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That is exactly what people tell you who try to put you in nice safe mutual funds... and in truth if you don't want to do the work then that is where you should be... but your return will be limited...
If you have an effectve risk mitigation strategy, then the risk you speak of is way overblown... their are many strategies including option plays... for me with CLSN I bought in at a decent price averaging up over time and sold of 1/3rd of my investment taking most of my basis off the table... I have very little to lose at this point, but still hold 2/3rds for what is potentially a very significant upside... I am not particularly sophisticated... just disciplined... I plan to sell another 3rd after data and re-invest in other developmental phase biotechs... and keep the final 3rd to watch CLSN grow into a full-grown biopharma... if you have a plan it does not have to be too risky... but then again risk tolerance is in the eye of the beholder... in this sector we get paid precisely because it is risky... I like the risk/reward equations in this sector... and I have done quite a bit better than those mutual funds and investement specialist tried to put me in jmo... a contrarian i am...
If you continue to invest in developmental phase biotechs you will become familiar with moves like the one you saw yesterday... they have become rather common in front of binary events such as data release and fda approval... more often than not they have proved to be a contrarian indication of good news, not bad for longs... the Roth report indicates that yesterday was about covering short positions... the shorts and bears don't even believe their own bs anymore... do not underestimate the ability of mm's and multi-billion dollar hedgies to manipulate a stock with a 300 million market cap... well, then again, it is not 300 million anymore... using high speed computers they did what they needed to in what about 90 seconds... and the timing is pristine... setting up max pain for option buyers on Friday... but for longs that held this is a pattern that many have learned to recognize as a harbinger of very good news... I am excited for data... I continue to think it will be quite good... of course, if it isn't we take the real plunge... this would then just have been practice... one way or the other the real show takes place following data... you ain't seen nothing yet... jmo...
This stock has been under attack for two days and is holding up quite well in my opinion... huge block orders being filled on the buy side...
This was a finely tuned attack with multiple pieces and purposes... started with the million share dump at market yesterday to run the stops and most likely reverse a short position and go long... then the hit pieces including the downgrade... trying to scare the heck out of retail investors... today and tomorrow will be about max pain for option buyers... this is wall street at its manipulative finest... nothing less and nothing more...
What hasn't changed? The fundamentals of the investment have not changed... this was a winner on Monday and Tuesday when it closed over $9... and it is a winner at today's close also... and a better buying opportunity... The last two days have been interesting to watch... to say the least... but for a value investor who has done the homework... these days mean nothing...
Data soon... and with data everything changes... jmo...
Now that was some impressive manipulation... wish I could do that...
However, it does not in any way, shape or form... change the underlying fundamentals... peace...
lol... Celsion makes me very happy...
You won't have quite as much company as you think... though it is likely a moot point...
Thank you for the cell bio 7... I will start looking at those...
And just to clarify... it worked on human cancer cells placed in nude mice... these were not mouse cancers... it does indeed bode well...
"How come then he never presented bull side view?"
Because that would not fit his agenda...
"He doesn't do science."
Agreed. And since the value of the science really is the single most important fundamental in this sector of developmental phase biotechs... followed closely by competency of management and funding... how in the world can anyone ever take him seriously...
He doesn't do science... you nailed it... and in this sector the science is the value driver...
spike in volume and pps... good signs taken together... very suggestive of good news coming this way for longs... and soon... imo...
half million shares in the past roughly half hour or so... something is going on with volume...
LOL... seriously? Are you a soft basher? Or are you just the type who tends to look at the negative side of life? Or are you new to this and don't really get what is happening here and what is about to happen? I rarely get your posts... of course, that may have more to do with me than with you...
To your statement... I think the company will take what it takes to get us to the read out of topline data... it is likely very, very soon... one way or another everything changes for investors at that point... these small price movements are literally irelevant... MT called it our "transformative" moment... it will be that indeed...
