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An observation: Huge news induced gaps rarely occur from extended, overbought levels. The vast majority of recent and past examples show that the BOOM! comes on the heels of a down-stroke in price – form oversold levels. Check these symbols out:
As to why this happens is a whole other discussion.
That tendency does not bode well for the hope that AMRN will suddenly explode (on news) while the pps is stalled at extended resistance levels. When compared to the weekly Biotech index (IBB) chart, the price action looks more technical than as if someone knows something:
Save your snide comments, this is just for your consideration.
It means, "tops are dirty, bottoms are clean" (markets don't rollover easy)
Bolio98, again, show me the money.
Bolio and RAF, total BS.. Here is what I posted Friday on SW (before the big move):
Guess what,.. I put my money to work based on that prediction and pocketed another $15,364.00:
Neither of you have made a nickle on AMRN (If you have, then show me the $). In fact you probably sitting on a scary big paper loss.
So your criticism of my posts are bogus and nothing more than sour grapes! I wasn't able to jack a grand slam w/ bases loaded, but I've hit many triples, doubles and singles. Meanwhile your batting avg. remains at 000.00.
Easy, cuz this, Did TA guide us to the derecho storm of Oct. '13 and the after effects?
has nothing to do with "3 weeks ago," that was in reference to OCTOBER 2013! You are so quick to bark before you even read.
By the way, 3 weeks can be a long time in the markets - for you and me. For you, it can be a painful lesson in patience while you sit on your eggs, worry and wonder. For me, it can be ample time for 5 or 6 trades worth 10's of thousands of dollars:)
Did TA guide us to the derecho storm of Oct. '13 and the after effects?
Yep sure did. You can find it here (plain as day): #76610
CaddieDad, Thanks for sharing that.
Why don't you put me on ignore if you don't value my input, 'over-the-top-lingo' man
VERY well said JL. Thank you.
please quote where I "predicted" anything? just covering all possibilities so if A + B = C, I don't get my head chopped off.
Bear trap, bull trap…
Markets are riddled with deceptive traps for both bears and bulls.
When confused as to what’s happening and why, it pays to follow the money. Who is Amarin management beholden to? Of course, it’s those who have loaned them millions to stuff their pockets with cash. They are the orchestraters of the recent price moves IMO.
Isn’t it curious how the SPA rules changed just prior to the first interim announcement (A)? Then out of nowhere they convert loans to equity (B) - loans that were hedged with shorts:
After announcing continuation (C), this chain of events was set in motion:
1. Converted shareholders used their shares to cover hedged short trades once the share price had drifted to profitable levels - down to triple support (D). The decision to continue is what induced the sell off to help these investors unwind their shorts.
2. Retail shorts got greedy and trapped, leading to a short squeeze (D-E) = Bear Trap.
3. This attractive price action pulled in more shares from perm-a-bulls as they marched to the beat of dreamed up fundamental reasons for this move.
What will happen next? Well, this is a painful possibility:
4. Once AMRN tops out, converted shareholders (Big Money) will dump their long shares, forcing a pps fall out (F) = Bull Trap. Retail bulls get burned by a triple top reversal and suffer another wave of pain (by holding this stock position) as they watch recent gains evaporate.
5. Losses magnify when retail investors finally figure out they’ve been duped, there is no news, and the stock market bears have begun to shoot down anything and everything in every sector that has been green the past 6 months. Miraculously, however, the investors (Big Money) - who Amarin management is beholden to – will have not only been spared the carnage, but have been the beneficiaries both on the short and long side of unwinding profitably.
6. Capitulation ensues (G) and these same prior converted shareholders begin to bottom fish near $2.00/share price, just in time for the 2nd Interim look. Once again a profitable setup for them to make huge profits (at retail investor’s expense) will have been dished up.
This is why I trade this stock…
dmlcento,
Raf and Caddiedad, So easy for you to just bet the farm on trial results then sit back and bash anyone who brings up an idea that could jeopardize that dream.
IMO, Friday's move has been way overblown. It was nothing more than a short covering technical bounce at support (perhaps juiced a bit by hype/speculation surrounding the 8K). The danger looming is if this rally off supports gets faded and prints a triple top reversal. Such a breakdown could take AMRN pps down to 2.00 or lower. If that were to play out, your simple response to double down, and pick up twice as many shares, magnifies your risk because you will have banked $0.00 to date. Meanwhile a trader will have grabbed another gain on such a reversal, then re-enter at a much lower cost basis, thereby significantly reducing the risk of holding through yet another binary event - the result of which could potentially send the stock reeling.
