is... a buy and hold investor of dividend US and Canadian stocks
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Use a Decision Tree.
Decision: Potential Outcome(s) Result
1) You sit tight
Stock Recovers Good! Your position
worth more.
Stock Tanks more Good! You can buy even
lower or you lose
less.
2) You buy more
Stock Recovers You are
still down, just not
as much.
Stock Tanks more Lousy. down more. risk
more.
I have never done this, but it is a really useful model. I think this is the basis for Options Pricing. You could put probabilities and dollar outcomes to each path.
Point is, I like Decision #1 myself. Buying more in the hope of lowering your loss or potential loss = Greed. One of the Seven Deadly Sins..
i had this like a spreadsheet with tabs.. did not work. you get the idea.
IMO Patience = waiting until just the right moment to buy, patience does not mean buying and then being patient.. that just sucks.
when I started I had this thing .. MTM. Mitec Telecom. small telecom company in Canada. I read in the paper one day that it had gone up because Nortel had gone up.. I thought hmmm. I bought it. it went from 1.x to 4.xx for absolutely no good reason other than following Nortel. Nortel was one of those companies in 2004 that everyone thought they had to have, including me. Because it was once at $120. Nortel cooked the books and got back up to 10.xx. MTM was just riding the coattails. I sold.. then I bought back in as it went down. at 2.x 1.x. Thought i was a smart guy. Play the ups and downs. No, I was stupid. Lucky in the first place, but at least I recognized the opportunity. Really stupid to buy back. Was not patient. It had no reason to go up to 4.xx in the first place.. I lost a good portion of my previous profits.
anyway. look at things as they really are.. and be patient. Don't just buy more because it is lower. where would it have gotten you with UWKI? Where are they going to end up in another qtr, based on what you know?
btw, MTM is now at .10.
I know it is a difficult decision... I can only try to help. Without making any recommendation yay/nay on UWKI:
are there other stocks out there that represent more enticing opportunities? The more plays on the go, the better are the odds for coming out ahead. This can be statistically proven.
How are you going to feel if it goes lower after you buy?
what if you "walked away" for awhile and let things sort themselves out? go play tennis, followed by an nbeer.
what is likely to happen now... given what you now know?
if it goes even lower.. wouldn't you feel better being able to get in even lower..
bottom feed. WAIT
WAIT
WAIT EVEN Longer..
be patient..
let matters resolve themselves..
bottom feed like a carp.
.50 may seem low.. but maybe not in a few months.
it is tax loss selling time of the season.
btw not ignoring you Raw. It is a billing/financial thing. Give me about a week or so..
The author is the first person to state that with such clarity. As an investor, to invest on the possibility they make it is in my view, gambling. May as well go and play craps. I don't gamble because I know the odds are always against me. There is one situation in craps where there are positive odds, but I never understood it. Took me 5 minutes to lose $40 and then I quit.. lol.
anyway, I posted a long time ago that uWink had to be stable financially before being successful in the software business, because potential customers will shy away from them if they are not financially sound. Hence, when I thought they could break even with the restaurants I thought they had a chance. Now, I don't know.
The author of the article portrays it as a race against time. Everybody needs to realize that this is likely going to fail. It is certainly not worth risking hard-earned money on. What uWink could do is take the necessary action to become financially sound on 3 restaurants. This will involve massive cost-cutting and some restructuring. Unpleasant. But, when they do that, they are suddenly in good shape. The restaurants will serve as a platform from which to mount a sales campaign.
I would advise waiting another qtr for that to happen..
Most hitech companies struggle to get their first contract, execute, get the second, execute,,, before they can become a stable business. This is a unique approach. Build a restaurant and try to survive, then sell the technology.. lol.
Bull:
Your post contains lots of good thoughts and ideas, however in my view you are doing wishful thinking. I have had a loss on this stock recently, so I have nothing to brag about, I just want to call a spade a spade.
