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I'll have my checkbook ready... I love a good bargain...
Real deal on dilution...
Dilution is always a risk with developmental phase biotechs... and no investor likes dilution, but there is a worse scenario than dilution and that is if the company has no money to move the science forward...
I am optimistic that AMBS will be able to find alternative ways to fund the science... but if they do need some reasonable dilution along the way I will be ok with it and utilize it as a buying opportunity when share price inevitably dips...
The key for me is always the science and the ability of management to move the science forward toward monetization... as long as that is happening... I know my investment will be just fine...
Excellent... Your odds here a much better than at the casino. One day maybe you will buy the casino with proceeds from your dime AMBS stock... and then you will be the house and you will always win...
LOL... there are always some who claim it isn't real... my experience suggests that they are either 1) sadly misinformed or 2) have an entirely different investing agenda... frequently it is the latter... I have learned that they are useful tools for me in that they create very nice entry points for accumulation... I am grateful to them for that... beyond that they are little more than white noise...
Make no mistake... there is no guarantee of success with a stock like this, so no one should be investing the rent money... but the science here is very, very real and exciting... 1, 5 and 10 years from now the entry price of a dime is likely to look absurd... I have plenty of dimes...
I am a value investor in developmental phase biotechs... as such I couldn't care less about the day-to-day movements in the pps... other than as it presents attractive entry points for the accumulation phase of my investing strategy... so a nickle pps would be just fine by me... though I doubt we get there...
The only thing that really matters to me is the science... if the science is good everything else tends to take care of itself over time... I have been conducting dd and have initiated a position in AMBS... the science here is excellent...
That seems an odd choice as a comparison...
Ridaforolimus, Ariad/Merck's sarcoma drug actually met its PFS endpoint, albeit modestly... it was rejected by AdCom 13-1 in March of last year and then officially rejected by the FDA in June... Here is an excerpt...
"In a late stage SUCEED study by Ariad Pharmaceuticals and Merck, patients with soft tissue sarcoma who took ridaforolimus showed a median progression free survival rate of 17.7 weeks, higher by three weeks compared to those on placebo.
However, an FDA analysis contended that the difference in survival rate was about two weeks, and also raised concerns over the drug's effects like infections and kidney damage."
Between ridaformolimus and thermodox there is little comparison regarding mechanism of action, safety profile, etc... I don't think much of this comparison... am I missing something?
http://www.rttnews.com/1844915/fda-panel-rejects-ariad-merck-s-sarcoma-drug-ridaforolimus.aspx
lol... my first thought too... a premonition...
I'll bet he didn't get the kind of money to do that by making bad investments either...
Save him from what?
lol... all depends on how much toasting you plan to do and for how long...
I think I just saw a red herring fly past my window...
Church continues to say January... I am confident the company will deliver results by end of the month... I think 99% of us here are confident of that...
Thanks for the update... the accumulation by big buyers is another excellent sign... feeling very good about the way all the tea leaves are lining up... appreciate your report...
Yes. They know.
The market has caught on to this... it just did not react the way you anticipated... last week's action was in addition to opex all about this... ever since the million share dump... and corresponding plunge... heavy hitters having been buying up large blocs daily... they will continue to hold the share price down as long as they can as they accumulate prior to data... small retail investors are not able at these volumes to move pps significantly... the game has rolled over... the big boys are accumulating... everyone knows the outcome... and it is good... we are just running out the clock now to get to the final score and find out whether results are good or stupendous... imo...
I liked it when it was announced... I am liking it more now that I have slept on it and the full ramifications are sinking in... attempts to spin this as neutral or negative are sounding increasingly desperate to my ears...
I agree completely... this is white noise... first the data is most likely going to be released in January especially since the company continues to provide that as guidance... second if it somehow does spill over into early February you can be certain that I will continue to wait... the folks who were going to sell pre-data pretty much got shaken out last week... imo...
Great post... wonder why their pps has gone up since announcement? Don't they read AF? Don't they get that this little 300 mil MC company has totally pulled the wool over their eyes? lol...
You don't suppose Hisun actually does a litte due diligence of their own before signing a deal like this do you?
well said... and if you read the release this deal is worth potentially hundreds of millions of dollars for this one market... suddenly CLSN has cash to ramp other trials and move forward with a vigorous pipeline amidst a steady revenue flow... this is not a deal that smacks of desperation... i have seen a few of those over the years... this ain't it... if you want in the Chinese market you better partner with a Chinese company... Hisun is an excellent choice...
exactly... who should i give the benefit of the doubt to at this point... MT or AF? not a hard call for me...
