is... a buy and hold investor of dividend US and Canadian stocks
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this actually sounds pretty good. I am impressed. The fact that they are actually going ahead with a project gives it substance. What also sets it apart is that they are tapping into what is generally held to be a huge future market (care for seniors).
Just be aware that the software busines is brutally competitive, with only a few major players. For a small company to break into the big time is difficult.
I tend to stay away form typical "product-oriented" companies becuase I have worked in them and I know how tough it is. One of the biggest issues is that most customers require somehting customized for them. To have a product and be successufl is very difficult. You are always training people and spending money on stupid customizations. Companies that I have seen be successful are those that have some unique competitive advantage that gives them a huge market with no competition. Examples: ABT (Absolute Technology), PTS, etc. Eveyr analyst that talks about ABT raves, and predicts a buyout imminently. Which is another problem, that of being swallowed by a big player lile Microslop.
howev, at first glance this does sound great!
guess I have not bee glued to this forum... got it from another forum..
You guys should like this. uWink makes the news.. hope the link works.. I am a pumper now...
http://cbs2.com/video/?id=52885
makes sense, thanks.
this is likely my answer here...
Netman, being the knowledgeable guy that you are.... why is it that you see the H&H location being opened first over the mountain View? In comparing the two, I would observe that Mountain View is a currently operating restaurant, requiring less effort... and it is the only one that has a definitive contract in place, as far as I know..
??
Does anybody know that they have definitively started construction on mt. View? I would think that that would define the moment that this stock take off again in anticipation of new locations opening. I just wondered if this poster means by having "started" that they have actually started doing something. That means that they are serious... they are spending money.
Last time the stock took off when they hired staff. It went from .33 to .70 cents and then stabilized at .57. That is when I bought in as big as I could.
In reading up on the new locations, it strikes me that the only location that is firm, as far as I know, is Mountain View. The only other one is H&H, but in reading up on it that is only a Letter of Intent, not a "definitive agreement". That means they could back out of it.
It is conceivable to me that they could only open one location, Mountain view, in the near future....
what would the motivation be? make it look higher than it actually is? get in that day regardless of price...
what does "painting" mean? You mean "window dressing"?..
btw, the above links on the new locations DO NOT WORK!!! lol./.
hehe.. technology is my forte, my friend!! No, I have a fully-equipped domicile with all the modern conveniences. I did know something of this, it just was not foremost on my mind. What I did know is that this stock was going to be driven by restaurant openings, not technology, and that is all I was interested in posting about right now. I have been busy with other stocks for about a year, and just been watching this with mild interest. Hence, I do not even know the locations of the new restaurants. Is there going to be one in the Promenade and is it near Santa Monica? I am really not up on it...
In looking at this, it looks like a standard writeup from a vendor about their product. It is wonderful, going to be a killer app, and if correctly configured, will also make toast. It all sounds wonderful, but I would think there is lots of competition in this space. I see nothing that gives uWink a clear advantage. Don't really know, that is what I think.
I have focussed on technology stocks because that is my background. I like to think I know what makes money and what does not. I have learned to put a bit of a filter on data coming from vendors, because that kind of information, as well as financials, is always biased towards them. Under normal circumstances I would not buy anything that I could not look at financials for on some unbiased web site.
This is a restaurant play, the technology is a sideline which might works out. I read somewhere that everything uWink is doing has been done before, just not in one package.
So, I have done pretty well over the last several years in terms of picking some winners in the technology space. I would not include UWKI in that category right now, just IMO. It does not leap out at me. But it certainly is cool stuff..
I do remember reading that about 3 restaurants being profitable. And I so know something about the locations, having spent some time in LA. The one near the Promenade in LA.. not sure how you guys refer to it... I know that area. If I have the right location, that is kind of a "tourist trap". Perfect for something like this. Huge exposure and walk-in. It is an area near Santa Monica where the street is blocked off and there are lots of concessions.. restaurants and the like? Not only good walk-in, but a perfect way to gain wide exposure. I always felt that the Woodlands location was merely a pilot restaurant. THe other one, near Google.. should be good.
I would like more info on the profitability of 3 locations, if anyone knows.
I am not in the restaurant industry, but franchising implies revenue with little/no risk. It has to be where the big bucks are.
The software sales angle, is that selling his games to other restaurants? You must admit, the software business is a bit dicey.. very lucrative, but can't coiunt on it. The whole gamign industry is very tough. Lots of players, and their charts exude turbulence and instability.
I have a friend that went up (and down) with O'Tooles. Says they tried to expand way too fast. The insiders got out with "10 bags".. got to get used to that expression. everybpody else got f'ed. I should ask him to look into this. GIve his opinoin. He is an accountant.
I do agree that this restaurant is a great concept and could be a hit. THe first restaurant seems to be.. to be safe I would play it as taking a quick pop (like last time), keeping something for the LT... my usual.
