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This is BIG news. Much research has been focused on disruption of biofilm growth. This new finding also will have anti-cariogenic benefits as well (by virtue of this activity).
EPA will become a main ingredient in toothpaste and will become a very effective Rx based oral dentrifrice. Thanks Zum.
Debt to equity swap, bullish or bearish? Read this:
Mankind announced a similar plan on 7/29/2015. The stock spiraled. Usually this is done when a company is in trouble and can't meet their financial obligations.
However, I came across this interesting article that explains how the strategy can be bullish:
Debt to Equity Swaps
Usually, a debt to equity swap between a lender and borrower on arms’ length terms would derive from the mutual interest of the borrower and the lender to safeguard the borrower against the threat of insolvency, which in all likelihood would mean that the borrower would not recover the full amount of the debt due to it in any event. Usually, the proposal for a swap arises when a borrower is struggling, often due to cash flow problems, to finance interest payments on borrowings but the value of its underlying assets is sufficiently robust and attractive to the lender to take an equity stake in the borrower in exchange for a commensurate reduction in the total outstanding debt. However, in the current economic climate, debt to equity swaps are more commonly being considered by companies who are not necessarily on the brink of insolvency but who are taking this approach (subject to lender consent) as part of a package of pre-emptive measures to shore up their finances.
Raf, you totally ignored the first two sentences of Isaeed's post. Why do you take management's comments so literally? Did you do the same with JZ's comments? Never mind, I know the answer to that.
Don't kid yourself, AMRN's attorneys are controlling every word written or spoken, the main emphasis of which has been to under promise in terms of results and time frames.
As for the extra events, I personally don't know how the process works and neither do you, but in my opinion, it will not reflect well on the perception of trial results (if halted) if it is discovered that they intended to intentionally "stretch" the interim out as long as possible to reach their target. As I understand it, once 60% is reached, those cases are analysed for the interim look. If there are other events during the time period of the analysis and if the trial is halted, then those additional events will be included in the final analysis of the trial. But they won't impact the IA recommendation.
I'm sure that if the attorneys are guarding every word, then they are certainly advising them to precisely follow procedure - absent of telling the DMC what to do.
All that being said, I agree with Isaeed's post, we will have news sometime in the next 3 weeks and the drug will have to show efficacy on 60% of the total events in order to be halted.
9/6/16, a date that will go down in infamy for AMRN?
If the data has been analyzed by the last week of August (possible) and it has been found to show overwhelming efficacy (as many have predicted on this board), then Sept. 6 could become a very important day. 3 reasons:
1. WS Traders return to their desks post Labor Day, ready for action. Very strong volume will be back in the markets.
2. The broader markets have consolidated above 16-day support for 12 sessions and it appears like the consolidation will continue through the end of the month. The consolidation pattern looks ripe for an upside breakout.
3. Management has wiggle room as to when they strategically decide to announce the DMC halt recommendation. Sept. 6, enables them to announce on a day that will give them the biggest bang for the buck based on the above, as well as the likelihood that September is a vesting month for management equity.
If this is to occur, the telltale sign will be how the stock behaves next week - particularly Friday 9/2. By then, insiders will know and some will act. We should see a very healthy, high volume rally (in call options and shares) on “no news” which will portend the big news release on the subsequent first ‘post-summer’ trading day.
This may or may not occur, but if the signs develop and you have dry powder, it could be the opportunity of a lifetime.
BTW, here is a link to a paper describing CEO's discretion in terms of timing press releases: When It Comes to CEOs, Equity and Press Releases, Timing Is Everything
Michael, "what do you think about the $3.25-$3.26 wall we can't seem to break and stay above"
In my opinion, the HF’s that got stung by the 19th expiration resorted to an earnest short raid to minimize losses on settlement delivery (today). Normally, back to back bearish wicks that hint of tracing a lower high, would lead to a sharper sell off. However, despite their efforts, they have not been able to break the trend, as demand has emerged to absorb the selling. We’ll see what happens tomorrow now that options settlement is over.
North, congratulations! Dual winners for sure.
