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Bought WCOM @ 7.35
Took a chance here, bought a some shares for a chance to flip at 9 or so.
Purchased June 7.50 PUTS for hedge, just in case WCOM goes down the tubes because of the SEC stuff.
Will hold long term shares,until the story unfolds.
If the SEC damage is minimal, the stock will recover, and will sell PUTS for small loss.
Re: shooter~ Bernie also was questioned
KP,
Got a chance to go over the SEC filings a little bit more today.
Outside the outrageous loan Ebbers got from the company to pay for his failure as a investor, the crux of this investigation IMO..is centered around methods of booking revenues from accounts that were construed to be delinquent that might have been improperly charged against receivables, and possible over stating bookings from services that were cancelled,which is what TTWO did, but in a different way....perhaps re-stating revenues might be in order...just guessing here.
The write down of charges are a concern too, but feel that they were notified before on that.
The big one IMO,,is the stating of book value on a go forward basis once they account for new accounting regulations.
And the only reason i can see that being a major concern is: if WCOM has to write down their goodwill more then they have stated in the filings. If this were to be the case, it could put WCOM in trouble with debt covenants,as a further reduction is goodwill could draw against total equity of the company on the asset side of the balance sheet,and put WCOM in violation of debt covenants. Over stating book value IMO is a major concern....but that will all depend if that was done to avoid getting trouble with debt covenants.In which, if thats the case, WCOM could be toast, and all that is involved.
But the operative word would be, was it "Deliberate" .....again just speculating, as no one really knows what is going on except the insiders.
But its interesting to note that alot of this was already known by WCOM, and the SEC has been notifying them for awhile on this stuff, as stories of such are beginning to make their way around from various sources. Might explain why Ebbers and crew didnt seem really bent out of shape on this, and are more then willing to talk about it...and then posting of the SEC documents on the website as soon as it became a news item.
Guess we,ll have to wait till after March 20 for the response dead line the SEC set for them.
So the net result of all this is simple: They come out of this without any major violations, the stock recovers quickly.
If and they are guilty of major infractions, WCOM tanks, and then the markets will get more nutty then they already are,as investor confidence will be shaken even more after the Enron and GX fiasco.....and this we dont need!!
And after TTWO...i didnt expect to face this again so soon,LOL!
Oh well, thats life in the big city.
Took a chance, bought more WCOM at 7.35, and also purchased some June 7.50 Puts for a hedge.
BTS Market Wrap Up 03-12-02
NEW YORK (AP) - Spooked by weak sales predictions and accounting investigations in the telecommunications and technology sectors, investors collected profits Tuesday and left the stock market with a mixed close.
Tech stocks retreated but blue chips scratched out a small gain. Analysts said investors, after pushing tech prices higher last week, were shifting away from the volatile sector until earnings prospects improve or stocks become cheaper.
The Dow Jones industrial average closed up 21.11, or 0.2 percent, at 10,632.35, according to preliminary calculations. It was also the Dow's second straight day to close above 10,600 - a level last reached in July.
Broader stock indicators fell. The technology-focused Nasdaq composite index dropped 32.37, or 1.7 percent, to 1,897.12. The Standard & Poor's 500 index fell 2.68, or 0.2 percent, to 1,165.58.
Although Tuesday's selling coincided with disappointing news, many analysts had predicted a pullback. Stocks have been steadily moving higher all month, with the Nasdaq advancing 7 percent last week, leading to speculation that Wall Street was ready for some retrenchment.
``The market has been very strong of late and was due for a pause to refresh, regardless of whether there was good news or bad news,'' said Alfred E. Goldman, chief market strategist for A.G. Edwards & Sons Inc.
Stock prices also remain a concern. Although Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said last week that a recovery from the recession ``is already well under way,'' jittery investors still are worried that the recovery will be muted and profits lackluster. They fear that some stocks have risen too much given the uncertainty.
First-quarter earnings season, which begins next month, is expected to provide more indications about the future. But no one knows whether the reports will be strong enough to sustain the market's advance.