Price action today is irrelevant... it will be the price action following release of data that will matter...
Nice... makes sense with a binary event so imminent that commons could be down a bit, while 2014 options are up... buying time...
Good stuff... my take away is be careful... give yourself time and don't buy too far out of the money...
I am considering getting my feet wet with THLD January '14 calls with $5.00 strike... just a small entry point maybe 10 contracts to learn on... P3 data this fall... current pps is $4+... I don't have a position in THLD at this time... thought this might be a way to initiate... I know this isn't the THLD board... but would love to hear any thoughts on this... pro or con... again... brand new to options... but not a bit fragile... so hammer away... I am here to learn...
If we get positive CLSN data... of which I am confident... I will sell a few shares to rebalance portfolio... the above purchase would be part of that move...
TOB... thanks for the option tutorial... 80% expire worthless... interesting stat... I am just beginning to consider purchasing options as a risk mitigation strategy with biotechs and binary events... and your tutorial was timely... with biotechs the biggest time risk by observation is that delays are very, very common, almost routine... companies announce target dates, but delays push back... happens all the time... thanks again for sharing your thoughts...
as to anyone who bought January '13 calls/puts last Friday... and there were quite a few... they either know something, think they know something, or love to gamble... after today only 9 trading days until expiration...
My thoughts exactly. Keep up the debate as long as you want... my smile gets bigger with each and every post...
Love it... great quotes...
Not to argue with you... but just another perspective... I consider myself an investor, not a trader... I took most of my basis off the table during this consolidation period... I consider risk mitigation strategies to be an essential piece of planning when it comes to investing in developmental phase biotechs...
Wise post wild... and good advice... I lurked here for some time before posting and learned a lot... even now I know when it is more important for me to listen than to post... there is wisdom on this board that can enrich you if you let it...
DrFeelgood... I commend you... you are a patient man to have answered that question so straight forwardly... I tried to do it... but couldn't manage without becoming a smart *&%$...
LOL... a 12 cent drop does not a blood bath make... CLSN has been consolidating for a little over a month now... it has been priced in the $7 to $8 range throughout this timeframe and has not run out of buyers yet... almost 6 million shares purchased above $8 in the first three days of 2013... if you understand the dynamics of the market you will recognize this as bullish... CLSN is building a very solid foundation for its next climb... whether that is before or after data...
while there has been considerable manipulation during this consolidation period... the price has also been held at this level by many of the longer longs selling some of their shares to take de-risking strategies... such as taking basis off the table... purchasing calls... purchasing puts... maybe completing a strangle and so on... nothing wrong with that... those who got in early enough have plenty of profit to use for this purpose... healthy for the investor and the market... in the mean time there are many new investors with basis in the 7s and 8s who plan to hold through data... the consolidation is just about done... and once it is... we take the next leg up on our journey... bon voyage...
Trond... thanks for posting this... I agree... management is confident because of what they know... and they know it without breaking the blind and risking the integrity of the data... management has staked their jobs, the company and their respective careers on this... and this management team is experienced in the rough and tumble world of bringing an indication to market... until a bear can provide a reasonable argument for what happened following the interim review... I am confident that managment knows plenty...
Here is a Q&A... I had on YMB with a poster known as KidCelsion who is highly regarded for his knowledge of statistical methodologies...
Q to KidCelsion: If this is a "Kid Question" thread let me throw one out... you mentioned in a recent post something about the interim review and hinted it seemed to me that bears have not provided an adequate explanation of it... and you are a stats guy... I would love to hear your take on the discussion of the second interim look and that minimal hit to P using Lans-Demets... I think a lot of the newer investors are not aware of all that went down there along with its implications... or maybe I am reading too much into it... what do you think?
A from KidCelsion: "The comment about the interim was not about hits to P value using LD. It was about DMC recommending going to the FDA to discuss adding an additional unplanned analysis subsequent to the planned one. According to a PR (I think) the rationale was to be based on a relatively new technique which allows another look at data saving the used p value when you already have a significant (at interim) result. To me this clearly implies there was small p value observed at the interim and that therefore is is highly likely there will be one at final."
