is... a buy and hold investor of dividend US and Canadian stocks
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is that some kind of strategy to drive the price down, or am I thinking too hard? .... can't imagine any logic behind that. maybe these guys sometimes have compelling reasons to sell for cash flow reasons of something. maybe they had shorted it? not sure..
anyway.. once I saw a useless stock rocket up to .32 from .05. big volume. Never did find out why. It was very weird.
Thanks! I had never perused a level 2 quote before. Anyway, so ARCA is just a nickname someone was using to trade? or does it mean something more? What is an "enc" in other message.?
what is ARCA?
I was thinking that from a Supply-and-Demand point of view... these new locations will bring in new investors, increasing Demand... as they have brought new input to this board.
but... I would chalk up the recent downtrend to the overall downtrend in the market, nothing more. We saw some good volume about a week, 2 weeks ago, which did not materialize in a price increase. It should have. The indicators are up, showing it as OverSold. Since there is no reason for the price decrease, the only conclusion that can be drawn is that it is Oversold. The basic facts about uWink have not changed. It would appear that the speculators are not in this time. Maybe again because of the overall market conditions.
In actual fact, uWInk has faired fairly well compared to other stocks. For example, PTS (Canadian) is a fairly well-known promising hitech stock. It is down to 1.25 from 4.00 at Xmas. And there is no fundamental reason why. In fact, the earnings were up last report and will be still better this time. Just turned profitable. Conditions right now are such that it is better to simply sit on the sidelines and not be in at all. One thing about your post that you are alluding to is simply making too many decisions and trading too often.
I say give it some time to reflect the strength the indicators says it has.
perfectly right. It is impossible to tell what a stock is going to do. These boards are full of theories, likely none of which are true. i made such a bundle the first time, I can't help but hope it will happen again, but that is all it is.. hope.. has not transpired. Almost every time I think I can predict price movement.. wrong again!
maybe the reason why no media is that they had the big media party last week or something, so it is over and done with... maybe last time was a combined thing... regular crowd plus media.
how many people there.... what kind of people? what are they doing?
how many people there.... what kind of people? what are they doing?
That video is great. Motivational. I think it is important to focus on what will make them successful, if you happen to believe in those things. These bloggers are focussed on the wrong things. Anybody can walk in off the street and criticize something they do not understand or are not into. I may not be an expert on their strategy, but I believe the food, while good, is just to get people in the door. I believe the gaming is where they intend to make the big bucks. I have heard of some big bills for (food + games) exceeding $100 or $200.
One thing that occurs to me is that not only has uWink selected locations where there is guaranteed walk-in traffic and touristy areas, they have also selected areas where people have ALOT OF MONEY. Silicon Valley? something technological.. hmm. I have often observed people in casinos gambling and wondered ... why? These are some pretty smart people, blowing 100K on a weekend doing something basically irrational and saying it was all worth it. Something to do with the illusion of grandeur.. let's hope uWink cashes in somewhat on that same phenomenon, the illusion of .. something.
That plus the power of Marketing. i am not a very good salesman. I do know how important it is, it is just not my thing. I don't think we can judge uWink's sucess until it has some time to market itself.
Anyway, not sure what to make of the stock, but the volumes have been fairly low. The market has not really spoken yet. I really hope this video sets the positive tone from here on out.
Wanted to add a comment to this post about how I would suppose further financing would go. I think they would do a debt financing, not an equity one. Therefore it would not impact investors in terms of dilution or Reverse Split. Now, I have no experience in Corporate Finance, and this is just my opinion. Right off the top of my head. Just provoking commentary.
uWink is like many high-tech companies in that they have no debt. This is not normal or even healthy for most companies in terms of a capital structure, but fairly common for hi-tech companies. For most companies a debt/equity ratio of around .5 would be normal. Again, I am just guessing. Financing purely by equity is not the norm. Debt provides more stable working capital than equity does.. increases the earnings available to shareholders.