Wall Street punished stocks it feared wouldn't deliver big returns. Lucent slid 66 cents, or 10.5 percent, to $5.60, while Nokia lost $1.41, or 6 percent, to $22.09, after the telecommunications companies each reduced sales forecasts.
Microsoft tumbled $1.80 to $62.54 on a Goldman Sachs research note saying the bellwether's sales performance for the next fiscal year would be lower than many analysts predicted.
But IBM soared $3.26, or 3.1 percent, to $108.50 after a filing indicated that earnings from its core businesses were stronger than earlier statements indicated.
IBM is a Dow component and its gains helped push the index slightly higher. The Dow was also helped by Merck, which rose 75 cents to $63.49 as investors looked for alternatives to technology.
``The reason the market is struggling is because it's moved from being undervalued in February to overvalued now,'' said Hugh Johnson, chief investment officer at First Albany Corp. ``The focus of investors has shifted to earnings, and whether we are out of the earnings recession. I think it's too early to know.''
In the wake of Enron's collapse, investors were hypersensitive to any hint of accounting irregularities.
WorldCom and Qwest Communications International dropped significantly on reports that the Securities and Exchange Commission was looking into their bookkeeping. WorldCom lost $1.08, or 12 percent, to $7.93, while Qwest shed 51 cents, or 5.4 percent, to $8.95.
Declining shares narrowly led advancers on the New York Stock Exchange. Volume came to 1.30 billion shares compared with 1.20 billion Monday.
The Russell 2000 index fell 1.85 to 498.90.
Overseas, Japan's Nikkei stock average closed down 2.62 percent. Germany's DAX index slipped 1.2 percent, Britain's FT-SE 100 lost 0.1 percent, and France's CAC-40 fell 0.8 percent.
ERGO: You might be right.
Good point, could be some form of political posturing.IMO.
Stranger things have happened.
Thanx for your input.
Shooter
KP:
Good question on tomorrows action. I read the SEC documents, and there is a lot more then i anticipated. If i have to guess, lower.
Next question: Who,s next? Seems like we are going into a trend with the SEC beginning to examine companies financials statements more closely. Expect more to follow.
First time i have a seen a SEC probe demanding all records of former employee,s....and minutes from BOD meetings concerning goodwill, adjustments of accounts receivable, commissions and bonuses paid out to sales reps.ect ect.
Dont have clue on what i going here, i will have to wait and see what develops. Almost seems like a whistle blower situation, i know they canned some reps for booking illegal commissions, how that ties into the probe, is anyones guess.
Will purchase some PUT options in the morn to hedge against any big sell-off. And will hold until i get a better feel for what is going here. One thing not to do is, panic.
One thing to do is: make money off confusion and panic.
If it gets hit hard in the morning, will buy, and flip later on a rebound. If nothing comes out of this, will sell PUTS for a small lose, but will recover on share price.
If all hell breaks lose..got it covered on the PUTS.
Good Luck,
Shooter
Qwest Communications: SEC Probe
Qwest Receives Informal Inquiry From SEC
DENVER (Reuters) - Telecommunications services provider Qwest Communications International Inc. (Q.N) said on Monday securities regulators have asked for documents related to its accounting practices as part of an informal probe.
The informal inquiry by the Securities and Exchange Commission relates to three areas of Qwest's accounting of sales in 2000 and 2001 -- information that the company said has been previously disclosed.
Qwest said the SEC's inquiry was not an indication that regulators believe any laws have been violated, and said it will respond fully with the request, which it received in a letter on Friday.
The request, made by the SEC's Denver office, is the second the agency has made to the company in as many months. In February, it demanded documents from Denver-based Qwest about its purchase of assets from Global Crossing (GBLXQ.PK), now in bankruptcy protection, as part of the agency's investigation into that company.
Shares of Qwest, a local telephone carrier that serves much of the western United States, initially fell as much as 10 percent in early Monday trading on Nasdaq. Shares closed down 25 cents, or 2.57 percent, to $9.46.
Qwest said it believed the SEC inquiry could be about the statement of a material amount of net income or loss, or earnings or loss per share, on an actual or adjusted basis.
