I made money on the initial runup because I always sell something if I am significantly ahead. I just find it good practice. Buy-and hold is highly touted, but if you can be a successful trader, you will make much more. This year i think the markets are ahead about 5%, yet at their peak in the summer were up maybe 15%?
The hard part is picking the timing, and picking the stock. I sold my remaining shares of this in the high 4.xx range because they did not meet a set of criteria I have developed. These criteria may not make much sense to the buy and holder, but they work. I find the market highly imperfect. If the theory of "perfect markets' were to hold true, everybody would realize that this is going to be a gold mine, and bid it up. They don't. This is as with the original shares. I was watching them at .30 for months prior to the opening. They shot up to 1.50, and then 2.50. Most investors wait until they see the goods (eps).
You are right that promises and hype mean nothing. Most stocks do not go up for any length of time until they are MAKING MONEY. When I sold my last shares at 4.70, uWink was losing money to the tune of .20/share. Plus, I saw alot of time before anything material was going to happen.
But, I would say now is the time. From a seasonality perspective, this is the financial year-end, which means there is alot of tax-loss selling going on. The market is down. In the New Year the new openings are imminent. This thing will go up just before the first opening (last time it was when they hired staff) for sure.
But hindsight is 20/20. You truly never know. It could go lower yet, there is no way of telling. I always hold a little back, so I can buy if it goes lower (another of my rules...)
Good luck.
