone’s supposed to feel comforted? Besides, now he is describing his investment as a call option? Hmmm, that’s what JL used to say. Is the missing JL also posing as Kiwi?
Rarely is this talked about, but there is a little demon in the back of everyone’s mind that whispers, “But what if the FDA tries to get even for the lawsuits?” Isn’t it curious how they took their foot off AMRNs neck, let it rise to the 200MA then raided the price like never before the 1A “settlement”? Don’t kid yourselves. The powers that be have connections to a cabal who can do what they want, and when they want to this stock price– especially now that management has developed a “chronic cough.”
Raf, if you insist on taking TA advice from a Hungarian, take it from Thomas Bullkowski who wrote:
Busted patterns (when the breakout is in one direction only to see price reverse and breakout in the opposite direction) often result in strong moves.
Mog: Have you ever heard the phrase, "priced in?" LOL
But hey, thanks, you have been a great contrarian indicator for my AMRN investment. Perfect entry signal when guys like you show up to twist the knife, say I told you so, and yell the sky is falling!
Vest: On the heels of a bull run from 1.37 to 1.99, AMRNs stock smacked the upper channel line and pulled back beneath the 200MA the day before the earnings report. Unless management surprised with news or earnings, the stock was setup to fall back to support. This was a classic bull trap (happens all the time during earnings season). The fact that the report was more negative than positive forced longs to tighten stops. The MMs ran those stops, dropped the bid and the stock plummeted down to triple support.
If you were on the sidelines and missed the opportunity to take a long position the last time the pps pulled back to the 50MA in March, when and at what point would you re-consider an entry? The obvious answer is at triple support. This is the major “bus stop” where shorts will get off, patient longs (including DMC analysists, their friends and family) will get on. Don’t be surprised to see volume ramp up as this takes place.
If not, and we see the price flush down the toilet, then (as I’ve said before) we have a “Hound of the Baskervilles” situation (why didn’t the dog bark?). In other words, the fundamental story has been derailed; something is wrong with the trial.
Bullkowski says this, “Busted patterns (when the breakout is in one direction only to see price reverse and breakout in the opposite direction) often result in strong moves.” Given that situation, all longs should reconsider the value of holding AMRN stock.
Thank you. I only wish you could do the same ;)
yep, pattern not violated.
remember mog, protect with a stop loss this time because the 50 day moving average is where strong accumulation occurs, just like it did in March.
I agree. good post Jeerio.
Today’s events forced me to admit I was wrong even though I wanted it to happen so bad. I learned long ago you can't will stock prices up or down,.. not even with hyperbole :)
Correct me if you think I'm wrong, but I don't see any need to panic based on today’s price action.
We bounced off triple support of the rising 50dMA, up trendline and the 50% retrace level. Some weak hands capitulated, but much of the selling was absorbed by short covering as key support kept the intermediate uptrend intact (note what happened the last time 3 red candles traced in March. Said another way, magma retreated (yes I was wrong, there wasn't an explosion) but the volcano is not dead. It continues to rumble beneath the surface. We’ll see what shorts do if the aforementioned support holds.
Vest,
To me it's very similar to meteorologists who use complex dynamic atmospheric models based on dynamic atmospheric physics, historical patterns, and calculus to estimate the future weather and, although they may be getting more accurate over time, they still are not anywhere near 100% accurate (some would say they are still 50 / 50 like they have always been - even before computers).
Mog is feeling fat and sassy. He increased his shorts today in effort to buffer his recent losses. I'm sure he knows that losing more capital by doubling down is very painful.
Today was nothing more than a “second chance” opportunity for entry as price action often dips back towards the apex, bouncing off the broken trendline—in effect, “kissing” it goodbye:
Raf:
"Not to be rude, but unless anyone here will sell their shares before the recommendation, who cares what happens before?"
of course I am Raf! Whatever it is, I guarantee the clues will be priced in before hand. You are the one who went on and on and on about a "leak" remember? LOL!
Most on this board are spiteful, disrespectful, unapologetic, angry, disillusioned souls who think they know so much for someone who owns TOO many shares at a much higher cost basis than the current pps. All you do is endlessly speculate on the magnitude of unknown variables, or complain about what should be but is not because of this or that. Your fundamental foundational thesis has not delivered on many counts in the past year, yet you ignored strong technical warning signs of lower prices, as the pros took your position to the basement. All because you think TA is reading tea leaves.