In this latest query, the SEC sought information about Qwest's accounting of sales of optical capacity, particularly to customers from which the company had also agreed to buy optical capacity.
Its revenues from sales of optical capacity in 2000 and 2001 were about 2.8 percent and 5.1 percent of total reported revenues, and these figures included sales to customers from which Qwest also bought capacity. The sales totaled 4.7 percent of all pro forma, or adjusted, revenues in 2000.
A second area is the sale of equipment to customers from which Qwest bought Internet services, or to which Qwest contributed equity financing.
Revenues from the sale of Internet equipment to customers from which Qwest bought Internet services were about 0.1 percent and 0.9 percent of total reported revenues in 2000 and 2001. It totaled 1.7 percent of overall pro forma revenues in 2000, Qwest said.
The third area is Qwest Dex, the company's telephone directory business. The revenues from changes in the production schedules and existence of Dex directories were about 0.2 percent of total reported revenues in each of 2000 and 2001, and 0.2 percent of total pro forma revenues in 2000.
The company said sales or conduct in those three areas were unlikely to have an impact on its financial statements for this year and beyond.
Qwest has said it does not expect to make any optical capacity asset sales this year because of market demand for optical capacity. Neither does it plan to sell any equipment this year in an exchange transaction or otherwise beyond routine sales of customer premises equipment that is done in the normal course of business.
Separately, Qwest said the $1.5 billion senior note offering announced March 7 by Qwest Corp., a wholly owned subsidiary, is expected to be completed on Tuesday, March 12.
16:35 03-11-02
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More WCOM:
Unlike Global Crossing, though, WorldCom has already recognized the severity of its problem. In the past year, the company has moved to clean up its balance sheet. WorldCom has slashed its payroll by some 9,000 workers and reduced capital spending by 30%. It has bought back all of its high-rate commercial paper and has $10 billion in credit available.
Its cash flow is now positive for the first time in years, and the company expects to generate $3 billion annually in cash by 2004, more than enough to cover the $4.5 billion in debt maturing in the next three years. ``These are challenging times, and we do not take them lightly,'' says Scott Sullivan, WorldCom's chief financial officer. ``But there are no triggers out there that would call for the repayment of debt.''
$20 BILLION WRITE-OFF. Still, some investors and industry observers worry that an economy that's still quite sluggish will sap WorldCom's ability to meet interest payments. No one is saying this is about to happen. But credit-rating agencies are concerned enough to have revised WorldCom's investment-grade debt ratings somewhat. Standard & Poor's recently lowered WorldCom's debt to negative from stable, though S&P kept WorldCom's investment grade of BBB+. Says S&P telecom analyst Rosemarie Kalinowski: ``The company needs to reduce its debt and improve cash flow.''
Another concern: Sometime this year, WorldCom will write off up to $20 billion in goodwill covering MCI Corp. and some of the other 60 companies it bought during the 1990s. However, big as it is, such a write-off is far from life-threatening. Indeed, it would take a charge of $50 billion or more to push WorldCom's debt-to-capital ratio to a level that would violate its loan agreements.
Still, massive write-offs are a comeuppance for a company that many analysts have long associated with aggressive accounting. During the boom years, WorldCom liberally booked expenses as capital investments that could be amortized, a strategy that made earnings appear to be larger than they really were. In 2000, WorldCom capitalized $925 million in costs associated with developing in-house software, according to a footnote in its annual report.
ENVELOPE PUSHING. WorldCom also capitalized, rather than booked as an expense, the cost of building some of its own transmission systems, such as interest and salaries of employees involved in the construction, notes a consultant who has worked with the company. Indeed, it capitalized $842 million in such expenses in 2000, according to its financial reports. ``WorldCom always pushed the envelope'' in its accounting practices,`` says the consultant, who asked to remain anonymous. WorldCom doesn't dispute the description of its accounting and says it stands by its methods as being appropriate.
