Bull:
Your post contains lots of good thoughts and ideas, however in my view you are doing wishful thinking. I have had a loss on this stock recently, so I have nothing to brag about, I just want to call a spade a spade.
Your method for what the company is worth took a second reading to understand but is not useful in terms of predicting the stock price. You did the same thing at .80. Just because somebody could buy the company for that price does not mean that they will. Stocks take time to come to their intrinsic value, something that a smart investor can use to his/her advantage. The value of a stock is only future earnings streams. Right now, uWink is only potential, with a strong financial risk, i.e. it could be worth zero. The only other way to imagine a value for a stock is break-up value. The unique thing about hitech companies is that they have no breakup value, no capital. All uWink is is cash, and that is depleting rapidly. And what gives you the idea that their management will act rationally and pack it in if it is hopeless? Usually they do what is right for them. They could have put that money in the bank, collected interest, and done better for the shareholders. I look at this as something that could be worth next to nothing in a few months. Roughly, I think this is a buy at .10-.20. That fairly represents uWink's break-up value and potential revenue.
- how good is their product?
- every vendor I know has positive-sounding stuff in their literature of the kind mentioned in the article. I have had too many companies go bankrupt to take it seriously. When their stocks tank they are very enticing buys, simply because they are cheap. It is usually folly.
- their statement that they have 12 months of life is BS.
- they have no sales force, a sales force alone cost 500k/year.
As an example of a high-tech company with similar problems, check out LYT on the TSX Venture Exchange. Lyrtech. Very intriguing company. Last year I first bought them at .07. They have been as high as .50. They are into DSP technology (digital signal processing). The kind of thing that is lots more stable than uWink. Contracts in hand, an order backlog... well I kept on buying. In January they got served with a demand note from their bank. Stock plunged to .005. It traded for awhile at .015-.02 and now oscillates between .01 and .015. Fascinating. Now they are break-even and in fact were profitable last qtr. Guess what else, they want to do a R/S! Except they call it a "grouping".. lol. That is what happens to a financially troubled stock...
I have observed lots of hitech stocks... I have very rarely, and only in good times, seen one recover from a situation like this. People on this board could lose their shirts.
On the bright side uWink has no debt, they just need to control their costs.. lots. That, combined with revenue from their restaurants, could save them.
Also, you made a comment about why someone who is not a shareholder would want to post here. Well, I have been a shareholder, but I am not now. I am just interested, that is all. Sounds like you just want to hear positive stuff. Well, negative stuff can be useful as well. Like maybe helping people to make up their minds to get the heck out of it. Something like this could seriously damage a person's finances if they can't. And if someone does choose to post that they think a stock will go down and the reasons why... they are obviously not going to be a shareholder. If they mean what they say, they will sell. In other words, not being a shareholder and posting negatively go hand-in-hand. Ergo, you only want to hear positive "constructive" information. Turn the light on...
Just calling a spade a spade.
