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OT RUMOR BIN LADEN HAS BEEN CAPTURED, JERUSALEMPOST.COM AND BBC ARE REPORTING IT, if not true then it at least looks like he is trapped, if that is the case then he will most certainly commit suicide, i pray that we can catch him alive, what a humiliation that would be
gejim would like to hear your analysis on how to play the war in relation to idcc and world news, i know it might not be advisable, but if you were playing with monopoly money, what do u see the market doing, will it wait until victory is apparent like it did in wwII, or will the market take off on the first actions, also there is a rumor out there that bin laden has been captured, that should bump the market as well, i hope he was captured alive, what a satisfaction for us and humiliation for him to have to stand trial
OT sophist please we don't need your pretentious lecture on history, let's see you are an expert, hmm, well tell me this do you think that the shiite majority in the south of Iraq will align themselves with Iran and cause a problem for any future government of Iraq, the longer we wait for your answer the more we know that you looked it up, since you are an expert on foreign policy, I would like to know how deep your knowledge goes into the subject
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OT sophist please we don't need your pretentious lecture on history, let's see you are an expert, hmm, well tell me this do you think that the shiite majority in the south of Iraq will align themselves with Iran and cause a problem for any future government of Iraq, the longer we wait for your answer the more we know that you looked it up, since you are an expert on foreign policy, I would like to know how deep your knowledge goes into the subject
boogie u make sense, i am not sure what to do at this point, i am considering going back in right after war starts and get back my original amount of core shares and if june options run out i might give up on options and stick to my long term plan of maintaining and adding to my core shares and wait 3 to 5 years until idcc hits 1000, really not sure, good luck though
loop fair enough eom
if that does not make sense to you, then i understand everything please don't respond to me anymore, i don't have the time to explain my posts to you, most people understand
dndodd that is semantics he bought a stake in the company and when he did the whole tech sector got a huge bounce for the week, i love when people say i was wrong it was not shares when my overall point is still correct, can u people look deeper into what you are posting
ulurider check the post before u write, he said buffet doesn't even look at tech stocks, u think a guy like that does not even look at them, well not only does he look at them but he bought a significant stake in a couple, he also bought an energy company which name escapes me, and even if he is just talking about the general market, if the general market does bad that is going to hold down our gains from good news
jim you are wrong, he recently bought a huge amount of shares of a telecommunications company, over the summer i believe, when he speaks people and the market listen, his success has been too good to ignore, i think he bought a big chunk of L3 communications or level 3
jim that's not fair you can't accuse everyone who posts negative someone who lost on options
goblue i agree it has the most potential right now, but you can't deny that these market factors are going to lower our high of the run we go on when ericy gets resolved, so i just want this iraq situation to get over with, one way or the other
there is no way we are not going to war, saddamm could do everything right, the decision has already been made to go to war, and i agree with that decision, the bombs start flying by next friday, i hope that it ends quickly
the bottom line longs is that you can't ignore the market as a whole, there has been very little discussion on this board as to the general market's effect on a favorable ericy resolution, now of course if we get what we want we will be flying, but i want to be in a market that gives us the best possible price, now do i think that the year will turn around, yes, if we get a great victory in iraq, once victory is assured the market will get a nice bump, and after that initial high it will be up to the economy to give us a follow through
my point is that if idcc announced today favorable ericy resolution or in june, stock would fly a lot higher in june, picture idcc announcing it in 99, the stock would have went to 200, if they announce today we would be lucky to hit 50 in 2 weeks, i am just praying for a quick victory and for a bull market, good luck
Trio of bad news sinks stocks
GM, Disney lead Dow lower; Buffett cautious on equities
By Michael Baron, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 3:17 PM ET March 4, 2003
NEW YORK (CBS.MW) - The usual suspects of international unrest, war jitters and troubling economic data conspired with negative analyst comments on Dow components General Motors and Walt Disney to send U.S. equities lower Tuesday.
CBS MARKETWATCH TOP NEWS
Trio of terrorism, Buffett and data sink stocks
Quattrone, one-time star banker, resigns from CSFB
Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia shares hit on profit warning
Fed chief: Housing benefits waning, but no bubble
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By late afternoon, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU: news, chart, profile) had lost 117 points, or 1.5 percent, to 7,719, while the Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ: news, chart, profile) sank 12 points, or 0.9 percent, to 1,308. The S&P 500 index ($SPX: news, chart, profile) slipped 1.4 percent to 823. Watch latest market update.
