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Got to sell it to republicans like Henserling and the public - and the claim will be Trump is paying off hedge fund buddies. So got to sell it hard imho
Donotunderstand, there is a pretty obvious reason or two:
First, they need docs, and/or court win, to really provide a good PR case to justify R&R;
Second, the decline in capital in 4Q would also provide a justification for R&R;
Lastly, I think Mnuchin wants congress to have had its chance at legislation so he can say "Congress blew this like healthcare -- so we act!", again this gives a justification for administrative R&R & takes us to 4Q.
So, I can look at things in a way that makes sense of the delay. We saw a little ramp-up in PR, then was shut down. I think they are waiting to get their ducks in a row... Or so I hope.
Otherwise, it is screw them and let's talk to SCOTUS.
Health care bill is dead.
Trump will need some achievement this year and throwing shade on Obama would help...
run Forest run LOL
run Forest run
Stinkie, appreciate your comments too.
Hoping we get what we deserve ;)
lol T
The Senator from Wells Fargo says there has recently been consolidation amongst those politicians and think-tanks owned by the Big Banks.
Shockingly, Corker says these politicians and think-tanks have consolidated around giving the Big Banks everything they want, leading to huge profits for these banks and huge costs for everyday Americans.
"Everyone who counts will be happy" Corker said.
Senator Corker is yet to provide a detailed plan, or show how it would replace Fannie and Freddie in delivering the only low cost, 30 year fixed mortgage available in any Western country.
But Corker revealed that the politicians and think-tanks owned by the Big Banks have consolidated around the view that "WTF, who cares as long as Wells Fargo profits go up -- they are going to screw orindary Americans one way or another anyway. Might as well be their mortgages".
Stinkie, the one stick that the TBTF bank lobby has is the narrative that "FnF caused the crisis". Seeing that narrative getting pushed hard means the bank lobby feels the need to defend its approach -- good signs imho since it means we are actively in the fight over what comes next.
John Paulson has given his approach -- and funded an actual, workable in-detail plan sketching out every step of the path.
The opposition?
Corker/Warner want to break up FnF, though they have no account of how that impacts a myriad of issues (Tim Howard noted just a couple on his blog that scupper the whole damn approach pretty damn quick -- this is not a telephone network lol)
MBA has -- so far as I know -- offered no detailed plan. MBA has just given us a list of negative assertions about FnF being so bad, and some wishes about what they say we need. Neither has been documented. Nothing detailed here either, and again the problems are obvious (Howard again has detailed them)
John Paulson has connections to the top of this administration. Paulson has funded a plan. The opposition can manage nothing -- and they have had 8 years after all.
Which is better politically for the Trump administration:
(A) let the backer for most of American's mortgages fall into trouble in 2018 due to lack of capital (can you imagine Biden or Sanders running with that in an election in the Rustbelt?);
(B) Implement the only plan out there AND hence show you can get things down -- hence implying it is the clowns in congress who are the problem (Trump is going to have to blame someone in the next campaign for the healthcare and tax reform failures...)
One thing I hope we see at some point, perhaps when Sweeney takes us to trial, but perhaps before then if Mnuchin starts to move, is a proper, full-on, scorch-the-earth airing of the docs in the FnF NWS implementation -- but if you go down that route you need to be able to line plaintiffs up for a settlement (otherwise no point going to trial since your PR campaign settled that case...). I really cannot see how Trump would pass up dragging Obama through the mud.
Ginsberg and Millet slowed us down, with their constructa-judgement destruction of legal frameworks to conservatorship and much else, but we will get there. (Anyone responding by pressing the "Ginsberg and Millet followed the law line" -- please don't bother since you are embarassing yourself since it is very, very obvious from the forced nature of the judgement that they started with their end-point and desperately did what was needed to get there -- consequences be damned and there is so much collateral legal damage/fallout as we are now beggining to see...)
Stinkie, lol
I think your horse is ready for the knackers yard this week -- I am watching the down trend waiting to buy some more.
I do not think we move higher till either (i) NWS is suspended by Watt, (ii) positive court ruling of any kind (ie Delaware, Sweeney goes to trial, docs etc), (iii) Mnuchin makes a move, (iv) other positive news.
Personally, I think Mnuchin is letting Corker/Warner have all the rope they want and they have hung themselves with it -- ie offering a bill garnering no support. Then Mnuchin can move forward...
