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BB - Converted shares will hit note holder's accounts on Monday the 12th, correct (or is there a settlement period)? When is the earliest they can trade those shares? Do you think management would announce results before these converted shareholders are able to sell into the news?
Impressive trade management strategy. Too bad your tactic is 180 degrees wrong (short vs long). Most traders (who eventually lose it all int the markets) brag about how their trade management saved them from losing big - GL
Py, thought you learned your lesson Friday. Have you looked? Your shorts are getting trashed! Momentum turning up the heat too :)
BC, quote: "Most of the market expects continuation"
How do you know this? Please explain. Do you have proof?
Are you saying a continuation outcome will be bullish for the pps?
If not, then why has the price action been so bullish the past month? BTW, revs don't attract 60 mil share traded on a massive upside surge in 5 days. Something else is behind it ( like is was for CPXX).
Traders coming back from summer break will be hunting for good setups long and short. AMRN will be at the top of their list IMO (positive/improving fundamentals, bounce off 50EMA/ TL, MACD reversing above centerline, RSI reversal from oversold levels, strong- confirming volume on an upside breakout of a falling wedge)
Rosemont,
Quote:
"FFS, surely you don't believe that at $2.92 that the pps reflects the market expectation of a successful stoppage at 1st interim? I would think the price would have to be somewhat higher. "
Yes I do. I don't think it has as much to do with where the actual pps is versus how it got there and the price behavior the past 30 trading days. We saw a tremendous high volume surge that held ground when it should have slumped more after dilution.
Now with WS trade stations back online, I would expect a runaway gap any moment.
Quote:
"I suppose one could argue that tug of war between those that believe in stoppage are at this very instant are being slightly overcome by those market participants believing in continuation, hence we are at $2.92."
Please explain how you come to this conclusion.
Frankly, technically, I see nothing on the radar that hints of anything bearish like continuation (unless continuation also has other extracurricular positives).
Hoping the best for us Rosemont.
Thanks,
FFS
There will always be money betting on the possibility of stoppage.
Is the market pricing in “continuation?” Many think so. I disagree. If the IA is to result in continuation (absent of any other bullish or bearish news) than I don’t think we would have seen the pps blow out of the upper channel on huge volume, with an ensuing pullback that held support in spite of the dilution/share conversion news. The current setup looks poised to explode.
Could it be that news has in fact leaked (earlier in Aug), explaining why we saw a huge high volume rise? In response, is it possible the note holders suggested that Amarin management exercise the mandatory debt to equity exchange ASAP, before the announcement?
No matter what the case may be, form a TA perspective, this current setup is predictive of a better outcome than just “a continuation of the trial.”
BC, Bases loaded,…AMRN is about to ‘leave the yard’ any moment.
“ he still thinks charts drive events. It is the other way around”
Invest, no, I live near Yellowstone! (scary place sometimes).
Thanks Invest, hopefully the disappointing setbacks are behind us. Perhaps we are about to see the street jump all over this stock and push it up where it belongs.
Cheers,
FFS
AMRN price action is setting up for a big move:
Today's bounce off the 50EMA is loaded with energy. Note all the red volume bars - representing sellers and piggyback shorts who went on margin in an attempt to break support. Huge effort, no reward. Now, we'll likely see a short squeeze run up and the likes of Pyrrhonian will be gone for good (...he left the board today @ 11:12:34 AM).
The next chart contains paint bars representing different degrees of momentum. Big moves follow on the heels of green reversal bars like we witnessed today:
IMO, the soon to be converted share holders have made their adjustments and the price-negative, dilution related activity is backed in.
I'd like to congratulate to all longs who have hung in there through so much adversity - especially during the selling this past week. It feels like the storm is over and the sun is about to shine.
JL, HD, Zum, and all who contribute to this board, thank you for the expertise and extensive information shared. Like Marzan has said, I don't think there is a better group, more deserving of a big reward for all the FDA induced pain and suffering. Maybe Karma is on our side?
Thanks Zum! Wow, so far we know that EPA treats eyes, teeth, heart, colon, arthritis, brain, and mood. Well maybe not mood,...Raf is on V but still acts like a grumpy mean bully-boy.
Dear DMC,
We'd love to meet with you beginning Friday before the Labor Day weekend. This will give us an extra day to travel and complete the process ( if necessary).
Looking forward to our visit.
Amarin Management
Thanks Zumantu!