That argument may seem to make sense on the surface, but is not the way I would look at it. There is strength in numbers; at what point does uWink become a growing, profitable company? I have no numbers to support me, but I htink that with one restaurant they are not making money. How many restaurants does it take to become profitable? I htink the real money is in the franchises.. that is a longer-term thing. There willd efinitely be a pop-up when they open the new restaurants, but if they are not profitable.. I submit IMO it can't be sustained. It will fall back once the momentum and hypo wear off.. the only way it will continue to grow is if profitability is ensured into the future.
This would have to come primarily from company-owned restaurants at first. No boubt they have franchisees (ors?), but likely none of those contracts are binding. If the concept company-owned stores don't make it, the franchises mean nothing. If the company-owned stores are self-sustaining in their own right, they franchises ar what will propel this stock onto a major exchange and maybe make us some real money...
OK, I give up. How much is a "bag"? A thousand dollars?
I find it amazing that the 2.00 Offering Price was not the bottom for this stock. That means all those so-smart institutional investors got hosed pretty well. It might never get to 2.40 to make their warrants worth anything either..
"well" is a relative word. I have not looked at their financials for awhile... but until they are making money on a per-share basis they are not doing anything that matters to investors. There are very few stocks that see price increases until they make $$ on a per-share basis. There are some, but they have to have a compelling accounting reason, like how they Recognize Revenue, or an almost guaranteed revenue stream.
Let's face it, the restaurant business is pretty competitive and highly speculative. Most of the reason why bars/restaurants make money is because they are new. That is why they changes hands/facades so many times.
This will not go back up until they do open up those restaurants, but it won't stay up until they release solid financials that show profit. Signed contracts for franchises would be nice as well.
Remember, a Letter of intent can be broken... if the business is not viable, a letter of Intent for a franchise won't mean much.
I actually agree with you and appreciate your thoughtful reply. uWink was one of the best opportunities I had seen in several years when it opened it's first restaurant. Something like that comes along once every 5 years.
However, if you NEVER sell something like uWink for a profit and try to play the ups and downs of the stock, you are missing out on a profit and may incur losses. I used to have this fear of selling, believing it best to hold for the LT and buy more to average down. Now, I sell high as a matter of course, and every time I find myself averaging down I kick myself and go through my search process for new stocks. It is always better to find new stocks.
The way I figure it, any stock or play on a stock is a probability of success. Given that you can never be 100% right, you can try to be right most of the time, and come out ahead.
If someone is mindlessly "bashing" uWink, like "Nolan is an idiot", well that adds to no value. But to give useful information, like that "so much % of the funds from the restaurant is going to operations and that bothers me", is useful information. To predict a bottom or to say the stock will go down is useful information.
btw, when I first bought uWink I sold other stocks at a loss in order to do it. It takes some fortitude to accept a loss (that you made a mistake). I came out ahead.
Anyway, mindless bashing or pumping gets us nowhere.. Fact-based opinions are always useful, be they positive or negative.
Thanks for replying.
look at that MACD in Mid-November.... just what I was talking about. I find it very odd that the stock remained level... these indicators are usually useless in the present, but with history (looking back at the past), they usually correspond with price movement. not sure what that means in terms of the stock.
Yes, and what is true as well is that you cannot kick yourself for what you did/did not do based on the chart, because these charts are naturally self-smoothing. When a stock spikes up, it is difficult to know what to do. Will it continue to go up? Who the hell knows. When you look at it later, it will look like a nice smooth curve, which will tend to make you say to yourself, "why didn't I sell right ... there" at the precise point that it rounded the top of the chart. Fact is, when all of the data is smoothed out and averaged over time, those spikes become nice rounded curves, which entice all to give ourselves a nice painful kick. Likewise with bottoms...
Like I said, I only use them to confirm decisions already made, or to influence timing of trades... by the time you get the signal, the price movement has usually happened. I find it odd that every book I buy out there on the subject of stock trading states that you can make a fortune by using these indicators.
I do use a couple (RSI, MACD, ...) to influence my timing, but as I understand them better, I realize that that kind of investing is flawed. Right now the market is down, and it will stay that way for awhile, regardless of the indicators.
Odd TA result.... I just looked at the MACD for this stock. I indicated a turnaround in Mid-November which did not transpire. I find that odd, because most of the time these indicators.. while they may lag (what they are telling you has already happened wrt the stock going up or down), they are usually accurate. A positive indication is the blue line crossing the Red in an upward motion... it happened, yet the stock price fell... I find it odd. Not sure what it means. When I look at other stocks, the indicator works, usually without fail.
At one time I tried to predict price movement with indicators. It was a dismal failure. I find them only useful to confirm a decision made based on other factors....
I wonder what would happen if uWink were to hold a shareholder's meeting right now.... lol.
incredible how this stock has changed... what a penny stock story.. I feel for all those that are behind..