There are a lot of what ifs? surrounding this investment. What if Hillary (heaven forbid) becomes president and impacts drug regulation,favoring generics? What if we are at war with Russia? What if, what if, what if. You are quick to say TA can't forecast anything. Well neither can a fundamental promise. This drug might show efficacy and it might not. The company might be on good terms with the FDA and it might not. It is hard to predict all the pieces coming together (ask JL/HD). In the meantime, given such a bearish outcome, you actually will have sat on dead money.
A possible scenario:
This market is a high risk gig right now with many crosscurrents, uncertainties and bearish elements fundamentally and technically. as a result IMO, AMRN is a "trade" until they actually prove they're relevant to the street.
S&P500:
Michael - Though Friday’s price action produced a bullish engulfing bar, the degree of follow through will be important. I think it continues to climb, filling the $3.15 gap before taking a stab at a new high. If unsuccessful, however, a triple top could come into play. A high probability if nothing materializes to back up all the hype.
No need to chime in wiseguy, I was simply answering STS's question.
Since you did join the discussion, why don't you share results of your 'gut instinct' experiment?
It is very common for investors to unintentionally disregard one of the messages derived from fundamental or technical analysis. Quite often, in fact, the fundamentals can be strong and appear too good to be true (like during 2015), while the technical picture tells a different story. When guilty of using this tunnel vision, gut instinct investors are usually suffer a painful market lesson.
There are limits to price sell-offs and surges. Fear and mania, when unleashed, can move markets beyond fundamental and/or technical expectations, but sooner or later, price equilibrium returns. Often this strands a massive out-of-balance segment of those that rely only on gut instinct, who try to feed their greed with one more bite and end up starving. To each his own though.
sts66:
Whale, not sure what you are asking but it is clearer if I use Jan. 1, 2016 as the start date. the data only includes my AMRN trades completed. The Equity (left) is the amount gained per trade #.
The list of all "completed" AMRN trades:
Profit by month for Amrn trades:
(note the green histograms in the shape of a volcano ;))
There are a lot of bull headed, dogmatic individuals on this board that refuse to respect the merits of TA. Later..
Are you serious? LOL!
This is an equity curve of trades over a given time. Of course trade 0 is "0". By the way, what it doesn't show is the +17.5 gain on today's AMRN trade that I'm still holding.
Whale,
You haven't made 400 plus trades in AMRN since March have you ?
No of course not. ANRN trades:
how does one verify your positions anyway ...you don't seem to post on any other Ihub boards .
Why do you think posting on boards is a pre-requisite for trading stocks? LOL. Most on these boards know little to nothing about TA which is in fact a pre-requisite for making money in the markets.
Re TA ...I agree with JL's opinion on this "better a servant then a master ".
Agree. Most everyone this board, including JL have not followed that advice by being a slave to the fundamental promise of EPA, despite the bearish messages of TA the past 4 years. Very few ever master trading, because of their emotional attachment to the certainty of an outcome and their failure to adapt to changing conditions – illuminated by TA.
Everyone thinks there always have to be a fundamental reason for prices to move and ignore the impact of technical factors. For example, Albino said the price action all week was very unexpected. It's not unexpected at all. This is why AMRN performed like it did today:
A Classic double top had formed prior to the DMC announcement.
A. A Breakaway gap down in response
B. Prices plunge to first level of support (A-B). Shorts piled on in hopes of making a killing on the break below the troughline which usually calls for price drop of .75.
C. Fed decides against raising rates, VIX plummets - reinforcing support for all equities (including AMRN)
D. Prices continue to chew away the trough line, catching deceived shorts leaning the wrong way. Finally, a short squeeze ensues late in the session.
But hey,.. it doesn’t matter. I could have a verified crystal ball and it wouldn’t matter cause ‘hater’s gonna hate.’
isaeed, "This was never a high risk investment at these levels and will remain that way."
Future earnings will drive the share price. The challenge to ramping Rx's has always been to convince the medical community of Vascepa's efficacy. That has been a slow process. If R-It fails to stop at the 80% interim, Vascepa will begin to lose favor and the challenge to convince MD's will continue to grow.
" I have not seen one single day where the volume was high enough to indicate that much selling especially the day 1st interim continue announcement day."
Sorry, Wave volume says otherwise:
I don't contend that it will never be approved. I do however contend that this so called 'asymmetric investment' has changed to a very high risk holding. Once again, the fundamental argument is not coming to the rescue anytime soon and TA is confirming that fact.
The only way to prudently mitigate risk and make money investing in AMRN is to go long only when they prove results; after a 100%gap up. Apparently big pharma feels the same way.
here is the post: 12679
Isaeed borrowed the idea from my post: 92024. BB was the first to notice the changed wording by Amarin prior to the Adcom.