A late-day halt in trading of shares of United Airlines (UAL: news, chart, profile) pending news as well as a warning from Dow component Caterpillar added fuel to a sell-off sparked by a terrorist bombing in the Philippines that killed at least 19, lingering uncertainty about Iraq, and a report that job-cuts expanded in February.
In addition, investment guru Warren Buffett chimed in with a proclamation that stock valuations still aren't enticing.
The blue-chip index also saw sharp weakness in two other components following a downgrade of number one carmaker General Motors to 'sell,' and an analyst note theorizing that Walt Disney Co. could warn about its second-quarter results.
Breadth was extremely negative with only Boeing out of the Dow's thirty components moving higher. The biggest drops were in Caterpillar (CAT: news, chart, profile), down more than 3 percent; General Motors (GM: news, chart, profile), over 5 percent; Walt Disney (DIS: news, chart, profile), losing more than.3 percent, and Home Depot (HD: news, chart, profile), sinking more than 4 percent.
Though not a blue chip, UAL also weighed the broader market after it said the IRS will permit the trustee for United Airlines' employee stock plan to sell 3.9 million more shares in a move that should protect a valuable tax credit. Shares of UAL tumbled 7 cents to 99 cents.
The DJIA scraped 7,750.81 at its low, a key level according to Bob Dickey, managing director and technical analyst at RBC Dain Rauscher. In a note to clients, Dickey said support for the blue chip barometer should be right around this level. The Dow has reversed direction from there on two occasions during the past few weeks.
Boeing's 1.5 percent advance came after the airplane manufacturer's stock plumbed a 52-week low of $26.91.
In the overall market, breadth was also negative with decliners outpacing advancers by a ratio of 20 to 11 on the Big Board, and 23 to 10 on the Nasdaq. Volume totaled 720 million shares on the New York Stock Exchange and 887 million shares on the Nasdaq.
Strategist blames weakness on technical factors
Steve Goldman, the chief market strategist at Weeden & Co., said that technical factors drove the action Tuesday. He added that he believes investors have already discounted a short war with Iraq, and that valuations are attractive.
When and if war breaks out, Goldman said he thinks stocks could rally following a pullback as part of an initial knee-jerk reaction.
"I don't know if it's so much the external news that's coming into the markets or the fact that we had close to a 6 percent rally at yesterday's highs, getting back to the higher end of the recent trading range," he said.
"We continue to be in this pattern of choppiness and getting to the upper end of the range with the backdrop of war, it would be pre-mature to take out a high at this point." Hear full interview
U.S. dollar slumps after Bank of Canada hikes rate
The dollar slumped 0.5 percent versus its Canadian counterpart to 1.4762, the lowest level seen since September 2000, after the Canada's central bank raised the target of its overnight interest rate by 0.25 percentage points. The buck slipped 0.2 percent against the euro to $1.0911. Meanwhile, the greenback rose 0.2 percent versus the Japanese yen at 117.74.
Gold futures got a lift from the weaker dollar. See full story. Crude oil futures pushed above $36 per barrel. See full story. Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields carved out fresh five-month lows. See full story.
Caterpillar's FY03 earnings outlook below consensus
The warning from component Caterpillar (CAT: news, chart, profile) worsened an already weak showing for the Dow in midday trades.
The Peoria, Ill., industrial machinery firm indicated in its 2002 annual report that 2003 profits would fall short of expectations due to the global industry outlook, which has been hurt by geo-political uncertainty and a sluggish economy.
The maker of earth moving equipment said earnings should be 5 percent below its 2002 earnings of $2.30 a share, or approximately $2.19 a share. Analysts surveyed by Multex had been projecting profits of $2.26 a share, on average. Caterpillar expects revenue for the current year to approximate 2002's $20.15 billion, which is above analyst forecasts of $19.16 billion.
Soundview speculates on warning for Disney
Analyst Jordan Rohan at SoundView Technology sounded the alarm about Walt Disney (DIS: news, chart, profile), saying the media giant may have to warn of an earnings shortfall for its fiscal second quarter as terrorism fears, war jitters, weak consumer confidence and bad weather have negative impacted the company's entertainment parks division.
In a pre-market note to clients, Rohan said that he believes revenue for Disney's parks and resorts division will be down 5 percent from last year, and attendance will be down in the "high single-digit" percentage range.
He cut his fiscal second-quarter earnings estimate to 10 cents a share from 14 cents, but maintained his "neutral" rating and $17 price target. See full story.
Deutsche Bank says 'sell' GM, Ford
Weak sales figures for carmakers, which exacted a heavy toll on the Big Three on Monday, prompted a pre-market downgrade from Deutsche Bank.
