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I am much more confident that LP has a continued plan to approval. A lot of good PR’s in December. Get past New Years and I believe they will start again. Multi month plan divulged, additional alternative financing (licensing?), NICE appraisal, and ASM to answer questions. I think the phase 2 of this plan will get the PPS high enough before unblinding to get warrant money in and fill coffers even more to get to approval. Then with positive top line release by March 1st, we get buyout or over $2, IMO.
Well, if I am correct, we will see accumulation of upwards of 25 million shares (5% of current outstanding shares) at slowly rising price per share and then see a 13D filing concurrent with an announcement from NWBO....
I certainly believe, if nothing else, Hauwei deal raises eyebrows of US BP companies. If any truly have interest in NWBO, this deal will force them to make reasonable offers to LP before any other potential partnership or acquisition takes place. IMO.
Yes, a lot of speculation, but I do not believe in coincidence. With all of the potential buyers for a property in Sawston, it turns out to be a large multi-national company with an interest in biotech? And, a sweetheart deal? I have no idea what the angle is....licensing, partnership, buyout, but I believe there will be more to come on this. Why did they issue a PR on the property transaction but not mention the purchaser? Then in the 8-K, they mention is a few weeks later? Curious. On Huawei's website, they state the have a R&D office and a Science park in Cambridge now?
Would have preferred a partner BP instead unless heuwai is in fact the partner. It raises questions and IMO, LP should now have to PR if there is more to this or not. I would say it’s material, one way or another.
Yikes, same Chinese company who’s CEO was arrested in Canada.
haven't seen one. That's what i am saying, we should get one more PR, including the ASM date, at least.
I wouldn't be surprised to get one more PR prior to the ASM. That may even be the announcement...ASM in January. That said, they know anyone in attendance will be asking about timelines. It also may be who the Sawston purchaser is. It is an eventuality that we will find out, so if it is truly a sweetheart deal with a potential BP partner, it would be wiser to control the messaging from the company side rather than leaving it up in the air...IMO
Certainly would fit the parameters of an NWBO deal....$47 million upfront in a real estate transaction? Then working out the details to announce a potential $500 million investment in combo trials and/or purchase of shares or the company if topline meets expectations? Something like that would be a great PR....IMO.
I think we are seeing scared, new money, exit. those who recently entered, saw a few "good" press releases and then saw the usual price volatility of this stock, and sold. It's unfortunate but par for the course in my opinion. It is the ambiguity again. LP refuses to be clear on goals and timelines.
I believe we will get more news this week. Property transfer records will be updated and someone will find out who the "large multi-national corporation" is. I think they need to get out in front of it and be the one who discloses it.
I am still scratching my head relative to the terms of the sawston sale. I am thinking that this had to be a related party sale. Maybe a big pharma company who is partnering or buying them out soon or doing a combo trial with NWBO. If it was a disinterested third party, why would they agree to these terms? No rent first year and Low warehouse rate lease, long-term? A real estate investor wouldn't do that. Even another biotech who was planning on using the facility for themselves...why would they offer a discounted long term lease? The only thought I can come up with for the terms and speed of closing on this would be if the value is much higher? Meaning they sold for less than market price to get the favorable terms? Other than that, I am guessing there is more to this story and if so, we should here who and why soon.
Yes, there is. However, it makes it more difficult being on OTCBB. You don't get the major player buying. Not because they can;t see the opportunity, but because they are restricted based on investment strategy.
I am starting to think LP will try to time a R/S with topline release. I hope not, but does anyone else think that this could be? Watching how she operates, a 1-10 reverse split and subsequent uplisting, timed with positive topline might prevent additional shorting due to positive data? And then, that insures PPS for warrant conversion and additional operating cash to get to FDA approval....
Precisely, i doubt any broker would allow margin on NWBO. So, for those who think there is a lot of shorting going on, it's possible, but these are people willing to put 100% REAL dollars into lowering the PPS.
agreed. Honestly, after we moved to the OTC, I think margin requirements change for anyone who was short when on NASDAQ. I don't think etrade would even allow me to short NWBO since it is not marginable. Not sure who does.
You are given a few choices, deposit funds within "x" number of days to bring your account back in line with your allowable margin percentage or buy in the shares of the stock i question, or sell something else in the account to lower your margin exposure. If, after "x" days, the client does none of the above, a broker can initiate the buy-in of the short position security. I do not know many brokers who offer margin accounts on LLC's for the exact reason you stated. Maybe with a personal guarantee? Maybe someone else could answer that one.
Their broker calls their margin account, and if they do not respond, the broker buys in the shares for them and hits the customer account with the loss. Usually only happens in a fast rising situation as a margin call would come while their are still sufficient funds in the account to pay the loss. They would have to sue the customer if not enough funds to cover.
Let's see if we get late day buying again and a push through .31....
Not to mention, when you watch the daily activity, it pops in the morning, drops an hour later and recovers at the end of the day. Text book short early and cover later strategy. A lot of it can be intra-day when a stock has no momentum or direction.