It is true, management was sneaky in how they tried to change the goal for more points, but the FDA shut them down and penalized them for their greed.
The worst thing going for AMRN? .. Gravity.
Without any catalysts and the price under the conversion ice line, the stock will continue to feel pressure until a capitulation event.
AMRN has failed miserably the past 2 weeks to participate in the biotech rally. Now, sadly, storms are intensifying – complements of a double top breakdown, broken up-trendline, and daily erosion of support.
Surely someone saw the results. Rest assured, if the data indicated the efficacy hoped for, the stock would not be suffering this technical breakdown. Consequently however, converted shareholders and shorts continue to fuel the selling, likely to continue until long term bulls give up. That may be before the second interim (not likely) or right after (if continuation results). Only then will it be a safe investment. Otherwise (IMO) it is best to stay on the sidelines and let it play out. If it gaps up 100%, then buy on a pullback with a heavy position - enabling capitalization on a double or triple of pps as shorts cover, funds accumulate, earnings ramp up, and big pharma comes shopping – all combining to push higher highs, lower lows.
The dislocation of AMRN with Biotech Index (IBB):
(I'm not long or short).
BC, BUT, my TA guided to cut an run, which is what I did - thankfully
I did. I had way too many shares. Harvested 75% of it today (nice gain). I sincerely hope this eventually comes through but I have too many places for the money while waiting 6+ mos.
Good luck with ARIA (HALO looks intriguing)
AMRN got greedy before the ANCHOR Adcom by making the claim that lowering trigs prevented CVD. The FDA deemed that claim too inconclusive and crushed the idea/indication.
Now, just before results were unveiled, they got greedy again and added 30 more endpoints in hopes of ‘raising the bar’ to extend the trial and allow more separation between the two arms. In the process, they missed a great opportunity to make a big splash, halt the trial, crush shorts, offer the company for a buyout, and get the drug into as many hands, as quickly as possible. Oh well, once again the investor is left holding the bag of dead money.
No matter how you sugar coat it, everything has changed, the dream is gone and sadly, the volcano has gone silent. For years we were led to believe that a small band of brains knew something the whole market did not, and that such a discovery was the very secret behind Jesse Livermore’s success as an investor.
So what might we expect over the next 8 months while awaiting the next interim?
How about political/world turmoil, surging volatility and a nasty bear market that takes no prisoners? If such conditions develop, how will AMRNs pps hold up? Will buyers continue to support a risky, small cap speculative company expecting an additional look to see if just 10% more events can suddenly boost all endpoints to become efficacious? What about all those new converted shareholders? What happens if their shares suddenly slip underwater? Would they sell these shares as part of their tax loss selling requirements?
IMO, all things considered, I think the recent announcement has severely increased the risk / reward ratio of this investment and has inhibited the likelihood of any run up for a repeat. Finally,.. it is time to move on. ARIA anyone?
GLTA,
FFS
I believe there WAS a data leak, based on the magnitude and timing of last week's rally. It is likely the data unlock occurred right before last week's DMC meeting. IMO, someone acted on that information. That is why we saw 3 high volume/momentum daily bars as the week progressed. This data may have suggested a magnitude of efficacy worthy of a halt, but after further discussion/evaluation (behind closed doors) of the secondary endpoints, a decision was made to continue the trial. This also explains why the stock was vigorously supported at the 50-day EMA (granted, all stocks - especially biotechs - had a wind at their backs today).
If this thesis is true, then BB's idea of an imminent buyout becomes more viable. FFS
BB - In my opinion nothing has changed. I expect positive results Monday or Tuesday.
The broad market had its worst day and worst week of 2016. AMRN should have been a juicy target for bears, but all we saw was a low volume pullback (bullish) that wasn't even strong enough to take out the previous bar's low:
IBB got taken out back and beat up (giving up all of it's weekly upward progress):
Certainly was an ugly day that took some of the air out of AMRNs balloon, but I still think this pattern resolves UP in a big way,... very soon. Too much condensed momentum to deny the probability.
I guess we'll see soon enough.
Have a good weekend and "keep hope alive"
I respectfully disagree. Broad market is getting spanked hard today and so is IBB, yet the IBB:AMRN comparison chart is shining for AMRN:
When the VIX pops up (like we’ve seen today), some fund models require profit taking (esp. on a Friday). AMRN happens to be the ripest fruit for the past few months. Despite the sag, there is no trend threatening volume:
Thanks sts66.
BB - Converted shares will hit note holder's accounts on Monday the 12th, correct (or is there a settlement period)? When is the earliest they can trade those shares? Do you think management would announce results before these converted shareholders are able to sell into the news?