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They had best cover before data... imo... good to excellent data will bring huge, huge volume... actually bad data will also bring huge, huge volume... difficult to manipulate that no matter how organized you are and virtually impossible to spin... once the pps settles at a higher level... post data... shorts will open new positions and it starts all over again... any shorts holding at data will lose if data is good... just as longs will lose if data is bad...
Best holiday wishes to all... as a kid I can remember the feeling of waiting for Christmas to come... it just seemed to take forever to get here... I am remembering that feeling as we await data in January... soon, so tantilizingly soon, but not here yet... January cometh... the final watch has begun
I am a professional in the mental health field... a therapist... CTIX has two lead compounds in clinical trials as we know... but the bench is also pretty darn good... the autism indication is one that directly impacts my field... we have various interventions to offer clients and their families, but truth be told only with limited effectiveness... if CTIX really has an indication that is able to treat autism at the biological/physiological level... wow! ...just wow! we haven't even tried to value that one at, of course, it is still pre-clinical... but I promise you demand would be incredible... and that is a very active advocacy group so insurers would be pressured to cover it such that the margins would likely be sweet... and the blessing to the inflicted... priceless... just saying... imo...
Drano is absolutely correct... this manipulation will continue, I can promise you that... and there is nothing the company or any of us as investors can do to change that... it is simply a fact of investing life... we are like the little fish that swims in the mouth of the sharks and cleans its teeth... the shark lets us survive because we are useful...
Pardon my analogy... yet while this is a fact of life it is also something that we retail investors can in fact benefit from... ignore the red in your portfolio... it meant nothing... by the way the recent green in your portfolio related to CTIX didn't mean much either if you want to know the truth of it... the next movement that will truly mean something is the one we get once P53 activation is confirmed... imo...
So if you can't beat them at their game... join 'em... the strategy is simple... buy on dips... accumulate a position you are comfortable with and want to hold long term... then continue to buy on dips as able and sell some of those shares as pps rise... gradually you are able to pay down your investment basis... until it is paid off entirely... like paying off your mortgage... now you have shares that are in essence paid for... at that point you can either hold 'em and watch them grow, sell 'em for cash or sell 'em and re-invest... whatever you need as life's circumstances indicate...
The thing that really matter for us as retail investors, the things the MMs, hedgies, shorts and bashers can't touch is the science... if the science is real everything else takes care of itself... I have reviewed many developmental phase biotechs over time, invested in some, experienced significant success... and I gotta say... CTIX is special... awesome product line... excellent management... clear mechanism of action for lead product... keeping impressive company in the medical field... huge market... first mover status... and so on... any share purchased under $2 at this point is practically stealing if you ask me... which made what I did yesterday akin to grand larceny...
your numbers are getting me all twitterpated...
I am thinking this probably isn't the best sector for you to be in... you are entitled to your opinion... informed or not... there was no crash today... this was a correction which will lead to some much needed consolidation... it also provided a very nice buying opportunity for some of us who showed up a little late for the party... i did some serious catching up today... this is just the beginning... of the ups and the downs with this stock... overall long term trend is decidedly up... product pipeline is absolutely ridiculous if you ask me... for a company this size to have so many treatment indications... the battle was joined today by the shorts, bashers, pumpers, traders, MMs... they will not go away... they will ride this thing up and down... and that won't change with an uplist.. this is going to be fun... but it is only for the stout of heart... there is a pot 'o gold at the end of the ride... for those with the courage to go long... imo...
I agree... CTIX management has two responsibilities to shareholders... continue developing ground breaking treatment indications and keep us reasonably informed regarding the process... the games of the market will happen... hunker down folks... you ain't seen nothin' yet... but this is a very special investment opportunity... if it works... this one has the potential to change a retail investors demographic positioning... if you know what i mean...
2.5 million shares going into closing bell... the volume continues to rock... building a solid foundation in these price ranges and soon enough it will be over two once again... this is very impressive volume... and a great buying opportunity today... bought some low this morning, then lower still this afternoon...
Yep, but it is also not going anywhere, so you might as well learn to take advantage of it... manipulation is part and parcel of the modern stock market... developmental phase biotechs are among the easiest targets...
Yep... they do that all the time... their algorithimic blood hounds sniffing out stops with steep pps dives... I have learned the hard way not to use the stop loss function...
CITX has begun to get the attention of the market... that brings both good and bad... the games have just begun... there will be many more... for longs the games are irrelevant except for the opportunities they afford... I just spent the morning buying on this wonderful dip... this is going to be a wild ride with many ups and downs... the only thing that will truly matter in the end... efficacy regarding Kevetrin and Purisol work... if they do, this will look ridiculously cheap down the road... shorts, MM's, traders, bashers... can't touch that...
I took a shot... Hey, value it anyway you want... it's ok with me...
I agree too that this would be a monumental moment... the dilemma for small, individual investors like ourselves... and we are all small here compared to the big institutional boys and girls... is that to make money we need to be in before the monumental moment... if we wait until the monumental moment it will cost us too much... no risk... no reward... jmo...