The reason management is so confident regarding the outcome of this trial is that the interim review nearly resulted in a favorable halt of the trial for efficacy... the reasons it did not are as follows:
1) The chair of the DMC is not an advocate of using PFS as an indicator of OS... he would be inclined to push for the maturation of data to get an initial read of OS...
2) The FDA granted a meeting to discuss a second interim using Lans-Demets... that was the last we heard of the second iterim, but that fact that the FDA was willing to discuss it says something to the informed investor...
3) There are many reasons to continue a trial even if it does cross the statistical boundary for efficacy at interim... these reasons include... intergrity of data, acceptance by the medical community and medical providers, acceptance by third party payors...
Here is one specifically regarding DMC trial process:
"DMC's can and do recommend halting trials for either safety or futility... so yes... if they did not see a reasonable possibility for success in the interim data, then they would have recommended halting for futility... it happens... in fact I would suggest trials are halted far more often for safety or futility, then they are halted for efficacy... there are many reasons to continue a trial even if the data crosses the bar for statistical success... there are no good reasons to continue a trial if there are significant safety or futility issues... so those who try to classify the "UNANIMOUS CONTINUATION" verdict as a failure... as "Dr" Anthony did in the comments to Sage's articles... are either blatant bashers or wantonly uniformed... the interim decision favors the bull argument more than the bears... imo...
If you consider the subsequent discussion of management regarding the impact on "p" value of a second interim look... and you understand the implications of that discussion... well, once again... it tends to favor bulls..."
That you posted those comments from Dr. Anthony is just plain silly... here is a reply I provided as part of this ongoing debate on the YMB... Your Dr. Anthony is clueless... he understands neither human behavior nor the clinical trial process...
"Interim results and subsequent management behavior. When MT stated that the DMC suggested the possibility of a second interim and that using Lans-Demets cost approach the impact on P would be minimal he was providing a significant hint imo that the interim results were favorable. I have read bear speculation that this was a ruse by a desperate MT to keep investors from bailing and keep the company afloat. Subsequent bear arguments have also insinuated management deceit and/or manipulation to fool investors – the point always being that management is looking out for itself and willing to betray investors in the process. The most extreme example of this, and most laughable imo, were two recent attempts to suggest that insiders were spending their own funds in order to be able to avoid culpability once the trial fails. The problem with all of the conspiracy type theories is that management never has served their own interests as anticipated. If they were fooling us, using us and manipulating us, then we would have already witnessed their endgame… that is they would have sold shares for a very nice profit, completed an offering to protect their jobs, and partnered with someone on less favorable terms pre-data again to protect their jobs. They have done none of this which would make this a rather foolish conspiracy since they missed their opportunity to cash in… It would be akin to the bank robbers holding up the bank but forgetting to take the loot with them…"
Its interesting hearing you talk about it as your first where you held a position... a bear raid is just theory until it happens to your own stock... it can be very unnerving when you first start investing in these biotechs... seeing your post reminded me of that... the good news is after awhile you get used to them... you can see the signs... learn to prepare emotionally... learn to buy on dips... etc... you survived your first one and are asking great questions trying to learn from it... you are going to do well in this sector... imo...
when did you show up... 15 minutes before the opening bell... run a 6 month chart and tell me what a "dud" this stock is... it's new year's eve... you expected what... huge volume and a precipitous price hike... stick around a couple a weeks... you'll get that soon... imo...
Leo's update to shareholders regarding clinical developments... when you read his letter there are only three possible interpretations: 1) the reader is clueless, doesn't understand the clinical process and shouldn't be invested in developmental stage biotechs 2) the reader is a dedicated short or for some other reason doesn't trust Leo, believes he is a liar, and takes everything he says as its precise opposite 3) the reader understands the clinical process, has some level of trust regarding management and is willing to give the benefit of the doubt... in this case that letter is just amazing... good things are a 'comin... Leo's update blew me away... making me twitterpated once again... He gave us every hint he could possibly give without violating non-disclosure agreements and such... thank you Leo...