Your method for what the company is worth took a second reading to understand but is not useful in terms of predicting the stock price. You did the same thing at .80. Just because somebody could buy the company for that price does not mean that they will. Stocks take time to come to their intrinsic value, something that a smart investor can use to his/her advantage. The value of a stock is only future earnings streams. Right now, uWink is only potential, with a strong financial risk, i.e. it could be worth zero. The only other way to imagine a value for a stock is break-up value. The unique thing about hitech companies is that they have no breakup value, no capital. All uWink is is cash, and that is depleting rapidly. And what gives you the idea that their management will act rationally and pack it in if it is hopeless? Usually they do what is right for them. They could have put that money in the bank, collected interest, and done better for the shareholders. I look at this as something that could be worth next to nothing in a few months. Roughly, I think this is a buy at .10-.20. That fairly represents uWink's break-up value and potential revenue.
- how good is their product?
- every vendor I know has positive-sounding stuff in their literature of the kind mentioned in the article. I have had too many companies go bankrupt to take it seriously. When their stocks tank they are very enticing buys, simply because they are cheap. It is usually folly.
- their statement that they have 12 months of life is BS.
- they have no sales force, a sales force alone cost 500k/year.
As an example of a high-tech company with similar problems, check out LYT on the TSX Venture Exchange. Lyrtech. Very intriguing company. Last year I first bought them at .07. They have been as high as .50. They are into DSP technology (digital signal processing). The kind of thing that is lots more stable than uWink. Contracts in hand, an order backlog... well I kept on buying. In January they got served with a demand note from their bank. Stock plunged to .005. It traded for awhile at .015-.02 and now oscillates between .01 and .015. Fascinating. Now they are break-even and in fact were profitable last qtr. Guess what else, they want to do a R/S! Except they call it a "grouping".. lol. That is what happens to a financially troubled stock...
I have observed lots of hitech stocks... I have very rarely, and only in good times, seen one recover from a situation like this. People on this board could lose their shirts.
On the bright side uWink has no debt, they just need to control their costs.. lots. That, combined with revenue from their restaurants, could save them.
Also, you made a comment about why someone who is not a shareholder would want to post here. Well, I have been a shareholder, but I am not now. I am just interested, that is all. Sounds like you just want to hear positive stuff. Well, negative stuff can be useful as well. Like maybe helping people to make up their minds to get the heck out of it. Something like this could seriously damage a person's finances if they can't. And if someone does choose to post that they think a stock will go down and the reasons why... they are obviously not going to be a shareholder. If they mean what they say, they will sell. In other words, not being a shareholder and posting negatively go hand-in-hand. Ergo, you only want to hear positive "constructive" information. Turn the light on...
Just calling a spade a spade.
This is a well-written article. Exceptional, as a matter of fact. He captures it really well here:
"There is a very real possibility that uWink will go out of business before they ever make enough money to justify more debt financing to continue their operations.
It basically boils down to these two scenarios:
uWink is unsuccessful or marginally successful with their current restaurants, but cannot sign up enough software and licensing deals to make up for their burn rate and overhead, can’t get financing, and go out of business.
uWink is unsuccessful or marginally successful with their current restaurants, and signs enough software and licensing deals to make up for their burn rate and overhead, are able to get additional financing at reasonable terms, and stay in business
In either scenario, the success of uWink’s restaurants is NOT material to their future success.
As such, you have to understand the business and what you are getting yourself into before purchasing shares in uWink.
I caution you to allocate funds for uWink that you can afford to lose completely, and reiterate that uWink is the absolute most risky investment that you’ll ever partake in, at least one that’s legal and isn’t found at the craps tables."
I only take exception to one thing he is saying. He states repeatedly that uWink can survive for 12 months in terms of cash flow. He is wrong. It is worse than that. He is taking their statements at face value and not looking beyond them.
I would like to take the time for a detailed analysis on a proforma basis, maybe I will, but from what I know:
- they have Working Capital of 2.2 M.
- they have to spend a further 600k to get MV up and running.
(2.2-.6 = 1.6)
- they burned through 1.6 M or something this qtr.
So they may burn through 1.3 M this next qtr.. and be left with 500k - 1M in cash or Working Capital.
Rather, they need immediate changes. Under these circumstances the CFO sometimes resigns. It is his responsibility to ensure some kind of cost control is in place, even if no on wants it. Usually he is the fall guy if there is a problem. Could happen before next qtr.