Michael, hard to say. My guess is it is a hedge against a very large long position in the stock, placed by a big investor/HF as a IA trade.
A better strategy would be to corner the supply and lower costs, while driving up inventory costs for future competitors as a result of product scarcity.
Greymatter1, your 68 posts are all negative and they show up during up trends,.. hmmm?
the lack of real movement in the stock price isn't there. Why?
Chas, here is your treasure map:
I'm also curious what might happen immediately after announcement
I-freak, "It's called taking profits. Pretty normal and healthy actually."
Today was not "healthy"
A nice breakout that fills the gap then retreats to give nearly all of it back is not bullish.
Michael, I agree with you. I think we are beginning to see big funds/investors acquire positions. The high volume consolidation above the $3.00 level of support definitely represents a support base moving forward.
The bears (Pyrrhonian & Co.) only see an overbought top, supposed breakaway gap + announcement of dilution, and are in hope of further downside follow through. It’s not working out their way though. Instead, huge demand emerged at the 50% retrace to support the share price and now we seem poised to follow through to the upside. They have to be nervous based on the fact that this will be their 3rd losing short trade since we climaxed.
(Note the numerous green/blue momentum bars since breaking resistance)
I think AMRN takes out the recent high next week and then accelerate up. Management appears to be executing a carefully crafted business plan and I think we see more items on the agenda unfolding this coming week.
P's posts are illuminating.
3 on Thursday, 11 on Friday, 25 this weekend. Suffice it to say, he has bet BIG on an AMRN short position (probably executed on Friday). After Friday’s big AH trade, he’s nervous and obsessed with convincing any and all about his “short thesis.” Clearly he is too emotionally attached to his thesis:
Rice causes bleeding too!
They did a study and dumped 2000 pounds of hot steaming rice on some rats and they bled to death.
Benny, quote: "I am curious about the August 19th $3 calls. OI still well over 10K. Seems the big call buyers have yet to cover their positions even though they have already made a nice profit."
I think there is a surprise in store for us this Friday or early next week. My opinion is based on your observation (no change in $3 call OI), the 6100 calls purchased 2 days after Kalb's hire, and the price action up to and through earnings. Some event/news is being priced in with urgency (besides that of the expected R-IT announcement in 1-2 months).
If so, I'm sure management has strategically timed the announcement to not interfere with earnings, as well as to keep the bullish momentum supporting the earnings induced price rally.
Not a time to be short:
VIX: near all-time low
SPX: all-time high
IBB: TL/200MA breakout
AMRN: High volume BO, supported by H.C. Wainwright & Co. and other funds.
Think what happens once the trading desks fill up after traders return from the Hamptons. This is what will greet them:
It will be fun to watch shorts like you suffer grinding pain as AMRN steadily climbs up the 8-dEMA into interim.
ME33, "One more thing the difference between me and you is that I will hold my core AMRN position no matter what but you'll be long gone if stock corrects more than you can stomach."
How do you know that? Your statement is silly if you think you will hold "no matter what." But you seem to be a tough - no matter what - kinda guy so go for it!! I will be happy to nimbly dance in and out if clouds/rough seas develop. For now gonna happily hold and enjoy the momentum.
One more thing, since you are bragging about making so much money on AMRN, why don't you share evidence of your actual trades (or entries since you never sell).
Please enlighten the board because I don't think you're telling the truth. C'mon now,.. show me the $
Me33 quote: "The facts that you continue to ignore facts and keep pushing your volcano scenario is simply rediculous and tells a lot about the type of person you are."
Now that’s a stretch. The only “fact” that matters is price. All other variables (especially RSI and the “gut” indicator) don’t mean crap during a blue sky breakout. Your compounding short loss is beginning to teach you that the hard way (yes, even when volume is declining)
By the way, since I started posting here, AMRN has surged from 1.40 to 3.33, a whopping +73%. If that’s what a ridiculous volcano scenario gives I’ll take it. As for the type of person it makes me?.. how bout rich! That's a "fact" I'm comfortable with.
Fourth, no one trusts their 'gut' like you do.