Yet in the post-Enron era, analysts and investors alike will be scrutinizing every report for signs of inappropriate accounting. And given its go-go past, the question now is whether the company has done enough and acted quickly enough to clean up its balance sheet. The consensus on Wall Street is that it has. ``WorldCom is still the fastest-growing telecom mega-cap company,'' says Blake Bath, a telecom analyst at Lehman Brothers. While it's hardly in the clear, WorldCom is no Global Crossing.
WCOM NEWS: SEC Inquiry:
WorldCom Receives SEC Inquiry
CLINTON, Miss., March 11 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- WorldCom, Inc. (Nasdaq: WCOM; MCIT) today said that it has received a confidential request from the Securities and Exchange Commission for voluntary production of documents and information. The request is available on the company's website at http://www.worldcom.com/investor.
The request addresses the following areas:
* WorldCom's 3Q00 pre-tax charge associated with wholesale accounts
(Requests 1-6)
* Disputed customer bills and sales commissions (requests 7, 18)
* WorldCom's accounting policies for goodwill and implementation of FAS
142 (Requests 8-17)
* WorldCom organizational charts and personnel records for former
employees (Requests 19-20)
* Loans by WorldCom to officers or directors (Request 21)
* Integration of WorldCom and MCI's computer systems (Request 22)
* WorldCom's tracking and review of analysts' earnings estimates
(Request 23)
* Federal or state agency investigations of WorldCom (Request 24)
WorldCom said that it believes all of its policies, practices, and procedures have complied, and continue to comply, with all applicable accounting standards and laws. Additionally, the company said that it intends to cooperate with the Commission's inquiry and that it will respond to the Commission's request as promptly as possible. The company said it is not aware of any information that would give rise to the Commission's inquiry.
ABOUT WORLDCOM, INC.
WorldCom, Inc. (Nasdaq: WCOM; MCIT), operating through WorldCom group and MCI group, is a pre-eminent global communications provider for the digital generation, operating in more than 65 countries with annualized revenues of $35 billion. With one of the most expansive, wholly-owned IP networks in the world, WorldCom provides innovative data and Internet services for businesses to communicate in today's market. For more information, go to http://www.worldcom.com .
BTS Market Wrap Up 03-11-02
NEW YORK (AP) - Wall Street meandered and ultimately stalled Monday, held back by profit-taking from last week's big rally and the absence of any good news to inspire buying.
The market's only gains came tentatively and late in the session, but analysts were encouraged. They said investors, while still cautious, have become confident enough to hold their positions, rather than cash them out for fear the market's advance will falter.
The subdued session also marked the six-month anniversary of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks.
The Dow Jones industrial average closed up 38.75, or 0.4 percent, at 10,611.24 on Monday, after spending much of the day at a loss.
Broader market indicators were also weak. The Standard & Poor's 500 index advanced 3.95, or 0.3 percent, at 1,168.26, while the Nasdaq composite index slipped 0.18, virtually unchanged, to 1,929.49.
``This is good. I'd feel very uncomfortable if we were seeing 1.5 percent or 2 percent up days every day because that would mean we're getting euphoric again,' said Rafael Tamargo, director of equity research at Wilmington Trust. ``Grinding it out like this is kind of what we need to see. It shows that investors still have questions and are acting carefully.'
Stocks enjoyed a big rally last week - including a 7 percent surge on the Nasdaq and a 2 percent gain on the Dow - after Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said recovery from the recession ``is already well under way' and several economic reports supported his assessment.
However, the market's recent strength has made some investors uneasy. After two years of unsustainable rallies and tumbling stock prices, there are concerns that some issues have become too expensive given the modest projections for the future. Buyers want to hear more companies report improving results before committing too much to stocks.
First-quarter earnings reports due out next month could provide some of those answers. Wall Street also wants companies to say their business is improving and that results due out later this year will be better.
``The mood is improving. But people have found you after to be prudent,' said Jack Francis, managing director at UBS Warburg. ``They don't want stock prices to go too high until they're sure that there's something underneath to support them.'
Wall Street also paused to remember the September assault on the World Trade Center that shuttered Wall Street for nearly a week and prompted a massive selloff. The Dow has climbed 28.9 percent from its post-attack lows, the Nasdaq is up 35.6 percent and the S&P has advanced nearly 21.0 percent.