Analyst Rod Lache lowered his assessment of Dow component General Motors (GM: news, chart, profile), Ford (F: news, chart, profile) and auto parts makers Delphi (DPH: news, chart, profile) and Visteon (VC: news, chart, profile) to "sell" from "hold," citing increased pessimism on the risk to profitability for the auto industry over the next few years.
Merrill also weighed in on the auto stocks, saying that Monday's sales figures "increase the likelihood of production cuts/slow downs in the near future." See full story.
Buffett stays on the sidelines
Speaking in his annual letter to Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A: news, chart, profile) shareholders, Warren Buffett, the oracle of Omaha, said that his company "continues to do little in equities."
Fortune.com published parts of the letter.
"Despite three years of falling prices, which have significantly improved the attractiveness of common stocks, we still find very few that even mildly interest us," he said. See full story.
Pentagon sends more troops to Gulf
The Pentagon Monday ordered 60,000 additional troops to the Persian Gulf, bringing its total deployment in the area to roughly 250,000. The move came even as Iraq worked to destroy missiles in order to placate the international community.
In a letter to mark the Islamic New Year, Iraqi President Saddam Hussein vowed that his country would defeat any invaders. Of the U.S., Hussein lobbed the accusation that America is trying to turn Arabs into slaves, according to the A.P.
Job-cuts accelerate in February, Challenger Gray
Announced job reductions rose roughly 5 percent to 138,177 in February, according to a monthly tally from outplacement firm Challenger Gray & Christmas.
The data showed that the government and non-profit sector eliminated 41,559 jobs, the most of any sector. See full story.
Merrill sees trouble for financials; says techs are looking rich
There was little cause for optimism in a U.S. strategy update from Merrill Lynch as the firm painted dreary pictures for the financials, telecom services, technology and consumer discretionary sectors.
Of the financials, Merrill said that consumer lending continues to grow despite deteriorating credit quality, rising defaults and a weak employment picture. "Our conservative stock market view does not bode well for the sector," the firm told clients.
Merrill believes that talk of long-distance pricing power may be very short-lived in telecom services, and that the technology sector still appears "grossly overvalued."
The firm also said that it doubts the business models of consumer discretionary companies are prepared for a decrease in consumer purchasing power that may emerge from rising energy prices and weak employment statistics.
Greenspan doubts bubble in housing market
Consumer spending isn't likely to benefit as much from home equity cash outs this year as last, as mortgage rates stabilize and home price increases slow, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said Tuesday.
The Fed chief also expressed doubt the home market would go the way of the stock market - a bubble waiting to pop.
"It is, of course, possible for home prices to fall as they did in a couple of quarters in 1990," he said. "But any analogy to stock market pricing behavior and bubbles is a rather large stretch." See full story.
Homebuilders crumble following Lennar's report
Shares of homebuilders slumped after Lennar (LEN: news, chart, profile) said late Monday that total first-quarter home orders rose a less-than-expected 8 percent to 6,712 units, hurt by a 14 percent decline in orders in its West region. Lennar's stock lost more than 6 percent.
A Banc of America analyst said he was looking for a 23 percent increase in orders from the company
Fellow homebuilders Centex (CTX: news, chart, profile), KB Home (KBH: news, chart, profile), D.R. Horton (DHI: news, chart, profile), and Pulte Homes (PHM: news, chart, profile) all moved lower.
BJ's, Martha Stewart set weak tone for retailers
The retail sector saw some selling as BJ'S Wholesale Club and Martha Stewart Omnimedia issued cautious comments.
BJ's (BJ: news, chart, profile) said it expects fiscal 2004 earnings to range from $1.25 to $1.35 a share, well below the average analyst estimate compiled by Multex of $1.72 a share. The stock plunged almost 19 percent.
The membership-based warehouse retailer said it would respond to a weak economy and increased competition by offering higher quality merchandise at even lower prices and by making investments in its business.
Shares of Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia (MSO: news, chart, profile) gave back more than 4 percent after the home products maker and media company warned that it would lose 6 to 8 cents a share in the first quarter, well below Wall Street's consensus estimate for a profit of 3 cents per share.
The company believes the ongoing uncertainty related to the investigations into insider trading by CEO Martha Stewart is expected to continue to impact its businesses.
The CBOE S&P Retail index ($RLX: news, chart, profile) dropped 1.4 percent to 249.79.
Michael Baron is a reporter for CBS.MarketWatch.com based in New York. News Editor Allen Wan contributed to this report.