For high-tech companies it is different. The reasons are; they don't have the usual requirements for capital that companies have, that is, capital investment requirements, bricks and mortar, manufacturing facilities, the like. Their major expense is salaries, their only really important capital their intellectual property (people). Therefore they do not need alot of capital. The banks don't want them either. As a startup they have no positive cash flow to finance debt. They also have nothing to liquidate (assets) in case the bank wants their money back. They are worth nothing in terms of liquidation value. Hence, until they are successful they tend to be cash-strapped, as this poster has described, and limited in their financing options.
But if they make it.. that is another story. Once they start to bring in revenue they often hoard it because they do not know what to do with it. Software is incredibly profitable once a solid product is successful in the market. Then the banks want their business, and the company does not need it! Night and day. Often they grow by acquisition. Why develop technology when you can simply buy it? All this leads to management chaos in addition to the symptoms the poster describes. I have worked for several software companies.. know the story. Buy territory, buy markets, buy customer lists, buy software.. worry about integration later.The trick for the investor is picking the ones that will make it. Unless they continue to innovate and develop new product (invest their money wisely) they become attractive takeover targets (still not bad for the investor)
Anyway, uWink is in the stage where it has been cash-strapped and is trying to break out of that style. Establish "critical mass". Up until now they have not had the cash flow to finance debt. Had to go to the market. With 3 restaurants I would guess that they would not have to go that route. Revenue from 3 restaurants will stabilize the Income Statement. Debt, financed with the new revenue, stabilizes the Balance Sheet.
I would guess then that if they wanted to expand they could fairly easily, by repeating the model. The best way ( and the only responsible way for the shareholders) would be to issue debt, not equity. As long as they remained profitable, they would be fine. And looking at the financial performance of their restaurants, that would not be hard. All they have to do is borrow a few Million.. build restaurants.. 3 more restaurants doubles their cash flow.. no problem.
Anyway, just thoughts. I am curious about other opinions as to how they would grow (if they wanted more company-owned restaurants).
One thing about what the poster said.. as long as the long term continues to looks good? the price movements this stock has made as the financing occurred have not been fun for anybody..
Yes, I have always felt lucky to be able to get in on an opportunity like this as public investors, especially the first go-round. Most events like this would be completely owned by insiders and institutions (private equity). some very good observations here....
I like simple menus in restaurants. Makes the choice easier, and they are usually very well done. Fits what they are trying to do (keep the customer occupied, getting them in the door, and focussing on games).
glad the stock somewhat recovered today.
I don't get where they say that "each location" will take 12-18 months to get cash flow positive. The Woodland Hills location on it's own is already cash flow positive. Quite. The others, you could extrapolate maybe 3 months, given that the other location took about that long. I think they meant their whole operation to get cash flow positive in that time frame, not each location. And I can't even find that quote in the article..
Anyway, maybe I misunderstand.. why did the stock go down today? when will it go up? maybe in 2 weeks,,,?
while your basic thought may be correct (they may not have enough money to open more restauratns without going to the market), you are overstating the cost of the restaurants they have. H&H cost them 1MM. MV will cost another 1MM (guessing). Their main problem to-date is that they so not have operating income, in fact an operating loss. This will be corrected when the third place is up and running. They have I think 5MM in the bank now, so another restaurant is probably possible, it is just that franchising is more lucrative.
I have not tried to forecast their Balance Sheet/Income Statement after MV is open... got to factor in some operating losses as the new places build their business, and the 1MM for mV.
I don't think I meant to single out seniors. I am 40+. I do think there is an interesting parallel between ATMs and the ordering technology at uWink, and self-serve checkouts at food stores. But I don't think that is what will being them back to uWink. I think the gaming will, and it does not have to be technically superior to do that. The games have to catch on, even if they are games that could be played on a piece of cardboard.
So how does good ol' Arnie feel about gay marriage? I heard some things about him you know. Remember that scene in Terminator when he walked across the pavement after "gettin' in" to take the clothes off of those guys? Apparently he enjoyed doing that... and you know about those bodybuilder types eh? training together..
