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I agree about the multiple -- investors in a recap have to have some meat on the bone to compensate their taking on the risk of investing. In this case, one has all the damn political risk too -- and investors need to be compensated for that risk.
Ackman also earlier sketched a plan that got to an SP of $25-48 for the common, but at the earlier lower earnings under old tax structure. So INCREASE those SP estimates! Ackman had retained earnings over a number of years PLUS staggered equity raises, over a number of years, against that background.
In that case, the SP goes up, risks go down, the SP values are more clearly supported and the cash take from the raises goes up -- and hence the SP too.
The capital requirement is being put high since the TBTF bank lobby still has the dream of taking business, either by screwing the recap completely or making FnF's model more expensive...
I really hope Mnuchin is going to try something that is legally dubious, but we are going to go to Sweeney's court of claims, so bring it all along lol
Yeah, the en banc hearing is perfectly timed -- if they invalidate the sweep and order the senior preferred are extinguished as remedy, THEN Mnuchin has most of the cover he needs to do the R&R...
Washington Federal (or whatever it is called) would remain, I would be interested what other cases would be rendered moot by such an action.
It is hard to see why a few years of retained earnings, alongside (i) an equity raise and (ii) monies that get released internally (I remember Tim Howard suggesting there was tens of billions in loss provisions or some such).
We shall see.
Add that to a lower capital requirement.
I hope the SP does not reflect someone having a friend at Treasury...
The initial announcement of a process and plan is one thing.
Gonna take quite a long time to organize a recap, unless they already talked to Wall street firms -- and they will need more than one on this mega-deal!
So, got to get a firm(s), do the due diligence, organize documents, prospectus, etc., then finally go public in a roadshow with the usual time for that.
Along the way, they may also need to settle with Plaintiffs in various cases... which would be another ball of wax. How do they force all holders to accept a deal? No BK court to impose it... Can FHFA imposed a settlement? God knows, our Judicial friends say it can do anything without review.
People should keep some powder dry, since they may well offer existing holders new shares at a discount. Though Ackman loves warrants too - I got those in both the GGP bk and the GM bk settlements. (In GM, I held a great deal of prefereds...)
Joseph, I will see you on the moon - thanks for the invite.
About June 15th by my guess...
Not a recco.
Careful Joseph, remember your heart, you want to live to enjoy your riches...
Please take 3 deep breathes and an aspirin
This IS a recco
So we fully disagree.
Little Bobby Corker is a lame duck, no reason to coddle him by letting him have any additions to a bill now... Bobby is all done and on the Trump shitlist.
McConnell is also going to be wary of messing with the administrations plans going forward. The President is pissed and firing first, asking questions later -- McConnell does not want to provoke a reaction.
No Jumpstart coming this go-around...
The announcement of the FHFA nominee, or the interim replacement (Mulvaney?), is the more interesting upcoming news.
I am... for good or ill lol
We haven't been to the Court of Claims yet,...
The Court of Claims, and Judge Sweeney, should neither be forgotten, or underestimated.
It is pretty clearly a taking... and all the actions to prevent recompense are unconstitutional, pretty clearly too.
The ex-Chief Justice of the Delaware Supreme court is "Fake"?
Your "analysis" has lost all credibility. Time for ignore...
Moelis revised blueprint says $14-17 with new shares and warrants exercised.
Sorry ??
Amen to that
Short total for FNMA? Anyone have handy an accurate estimate for the total shares shorted for FNMA - my guess is that it has greatly increase the last month or two. Curious whether that is true...
If they also find capital on the books - Tim Howard suggested they had a lot tied up in various ways - then push that SP up further, and the government take too ofc
This values the common pretty highly, lol, where is the oblivion?
if government get 100-125 billion for THEIR shares, what our YOUR (or maybe OUR?) shares worth?
Take your trolling elsewhere LOL
If the government makes 100-125 billion from THEIR shares, then how much are YOUR shares worth?