That should read any good reputation... if he pulls a stunt like that he would definitely earn a reputation...
Wonder if MT wants to have any reputation left moving forward with his business career or if he is ready to hang it up... such a move would surely leave his reputation badly damaged with both investors and potential future employers/partners...
Many things are possible... not all are equally likely... this one seems like a stretch...
Unlikely Hisun parts with 5 million, non-refundable, pre-data without having a pretty good idea that data is going to be good...
From the article... without comment...
"And from the day of that first strange occurrence in September 2005, when Cramer predicted that Dendreon would become a “battleground” stock, to the latest strange occurrence in April 2009, when Dendreon’s stock nosedived by 65% in 75 seconds, more than 60,000 men in the United States died of prostate cancer.
So we must ask: Who did this? Who stood to profit from Dendreon’s demise?"
wow... just wow...
With pre-clinical findings just released and IND getting started... I am guessing that phase I clinical won't start until 2014... other thoughts?
enjoyed that... thanks for taking the time to post it...
I saw that... between NFL and VA there are some monied interests that will be paying attention to the TBI research...
I work with wounded soldiers... the possibility of a TBI indication is personally interesting to me... after many years of war there is a great need for such...
very, very interesting pre-clinical work... thanks for posting... just beginning my dd...
"There will NOT be an unbroken AMBS run up"
Though such a run up is the investor's dream... it never happens that way does it... it just is not the way the market works... this looks like a very interesting stock to me and I am considering building a position in it... but anyone claiming it is too late or will soon be too late for entry... just does not understand the process... if this stock is as good as longs here are saying... a dime, a quarter, per share... all are bargains...
When you really think about it what does shorting a company that is trying to bring a new treatment indication for HCC do? What does manipulating its stock do? Who does it hurt? Well it certainly hurts the under-informed retail investor, the weak hand, the dabbler, who will most likely buy high, sell low and run fretting once manipulation begins... and then stay away from the market complaining about the unfairness of it all... it does not hurt the serious long investor... in fact the truly savy investor takes advantage of the games of the market to buy on good price points and can do so much later in the game because of this type of activity... so who does it really hurt?
It hurts the company that is trying to bring the indication to market because it makes it so much more difficult to raise funds at a reasonable price... selling their shares on the cheap... or in desperate times turning to toxic financing options... it hurts the companies...
Which means that ultimately it hurts the cancer patient... because heavy shorting and market manipulation make it more difficult to bring an indication to market... there will be fewer indications... fewer treatment options...
One's heart is never far from one's wallet... for most of us humans anyway... so when one makes a living shorting small biotechs... one's heart is routinely rooting for failure of their treatment indications... which whether we know it or not, admit it or not, means we are ultimately rooting against the cancer patient... over time... if one does this a lot over time... does it begin to make that person small and cynical... I wonder...
I understand the short game and the market manipulation... I take advantage of it myself by buying low... I am not claiming moral superiority... I just don't think I want to make a living or become wealthy by rooting against cancer patients...
Feuerstein, Aschoff... names that pop-up again and again around eerily similar events with developmental phase biotechs... not all analysts are analysts...
Exactly... I think it was showing off... The manipulation this week was quite impressive... well coordinated attack with multiple waves played out over three days... fortunately it does nothing to change the investment thesis of longs... data soon...
no worries... pure market manipulation... investment thesis remains strongly intact... not a scratch on it even after a three-day siege... and data is one day closer...
...brought it right down on $7... unbelievable... coincidence... or showing off...
good find... thanks for posting... given what we know about Heat trial the control arm has to outperform by a ridiculous amount... Kolbi estimates it has to outperform by at least 33% (16 mos) as he puts 16-21 months pfs for control in the grey area for outcome... i think it has to outperform by 50%+ to sink the data... the chances of that happening are quite modest... imo...
the control arm of clinical studies varies... sometimes its a placebo such as sugar pill or water... sometimes its another standard of care treatment protocol...
good luck to you as well... i pass no judgement on anyone else's investing strategy... we each have to find our own level of risk tolerance and investing comfort... i would never recommend that someone do as i do... i just put it out there as part of the discussion... there are many investors on this board who are much more knowlegeable than i am... i am here mostly to learn...
by the way there are many types of risk when it comes to money... including inflationary risk which steadily eats away at the buying power of those who invest with utmost caution... upside to all strategies... and downside to all strategies... pick your poison as they say...