Bottom line is they are running out of time quickly.
Financial trouble is the worst thing for a stock. This thing could go ower than anybody can possibly imagine. Cost cutting will have same effect.
However, if you are a bottom feeder, you could really profit if they make it.
My prediction: this will become a .10 - .20 stock before the year is out.
i did not mean to be quite so direct... hit the return button.. could have added.. "it just took a few days" to lessen the impact"..
I read this book a few yearws ago when I started.. author (atrader) says:
The Four Golden Rules of Trading..:
1. The trend is your friend
2. Never average down.
3. Cut your losses
4. Let your profits run
the third one.. and the first one.
FWIW I got somewhat burned by this too. I am sympathetic to all those that remain on board uWink Air.
THUD!
THUD!
consider the following two posts:
"I went to uWink yesterday and I think the place is drab and boring"
"I visited uWink yesterday. IMO, the colour scheme and ambience does not appeal to 21-35 yr olds, the uWink target market. I also would think that, IMO, the games lack the kind of appeal that that age group demands."
The second statement took alot more thought and effort. I as a reader can tell that the poster could have put more effort into the first one and that it is a little negative. But, I would prefer he post it rather than not. I spend all day wordsmithing things and worrying excessively about pissing people off. This is a welcome break from that headache.
Raw, you have both a good point and a bad one in this message. You are stating yourself well here.
Your first paragraph is asking a personal question that this person does not have to divulge and is making an assumption that his/her opinions is not valuable because of his age/gender. This is not reasonable, as there are plenty of brand and product managers working at P&G and other places that do their jobs quite well without being in the same age category as their target market! They conduct research of all kinds, assimilate the results, make decisions, and do quite well. They don't have to be 25-year old kids to do that.
Your second paragraph offends no one and contains useful information. So why don't you leave it at that?
I think you just need to be right all the time.
This discussion has gotten way off base and personal. No one has to post here anything they don't want to. Their age is on their personal profile, which is for them to post. Age is of course important in uWink's marketing strategy, which has a bearing on what they are like at 5:00 PM on a Saturday. But having said that, there are certain questions which you are not allowed to ask in a job interview.. one being age. Likewise here, it is not fair to ask and no one has to post that information. It does not make their observations more or less relevant. I am nowhere near LA, so I appreciate all the reports I can get.
Once again, it is a contest of who is right and who is wrong, the only answer is noone and everyone.
On a more positive note, if you look at this stock as a technology stock, a vendor, it is unique in that there are very few vendors that can boast of having money-making enterprises (the restaurants) that double as marketing tools. There are 2 ways of looking at uWink, either as a restaurant chain with technology, or as a technology company with restaurants. The drivers for both are different.
The problem is that is trying to be both and really doing well at neither, and also not communicating it's strategy for success to shareholders in a way that can be readily understood. It is a kind of weird hybrid.
As a restaurant chain, they are top-heavy, expensive in terms of a franchise, and the best they can do is break-even in the short-and-medium term. The franchising agreement I have seen has nothing in it for them in terms of profit except a puny 4% Royalty, which I believe was designed for a much larger expansion to have any effect. And the SG&A is way too high, IMO. And I further believe they are not practicing any kind of cost control and looking realistically at the future.
As a technology vendor, they are in their early stages in terms of marketing their product. At least, there is nothing visible that tells me what they are doing. Most tech companies conceive of great ideas, put together a prototype, then sell it hard and struggle to deliver what they promised. uWink appears to have the goods, but is nowhere on marketing. There is no evidence of any revenue stream other than the restaurant chain. Lots of potential, that is not my point. Smart companies compromise and try to build relationships with major players (restaurant chains?)... with money.
Their product development, on the other hand, is well along. They should have something they can market successfully. Over the last 5-10 years they have invested something like 10 Million. So why aren't they more focussed on selling what they have?
Financially, they are structured more like a restaurant than a hitech company, just ridiculously top-heavy. The terms of the senior's deal (100K licensing fee) represent more the kind of revenue stream and deals they need. Hitech companies usually have kick-ass R&D budgets, whereas uWink has a small staff.