Cure for cancer sounds mighty fine to me, and I appreciate your take as a scientist... it is an extravagant claim they have made isn't it... a paradigm shift to be sure... of course, we both know there is a long way to go... still I hope for a cure... and I tell you as great as that would be for me as an investor... it would be soooo much more important for the good of those who suffer from this terrible disease...
You are welcome... and just a bit of unsolicited advice... you wandered onto a stock message board that has some very good, well-informed folks who are strong advocates of this stock... it is easy to come across as combative, perhaps without meaning to do so... don't be too shocked if they come after you... they are not idiots and neither are you...
As for your point about this being possibly "the stock of the century"... if it activates 53 it could very well be... as an investor I have bought chunks in the high sub-dollar range and in the 1.80s... I plan to continue adding along the way... I am willing to risk 80 cents or just under two bucks for the possible "stock of the century"... of course, I do not risk what I cannot afford to lose... jmo...
What you mean the didn't fake the whole moon thingy!!! It is very distrubing to learn this at my advanced age...
I am willing to concede your point that a peer reviewed publication would strengthen the case for CTIX... I am not bothered by the lack of one at this time... I am an investor, not a scientist... I am cautious... I look for bargains to control risk, know how to hedge my position as necessary and so on... could this be a scam... sure I suppose... but you are being a little to optimistic about the value of a peer reviewed article and a little too simplistic about the processes a biotech company goes through in developing a new indication...
You state that anyone can start a clinical trial as long as they have money... perhaps... but this is an fda approved trial... pre-clinical data was presented to support it... just because you can't look at it does not mean it doesn't exist... I am an investor, you are a scientist... why am I having to tell you this?
And sure they can put anything they want on their websites... have their been grand scams in the history of investing... yes... but not as many as one might think and there is a very good reason for this... people don't generally like to face felony charges by commiting fraud... I doubt very much that the management of CTIX is any different in this case...
Finally, look at the institutions where the trials are being conducted... again you have not been privy to the pre-clinical work, but do these institutions strike you as the type to just accept whatever anyone tells them on its face... they have seen the pre-clinicals... so your idea that it doesn't exist and has been woven out of whole cloth... just doesn't pass the smell test for me... the FDA and Dana Farber and Beth Israel are not run by morons...
CTIX well get to the peer review process in due time... I would suggest that they are exactly the opposite of what you suggest... you suggest they are scammers yelling Jesus in a crowded theatre... I suggest they are cautious scientists who know full well that pre-clinical work is just a cautious beginning... the peer review work will likely begin with the completion of phase I trials as it should imo...
Bankshot... I'd advise you to pay attention to MM's post - that is how you begin a valuation of a developmental phase biotech... then you look at the potential size of the market for the indication, possible competition, likely market share if company is successful and so on, and so on... at the end of all that you get to the numbers you are so fond of... yes, I know that those numbers are where you begin with other more traditional stocks... this is different...
Sorry bankshot... you are valuing SBFM like it was GM or Pfizer... this is a developmental phase biotech... your numbers mean something, but not everything you think they do... you appear to have no idea how to value this type of stock... I'b be delighted to scrape together a quarter mil and buy the whole thing lock stock and barrell... supposed they would sell it to me for that...
ndg... thank you for your posts responding to this absurd red herring... even on YMB where the most outrageous pumpers sometimes reside... there is absolutely no claim that I can recall of a six-month survival rate for the control arm... there are not even any claims for a six-month median pfs... the lowest pfs I remember being discussed is 11 months... while generally the low end is considered to be 12 months... most of us longs are prepared for a pfs of 14-16 months in the control arm and some statistical models support that even if the control arm outperforms historical trends by 50% (18 months) that T-dox will likely still meet primary endpoint... six-month median survival in the control arm is utterly absurd such that even the most wildly optimistic pumpers wouldn't touch it...
Just noticed this tagline description for AF's blog - "Adam Feuerstein investigates the highly-speculative world of biotech stocks, and helps biotech investors avoid losing money."
...perhaps it should also read that sometimes he helps biotech investors avoid making money too...
Excellent post... may I make just one small addition...
"Maybe I better check with a dopey [color=red][anonymous and short][/color] random fund manager to see if he agrees."
You made a good investment today and used this situation to your advantage... buying extra on the dip... well done... though nearly everyone says that they want to buy on the dips many freeze psychologically/emotionally when they see "red" and are not able to pull the trigger... successfull investors take the emotion out and do what you did... buy into a falling price as long as the reason for the fall is not material...
AF frequently creates fine buying opportunities for savy longs...
Your 8 and change shares will look quite inexpensive by the end of January... imo...
What is amazing to me is how many so-called "investors" fall for this stuff... it is painfully obvious that many invest without doing adequate dd and are dangerously uniformed... then they lose their shirts in the market and complain about how corrupt the market is... don't get me wrong, the market is corrupt... which is all the more reason one needs to do thorough due diligence... buyer beward...