More MARKET SNAPSHOT
•Weak factory data rules the day 4:15pm ET 03/03/03
•Stocks head into key month as Iraq looms large 2:53pm ET 03/02/03
•Stocks end the week down on geopolitical jitters 4:49pm ET 02/28/03
•Stocks rally as terror fears ease 5:15pm ET 02/27/03
•Dow in triple-digit slide; Nasdaq falls 1.9% 5:06pm ET 02/26/03
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goblue that question speaks a lot as to the overall knowledge of the stock market
Buffet picks junk bonds over stocks
By Bloomberg News, 3/4/2003
MAHA - Billionaire investor Warren Buffett said he's shunning stocks because they are too expensive and has turned to buying junk bonds.
''Despite three years of falling prices, which have significantly improved the attractiveness of common stocks, we still find very few that even mildly interest us,'' Buffett said in excerpts of his annual letter to shareholders published on Fortune.com. ''We continue to do very little in equities.''
Buffett, who has become the world's second-richest man buying stakes in companies such as Coca-Cola Co. on the cheap, is standing firm on his view that stocks are overvalued, even after three years of declines. That's spurred him to boost his junk bond and loan investments sixfold to $8.3 billion in 2002.
''He continues to thrive as a buyer of distressed assets,'' said James Armstrong, president of Henry H. Armstrong Associates, which owns about $36 million in shares of Buffett's investment company, Berkshire Hathaway Inc.
Buffett said he is buying junk bonds now because he can find ''sensible prices.'' The investments involve greater risks than stocks because they often are in companies overloaded with debt, he said.
While Buffett said he expects to have ''occasional large losses'' in his junk bonds, he has done ''reasonably well in this field'' so far.
Buffett was far more negative on stocks, saying that ''the insanity of valuations reaching during The Great Bubble'' has yet to end and has kept him and Berkshire vice chairman Charles Munger on the sidelines.
''Occasionally successful investing requires inactivity,'' he said.
Some investors said Buffett is wrong about the stock market.
''I would respectfully disagree with Mr. Buffett,'' said Robert Morris, chief of equity investment at Lord Abbett & Co., which manages $48 billion in Jersey City, N.J. ''The approximately 45 percent decline from the peak of the bubble pretty much erases it for us.''
With inflation as low as it is, returns for stocks look attractive, Morris said.
Berkshire Hathaway shares added $1,700 to $63,400 in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. They have declined 13 percent in the past year.
This story ran on page D2 of the Boston Globe on 3/4/2003.
© Copyright 2003 Globe Newspaper Company.
[ Send this story to a friend / Easy-print version / Search archives ]
mcshere and the rest of the news press release posters how did that get under your radar
Attention longs I am shocked nobody has a comment about Warren Buffet's pullout from stocks into junk bonds and his negative view on the market, i guess if he had given a positive report you all would be giddy with excitement, i think the investor has a responsibility to himself and his fellow investors to report the good and the bad, if somebody did comment on it i stand corrected although i surely thought there would be at least 10 posts
Apocalypse is nigh, Buffett tells Berkshire faithful
By Simon English in New York (Filed: 04/03/2003)
Warren Buffett is poised to issue his most doom-laden forecast for the state of the world economy yet, including a damning verdict on the derivatives industry he fears could cause a global financial crisis.
In the upcoming annual letter to shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway, Mr Buffett drops his usual folksy style to warn that banks do not understand the hidden risks lurking on their balance sheets.
He labels derivatives "time bombs, both for the parties that deal in them and the economic system" and "financial weapons of mass destruction, carrying dangers that, while now latent, are potentially lethal".
The views of the world's second richest man are closely watched and his apocalyptic vision will do little to steady nerves on Wall Street or in the City of London. Extracts from his annual letter, to be delivered on Saturday but posted on Fortune.com yesterday, reveal that he has little optimism for the stock market.
"Despite three years of falling prices which have significantly improved the attractiveness of common stocks, we still find very few that even mildly interest us. That dismal fact is testimony to the insanity of the valuations reached during the Great Bubble. Unfortunately, the hangover may prove to be proportional to the binge," he writes.
Until now vague warnings about the pyramid nature of derivatives contracts have led to bland assurance from banks that there is no threat to their stability.
Mr Buffett says the banks simply have no idea what their exposure could be. "When Charlie [Munger, his business partner] and I finish reading the long footnotes detailing the derivatives activities of major banks, the only thing we understand is that we don't understand how much risk the institution is taking."
Derivatives are often complex financial instruments that allow investors to take bets on anything from share prices to the weather. Their range is limited, says Mr Buffett, "only by the imagination of man, or sometimes, so it seems, madmen". Enron was especially fond of derivatives, offering contracts that would be settled years in the future and claiming profits immediately.
