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Market action:
I wish I had more confidence this broad market rally will continue but I don't. Margin calls from Friday are due tomorrow,
Hopfully AMRN will begin to show more immunity against further market deterioration. I'd love it if we had a leak or two or some news here to keep the momentum following through.
I rest my case.
Results leaking out??
September $5.00 call open interest has doubled today.
Thanks Zip,
I'm sorry if I came across that way. Kiwi has gone overboard with his snide responses to those of us who are long AMRN. I just don't see how that is a process of due diligence simply to determine when he should go long (he's made 3857 posts). He's a contrarian, maybe he truly thinks he can scare us all to "one side of the boat" so he can justify pulling the trigger?
Hard to say, but 160 posts (most snide and derrogetory) from the sidelines is strange to me. There has to be an agenda
"Brexit is NOT 1987"
Kiwi (and JL), you seem very opinionated about Brexit -vs- October 19th, 1987, like you know what you're talking about.
Care to comment on Greenspan's viewpoint?
On Friday afternoon, after the shocking Brexit referendum, while being interviewed by CNBC Alan Greenspan stunned his hosts when he said that things are about as bad as he has ever seen.
"This is the worst period, I recall since I've been in public service. There's nothing like it, including the crisis — remember October 19th, 1987, when the Dow went down by a record amount 23 percent? That I thought was the bottom of all potential problems. This has a corrosive effect that will not go away. I'd love to find something positive to say."
“I am not short AMRN”
Whale,
Brexit is almost nothing like 1987
BC,
Market has to move down at least another 1500 points, to match February lows! Once again FFS AMRN Charts have hit a snag.
I disagreed that it would drop to 1.85 :)
Did I not say there was strong support at 2.00?
Disagree. I added at 2.00 pre-market. Very strong technical support there
Raf, can always count on your smart-A response. Next one.. in the back of your shorts. As for AMRN, will suffer collateral technical damage from margin calls, but the breakout support should hold. That means it will continue to erupt, just going to take some time now.
The markets telegraphed danger dead ahead. Here's what I responded to BC on 6/16:
BC, It's been a strong market for a long time. I'm concerned the major indexes haven't been able to take out previous swing highs (in April and June). Now we are moving into a seasonal period that is typically weak for equities - especially Tech. Also, the VIX has spiked 80% in the past 2 weeks in response to seemingly bad news at every turn. With the economy weakening, and the disastrous political situation, I see investors more willing to sell at resistance versus buy at support right now. That being said, we are sitting on support and the charts are telling us to expect a healthy bounce in the next few days.
Haven't moderated a bit. The current light volume pullback is an impressive set up to resume the +89% price appreciation from the February bottom - especially given the sharp selloff in world markets lately. That post is spot on. if you'd like, I can share another volcano picture lest you think my view has changed :)
Kiwi If you are so afraid of dilution, why weren’t you hedged when you were long?
The stock has bounced a whopping +89.5% off the February bottom and of the 140m shares long, not too many are hedging with puts. PUT open interest is minuscule. However, CALL open interest continues to climb as the clock ticks toward the interim announcement.
Aside from a few weak longs who have taken profits, overall consensus views current price action as an overbought pullback on top of major support. Once OB conditions bleed off, the PPS will turn and burn shorts once again.
IMHO the sentiment has changed, making the prospects of dilution (whenever it happens) more of a bullish event versus bearish. The charts think so too.
Moby's gone sour.
What other catalyst would drive this stock higher before Interim ?
Anyone ?
When is the anticipated "run up to interim " , if there is one ...supposed to start ?
BC, It's been a strong market for a long time. I'm concerned the major indexes haven't been able to take out previous swing highs (in April and June). Now we are moving into a seasonal period that is typically weak for equities - especially Tech. Also, the VIX has spiked 80% in the past 2 weeks in response to seemingly bad news at every turn. With the economy weakening, and the disastrous political situation, I see investors more willing to sell at resistance versus buy at support right now. That being said, we are sitting on support and the charts are telling us to expect a healthy bounce in the next few days.
JMHO
0-3 days
JL thinks the 'puts' were nothing out of the ordinary:
I don't think the "big put" is any mystery at all...It was perfectly reasonable hedge on a binary situation...not some FDA leak...Facts are I was kicking myself for not having done it myself. (talking about the AdComm and not Paulson)..
":>) JL
Marzan, the broad market has been down 4 days in a row and likely to be 5. Yesterday’s intra-day reversal was very ugly. Meanwhile, AMRN has only fluctuated $.02 between the open-close the past 3 days while holding support – that is bullish relative strength IMO.
It is still bleeding off overbought conditions. Note the MACD line crossover in the chart below (pink highlights).
This event led to big selloffs in the past. Not this time (so far).
The 30 min chart shows momentum building during this tight consolidation as the Bollinger bands narrow:
I think we see more of the same today until the broad market / world markets calm down and the VIX (fear index) stops rising.
It also refuses to break down or slide past support. Selling is being adsorbed...
"Tower, AMRN is holding short of the runway, ready for takeoff."
