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Dennis, you want to talk politics? Then what if her first name was Michelle? Two
blasher, your wife thinks "she," not "he," protects us all (lol). I always say "he/she" and avoid arguments. Two
FYI...BAM Investor's proprietary model thinks the stock market will drop 50 percent during the next 2-5 months. Two
http://www.baminvestor.com/blog/2009/10/the-1929-stock-market-crash-vs-the-current-bam-model-prediction/
Saw a phantom spike down to 41.20 at 2:50 or thereabouts. Two
Ty Durden at ZeroHedge thinks program trading may take up into Thursday, but down after that(?). You may want to check out his chart. Two
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Deja Vu Markets: Low Volume Ramp To Thursday's VWAP
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/05/2009 12:56 -0500
Markets REAL Trading Volume VWAP
Yet another listless day with no volume participation, as trading turgidity has set in and programs are back in control. Expect the market to taper off somewhere around Thursday's closing VWAP (red line) unless some real volume shows up which as the past 6 months have shown, is practically always to the downside.
Gleno, I took long positions at Friday's close because the pattern looked identical to Sept. 2's close. But you're right, they often will use similar patterns to fool you. Two
LOL, Fox. Was it a blond wig? They also need to hire a new puppeteer. Someone who can keep Lies-man's lips moving in concert with his words. Two
Hey, Lindy, how can you speak so disparagingly of a man who just received the "Walking Eagle" award from American Indians (lol)? Two
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President BARACK OBAMA was invited to address a major gathering of the American Indian Nation two weeks ago in upstate New York . HE spoke for almost an hour on HIS future plans for increasing every Native American's present standard of living, since he has now become the President.. HE referred to his career as a Senator, how he had signed 'YES' for every Indian issue that came to his desk for approval.
Although President Obama was vague on the details of his plan, he seemed most enthusiastic about his future ideas for helping his 'red sisters and brothers'.
At the conclusion of his speech, the Tribes presented Obama with a plaque inscribed with his new Indian name - "Walking Eagle". The proud President then departed in his motorcade, waving to the crowds.
A news reporter later inquired to the group of chiefs of how they came to select the new name they had given to the President. They explained that "Walking Eagle" is the name given to a bird so full of shit it
can no longer fly.
I with you (long, that is) for Monday. That said, I'm not so sure the indexes will exceed the highs of 9/23. We may get close, but the rally could end on a failure to exceed those levels. Good trading...and a good weekend. Two
OT: The truth about unemployment, according to Denninger. Two
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But the Household Data is VASTLY worse than reported. Here are the month-over-month changes, and they're in the realm of frightening. (all numbers in thousands)
Civilian Labor Force: 154,879 to 153,617 this month.
Employed: 140,074 down to 139,079 this month.
That's a loss of 995,000 jobs, not 263,000, and the labor force contracted by 1,262,000 people!
The participation rate was absolutely decimated, down 0.6% this last month alone. The people "not in the labor force" rose by a staggering 1,516,000 in the last month.
The government doesn't count people as "unemployed" who have given up and exited the labor force, but as I have repeatedly noted whether the government counts them or not the corner store owner sure as hell does!
The fact of the matter is that nearly 1 million fewer people were working in September as compared to August; there has been absolutely no improvement in that trend whatsoever.
Foot, you spelled his name wrong. It's Lies-man. Two
Dan, don't you get the feeling today's big drop was a "bear trap"? All we need is a "good" jobs report tomorrow and up she goes. Two
Gleno, and to add a little more confusion to the game, McHugh thinks there might be one more sharp rally before the big decline. He might be right(?). Two
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What is more concerning, is the progress of the Rising Bearish Wedge pattern in the NASDAQ 100. The bottom boundary stopped the decline Wednesday, so now this pattern has five touch points on the upper boundary and four touch points on the bottom boundary. That is an impressive number of trend turns off these converging trend lines, and adds power to the pattern, more reliability. What is left for this pattern to complete is one more sharp rally leg, perhaps to the 1,800 level +/-. Then, a catastrophic decline should start, wave 3 down in the NDX, and wave (C ) down in the blue chip indices. The downside target of this pattern is its starting point, which in this case is 1,050, about 40 percent below Wednesday's close. Prices could fall even lower, below the starting point of this pattern. What is happening here is that buying is being met with stronger and stronger selling as prices edge higher. Once prices fall below the bottom boundary, a trend reversal is suggested. We are about to start the month of October, which has often seen major tops and the start of major plunges. Maybe again.
Incredible, blasher. Pretty damn close. Good one. Two
Gee, isn't it amazing and surprising (not) that the S&P and INDU delivered the same third-quarter results (14.98 percent)? From Ty Durden at ZH. Two
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Correlation algorithms were working overtime in Q3, when both the S&P and the DJIA returned exactly 14.98% each.
As a reminder, here are the 30 companies that make up the DJIA and here are the 500 companies that constitute the S&P.