Isaeed, thanks for your detailed analysis. I have a question about this statement:
b) DMC recommends trial continues without modification. That will be the end of it. No details, no nothing. The only indication this will give is that EPA is working to some degree. Here is where my thinking diverges from all of you. Many who think stock price will tank are wrong. The trial continuing will be a very positive sign and we will start getting more and more attention from BP and market. Trust me on this. Why? Because a recommendation from DMC based on Efficacy analysis, to continue the trial indicates that DMC is confident that at some point in the trial, the RRR will meet or exceed the requirement for success. If they didnt believe it will, then there is no point in trial continuation and spending millions to torture patients in either of the trial arms. So institutions and market should take that as a positive sign and confidence in the company and the drug.
1.97. A risk averse option:
I believe the turn of events (dilution, interim I, II, debt to equity conversion) has enhanced the predictability of the share price behavior in response to a decision to continue or halt.
In essence, the initial response to the Interim announcement will be magnified or muted depending on the result. This lessens the reward/risk. Consequently, I think consideration of a change in risk management is wise. No longer will I be willing to risk as much to a potential worsened selloff in a continuation scenario, because I don’t believe most of the forced-to-be converted shareholders will be committed to sit on dead money for the better part of a year as they wait for IA-2. Rather, there is a high probability of an immediate hedged share dump (drop to 1.97) - creating a great buying opportunity.
Likewise, these same converted shareholders will likely be quick to capitalize on a quick breakout – also creating a great buying opportunity.
So if either scenario sets up a great buying opportunity, then why hold (gamble) a full position (long) going into the announcement when the Reward/Risk ratio has been diminished by recent events?
I shared this table last week comparing the % rise during breakouts of JAZZ, ACAD, and CPXX.
If AMRN followed suit (on average) and broke out from a base price of 3.45, then it would gap and rise to a high of 10.75. However, based on the average performance, stock prices nearly doubled in 1 month from breakout highs. If AMRN were to hold true, we would see a rise to 19.01 following a pullback reversal on the heels of a wave of converted share profit taking.
Finally, if AMRN were to GIA and drug sales ramp as hoped, then there is no reason why it couldn’t/ wouldn’t perform as good as JAZZ did. JAZZ broke out and rose 400 % on news, climbed an additional 118% in one month, then proceeded to print higher highs until reaching an ultimate +17,500 % appreciation in its share price ($1.00 – $176.00 over a 6 year period).
If so much potential is before us, why take bigger risks than necessary by gambling recklessly on a halt?
Marz, read post #90430. The exchange rate of the notes is $2.60 (predetermined by the May, 2014 agreement). The converted shares will be in the money at current prices so in the event of continuation, there is a buffer before these shareholders suffer a loss. This puts a nice floor beneath the pps.
Because of that instant profit, I think the converted shareholders will be inclined to cover their shorts (and hedge converted shares with put options) - unless some already have (remember the 60M shares traded up earlier this mo)? However, short interest is still high. High enough for a sharp spike if the herd is spooked.
Marz, Raf talks about psychiatry.. LOL! He is simply "mirroring" his own harbored anger for holding AMRN while it plummeted. Now that he averaged down (more like doubled down) he puffs his chest with mighty narcissistic and sarcastic posts.
Look Mr Hungarian (JL), your face mask just came off; lost your cover dude. What Hungarian gives a crap about 'deflategate,' let alone types all night long on an AMRN message board. Did you forget you wrote this at 4:30 am in Budepest? LOL! ( maybe EPA can treat multiple personalities?)
FYI, I was a college football QB. Learned firsthand that behind every good head football coach is a better offensive coordinator.
Marz, "...when will they cover? "
IMO, they have suddenly become 'traders'. They find themselves straddling this market with long (converted shares) and short shares (hedges against their notes).
They will no doubt be forced to set parameters (with hard stops) to capture whichever way the market moves.
Will they sell their newly converted shares, or cover hedged shorts?
Here is how I think it plays out:
1. Until Sept. 12, most hold their shorts with stop loss orders to cover if pps spikes above the current consolidation.
2. Once notes are exchanged (Sept. 12), we see heavy upside volume propelled by short covering. I don't see any reason why they would sell newly converted shares before the readout, even if their positions are heavier than anticipated/desired. Rather,
3. We see heavy volume in the Oct. $2 and $3 puts to hedge exchanged long positions as protection against bad news. Watch the option open interest for indications.
But do they have that luxury of waiting time in the middle of the unforeseen Interim that might come thru before 9/12. what are your thoughts?
Pw, haha, I suppose so, if you also think most football teams are schizophrenic because they play both offense and defense during the same game :)
Decision to dilute was defensive, but the decision to convert was aggressive offense and displays confidence in IA results IMO.