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I agree with that caveat, and in fact, that is why I wrote the question the way I did. It's healthy to occasionally reflect upon the difference between traders and investors.
Think Oppenheimer will be buying the rest of this week? Oh yeah, sure you betchya.
The Jedi Returns. NWBO refutes AF.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/nw-bio-refutes-false-claims-135900098.html
Here is my take. Linda Powers foreshadowed something when she said chemotherapy eventually kills the immune system. Note to self: Dendritic cells, T-Cells, Antibodies, etc are important constituents in our immune system. At first, however, chemotherapy can be synergistic with dendritic therapy.
Hyperthermia is not new to the world, and Pub Med has many studies confirming the need to further investigate this treatment. At a minimum, it definitely has demonstrated the ability to reduce tumor growth in some cancers.
It is my recollection, which isn't perfect, that Mistletoe cuts off blood supply to tumors. Very recently, as in last night (thanks to John's post), OXGN just had a successful phase 2 cancer trial with a synthetic drug that, wait for it, cuts off blood supply.
Germany as a country has a very robust and well regarded holistic medical approach.
I do not share the same concerns as Dok regarding Dr. Gorter's competitive results, because while he is using the same or similar platform as DCVAX-L on an experimental basis, he started after NWBO and he has no patents. He also seems supportive of NWBO on his website and in his references to trials in these areas. I'd be surprised if they don't collaborate at some level.
If I were dying of GBM before late June of last year, I would have flown to see Gorter. I bet you would have too.
I think this is the last opportunity for shorts to cover. IMHO
I did not find any link between Gorter and Israel.
My assessment is that he is an alternative medicine practitioner. When one works in disciplines slightly outside the mainstream doctrine, the mainstream guardians feel threatened. Thus they go on the offensive and try to lower the practitioner's credibility. I don't question the statistics Gorter gave. I think Germany would have questioned them some time ago if they were inaccurate. IMHO.
To my knowledge there is another interim look at 88 events, and a final look at 112 events. These looks may be moot if the DMC finds statistical efficacy for the current (66 event) review.
At the 88th event, they can review the statistical powering to see if they need to increase the size of the group -- IMHO that modification possibility is relatively unlikely. However, if it occurred, I'm not certain which group they would adjust -- the pseudo-progression or the primary-endpoint group.
But I repeat myself.
(Note reference to Oppenheimer in the connecting post)
The 8 year old compassionate use program in Israel does use DCVAX-L.
Yes, I'd go with E as well. E encompasses C, because C is inherently part of the due diligence required in E.
Glad to see you alive and kicking Austin. You might want to let Hodge know how a stellar family can pass a day or two on the outskirts of Houston. Get some rest.
Maybe this is still too soon. After 85 years. I'll say it anyways. It warms my heart that Israel and Germany are on the same page regarding their attempts to secure an effective treatment for cancer and comeuppance to death.
A simple survey:
Which has more effect on stock price?
A. A written article with decent distribution.
B. A video recommendation with fabulous distribution.
C. A company press release.
D. A written article supported by a video recommendation.
E. An accurate analysis regarding the current status of a company.
I hope you get to see some sights in Texas during your travels. There are several natives on this message board. I'm not one of them. Perhaps they could offer a few suggestions.
I'm still buckled up, but I could use a catheter. Sorry, I don't usually stoop to fourth grade humor. Anyway, I think you are right. It will be a bumpy ride.
It's a small world after all -- and as you know, parts of Central Africa are also following NWBO. I think the ramifications of NWBO's potential reach hit me when somebody posted that NWBO signed an agreement of understanding with the Red Cross to help NWBO handle blood draws in remote areas.
I am fairly certain Linda Powers is in touch with critical people in government and science around the planet to make certain people will be able to access this treatment if and when it succeeds.
Cheers to NWBO logistics!
Good to see you. I can't give you a historical rundown on companies that give a safety result and release the efficacy decision later.
It is my impression that while NWBO reached the 66 events for the main group, they had to wait a little longer for a smaller unknown event number to occur in the Pseudo-progression group (this is not a known number, but I would estimate they'd want about 19 events in that group.) There are also international considerations…i.e. Germany, as we just saw, is now able to negotiate the seminal price-point for DCVAX-L before the DMC decision comes down.
I don't think people understand how critical it is to arrive at a keystone price-point before NWBO hits triple figures. If you've followed this company for a number of years, or at least read and watched their presentations, they really do want to have an affordable treatment for people around the world. What is negotiated in Germany will reverberate around the world…other countries will use their own GDP and other factors to then calculate their price point -- and Germany's price-point will be the keystone in their equation. If, at the time of negotiations, NWBO had too much leverage as a behemoth with a 200 PPS, they would almost be required by shareholders to charge more than is reasonable to patients and governments around the world. So it is best for everyone, including the company, IMHO, to get the price nailed down before we skyrocket.