We will leave the statistical analysis of the probability of identitical returns over a 3 month period for two completely different stock universes to the experts, suffice it to add that in Q3 fundamentals obviously played a major, decisive role in overall market movement.
Right now, the daily charts for the INDU and NDX suggest to me that we'll bottom and turn tomorrow. Gotta be ready for anything, right? Two
Looked good enough for me, Fox. Two
Yes, I'm usually a little early. Saw the Qs drop to 41.54 and that was only four cents under my entry price...so I'm not upset...yet(?). I'll sweat out a dime or a little more, but that's it. So far, so good. By the way, I run the INDU 5-min chart alongside the Q chart and the INDU bottomed at the same time. It's my long-standing theory that the INDU "calls the shots," as far as being manipulated, and is a pretty accurate gauge. We may not have hit bottom today; probably come later this afternoon. Two
And would the "beauty queen" execute all your trades right there on the beach (lol)? Two
You're really good, Gleno. I bought them around 41.58 (QLD at 49.42). Two
Looks like the Qs started their rebound around 10:20. Two
OT: It was! As a boy, I also saw live play by Stan Musial, Mickey Mantle, Yogi Berra, Whitey Ford, Preacher Roe, Roy Campanella, Willy Mays, Billy Martin and many other greats. But my dad, who took me to the games, saw Ruth, Gehrig, Cobb and many others who were considered the "real greats." Two
If I can throw in my two-cents worth (which is all it's worth), won't we know better if today's rally exceeds the closing highs of 9/22 (and/or the intraday highs of 9/23 right after the Fed meeting)? Two
LOL, capt! I can't stand her and the Dem leaders...but I also can't stand any of the Republicans. Is there really any difference? Give me Ron Paul any day. Or for that matter, how 'bout Denninger for President (lol)? Two
Babe Ruth hit more home runs than Ted Williams, but the latter was the better batter by far. (I actually saw Williams play in 1952...one of the highlights of my youth...lol.) You do great! Two
10:10 Eastern was when I saw the Qs go long. I still haven't seen a sell signal since then. But your strategy always makes sense...because you always bank profits. I wish I could say the same (lol). Good work. Two
What did you see? Looks like the Qs continue upward from 10:10? Two
He'll get some sort of healthcare legislation passed, even if it costs taxpayers a future fortune, and call it a "victory." Question for you: if Obama/Bernanke pulled off the rally from March 9, why would they allow the rally to end now? Sure, the market's fundamentals stink, but does it matter? Two
This being the EOQ, would it surprise anyone if prices ended green--or very close to green--by the close? Two
But...don't get carried away with the bear mentality. You've seen what's happened since March 9. Lots of gurus say we're going down hard. Perhaps? But Uncle Ben/Government Sachs can prop the indexes and switch directions whenever they want. Bad news--for that matter, any news--doesn't seem to matter one way or the other. JMHO. Two
Me, too! But then I remember Obama telling everyone on March 6 to "buy stocks." Wish I had listened...but I thought it was more double-talk. Makes me wonder what he "knew"? Two
blasher, a question: does your system short the Qs more than taking long positions? It seems that shorting provides quicker and more profitable opportunities. Whereas, going long takes longer, literally, to play out and may not be more profitable from a day-trading perspective. TIA. Two
LOL...sometimes I do both. Depends on my mood. By the way, the time for serious shorting may be coming very soon, according to McHugh. He emailed this warning last night. Two
"We have identified a highly reliable dangerous stock market price pattern in the NASDAQ 100 that warns a coming 40 percent plunge is possible."
Hey, Gleno. Actually, the low volume we've seen has played an essential role in keeping this rally going. Look at yesterday, for instance. The only index among all those I watch on a daily basis that indicated the true intentions of Da Boyz was the QQQQs. They turned the Qs up around 11:50 yesterday and kept them moving up ever so slightly on very low volume into the close. None of my charts for other indexes displayed the same turn; in fact, the only thing that suggested this morning's ramp job might happen was the fact that the CCI-144 on various five-minute charts was way down in minus territory (INDU was -164). So, you hold your nose and stake out a long position. The bas-turds have played this game almost every day for six months. Two
McHugh never truly commits to a position until after it happens, which protects him from lawsuits, I'm sure (lol). You, on the other hand, have the courage to take a position and stand by it, which is admirable. Your idea of taking straddles whenever the market approaches a major top/bottom is smart. Thanks. Two
Unbelievable, Foot! In the end, government programs cost too much money and only provide poor results. When will we learn? Two
Hey, Foot. Here are some interesting facts re. mortgates provided by Denninger that you can spring on your realtor friends. Two
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There are roughly 125 million single-family homes in the US.
Of those, roughly 30% have no mortgage on them at all. This leaves 87.5 million single-family homes with mortgages.
Let us assume the average outstanding balance is $200,000 across the entire set and will take a 40% loss severity. This is less than S&P has estimated for subprime loans and only assumes a roughly 20% market deficiency in the home price (the rest is from legal, rehabilitation and marketing expenses.)