I also think the failure of the republican Congress on health care, and I expect any radical tax reform, will leave Trump looking for a win that avoids the broken congressional caucases -- and Housing offers just such an option. Then Trump could use (a) docs to bash Obama and justify move and (b) congressional failures to justify moving forward adimistratively (and (c) Trump could contrast his success with congressional failure)
Darkest before dawn (though as McCain likes to say darkest before its pitch black too), I am hanging in for Sweeney and/or Scotus in 2018 and 2019. Anything before then is gravy...
LOL is all I can say...
So I give you an insight: FNMA over $20 by year end 2018...
Either after trial in Sweeney Court or R&R by Mnuchin (incl. settlement)
You are very welcome!
Thanks for the good insight lol
Sweeney is scheduled to go to trial in 2018 -- IF she does not dismiss
So I have no idea what you are talking about -- either dismissal or trial will have come by end of 2018
I am quite hopeful of Sweeney, it is very, very hard for me to see how the NWS is not a seizure by the government without proper compensation and hence violates constitutional protections...
NB I avoided the technical legal ways of putting the point, but the underlying issue is fairly clear to my mind and the FnF lawyers are good enough to overcome the technicalities and put that point.
I also think Sweeney's behaviour suggests she takes the government to have overstepped -- and I am VERY Happy to see this go to SCOTUS and the right wing justices there on appeal. If the government does not settle by then they risk a huge payout on a SCOTUS judgement against them
Cool... now we need to hear Rick is good too.
God bless you both.
There is no need, but the contorted, artificial nature of that judgement point to such a modus operandi. That judgement will hang around Judge Ginsberg's neck for the rest of his career. You are responsible for your actions.
Judge Brown will be vindicated on this and much else by SCOTUS.
Judge Ginsberg will be roasted for his producing a judgement to fit the goal of vindicating Obama rather than following the law and constitution.
Look at the dogs dinner of a mess Epstein shows Ginsberg made of who should get damages and why - hard to see this as guided by anything other than neutering damage claims. Shameful, shameful stuff except for a judge who views himself as having political goals...
Judge Brown reminds us there is another kind of judge...
Yeah, that is Corkie's MO - but now he would be screwing republican admin. So such a rider would not be one leadership will easily let go...
I do. The big overhang now is whether the senatorial gse killers, Corker and Warner, can get legislation through. I think not, but that is an existential threat potentially...
I just think it good not get your hopes up over anything that is not a court win or settlement talks...
Heading to the airport and vacation soon, potty
Stinkie, still long. ?? Three weeks of vacation in UK starting tomorrow so cannot complain. I will chill there.
Nothing doing imho till Sweeney or Delaware rule - then real fireworks. (IMHO Watt not making NWS doesn't even get us past $3... )... sp move and settlement talks...
See you in three weeks, best potty
Steady, we take any help offered...
Beggars cannot, as they say, be choosers
I agree Navy, was thinking about adding more, but I have plenty and want to keep some cash handy in case we have a real panic -- where I could get an uber-cheap price...
I agree about the background, at some point the Wall street sheople will also stampede into the stock..
The lesson we have all learned is that Federal judges do whatever the hell they want and to whatever the hell timetable that pleases them...
So, no, there is no mandated timetable for when we get a ruling... If Judge Ginsberg is involved it will take months since he will slowly pull some complex fabrication out of his ass. Ginsberg has to go slow, since his contorted judgements could cut, or tear, him as he pulls them out of his anal tract.
Well, now we know what is depressing the price.
The key issue is whether Corker, Crapo and Warner can garner enough votes for GSE legislation which does away with GSE and/or private investors?
I would think the history suggests not -- they have failed on any legislation in the past. PLUS the congress is now more heavily partisan. PLUS the GSE investors will be lobbying other GOP senators...
I just do not see this passing -- but the threat will depress the price until we see failure in the Fall. (To be honest, they could not even get to a vote on this in the Fall - but the numbers for and against maybe clear by then and kill it...).
And Corkie may try to weasel something else into the debt ceiling extension or somewhere else to screw us over...
I am sending money to anyone who runs in the primary against Corker BTW... come what may. And if I cash in on GSE's, that will be a max contribution from me and my company.
Clark, more sellers than buyers explains the SP. What I wanted to explain was why there were MORE shorts than usual on Friday... Why did so many short Friday? Crush suggests they were shorting because only getting 3500 docs - so far -- was viewed as negative.