I think he is a "GIRLY MAN"!! I bet I could beat him in an arm wrestle. They don't call me The Big Guy for nothing you know.
he is an Austrian girlie man.
The whole concept of gay marriage started in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. Much like the first black president... a milestone in diversity.
whether or not you have a good point, why don't you stop and think about what you are saying for a second...
you have got to watch out on the internet? for "pushers"? we should be paranoid?
I think you are taking this a tad more seriously than you should.. your decisions are your own.
nice little writeup. fairly objective. Notice he did not say that the place was going nuts or anything, but he did say that it was more popular than other restaurants in the place. That in itself is a good thing.
As for little old ladies who do not like the technology, let's make a comparison to something very familiar. Ever seen a senior get frustrated at an ATM? ATMs are taken for granted now by 99% of the population, and customers are encouraged to use them by the banks. That is a perfect example of a similar device in another industry. What about self-serve payout stations in grocery stores. ditto. Some people will never like them, but some technology catches, some does not, and there will always be detractors. Can you imagine not having ATMs? I am not sure if this idea will be a hit or not, but I would not worry about the odd person that can't handle it. He is appealing to a crowd that wants convenience and speed.
The other thing that I noted about this and Raw's other post is that people had smiles on their faces. This plays to the other KSF, and that is addiction to gaming. Whether or not you are talking about gambling, video games, or Nolan's social gaming, it is based on addiction. Some will laugh at this, but I am somewhat addicted to video games.. in recent years computer games, usually based on warfare. Battlefield 2 has been my latest crutch. I realized years ago that the graphics quality was so good that it was really fun to play. And technically, keeping track of all of those bullets, projectiles, vehicles, and avatars... as a former simulation engineer, it is incredible. The opponent could be some 10-year-old in China, but that is besides the point. I need my fix. Everybody will try a new restaurant once because of the food or the simple fact that it is new. What will bring them back is a desire to play the games. I think Nolan is well aware of this. You don't need to tell me that he thinks modern gaming sucks (wargaming and the like). I know that. I like his social gaming concept, it is just that there is nothing like it in Canada. I think it is great. Don't expect it to be a success overnight though. Let's hope that the din of success grows over the next few weeks leading up to the MV opening... and the stock responds in kind.
I myself am a little concerned about the lack of movement in the stock price. Would have expected differently. However, it took the first restaurant 3 months to get going. The volume peaked at month 3. And that was in a mall location. So, I say give it a chance. With the overall downward trend right now, they are holding their own. Look for action after the Grand Opening next week and resulting PR.
As has been discussed, a back-of-the-envelope calculation has them breaking even after 3 months... I would not expect them to push with more corporate-owned restaurants. Their stated strategy has changed in this respect. Frankly, if they want to make money franchising down the road... they do not need to. These two locations are prime..
that stuff has been on the website forever...
I am curious to know more about it.... If you canprovide more information or links I would be interested. thanks.
I must know... did you write that yourself? or is it copied from somewhere.. it is very deep.
I guess I don't see when this particular trading strategy would be used. Perhaps when a stock is at a level and the trader wants to get in at the beginning of an upward swing, but they don't know when it is going to happen.
I would not use it for this stock right, was just wondering the thinking behind it. I figure the stock is in an upward swing right now, and it is pretty obvious.
But then again, nothing is predictable..
what does "AON order mean".. ahh... all or nothing... had to think about that. I don't think that would necessarily be linked to high volume... more likely low volume orders, in order to make the fees worthwhile.
That is what I thought you meant... but I don't see why you would do that. don't see the reasoning behind that ordering strategy. Buy at market when it hits 2:00 and 1.75? why? why not now, if you think it is going to get there.