I came along and presented what appears to be the first solid technical price pattern that AMRN has traced since the 4 mos. Leading up to FDA acceptance in 2012 and you throw stones. The irony is that this pattern echoes the fundamental potential and (if interpreted correctly) will enable much better hints as to what the real news will be – positive or negative – as well as when that news might be revealed.
Do any of you remember ENER? I held a big position when the stock ran from $9.00/share to $85.00. I was feeling good sitting on a gain of $1,250,000.00, and was so certain oil would go to $200.00 per barrel. Certainly the demand for hybrid cars, solar panels and phase change memory was going to skyrocket… I thought. I watched 80% of that profit evaporate before my eyes before selling out. My emotional attachment to the “prospects” overshadowed the blaring overbought conditions and subsequent diminishing momentum, representing mutual funds flooding the market with sell orders, causing the bid to plummet. I learned a hard lesson about the emotional dangers of “holding” as well as the perils of overlooking the TA message. When in such a state, you will always justify ignoring any and all negatives.
My suggestion, based on what I learned, is to decide before hand when and under what conditions you will exit your position. If the AMRN pps falls apart, will you hold till you’re ruined or will you jettison to salvage what you can? If it jumps up, will you sell too early, too late or will you watch profits evaporate because you just know it will go higher based on FA? These are important decisions – primarily based on price momentum and price inertia. Fundamental analysis is important, but it can’t help you make the optimal exit. That requires a base understanding of TA - like it or not.
It is too bad more discussion relative to this subject can’t/won’t occur on this board simply because a few ignorant “know it all’s” discredit anything they don't agree with relative to TA.
NoFunNoFun and FOG, numbers don't lie and neither does this chart. Mog is probably long IBB and short AMRN (ouch) and painfully suffering today ( do you all sense the panic?).
RAF: How can you argue with this squeeze despite the down channeling index that it belongs to?
Mog,
sure I showed up in time for a reversal. That's what traders do :)
Hahahaha.... the market's cliff diving and AMRNs bouncing off 200MA + channel support. you funny man mog, make worry fo nothing
Closed at the highest level of the year, well above the 200dMA. Runaway gap today.
Jeeri0, it's all about the right edge of the chart. That's where you make or lose money. The chart I posted shows two distinctly different patterns - one bearish and the other bullish. TA deciphers the "why" behind the difference. If traders figure that out, they can become wealthy fast based on probable expected outcomes. Trouble is, too many are stuck in the "can't possibly happen" dogma, spiked by "FA is all that really matters."
Jeerio,
all three of those are news that will drive the 'supply & demand' curve. between now and then, there will be rises and falls, head-fakes, and any number of market reactions, either directly attributable to the stock, or the bio sector, or the overall market.
and even though we're at 1.90 right now, it's not a "squeeze". i'll be happy to post when an actual squeeze has occurred.
C'mon RAF..."Bears made a big effort to pull the price back, but got no reward for their efforts. Up we go"
"made" is past tense. "up we go" is present tense. Where's the contradiction?
PS you must be writing a response before you even finish reading the post.
Whale, you've been digging through my old posts. Did you come across this on 3/28?
The only hope for AMRN shorts is a halt for futility or an insignificant difference in efficacy for the R-IT trial. Absent of either of those outcomes and they remain locked up in the ‘house of pain.’
Moby Dick, in case you missed it, the apex is in the rear view mirror (already broke out). Keep trying multiple alias man. This may be news to you but once prices breakout they accelate -- hehe
Whale,..What!? ..
My pt being ...there is nothing special about AMRN's stock movement since the Feb low
MobyDick,
I guess we'll forget about the window dressing , the eruptions , magna building up and all the other flowery hyperbole for now .
Don't worry, I didn't expect you to know the difference between a rectangle and a triangle LOL!
Reason for AMRN divergence with sector:
This chart shows two distinct price patterns that clearly shows selling pressure in one (IBB) and buying in the other (AMRN).
Triangle patterns tend to operate based on their own rules, ignoring external sector or broad market pressures
Don't forget,... window dressing... :) FFS
GG: I'm here to make money... period. If what I've shared insults, offends, or otherwise contradicts the doubtful fundamentalists, well then I'm sorry. I've lurked for awhile and other than FishyFingers, no one shares any technical input. I'm a believer in the science. I too think there is a high probability that forthcoming news will launch prices. AMRN longs have heard that so many times before though, and until recently, AMRN's technical price patterns have failed to echo the same fundamental promise. FFS