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Lebby talks about speed, scaleability and cost and LWLG fiber optics outperforming current semi conductor solutions. He does not talk about low voltage . He knows of course that this is a very important customer requirement. Delivering this will add to LWLG's uniqueness for the datacenters and "kill" competitors. Giving away low voltage at this stage is not required. Speed, scaleability and cost may be enough imo at this stage to attract new investors and silence any criticasters from the industry.
Great, first LWLG substantive interview with Wallstreet investment community. This is what we need to create awareness and understanding among new investors. Just listen to the.confidence of Lebby if he talks about the role of LWLG as hardware manufacturer for the datacom industry in the next two decades. This sounds like LWLG is the new Intel in photonics devices in speed and cost.
Bertjan, let me give you my five cents. First volume is low. That means 80 million shares hardly change owner. Good news people do not want to sell. Bad news few new buys. Little volume drives price. LPC may OWN 4,99% of LWLG and needs to deliver cash against shares at marketprices. Two consequences 1. surplus shares/ownership above 4,99% are sold in a low volume market ( drives price down) 2. LPC has an incentive to drive SP down to lower its average SP for their 4,99% ownership ( maximizes potential upside in case of succes). As is often said, the moment we find a partner or funding because of commercial activities this may change dramatically.
Bertjan, let’s say LWLG learned the hard way and Zelibor understood pretty fast upon arrival that he needed to take control on material and device development by moving it in house. As others said focus on the present and the future.. LWLG survived where others went belly up. Moreover LWLG made fantastic progress. I expect news on commercialization next. Met Lebby a few times, no doubt in my mind that he will deliver.
MaxzMillionz, it is a real pleasure to read your messages. Thanks for your input on this board.
Messi, just take this market, assume a marketshare of 25, 50% ( or more?) for LWLG ( unique material and devices) and take current Ebitda percentage of Intel ( conservative) and you end up with a potential conservative Revenue of 6-12 B and an very conservative ebitda for LWLG of 3B -6B in 2024.That would easily command a pricetag of 15 - 30 B. LWLG offers new photonics technology where existing technology cannot compete. If I see what prices are offered for existing technologies , I sincerely believe my ‘ back of the enveloppe” calculation is probably very modest. This does not even account for other market opportunities by the way.
Big companies have expressed and defined what they are requiring in productfunctionality for their data centres
Only LWLG with its patented technology and photonic devices seems to be able to offer these demanding customer requirements. That puts LWLG in an unique position to deliver exceptional value to its shareholders in future ( 2019). Only unique competitive advantages are able to deliver exceptional shareholdervalue and LWLG claims they are the only place where customers can find what they are looking for.
I would say that it is highly unlikely that this unique value will not be ‘exploited’ one way or another. So even the riskfactor for us investors is now very low and at these ridiculous prices a true bargain.
I fully agree. We have been hearing ‘ in the near future’ for many years in the past. What about ‘ before the 2nd quarter 2019” or “ soon, but no later than the 2nd quarter of 2019”. I hope our reactions will be noticed.
What a refreshing interview from Jamie Dimon on everyting from Trump’s wall, the shut down, China, Brexit and the excellent health of the US economy. His main worry: US public policy over the years.
I hope British members of parliament also listen what JPMorgan Chase is doing to continue its business on mainland Europe.
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2019/01/16/watch-jp-morgan-ceo-jamie-dimon-speak-on-the-shutdown-brexit-and-u-s-china-trade.html
Thanks for your insights. Pitcook remains ‘ambétant’.
Makes a lot of sense. Fits my opinion that it makes business and financial sense to intensify the relationship between Largo and Niocorp for all the reasons you stated. You bring up an interesting point, I did not consider. Resistance to such a cooperation from the current majority shareholder in Largo. The fact that Arias is selling its majority stake in Largo is telling.
We can only speculate on the status of financing. Except for Mark Smith, nobody here is able to give an definitive answer on where we stand. We can use our thinking to finetune our speculation based on accumulating insights and knowledge, but it remains speculation.
Obviously Mark Smith is not able to give us the answer, or at least not yet.
That could mean two things: Mark has no answer or the anwer is still being formulated. If he would have an answer, we would have known. So I am assuming option two: financing is still in the works. Do I trust we will get the best possible financing, yes I do, based on all the progression signs we have witnessed over the years and my belief in management.
My hunch is, that this so- called ‘ competitive tension’ Mark eluded to, will probably see that some parties may fall off and walk away and others may see this as a strengthening of their negotiating position and up their demands. It is a fluid, reitirative process, it takes (a lot) of time.
Further speculation on my behalf: the 750 Million Largo deal may have nothing to do with Niocorp but it could give a powerful signal to negotiating parties, that there is always an alternative. Mark actions are always trying to exercise maximum impact. Timing is everything for Master Mark.
Contrary to WalterC, It seems to me that it would make business and financial sense for Largo and Nio to intensify their relationships. WalterC does not belief that, but does not give any reasons why not. Maybe there are other reasons, cultural for example, that would exclude such a cooperation although that seems highly unlikely given that Mark runs this company as CEO for more than three years and the Largo organisation seems to respond quite well to what docter Marks prescribes. Together with the Largo shareholders we will have to watch how this plays out. Anyway, like all here, I hope to see a non dilutive financing deal for Niocorp soon.
Go Mark.
I am sure we will see more media attention for LWLG in the naar future. LWLG’s breakthrough technology and potential value proposition will not go unnoticed.
Proto, good to see official confirmation from the company on its progress and.... confirmation of your reliability as a source of information.
Thanks Messi, that’s exactly how I understood it as well from Lebby himself.