I remember the early days. The chart screamed bears were in control. Not now! The dynamics have changed. In spite your incessant lust to look back and extrapolate what happened then to now, it won't rescue your short loss. You continue to ignore the TA price squeeze breakout, upturn of the 20-, 50-, an 200-dMAs, higher-highs/higher lows an earnings beat, an explosion of volume (funds accumulating) and a looming binary event. Sorry, your 3 point argument has too many holes in it.
Me33, declining volume isn’t necessarily bearish but you’ll need more than a ‘gut’ to figure out why and when that is (hint: it has something to do with inertia)
Look at the following stocks with squeeze patterns:
Exas
Aria
Cytk
Volume in each is declining but prices continue to climb. Why is that? Oh, and by the way, RSI is OVERBOUGHT!
Agree, last years run had major overhead resistance. We've cleared than now,.. nothing above until 4.50.
(Slowmover mentioned the 200MA but he was showing a weekly chart. 200 week MAs are rarely used to identify support/resistance)
Me33 quote:
I don't need charts because I've in this stock for 6 years. I remember everything
Raf,
Just my gut feeling
I also think RI will be stopped after 2nd interim analysis next summer.
Me33 -Yes it did. It rallied from 2/9/15 to 3/16/2015 = 5 weeks ($1.04 to a high of $3.33). Not sure what chart you are looking at but you need to get your facts straight. Multi-year resistance has been taken out on the heels of an impressive 40% 3 day rally and now there is little resistance above which will suck the pps up fiercely like a vacuum. Because of that, it is insane to think we can't hold this level. Just because we are due for a correction doesn't mean one will occur anytime soon. Stepping in front of this move is the inverse equivalent to catching a falling knife. Welcome to the perfect storm.
Are sorry you sold your position? Bet you're even more sorry you shorted this beast.
Me33 quote, "The last time RSI was that high the stock pulled from $3.30 to $2 and finally bottomed at $1.27."
Yes, but did you also notice that it rallied for 5 weeks first, while being extremely overbought( based on the RSI)?
Now, it is on a full sprint to close the the October 2013 gap. Shorts are being squeezed, Institutions are gobbling up scarce supply, and we are enjoying the after glow of a catalyst laced earnings announcement. Oh,... and lest I forget, we are 3-6 weeks away from the interim announcement.
All combined, I'm not worried about an RSI at 90. As Marzan said, it is representative of strength and can stay that way for many weeks - certainly enough to take us up to the big news as Couldbe posted. I too think we see the pattern price objective of 4.50 met before any reasonable slump. The type of price action we are seeing forces climax buying as those waiting, waiting, waiting for a pullback never get it, eventually causing them to capitulate and buy/chase it.
Here is how I percieve the RSI similarities/differences (yellow and green highlights):
I agree. More pain ahead for the shorts:
Very few Aug. 19th option call holders (who are in the money) are choosing to sell on the heels of Earnings, including the mystery 6100 Aug 19 $3 Call purchaser (now worth $286,000!). Settlement delivery will further squeeze shorts and drive up the PPS. I think we are about to see demand explode.
Big gap Monday morning?
Thanks JL, Zum, Sam for the information you shared today in the following posts (worth reviewing a second time):
87634(Purpose of the 2nd Interim / EPA and it's mode of inflammatory regulation at the cellular level)
87370 (Periodontal disease is very widespread in the baby boomer population. The dental applications could be huge IMO)
87367 (H.c. Wainwright & Co. gets it. This is a very good stock analysis/projeciton)
Very much appreciated.
I agree. Great ER + crossing the 3.00 threshold puts the stock on many more Institutional fund watchlists.
I think the high for the day is in and we close near it.
We are extremely overbought. Wouldn't be surprised to see the market sell the news tomorrow at first (depending on what it is). Any minor retrace will get bought hard.
P, quote:"I saw something."
Umm, those were headlights...
Suggest everyone place a GTC order to sell at $100 or higher. Shares of standing orders are unavailable for shorting.
Thank you. We needed a refill on rocket fuel.