Frankly the fact that CTIX has experienced these huge volume days during the holiday trading season when overall volume is low... speaks volumes (pun intended) to me regarding where this is headed... just wait until we get confirmation of P53 activation... it is coming imo... come this time next year your biggest problem regarding CTIX will be what to do about the tax issues it creates for you if you sell any shares (assuming of course your investment is not in a deferred vehicle)...
Fourth the macro economic environment is filled with uncertainty...
Fortunately the good news for us longs is that this stock is not down because the science is bad... thus our investment thesis remains intact... thus the red on your computer screen related to CTIX is largely irrelevant to your overall future outcomes...
Third we are still in holiday season which means volume is inevitably down and those who manipulate the markets love it when volume is low... much easier to manipulate that way...
Have you ever seen volume when a "ship" is sinking?... it is many, many times average...
The interim results clearly favor the bull position... that the bears are trying to insinuate otherwise is a complete red herring... here is why the bear argument is false...
1) P value for an interim halt for efficacy is very high
2) Trials are much more likely to be halted for safety and/or futility, than efficacy... such that the unanimous decision to continue is positive news, not negative
3) Fleming the chair of CLSN's DMC is well-known for his position on PFS as an indicator of OS... that is, he is not and advocate of such and because of that position would almost certainly favor letting the trial continue to maturity to get a better reading on OS
4) There are no good reasons to continue a trial that fails to meet minimum standards regarding safety and futility... there are many good reasons to continue a trial that does actually cross the boundary threshhold for efficacy... those reasons include... integrity of final data, acceptance by the medical community, increased marketability, increased ability to advocate for insurers coverage and so on...
5) It appears the FDA wanted the trial to continue likely because it is a very important trial that will provide much needed scientific data regarding this disease... whether investors win or lose... the data here is going to be a net win for the scientific community and will move research forward...
6) That the DMC suggested a possible second interim with minimal cost to the P value using Lans-Demets cost approach suggests findings that approached the statistical boundary for efficacy... there are many reasons why the FDA might subsequently recommend not doing a second interim see points 4 & 5 above...
Would love to hear a bear try to spin these poins... always open to the contrarian view...
LOL... I can hardly stay in my chair... you wrote, "Typically SA requires a balanced article"... seriously... I have read so many unbalanced articles in SA from both the pump and bash angles... The two hit pieces in SA on CTIX were very one-sided and bashing in tone... this is not particularly unusual with SA... let us not pretend individuals are balanced in their views there or that there is some kind of editorial policy to prevent one-sided pieces that aid market manipulation... there is not...
You aren't with one of the brokerages that support shorting penny stocks, otc stocks... they do exist and people who short know which ones to use... Thinkorswim, Interactive Brokers, for example...
FDA timelines historically have been slow... fast track may not mean exactly the same thing to the FDA as an investor might think... this one looks like a huge winner to me... but investors need to be aware that it could take awhile to really pay off huge... I'll be delighted to be proven wrong and will enjoy hearing "I told you so" all the way to the bank if I am... just know the FDA isn't usually in a hurry... things do seem to be changing a bit though... time will tell...
great post... filled with thoughtful insights and good advice... thank you for taking the time...
it is an easy call for me... never been much of a trader... long horizon investor here... i do recognize that traders create opportunities for longs and vice versa... so it is more symbiotic than adversarial if one understands the dynamics and utilizes it...
agree strongly with your advice about planning to avoid emotional investing... emotions lead us to buy when stocks are green and sell when they are red... which would mean buying high, selling low and losing money... one has to overcome emotions to push the buy button on dips when stocks are in the red...