Gatesoft, it takes two to tango. From the company statements it would appear the company is already engaged for some time with prospective customers. Lebby told us that he would be very selective in choosing customers based on his own extensive customer experience and contacts. He told ius that he did not want this process to take months. Your guess is as good as mine, but I expect feedback any day. The design in process may take off from there.
Thanks Double D for company statements. You are correct it seems Tedro is trying to sow doubt by fake arguments.
You are right Messi, Thanks for correction.
Messi, I think your plan will be obsoleted by a watershed event. The end of silicon photonics seems to approach pretty fast with the incomprehensable defensive move of Cisco acquiring Luxtera to accomodate Microsoft and Intel selling its silicon chips well below costprice, whist ARM eats Intels lunch in mobile chips and willing to license its technology to the likes of Apple, Amazon, Facebook. Business and silicon technology are hitting a stone wall. Its keeping your head banging to the wall or going around it. I think LWLG will be bought.Its telling that the next ECOC meeting in March in Brussels will deal with the question of polymers as solution for the current technology limitations. Two years ago Lebby succeeded in getting polymers on the agenda the first time, now it seems polymers are moving centre stage at ECOC, the world most prestigious technology event in photonics.
Just an observation on Intel and ARM. Intel does not licence out its chiptechnology, I understand, whereas ARM does and makes marketshare gains especially in ‘mobile’ chips. Apple, Amazon, Facebook, Microsoft , the big boys, increasingly prefer to make their chips themselves and become licencees.
Question to be answered who will become their licensor for ‘stationairy’ chiptechnology?
I fully second your statement Gatesoft. Keep going Proto.
The holders of the 9.1 million warrants at 0,75 will have to decide to exercise or not before 19 January. I am sure that some who sold their shares and kept their warrants have a problem. They could buy shares at market prices, driving the SP up, or hope for financing news before 19 January. Anyway I assume that none of them wants to “ miss the boat” now. We may see a an increasing SP for that reason. We will see.
Proto, thanks for your relentless efforts to keep us informed! Wish everybody a happy and prosperous 2019. I am sure - after almost 10 years invested- we are approaching show down time for LWLG.
Messi, let me add that Cisco's deal with Luxtera 'traditional' silicon might be a reaction or a first move action into the PIC field. One thing I can tell you from my own corporate experience: nothing creates more sense of urgency than a competitor move. I see Cisco-Luxtera deal as the proverbial fire under the haystack. This will accelerate things. Wonder if LWLG was not available anymore to Cisco.? Can't imagine Cisco did not have LWLG on their radarscreen. Maybe they are indeed seriously talking to one of the companies you listed.
Walter, same for me. LWLG is making concrete progress as promised. That's good enough for me for the time being. Tremendous news.
Real news from a trusted source: the company. LWLG is delivering as promised. Very exciting times ahead.
Well, if Intel is selling its silicon devices according to this recent article below costprice not to lose important customers, I assume they will not continue to do this ad infinitum. They will do this to bridge time to a profitable solution. Since we know from Lebby c.s. that silicon has inherent limitations beyond 50 Gig, I wonder if LWLG might just be able to offer that profitable solution in time. Yes, I hope we will have an update soon.
Scope, I am with you. What happens in the market these days has nothing to do with the progress the company is making. We should rely on company information only. That information tells me we are close to a breakthrough in technology and customer acceptance. I mean customer acceptance from the big global league. I remain confident that we are close to lift off, despite the fact that my holdings are 50% down. Keep the faith.
It is difficult not to get emotional. Been through this for a couple of times since 2009. SP is not helping, but I firmly belief that it is important to keep ”an eye on the ball”. The company has recently stated they are on track and will report back to us in January 2019. I still hope for a progress update in december. Despite yesterday , 99,8% of shareholders are holding
Johanna, I expect that as well. It sure sounded that way, listening to Mark and Scott. Wonder who will participate in this debt syndicate, whether there will be any well known names. Any way, if they invest up to hundred of millions of their cash into Niocorp debt financing, the current shareholders should be very happy. Even in case the SP will not react as some of us would hope, I am sure Mark will find ways to reward the shareholders in the years to come. This ‘ green mine’ fits perfectly into the current public administration - and industrial durability requirements and has potential way beyond the 32 years in the FS. From what ever angle you look at this mine processing facility, its potential is huge. Especially for its shareholders.
Sold out webcast session yesterday. Most read on ihub. 507 views of Niocorp replay as of now. Tremendous interest. Great investment at this stage. Finance more a matter of days and weeks, rather than months imo! Cannot see any showstoppers.
Thanks a lot for keeping us informed.
Same here despite registering
Thanks Proto. That settles any speculation. Great confirmation that LWLG is seen as a credible alternative by customers. Let's see what comes out of this.
Yes Proto, you are right. I looked at the 2Quarter 10Q it seems. IDCCfan I am sorry for any confusion
I caused. Nevertheless I understand prototypes are still on track for this year. Sorry for my stupidity.
IDCC fan, need to do reread. I read ‘ commercialisation in 2018” in 10Q somewhere. Page 14, the
packaged modulators will be available for evaluation in 2018 by potential customers”. Looking for commercialisation sententie.
Agree MessiBelgium. Moreover the latest 10Q mentions commercialisation of modulators in 2018. That's even a stronger statement than sending prototypes out. Look at the financial section of the 10Q. I am convinced we will soon know.
Thanks Richard for your thumbs up. I agree.
Trofee, listening to Heinz I believe he wanted to warn not to extrapolate 2018 results in current 2019 quarters, because of seasonality impacts. I do believe we will see further margin and revenue growth, and if the 4 quarter of 2018 ( ending 30 june 2018) is any indication it will beat anything seen sofar! I believe we will see a steady SP improvement.
I guess, we donot want all earnings to be cashed out to lenders. Investing in exploration is fine with me, especially if it increases shareholder value.