Thanks HD! Hey Kiwi...
K-
Furthermore, you missed (... ?) the "most important" thing:
Quote:
Target LDL: <100 mg/dL (<70 mg/dL in patients with previous cardiovascular events)
AMRN is winning a poker game with other lipid lowering drugs. Niacin and Fibrate folded, while AMRN shows an ace with the weekend PR. On the heels of the NCE announcement, the street will begin to consider the possibility that AMRN has another ace (R-IT) – and potentially a full house that will win the CVD reduction pot.
I don’t think I have seen very many AMRN PRs like this show up Monday morning on InPlay from Briefing.com or FlyOnthewall.com, Yahoo, etc.. Just wait until the street puts two and two together and realizes the multiple beneficial effects of EPA.
Wallstreet just received a big hint today about the few remaining cards we’re holding.
P.S. Too much bearish sentiment on this board (and in the market in general) the past few days. I smell a rebound soon.
RAFUNRAFUN, the volcano is very much alive.
This is what I wrote in a response to Marzan yesterday,
Good chance this breakout will be retested (pullback) sometime in the next few weeks.
Bidmark, please provide quote.
I did not say that.
That study aside, it is a known fact that DHA has therapeutic, as well as CVD harmful properties, agree?
EPA nullifies high LDL, as shown in the JELIS trial, agree?
If you were a CEO of GSK, wouldn't you try and defend your drug using these findings? Look no further than the DS market and how they get away with stretching their claims.
I'm sure AMRN management is aware of this and will douse any such claims by competitors by promoting the vast superiority of purified EPA which gives you all that and then some, without the CVD side effects.
We've been indoctrinated to believe EPA is superior to EPA + DHA because of the diminished rise in LDL. But JL has effectively explained, using the JELIS study, that despite the rise in LDL ("fuel"), EPA nullifies the ill effects by lowering the "thermostatic" membrane receptors, preventing oxidation -> inflammation.
This question came to mind: If, as pointed out in Zu's post today, DHA has therapeutic effects, then could Lovaza and Generic Lovaza use this evidence to claim superiority? Could they piggy-back on the R-IT results and rob a chunk of V's market?
(sorry just read post #82644 after I posted this. I think Zumantu just answered this in his response to Marzan)
Zumantu, There is some interesting current research directed at PH levels and the correlative impact on plaque formation and attachment. I'm wondering how EPA affects these mechanisms? I'll look up those articles and mine for info.
Thanks again :)
Thanks HD! Wow... what an organized, well thought out analysis.
Marzan, I agree with you. I might add, that if you intend to double your current calls, add in half incrementally and wait for a pullback to add in the other half. Good chance this breakout will be retested (pullback) sometime in the next few weeks. I wouldn't get too greedy. a little will make a lot if we get the favorable interim read. In the mean time you'll be able to sleep at night :)
JMHO
Thanks JL. Sounds like it could be an effective prescription dentifrice or mouth wash. Perhaps it can help some of my filthy little teenage ortho patients who never brush and have gingival enlargement so severe I can't see the braces!
Thanks Zumantu! Very interesting article. Sounds like healing balm for the compromised periodontium. I will share this with my perio buddies.
I'm also going to encourage my son to do a study with EPA relative to tooth movement :)
FFS
JL, I am an orhodontist and have a son who is a current resident looking for a research topic for his masters degree. Do you think EPA would be beneficial in enhancing bone metabolism in the mechanics of tooth movement? Perhaps in patients with preexisting periodontal disease?
Also, can I write off label Rx's for patients with intra-capsular arthritic temperomandibular dysfunction?
Thanks. Thank you for all the information you have shared over the years.
FFS
HD, in your opinion, has the DMC had sufficient time analyzing the data to get a feel for what the indicated efficacy is likely to be? If not, when would you project that insider knowledge to occur?
I'm watching the open interest in the July, Aug, Sept, and Dec calls for sharp changes that might indicate some form of leak. If someone is privy to this knowledge, they'll want to capitalize by making the most with less through call options.
TIA, FFS
Marzan, today's price action was completely normal.
ffs, any inferences on today's pps manipulation/ mutilation??
What's your point?
The run up in early 2015 was due to some very fundamental events .
Care to remind us of what those were ?
Agree, well said. I might add that one should never sell out just because it’s gone up XX% or because it is overbought. Short squeeze induced runs don’t usually end until they exhaust themselves on heavy volume as prices surge to extremes, similar to what we saw February – March 2015 (highlighted area)
Note how the stock stayed overbought (RSI - green highlight) for over a month as volume continued to ramp up. Even after momentum was spent and the pps had topped out (A), it still managed to retest the top on inertia (B). That’s the time to sell.
We are in a similar short squeeze right now and I don’t expect it to end for awhile. It may even continue until interim. As it all unfolds, don’t be surprised to see some big players grab a position or new firms initiate coverage with higher price targets. Buying will continue to feed on buying as the price rise sets up multiple technical events such as a golden cross (orange circled area). This is what we have waited for, gotta trust it.