The pseudo-progression group event number and the price point are very critical matters. If and when the phase III data come back as I expect, NWBO must know who to treat (subtypes) and how much to charge, depending upon the patient's location in the world, IMHO.
Isn't Cramer suppose to be doing this interview in an orange jumpsuit?
Under section 8.01, an 8K filing is discretionary, and unlike other 8K filings, there is no requirement it must be filed within any time restriction-- if at all.
Translation: Linda Powers timed her release well. AF created a straw man regarding reimbursement and exemption publication timing; and by the way, it was published in Germany on the very day NWBO received it from the Institute.
Largest Volume Day Ever.
Possible announcements coming up.
1. Direct clinics opening in Europe.
2. ASCO Abstract -- acceptance or rejection is positive.
3. Price-point in Germany finalized.
4. DMC decision.
5. ASCO: Large 'stage' to announce "encouraging" Direct Data.
****The list goes on.
Very good points. I think the DMC decision will come before Great Britain changes their access. IMHO, the German decision was necessary to establish a price point through equally leveraged negotiations.
Surprise, Surprise, Surprise! The Yahoo chart works.
--After several months of only presenting the 1 and 5 day charts, the Yahoo interactive chart now goes all the way back to 2002.--
Gosh, wonder why?
It looks like we will break the record for volume today.
That is even more significant because shares cost much more today.
The old record was 6,583,000 shares traded when the stock was around 5.00 per share. There was about $33,000,000.00 traded that day.
Let's say we trade above 7 million shares today. That will constitute nearly 70 million dollars traded -- ballpark.
That seems plausible. I must say I have come to appreciate Larry Smith's conservative estimates because he does not raise expectations too high. That way if a company meets or exceeds estimates, the investment community responds positively. Larry leaves the bolder predictions to those of us with less responsibility and influence.
Welcome afford.
I agree that Linda really is a great strategist. While there certainly will be peripheral and head-on attacks in the future, NWBO has a number of catalysts in the near term that should enable it to power through any temporary distractions.
Red said:
Ego. That's why I vote against stickies. There is the giver of ego, the receiver and finally the rest of us. It's never accurate but ultimately changes group dynamics. Right now, save a couple part-timers, this board feels real.
If the abstract is not accepted, we may get the info sooner; if it is accepted, we may get word from a higher rooftop! It's a win win.
….and AF is spending more time with his family….which is a plus.
Congrats Pyrrhonian.
No stickies please.
I hope John stays. He is the most resourceful, level headed and compassionate among us.
Anyway, I'm glad he has help! Sometimes this board is like herding cats, but John always manages to pull us back toward common courtesy.
Does this mean you two are expecting more message board traffic;)
One tradition I hope remains, and that is the warm welcome new posters usually receive, even if we suspect some of them might have ulterior motives, it's best to initially give the benefit of the doubt.
….and therefore it follows…. :)
Next PR? Direct clinics to open in Europe?
Maybe.
It's just my guess, but I bet the reimbursement price will be etched in stone shortly before the DMC decision comes out. Now I'm reading the tea leaves.
In the immortal words of Steve Martin, "Man, those Germans (actually he said French) have a different word for everything!"
Thanks for adding your IQ to this board.
Cabbage Rolls and Coffee!
Fox, thanks for all your posting contributions as well.
I believe patients' pocketbooks will benefit from the early reimbursement negotiation.
Again, it seems like there is a guiding hand in all this. Had DCVAX-L passed phase III before the Germans were able to negotiate a reasonable price-point for their citizens -- and thus set the standard for Europe (ultimately leading to DCVAX-L's price-points around the globe), then shareholders (forgive us for we are pushy) would have tried to demand that Powers demand more for NWBO's miraculous treatment. Luckily for patients, the price-point is now being negotiated with just the right amount of leverage on both sides. In the end, this will benefit patients, governments, and yes, even NWBO, because a more reasonable starting price-point will make NWBO's drug more available to people around the world at a faster clip (we don't want a Provenge expense problem), which will mean saturation, this will in turn create stability, and this will provide consistent revenue.
Diamond, thanks for the Larry Smith update.
I liked this passage:
Long.
Carroll is a friend of the shorts who are being squeezed right now. Notice he does not mention the compassionate use programs in Israel and great Britain. Notice he does not mention the Cologne medical center progress. Over 200 patients getting over 1000 treatments with over an 80% clinical response rate, and he'd say something as pathetic as this?
Yes…Where is Austin?
Note: I added a bit more on the intraday dip today.
Red.
I think you are right. The barrier to entry in Europe is much higher for those trying to follow in the footsteps of NWBO.
On a pricing note, I think the following passage from NWBO's PR is important.