The only other type of order beyond the basics (Buy/Sell, Buy/Sell Limit, Buy/Sell Stop, Buy/Sell Stop limit) I have seen is a moving Stop. Stop price moves up as price moves up, ie. price minus .xx.
what is your reasoning?
agree. There are very few occasions when you KNOW something is going to happen that will drive the stock up. Usually it is a crap shoot.. especially around earnings annoucements.
I had that happen with CIBC in Canada. I was trading away and suddenly got a phone call rejecting a trade. No reason given other than, "it is OTC... low volume, risky, just don't want to do it". They were not telling me the real reason. Also, this cannot be a registered (retirement) stock in Canada...
One buyer or one trade? I assume that a "block trade" is when the MM assembles a bunch of orders together from different Buyers/Sellers and calls it a block trade, from/to it's inventory. So My guess is it is not one buyer, but really a total of 90K shares. What indicates it was one buyer/seller?
The trading today seems a bit weird compared to the past. Usually that kind of volume results in more of a price swing. I am not sure how the Market Makers work, but could it be that they were a bit unprepared for the demand, and hence did not set a fair market price that balanced Supply and Demand? Just seems strange, I would have expected the price to go up more on 90K shares. If they maintain an inventory and had to draw it down.. perhaps the stock will open higher tomorrow? and I suppose that this would not have happened in an electronic trading scenario... but I am just guessing..
The real question is: are you in? Seems to me that...
oops.. sorry. Got hit by a bus (damn cloaking device!)
any rational person would buy now. It has been at a level for some time now. Whether you get in at 1.35 or 1.45 or 1.37 really does not matter much. With event about to unfold which will impact the stock... one would have to be totally closed-minded not to get in now.
My scenario goign forward is to try to hold until the Opening party for the MV restaurant. I figure that will be when the stock peaks. Then... Diversify! Notice I did not say Sell..
I will help ya Raw!!! after all, I have always felt we were on the same page... and I know underneath it all you have always valued my contributions.
Just trying to inject a little humor. After all, things were just fine, and you went and reignited the discussion. Had to vent, I guess...
It was quite hilarious.. I had been told by my mechanic that he had not been able to blow through a fuel filter because it was so clogged. Well, I simply forgot that it would indeed be full of fuel, immediately after being taken out of the vehicle.
If you want we could tell stories of the stupidest trades we have ever done. It would be agreat discussion, perhaps a bit too direct for some folks...
anyway, I am done with sucking, blowing, of any kind.
Like I said bud there was no sucking of anything involved. Just a little blowing... that is different. It is just that there happened to be gas inside the fuel filter under investigation and the outlet nozzle was just under my nostril. My hard luck... but at least I am out there workin' on the beast. I am not a sheep that waddles down to the garage to get it up the ass..
btw we are talking about a 73 Datsun 240Z here... a classic... from just outside of LA, your turf.
cool!
It would be my guess that they would open to the public before then (a soft opening). That is what they did last time... the Grand Opening came later. Idea would be to make sure everything works before the Grand Opening. Just my thoughts... what was that expression... "maybe in 2 weeks"?
I must apologize for my cloaked attacks. Thing is, I am actually a Klingon Warrior. I keep my cloaking device on my belt right beside my cellphone. (and beside my calculator..). Sometimes I go to make a call.. and damn it all if I am not invisible. No one is listening to me.. and I don't know when I am pissing people off. Not a good thing.
Much like the Marine is WW2 (this is a true story) who reached for a grenade and came up with nothing but.. the pin. All he could do was turn away... and he blew his ass off (BMAO).
all he could say was "what a recruit thing to do". btw I am always greatful for the true warriors (veterans) among us.
Long live the Empire.. death to the Federation.
Are you kidding?..,. well truth is no one really knows. But, look at who is starring in it.. if something like this makes it to the box office there will be no need to have uWink in the movie at all. Everyone will want to know what he is doing now. It will create all kinds of favorable press. Everybody will want to check it out. Could be huge.. I never expected this turn of events. Quite spectacular.
and he is opening in Hollywood? coincidence? .. lol..