This is obviously good for common shareholders...!
Lol Gowdy will break your heart...
We should be so lucky, lol
These preffered holders like to troll us here -- but no one stops them trolling
Je suis la taupe... I bought at 1.26, sorry buddy. It is les chiens mangent les chiens... ;)
Someone either thinks they know something OR has a reason for keeping the common SP down for some reason (perhaps settlement talks?)
Yeah, we need some shock therapy -- Judge Sweeney will give the order for treatment...
Explicit confirmation of admin policy!!
OFC the details matter, BUT ONLY IF the admin is not going to try to shut her down like the shorts and TBTF lobby have been predicting...
Mnuchin is restoring her for release and a long life on the road with her time-tested framework -- sure the details are interesting... BUT this is VERY encouraging.
(Not going to be Calabria, Hensaerling, (not)Bright, etc...given this orientation. Otting is Mnuchin's man to guide this through IMHO)
Launch code received...
Time to buy lol, gtg lol...
Plus that is price at the ipo - common goes up from there..
Otting is Mnuchin’s boy - big sign if he is the FHFA guy...
Since it is a State Law matter, if there is any question about that State Law then it is pretty obvious you go to the experts -- especially given the government's outrageous claim that there is no precedent...
And the Delaware Court will know what the hell a rate is!
Wayne, those warrants are legal and they will convert. Ackman assumed that would be the case in his valuation of $23-45. The Moelis valuation of $10-12 is on the IPO, but it will go up from there...
What stops the warrants, since there are no live and viable court cases that are challenging them?
Yeah, may well be, I hope so...
lol
I do not think Bright will get it, since they cannot trust him to go along with Mnuchin...
Dude, I wasn't telling who I favor, but who people are suggesting the Trump folks will choose...
Bright has not even been nominated yet, so hold your horses... lol
The Trump administration combines many feuding groups, so one group is pushing Bright but what about the other groups? Calabria is in the mix, so too is Mulvaney. And others...
Ah crap, now you jinxed the sun coming up...
Shadow, I know, so sadly we know that Waters will not be investigating the imposition of the NWS cos it was by the Obama admin.
Rep. Hensaerling had that chance and showed his political agenda trumped his professed values by not investigating the NWS imposition even given all the docs from discovery in Sweeney court. Why did ol' Jeb forgoe that opportunity? hmm?
Sorry I wasn't clear. I expect any R&R to involve dilution -- of course it will.
The question is what amount of dilution and the ways it comes.
For example, to give just one example, exchanging JPS for common shares at the PRESENT price of the common would be clearly favoring the JPS -- because once an R&R is announced the new shares will sell for a lot more that $1.30 based on the financials...
So, dilution is not the issue, it is the details that matter...
KThomp, one senses an agenda when a poster claims he/she cannot see the obvious.
The Dems are on a schtick about "corruption" in the Trump administration. I am not endorsing that one way or the other, but that is their line. They will hold hearings on any, and all, situations where the administration might even appear to favor its financial backers - various Casino decisions, land use changes etc.
Paulson, a big JPS holder, backed Trump as a matter of record. & Moelis was constructed, and paid for, by JPS holders (Paulson) and, unsurprisingly, its features favor JPS holders in certain ways.
I expect a plan leading to R&R, but stacking the deck in any way in favor of JPS will lead Mnuchin to a world of pain... both in Congress and through new court cases. Mnuchin has no career in politics ahead of him -- does he really want his reputation sullied in that way?
You do not seem to be seeing the difference between having some R&R, and having a Moelis style R&R... I know Bradford says the fix is in for Moelis, but Bradford's record of prediction is worse than a broken clock - does not even get it right twice a day.
You may be paid to push Moelis, I am not paid to listen to, or engage with, you doing that pushing. So I am done on this, though we both agree a plan leading to some R&R is coming, but just disagree over what shape it has. best, Potty