Not sure about that since this is a rolling situation, from hereon the gov produces more docs and/or reasons why a doc should not be produced working through the 6500... Stuff is going to come out soon and/or we see Sweeney looking at docs the government witholds.
BUT question is whether Treasury and Justice have coordinated enough so that the Trump administration has taken an explicit stance on what and why certain docs should be released... Trump might like some "smoking guns" establishing Obama admin knew there were profits coming and still instituted NWS -- contrary to sworn testimony of various figures (many of whom are now lobbying for demise of FnF).
I would love to see some of the former officials of FHFA, Treasury and Housing, or other Obama appointees, get caught in their lies -- maybe someone might look at their previous actions and present lobbying activities, or even their connections? Someone now at Justice Department who wanted some Obama payback that has real substantive basis?
Wow, they were working really hard and took advantage of buyers... such a low price to be shorting - why? Keeping price down for quiet accumulation?
Frustrating indeed... but lots of good signs now.
Best sign: Why did Corker come out of a private dinner with Trump so pissed he then broke the cardinal rule and attacked Trump?
There is a plan and a will here, Trump is going to recap and release - with a blaze of fire hitting Obama
We have a plan now and a real PR campaign ramping up...
Hang tight. Long way to go... 2-3 years to realize the good profits, but think we see better SP by year's end
Make it 3 years and you may be right...
Selling the hangover of government stock will take a while and if AIG is anything to go by then higher SP's only reached after that.
BTW Moelis is sand-bagging by putting capital requirement for a bank in their presentation. This keeps the SP down in their projections. BUT far less capital is needed for FnF business, so cut the capital required and raise the SP by same proportion..
However, VERY smart to use high capital requirements since then "hedge funds" are only shown as earning reasonable SP -- but I think it is double or triple the projected short term SP of 8-13
Clark, since you cannot know this it is clear you are just making stuff up for whatever end.
You have no credibility sorry, this is a clearly false statement. Docs showing government acyed other than has been represented to Judge Sweeney (and other courts) will be a very, very big deal. Our President may also be very interested in housing month, best, Potty
True, but I think the common gets to 20, 30, eventually 40 once government done selling and FNF back on her feet...
Nice proposal
If we get a legal win in Delaware or Sweeney court, then the terms get sweeter...
It is called a settlement... sanctioned by judge.
No, no, no..
Proposal does not say that -- just says two new equity raises of $40 billion each.
.
The proposal is for two new equity raises of $40 billion each.
Do a horrible back of the envelope on the train calculation...
At a conservative price of $20 per share for the raises, that gives us 4 billion new shares on top of the 5 billion with all government warrants exercised.
Taking a conservative estimate of the company as worth $220 billion, I get EXISTING common worth around $20 at the end the day... (Pref is worth par by now too..)
But my guess is common get preferential treatment in equity raise, ie lower price, and/or warrants of some kind (Ackman loves those...). And I also think companies worth more that $220 billion.
So, upside to the $20...
Please go to a board relevant to your interests
Wrong board as usual -- go reassure yourself on the FNMAS board please.
Bye
Driving clown cars in the government case.Really?
If I screwed up in these kinds of ways, I would face real consequences... Pretty embarassing.
Don3, you have to distinguish (A) release of docs to the plaintiffs lawyers (not even sure clients are allowed to see them) and (B) public release of the docs.
Sweeney only ordered (A), I assume Bradford is referring to (B).
Likewise, though I am working a lot of it lol
Stinkie, see where we are after (i) docs are released and digested; (ii) Delaware trial and judgement; (iii) Sweeney decides we have case; (iv) we go to trial in Sweeney Court of Claims...
Then we see where we are, and what the Mnuchin/Trump plan is, and why Corker spat the dummy.
Think it through...
Mnuchin and Trump need cover from the massive TBTF PR campaign run thru stooges like Corker, MBA etc. The docs provide the real story -- a SCANDAL in fact -- that can be made public. THAT then gives cover to enter talks...
Tho a court win is what we really need -- that is YOU Delaware!
So, the political reality is, no, they cannot just release -- they need cover... and it is coming.
Likewise Navy...
Nice to see the Captain will go down with my ship IF she goes down...
A thought: We have 11,000 documents coming -- would Mnuchin and Trump play their cards close to their chests till someone gives them a VERY BIG stick?
I think they would -- I am looking forward to the docs... I really am. And Treasury knows what is in them too.
Lol
Nice work