I hear ya' SUP. Agree with everything you are saying EXCEPT the speculation on the reasons for the termination of the HH thing. That is pure speculation. Not calling you a lier, just that there is far too much of that around to believe it.
Last time the stock took off when they hired staff, in other words it was a SURE THING that something would happen.
Now, I really don't know. Not only does something have to happen, but they have to open up enough stores in order to be profitable. I am not sure how many that is...
This stock is for real nail-biters.. and I am beginning to think we have not seen the bottom. I thought it would be 1.75, I was wrong.
hey netman, what exactly is the (expected) timing for openings of new restaurants? I assume franchises are next year, but the new locations... and I assume the HH location has been canned?
I made money on the initial runup because I always sell something if I am significantly ahead. I just find it good practice. Buy-and hold is highly touted, but if you can be a successful trader, you will make much more. This year i think the markets are ahead about 5%, yet at their peak in the summer were up maybe 15%?
The hard part is picking the timing, and picking the stock. I sold my remaining shares of this in the high 4.xx range because they did not meet a set of criteria I have developed. These criteria may not make much sense to the buy and holder, but they work. I find the market highly imperfect. If the theory of "perfect markets' were to hold true, everybody would realize that this is going to be a gold mine, and bid it up. They don't. This is as with the original shares. I was watching them at .30 for months prior to the opening. They shot up to 1.50, and then 2.50. Most investors wait until they see the goods (eps).
You are right that promises and hype mean nothing. Most stocks do not go up for any length of time until they are MAKING MONEY. When I sold my last shares at 4.70, uWink was losing money to the tune of .20/share. Plus, I saw alot of time before anything material was going to happen.
But, I would say now is the time. From a seasonality perspective, this is the financial year-end, which means there is alot of tax-loss selling going on. The market is down. In the New Year the new openings are imminent. This thing will go up just before the first opening (last time it was when they hired staff) for sure.
But hindsight is 20/20. You truly never know. It could go lower yet, there is no way of telling. I always hold a little back, so I can buy if it goes lower (another of my rules...)
Good luck.
can't blame the securities firm for the market... they try their best.. it was on a"best efforts" basis to start with.
well, I am back in... at 1.77. Feel good about it.
whether or not they are "free" is a matter of semantics. I have stated before that these warrants are like options and hence could be priced. Basically, if the stock goes up above 2.40. they will become worth something. The price now is based on the probability of that happening.
If I were an institutional investor, I would perhaps simply keep the Warrants. I know I can get back in if the stock goes above 2.40. I would consider selling the stock to achieve a tax loss if I wanted.
SO they are free on paper now, but they certainly took into account future cash flows when they did this deal. and, they are currently down in the stock, so they are not really "free".
You are cutting in on my brand Bigstud. My brand name, I mean.
lol...
and for the record, we are not the same people.
So... I was going to say 2.20 for the upper limit.... glad we did not make that bet, eh?
It could still pull up..
I will take that bet as a friendly wager. After all, given the dough I have already made on this stock I have been thinking about going there to have a burger, it is the least I can do... lol... it is a bit far, I am in Canada...
anyway, we could have a friendly wager witnessed by all on this forum.... I have to think about the terms... something like... I dare you this thing can't maintain a price over 2.xx for a period of at least x days between now and a certain date within the next couple of months...
winner gets something from the uWink promotional store? If you take Paypal, I am in!! and if it can be ordered online..
terms to be finalized... maybe next week?....lol..
I agree wholeheartedly with buyvalue now. I posted some time back that this stock would fall. It did. I think now is a buying opportunity.
I sincerely wish everybody lots of success. Both those that buy now and those that have held on. I know what that is like.
I myself must weigh this with what else I have going on, but I would like to get back in. I figure this window of opportunity will last until Xmas,,,
I read the 8-K Filing. Yes exactly as predicted. I would think that this price would act as a "ceiling" for awhile. If the price went above 2.00 the Buyers could sell for a quick profit. God it fell like a stone today!
But, I doubt it will fall much more than this.. should steady out. At some point the imminence of new locations/news will give it some upward momentum. I don't believe 1.50 or lower.
What is the seasonal cycle in the US? In Canada, the year-end for institutions is end-of-October. Prices tend to be the lowest in September-October with tax-loss selling being a factor. When is the seasonal low in the US?
excuse my ignorance, but I just checked the uWink web site. There is no press release... where do I read about the done deal?
I don't make recommendations to friends anymore. I used to.. thought it was all for fun. But, I realized that I was not always right. Not that I could be held liable, just the principle of the thing. And I had a couple of occasions where they paused to "think about it" or "check it out". Too late. In one case I was getting out when the other person was getting in.
So I just don't do it anymore. Left carrying an emotional bag.
tough luck there bud.
You just don't know my lighter side.
Too F___'in Bad?
Big F___'in Deal?
IMO, there are too many TLAs (3-Letter Acronyms)...
What is IMO?
Yes, true. interesting to watch.