These numbers are, with a high degree of confidence (90%+) low - that is, losses will exceed these estimates, perhaps dramatically so. It is, for example, quite reasonable to believe that due to the concentration of defaults in higher-priced areas (e.g. California and Florida) that the average outstanding balance could be close to double that $200,000 value and the loss due to negative equity higher.
From this we can develop a "cocktail napkin" view of the losses to be taken in home mortgages for single-family homes (remember, this does not include condos, apartment buildings and similar "commercial" paper.)
$200,000 X 40% = $80,000 loss per foreclosure.
87.5 million homes with mortgages X 12.42% = 10,867,500 foreclosures.
10,867,500
x 80,000
=============
$869,400,000,000
or $869 billion in losses remaining in single-family mortgages alone.
What if the average outstanding is higher and negative equity greater than 20% (which is likely)? Losses will almost certainly be well north of a trillion dollars.
The entire banking system and likely The Fed, given the quantity of Fannie and Freddie paper it has been and is "eating", is insolvent. These facts are why the government is lying - they're well-aware of the near-zero cure rates and know that these facts mean that the banking industry has nowhere near sufficient capital to withstand these losses without folding like a paper cup getting stomped on by an elephant.
(Remember that these numbers do not include any commercial real estate losses and we have found that banks are frequently over-stating their claimed values for these loans by 50% or more - as was seen with Colonial.)
It gets better. The FDIC has a negative balance both in its fund balance and the reserve ratio projected for the end of the quarter, which is, big surprise, tomorrow. Oh, and there is this pesky problem that the FDIC has - contrary to its mandate - been issuing bond guarantees for banks, so if and when that banking insolvency is recognized the FDIC will implode into a gravity well also, since it is on the hook for the entire deficiency of those bonds that were issued with its "guarantee" should they default
Hey, POKERSAM. No one responded on another site to this McHugh analysis? Perhaps it leaves too many unanswered questions? That said, I'm always interested in your interpretation. TIA. Two
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"Prices have been rising on declining volume for several months now, and Monday's rise on declining volume is likely an early warning that a top of significance is approaching. The big question Monday night is, has the final wave of this rally from March, wave (E) up of C-up of (B) up started Monday? If so, it means (D) down bottomed precisely on our latest scheduled phi mate turn date, Friday, September 25th. Except for volume, Monday was a strong up day, so there is a good chance (E) up has started. Here is the problem: There is no way to know if (E) up will take prices to the upside targets that various patterns suggest, or whether it will truncate. We are now in a high risk zone for long positions. Wave (C ) down c an start at any time, or delay for several weeks while (B) up finishes.
"The chart [for the Nasdaq] is bothersome. It shows that a textbook perfect Rising Bearish Wedge has formed, and is nearly complete in the NDX. These are termination patterns, and highly reliable. Minimum downside targets are the start of the pattern which in the case of the NDX would be 1,050, suggesting a 40 percent plunge is coming, and sooner than many believe.
"Weekly volume has dropped dramatically the higher prices have risen, suggesting a major top is approaching. The steep slope of the volume decline, the steep divergence, suggests prices will not reach new all-time highs before a major decline arrives."
Yes...and I think the buying started around 12:30, but it was muted and it looks like they're saving the big guns for today's close. Two
"SPY 106.30 has to hold?" Why? You don't get it, Fox. Da Boyz will take care of things in their own time/way (lol). Today's action explained by ZeroHedge below. Two
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Quarter End Markup Begins in Earnst
Submitted by RobotTrader on 09/28/2009 14:08 -0500
Very predictable to see the "DaBoyz" use the light volume session today to mark everything up for Quarter End, re-substantiate Bernanke, Geithner, LLP as the leader of the "G-String" (aka G20) oligarchy, and blow up some GridBot and Forex Megadroid players at the same time.
Anyone see the Forex action last night? Wild, unpredictable moves everywhere, like watching all the 300:1 leveraged FX gamers trying to hold on to a giant piece of vibrating sheet metal.
And the stock futures were weak with Asian trading, but "The Team" showed up at 5:00am with the obligatory Spoos Buying Spree, and as soon as the market opened, various financial stocks went vertical, like Hartford:
And the XLF, RKH, KRE, etc. were all jimmied up, since their survival is of critical importance to the survival of the quadrillion in derivatives bets being housed inside the JPM, BAC, and C towers.
And, of course, you had the normal and usual jam jobs in the junkers, like the mortgage insurers, as many are attempting to "make their year" in the last two days of trading.
And don't forget the bonds, which were also skied along with stocks, as another few billion of new debt to be floated will be coming up later this week.
Remember, the slightest hint of stock weakness, dollar strength, etc. will turn the wildebeest herd back into bonds to drive yields down even further to entice more people to buy a new "McBox" with a freshly printed 4.95% mortgage to be gobbled up on the Fed's balance sheet.
Its all part of the choreographed, seamlessly executed "Wash, Rinse, Repeat" cycle to grease the Perpetual Motion Machine...