I agree. I am not a conspiracy theorist. However, with all the delays in time and news and reinvestment by all the long term hold buyers (like on this board), who is selling? Converted warrant sales may interfere with a move from, let's say .40 to .60, as some will be converted and then sold quickly for profit. So, I do not see that happening yet. MM's and large short position clients know when the dam will break and I feel are keeping us under that pivot point. I still believe we need a 20 million share up-day to get past this and move higher. At which point we will truly see how many shorts are out there.
It is still ridiculous that we closed down today. One uncertainty was removed, we have some cash and are not living dilution to dilution. Enough money conceivably to end trial and release data...if LP would ever do that. This woulda, coulda, shoulda been a 10 million+ share day and moved through .31 handily.
Here's why the stock price hasn't moved:
1. several month process. How many? When will you release topline?
2. New trials. Which ones? the ones already filed and not started? New ones? BMY partner trial? May clinic trial? Specify!!
3. NICE appraisal. Moving forward? When?
4. parallel negotiations for alternative financing. Are we done? Are there more? Why didn't LP say "this was one of the avenues we have been working on"
5. Data lock or collection has started? She could have said that. Would give us a general idea of timeline.
All my opinion, but the same short attack story line is in play....ambiguous, no certainty. And, as usual, shorts can say another year will be lost/wasted....
With any or some of these items discussed with any certainty, I believe we would be over .35 and moving up from there. Thus, eventually allowing warrant money to flow with some positive, regular PR updates.
This release, IMO, was another lost opportunity to SPELL IT OUT, once and for all. "Our goal is to release topline data on_______, then the goal is to release unblinded data by_______"
That is all it would take.....another fail. IMO.
If the stock was worth .30 yesterday and we have $47 Million more after this deal, even fully diluted at 800+ million shares, it should add .10-.20 per share, but there is not enough buying to get past .31
Good start to day but how much value does it add to the stock? And, LP said "parallel alternative financing options" this appears to be one, is there another? Does this let the wind out of the sails for a potential partnership or buyout? And, lastly, LP is non-committal for a timeline...."months of work" how many? Give a potential timeline for this, guess for God's sake.
A 5PM Press release today outlining the roadmap and timeline to unblinding would certainly get us over .35 tomorrow, IMO. And, a buyout announcement would get us over???
I don't know about BIG, but certainly doubled the days volume in the last 40 minutes, all upside. I would be expecting something if it were millions of shares, probably not at a several hundred thousand. I'd be thrilled if there is good news though..
My personal assertion is that they have not set a date for ASM due to potential news prior to year end. If they are in serious talks about any of the speculated "alternative financings" then it would make sense to have the release prior to ASM in order to discuss or answer questions on the strategy. BTW, I think we are down to less than 90 days for Bigger's out clause....
We know about as much about the SEC hanging around as AF knows about immunotherapy, nothing. Smith on Stocks analysis lays it out pretty clearly. Very detailed, covers the counterarguments, but still believes:Very promising results to date, more info needed (topline and unblinding), and low market cap (risky with upside).
Another week of speculation. Chris L with a sale of stock and what sounds like a no-love-lost relationship that is soured. Smith on stocks gone dark, nothing reported since early October, meaning post SNO. Bigger has gone dark after his Twitter reply to AF saying his point would be proven “in weeks”......I am hoping all of this is the calm before the storm. Just hoping is is a positive storm of buyout proportions.
But do you still believe in the science and efficacy?
I am in the buyout camp as well. Too many ducks lined up in a row. It's all about the timing now, IMO. Irrelevant where the PPS is today, i'm long and holding.
I would agree except for the expectation of news. I believe the technical view will be upended, one way or another. Very fragile emotional investing happening right now, IMO. No news, or anything other than clear positive news, would send us back down below 50 day quickly.
The market will tell us if there is something happening. If we continue to rise this week through old resistance (.32, and maybe .398) I think we will get some news. What it will be, who knows.
My sense it that while it may be a multi month process there will be info released along the way. I also believe that will include lock date, then top line data, then a few months later the unblinded analysis. With regard to potential deals, I believe there are substantive talks ongoing. Any BP would much rather pay $10 billion now with known data than $20 billion after unblinding. BP’s have scientists who are digging much more deeply than we can, with far more understanding, to given recommendations on the odds of success.
We will need a fairly aggressive buying push in the last hour to get through .30, keep getting pounded down from there. If we do get through and close there I might agree we are looking at more than just trading.
Thanks Tryn2, I didn't see any comments when I posted this but this timeline of events speaks to more positively to me than in the past.
I believe the price action is telling a story of news sooner rather than later. A confirmation breakout through .32 (six month high), on the way to new yearly high above .398 would be the clincher, IMO.
I disagree. NWBO does not have the infrastructure or experience to take this anywhere without help, and not just monetary help. If LP truly wants help patients, she HAS to do a deal. I think it would have been done already except for the delay in the trial completion. I believe her end game is to get clear indication of trial success data and then cash out, hand it over to BP to bring to market. That would be my preference, but the other alternative IMO is licensing deals.