Anyway, I would like to calculate exactly there they will be in 3-4 months, but in looking at their burn rate, not good. If I had more of a sense of how they intend to leverage their restaurants or market their products, it may get interesting. Right now it appears as if hey will have a crisis very shortly. I can't see how they can avoid getting down to 500k in cash in another qtr, how can they keep going?
That could kill the stock price and makes the whole thing very risky. But, it could also represent a buying opportunity if a licensing deal or potential comes along. After all, they have revenue-generating restaurants that double as showrooms. They are just burning too much money.
I wonder to what extent the shareholders, especially those that partook in the 2007 offering, have the right to be angry for feeling that he misrepresented his intentions? After all, didn't uWink state that they intended to start a "chain" of restaurants (corporate and franchise)? They did not state that they wanted to build 3 "showcases", run a money-losing fat cat operation, and come to the brink of insolvency... did they???
All in all, quite an interesting and unique situation.
Yes we agree on most of it. They are another software company, a vendor. I think software is one of the toughest businesses in the world to be in. Real hard to pick winners. Every vendor wants and talks about the Big Deal. Problem is, it is either that or nothing. I tend to look for things that are a little out of the ordinary or that have a killer competitive advantage. Industrials are much better/ more stable.
More on that later...
anyway, I just had to compare this with what else is out there now, and I just had to let it go. Part with my emotions and get it over with..
How can they do this with that much of investors money I wonder?.. of course i could be speaking to soon, it could all turn around when they get that Big Deal..
Mrs Fields.. aren't they the cookie guys? There is one in TOronto. THey make good cookies!!!
Congratulations, you are right again!
what about a long slow death instead of a quick merciful one?
same result...
I misunderstood you. I thought you were talking about the "big selloff" that occurred 1.5 months ago. My answer was in relation to that. I can tell you I did not sell today, however. I noticed it did noticeably go down today, at least the Bid/Ask (which has been stable and constant) came down considerably.
I do have one regret. When "the big selloff" of 1.5 months ago happened, I should have acted sooner. I expected something, it did not happen, and I should have acted immediately. No real good reason why I didn't. But this is a hard game to play and it is senseless to beat yourself up.
Opening costs for the MV location were stated in the Q as the same as for HH (1 Million).
My volume would not have any impact. Insignificant. I made a decision and am comfortable with it. The reasons why i thought it would go up with the HH opening were wrong. Now I don't understand it, have other things I am interested in, don't know what will move itup, and would rather look for a lower re-entry point. Also, frankly it scares me..
Actually, I am not a shareholder at present. I was, and remain interested.
The Money Flow indicator is way down... stock is kind of drifting down. I think it is so low now it has nowhere to go!
Actually if you read that recent interview with Nolan that was posted here, it is clear he does work very hard. If he is an entrepreneur, that would be part of his makeup. I mean to take a closer look at those statements and try to figure out exactly where they are headed. I am sure there are things they could be doing to reduce costs, increase sales (hire a sales force?) etc, and those things may not be in line with Nolan's vision or perfect world. But, I would like to take that closer look first, or else it is completely uninformed. What I wrote was my first gut reaction. Noticed the stock has not collapsed today. I don't believe that only one major institutional holder pulled out a month and a half back. If that was it it would have recovered. More like a general selloff.
Institutions can't take the kind of risks that others can because they are using OPM (Other People's Money). If uWink was going to go down the drain they would get out in a hurry, no questions asked. Speaking of which, they are probably asking a few questions today.
Curious if this company has a Board of Directors to be the shareholder's voice and provide some direction.
volume does not work on the video..
get a load of that Phelps eh? we (Canada) suck at sports. Sorry, I am rambling..
are you always on here? what time is it there.. midnight?
More to the point, I said that as a result of the financials divulged, the stock would "fall like a stone". I don't think that is rambling, in fact is very relevant to anybody reading this. Also think it is a worthwhile contribution.
But, I don't really know. If I really knew these things, I would have been a millionaire a long time ago. I don't think anybody knows.