I'll bet AF makes a nice living doing this... and the uniformed investor pays his salary...
check out the celsion blog... just type "celsion blog" into a search engine... the issue of distant mets has been thoroughly discussed there with some excellent articles... AF did not make up the idea of distant mets as an issue for the trial... he does what he always does in these hack articles... he skews the article in such a way as to scare the uninformed with half-truths... i guarantee that many of the longs on this board have carefully weighed the issue of distant mets... and remain long... this is a very old and lazy argument...
i also promise you that no one has given more consideration to the issue of distant mets than CLSN management... and their decision to neither raise funds nor partner until after data... along with their personal decisions to continue buying stock... should shout out clearly to anyone who thinks about it for a minute...
the reality is that most so-called "distant" mets occurs in close proximity to the original tumor that is being ablated and so isn't really all that distant... and thus is within the treatment zone of t-dox which essentially extends the ablation zone...
is it possible distant mets could sink the trial... sure... is it likely... not in my opinion... and apparently not in the opinion of CLSN management either... it is also quite possible that t-dox's impact on distant mets may contribute to stellar pfs results... we won't know with certainty until we know with certainty... when data is released.. check out the celsion blog... for your own dd...
last chance to buy before $9... when this turns up again it is going to blow past 9... imo...
For some reason this song is filling my brain...
"AahEverybody, get on the floor, let's dance!
Don't fight the feelin', give yourself a chance!
Shake shake shake, shake shake shake,
Shake your booty! Shake your booty!
Oh, shake shake shake, shake shake shake,
Shake your booty! Shake your booty."
There gonna be a whole lot o' shakin' going on in the CLSN market place today...
It will be very interesting to see where the day ends...
lol... i wondered about that too... maybe he is writing from a time zone far, far away...
i will be very surprised if this pulls back to $5.79 at this point... let's see if they can get it under $8 first... i certainly don't see it falling below $7... this bear argument is extremely weak... so weak in fact it encourages me... i mean really, if this is their best shot, this late in the game... then i think we are in very good shape... pop some popcorn... throw on a little extra butter... grab a glass or pint of your favorite beverage... and enjoy some "street theatre" holiday style... that is ALL this is... jmo
Nice. I really like imagining that... I think I am going to imagine that all weekend... so if you see me with a big smile on my face... this is what I will be thinking... pps up 51 cents on a little over 1 million shares... up 1.15 on 4.4 million shares traded... what happens when volume hits 20 million shares
"KKKKKKKAAAAAAAAABBBBBBBOOOOOOOMMMMMMM... bid chasing ask like a pacman game... big meaty chunks..." as Bio likes to say...
Rawnoc, thanks for that enjoyable image... you just made my weekend...
Appear to have run out of shares for sale in the 7.05 to 7.15 area as well... hmmm... wondering if this could be a fun close... if we get any volume it might be...
Just management's way of wishing us all a Merry Christmas on our way to a very Happy New Year!
LOL... looks like the market has decided we are going up again... must have run out of cheap shares to sell and taken out all of the available stops...
6 and 7 cent spreads recent on bid ask... the market is making up its mind right now which way we go from here...
yep... natural pullback within the frame work of a long and ongoing upward trend... higher highs and higher lows... nothing to fear here... imo... january cometh... the final watch has begun...
Cabel,
I am going to assume you are new to biotech investing and be kind here...
The plain answer to your question is NO we do not know whether or not the 33% target for efficacy has been met... which is why topline data is so important... that is when we all find out... at that moment this stock will either fall to around $1 per share if the 33% goal is not met or rise upwards to $20 and beyond if the goal is met... so on that day, any of us holding a substantial position in CLSN will either lose or make alot of money... and most of our gains or loses will be locked in almost immediately with very little time to undwind our positions...
I have looked at both the bear and bull cases... and found the bull case to be much stronger... I will be holding through data and am prepared to take the loss if that is what occurs... but more likely I will be celebrating...
This is a genuine investment opportunity with a favorable risk/reward equation for me... keep researching... you will need to decide for yourself... what risk you are willing to tolerate... and what reward you seek... good luck...
Now that sounds like fun!!!!
looking at the chart... phenomenal... higher highs, higher lows... upward trend very strong and still very much in tact... topline data in january... nothing truly matters except or until that event occurs... everything else is noise... sometime in january we go to $1 or we go to $25 and beyond... in the blink of an eyelash... the bear argument continues to grow weaker... the bull case strengthens... i say 2:1 we go to 25, rather than 1... welcome to the world of developmental phase biotech investing... sleep well, be at peace, enjoy your holidays
LOL... about time you climbed off of it... you almost suffocated the darn thing and single handidly stalled the rally... glad you got your fill in time to allow a closing rally...
Or put another way there are many forms of compensation... and for a prestigious medical insitution being connected with and given credit for helping to develop a treatment that will revolutionize the practice of medicine is serious compensation... it translates into many good things for that institution some of which eventually become funding...
We are known by the company we keep and CTIX is keeping some mighty fine company through its developmental trials...