Berkshire Hathaway acquired a derivatives dealer when it bought reinsurer Gen Re. After failing to sell this business, Mr Buffett is now closing it down though he admits this will take years. "Reinsurance and derivatives businesses are similar. Like Hell, both are easy to enter and almost impossible to exit," he says.
Mr Buffett, dubbed the Sage of Omaha, believes that major insurers are exaggerating earnings from derivatives contracts and underplaying the "daisy chain risk" that comes when they lay off business with other firms.
His personal fortune fell last year by $5 billion to $30 billion, leaving him second to Bill Gates in the
teecee if u notice that has nothing to do with what i am responding to, u have not seen me complain about anything
that the website that i responded to in that post is referring to idcc, sounds like another fantasy of the longs here, the problem is the longs don't like when someone comes with a contrary view so they usually resort to name calling
very immature
microman, if you did call me that it would be a perfect illustration of the junior high responses a lot of you longs give me when faced with a contrary view, i love the fact that few of you can have a serious intelligent argument based on the issues of the company, instead when someone disagrees with you, they get called a moron, are u guys that immature
boogie that is typical, u take one post where i was wrong on timing and define me as a moron because i was wrong, i think when u make an assertion about someone's intelligence based on a price prediction the true intelligence of you becomes readily apparent
the problem with people who think like you is that you can't handle individual thought, your thoughts would be perfect in a facist state, u need people to tell you what to do, i make things happen and follow nobody
again if the stock is under 15 i buy back in and my loss is minimal, if the stock is over 15 i am covered fine, if the stock bumps up past march i have june options, if nothing happens by june i will buy september options, and still have same amount of core shares
i suggested a strategy that could pay off big and risk a small loss, if you did not like it fine, but it is not over yet, when world events send the market lower and idcc with it, we will see what you say then, again keep taking one post out of context, that is your specialty
the funny thing is the majority on this board have been wrong about just about everything the past 3 years, and i can produce 100 plus posts proving that, i laugh at your simple tactics
goblue, i expect that from you, very intelligent post, i guess when people speak their mind and not lockstep with the hypsters that is the only thing u can come up with, keep trying
frank nevada that would be perfect considering i have plenty of june options
boogie my prediction still stands, u have yet to see world events unfold, the market will only turn when it is evident that the war is close to over, so getting to 10 did not happen in two weeks, but i predict it will happen, our economy is sputtering right now, and either way if idcc goes up i am covered so i hope i am wrong, unlike many here when i am wrong i admit it
another crazy notion that will turn out to be false
i guess in any given day, month, or quarter could be either the good, or the bad, or the ugly, and when you portend to be a forecaster you will never be wrong as long as you always present the good, the bad, the ugly
i prefer to watch the movie
hacitra it is a blessing that you will not respond to me anymore, look you can sugarcoat the last press release all u want, the company can outline everything and the weak and ignorant will drink it up, but until they announce something concrete like, ericy resolution, nokia rate, new signing the stock will not move, how much has the stock moved since the press release
i expect that you will not respond because you are like most who can't have a dialogue with dissenting views
the fact that u think that analogy is good only exposes your defects even more
u are a legend in nobody's mind
keep drinking up those press releases and u will soon become drunk, remember it is easy to jump in with the collective group and be blinded by your leaders, i know my individual real viewpoint scares you, but mavericks and pioneers always scare the general public who needs to be spoon fed and led into the collective mass of sameness
good luck
hacitra I don't see the connection, please don't use unintelligent analogies that make no sense, secondly if you took a poll here you would see that most people agree with me on the point that IDCC has not met expectations in most if not all of their recent press releases in the past three years, I am hoping that the Ericy press release will be the first one to break that streak
the bottom line is IDCC has failed to exceed or meet our expectations in virtually every press release and we have no reason to believe it will be any different, until we get the ericy resolution that is close to what is deserved I will be expecting a disappointing news release every time
let's hope so eom
this thing is dropping and fast now 13.55
why will i not be surprised when there is no big press release today in relation to the 8k
ellismd why don't u enlighten us on the confusion of the 8k, explain it to us what it means, thank u
knowing the history of the longs reading the tea leaves, u can probably bank it that nothing will happen on monday
and can u give the reasons why in simplest terms
dd it is too late and i am too tired to think, can u please explain your speculation in the simplest terms possible, are u saying that the ericy case could be resolved on monday, please help
idcc dreamer, some of what you said is true so far, the key will be what will happen when ericy is resolved, then you will know if these dreamers were right or dead wrong