Let's see what happens.
translation: they did not bother to find a place or commit to building a uWink location. I actually think Miami would be an excellent location. High Spanish-speaking population. Lots of people with money. Tourists, lots of happening places. I was in South Beach last year , taking a cruise. It could use some revitalization, but what potential...
Like I have said before, it is just an internet discussion board. I don't have to prove anything I say, but I always try to offer facts and interpret or build on them. Accordingly, I posted exactly the information from the report and the reasons why I don't like it, plus putting 2 and 2 together like they will be out of money soon. That is contrary to their positive-sounding rhetoric in their report.
If you don't like it. That is ok. If you think I am rambling, that is OK too. I am not sure what your objectives or hopes are with this stock, but whatever they are, Good luck.
That is not even a personal attack, Net, because I don't understand your point. I have said before that you have got balls, but is that all you have got? At some point you must admit that there is a problem and maybe things just won't work out. Most companies I have watched that have financial problems solve them at the expense of shareholders (like doing a reverse Split and issuing shares). Or they go bankrupt.
Whatever it is you are trying to say, why don't you put some facts behind it and form an opinion based on it? Meanwhile, yes I can breathe through both of those orifices at once. Can you fart while speaking? Interestingly enough, I am a piano player and can't talk while playing.
By the way, on Monday, average down some more!! Pretty soon you will own the whole company!
My reaction to your comment about the rumors at the Grand Opening was that these kind of rumors are always coming from software vendors, especially from company executives. As a listener you have got to put a filter on it.
Glad to see you are remaining objective.
Thanks for illuminating that. I was wondering myself. You pulled that from the statements?
Well I hate to say this but I think this company is now financially screwed. No fancy analysis, but did not like the Q report. No amount of quoting positive-sounding statements from their report will counter that sentiment. What really stuck out in my mind (from reading the commentary, not the statements) was:
-"Net sales for the three and six months ended July 1, 2008 decreased by $215,328 and $249,010(30% and 19%) to $503,367 and $1,048,560, from $718,694 and $1,297,570, respectively, for the three and six months ended July 3, 2007."
Revenue growth is a basic requirement of success. Causes everyone to completely rethink things. The negative early reports on H&H were true then. They should be marketing the shit out of this place. What is Alissa doing?
-"We believe that the decrease in revenue in our Woodland Hills restaurant is attributable to a combination of the following factors:
* General weakness in the Southern California/Woodland Hills economy;
* The natural tendency for a new restaurant concept to experience a drop in revenue in its second year of operation; "
True but irrelevant... these are obstacles investors expect a company to overcome, not to state.
-"Regular updating of the software in our Woodland Hills restaurant, which functions as our test lab, which has prevented us from offering guests a consistent experience in Woodland Hills; and
* Our experimentation, starting in early 2008, with a new method for pricing our game play, under which we charged game "credits" to play our games and patrons earned game "credits" with food purchases. Customer feedback on this pricing mechanism was largely negative and, in response, we have reverted to a game play model that allows unlimited game play without additional charge for the first 70 minutes of a guest's visit."
This is making excuses. Never seen a technology company publish such trash. No one cares. Solve the problem, don't write about it.
- "As a result, our loss from operations for the three and six months ended July 1, 2008 was $1,612,256 and $2,932,966, compared to a loss of $1,372,852 and $2,650,990 for the three and six months ended July 3, 2007, representing an increase of $239,403 (17.4%) and $281,976 (10.6%), respectively."
Holy shit. And the fact that they have only spent 400k on MV is ringing warning bells as well. If they were serious they would have invested the capital and got the place up and running. With this much left to spend (total = 1M), they cannot possible get it open by end of August. Especially adding in time for testing, etc.
Given their burn rate (worse than I thought) and their declining sales, in very short order (by Xmas) they will be in trouble. How much are they going to have left after another qtr like this and after investing in MV?
Holy shit. If this came out after market close today.. it will fall like a stone on Monday.
Sorry if I offend anybody, just IMO.
posts?
repetitive ueselss
I can make
implying that
are you
thanks.
Now for the fifth time.. what up?
wait justone minute buddy...
just a second now.. oops, pop-up f'ed me up..