In trading Monday, investors once again bought financial stocks - one of the sectors that has gotten the biggest boost in recent days on hopes it will benefit from an improving economy. J.P. Morgan rose $1.56 to $36.30.
Earnings were also in focus. Retailer Williams-Sonoma dropped $2.64 to $46.40 after the upscale home furnishings company missed its fourth-quarter earnings target and said first-quarter earnings would not be as strong as analysts expected.
Tech stocks were mixed. Qwest Communications International fell 25 cents to $9.46 after the company said the Securities and Exchange Commission had opened an informal inquiry into its accounting practices.
Meanwhile, Ciena climbed $1.02, or 11 percent, to $10.29.
Advancing issues narrowly led decliners on the New York Stock Exchange. Consolidated volume came to 1.516 billion shares, compared with 1.79 billion shares Friday.
The Russell 2000 index advanced 0.90 to 500.75.
Overseas, Japan's Nikkei stock average closed up 0.3 percent. In Europe, Germany's DAX index fell 0.4 percent, Britain's FT-SE 100 lost 0.5 percent, and France's CAC-40 slipped 0.9 percent.
KP:
Thanx for the update on WCOM, we,ll see what happens with it, seems like old stuff to me. I,m cost averaging on this thing right now, thru a (DRIP). And will do so under 14.00.
Like said, this is a long term play for me...so unless it turns out to be another GX....we,ll see where she ends up in 12 months or so. At this point i,m not concerned.
The spell check,LOL... man, sometimes i,m so crunched fo time, i just post and hope its halfway readable,LOL.
I have used it though, nice feature for typing clod hoppers like myself LOL....when i have the time.
Good Luck,
Shooter
BTS stock challenge for March.
1st weeks results
5 and over
1.XICO +23.13%
2.BEAV +21.73%
3.DATK +16.41%
4.F +12.97%
5.FLSH + 9.91%
6.VSAT + 8.40%
7.T.CAE+ 6.93%
8.AOL - 1.01%
9.T.WSC- 2.61%
5 and under
1.RSTN +72.25%
2.AES +60.66%
3.INTD +35.75%
4.FA +21.74%
5.CMGI +15.65%
6.MCEL +8.47%
7.ERTH +6.47%
8.T.NHC +0.00
9.T.WRX -1.61%
OTC PENNYS
1.WWWN +75.00%
2.ARSN +36.67%
3.BUKS +14.29%
4.AMCM + 6.25%
5.T.ELD - 4.29%
6.TGO -14.29%
7.MAGZ -20.00%
KP...
LOL...sorry about that...i copied from Yahoo homepage, didnt even bother to look to see how it came put.
When i copied and pasted to the reply page for Ihub, it looked good..just like it looks on Yahoo...for some reason, it did not format right... i will re-do it by hand,,,, i should of took a quick gander.
Good Luck,
Shooter
KP:
Yes you were clear, as i have the same feature on Yahoo, as i recieve all BTS messages from Yahoo. So i do have quite a bit of e-mail i have to sort thru myself.
What Tim and i do quite frequently is post on both boards, with a message left on Yahoo being copied and pasted to Ihub and visa versa.
Whole concept of BTS was based on a private forum, for a private type of club atmosphere...but with Yahoo being messed up, i,m suprised Yahoo members have not posted over more.But it has been recommended.
It is mentioned over there more then once...so i quess we cant twist anyones arms,LOL...it must be preference i quess.
Like i said, we plan on builing our own BTS message board, and hopefully we will see more particapation in that forum.
Our main concern is building a club, that will benifit not only the experienced investor, but also the novice.
Note: What we are trying do is not only help each other, but also provide a trusting type of enviroment, that will help many newbies avoid the pitfalls many of us have experienced.
I wish there was a BTS forum, when i got into this biz. Perhaps i could of avoided some of the big mistakes that i made.
Thanx for the response.
Good Luck,
Shooter
Tim WCOM:
Still like it long term.
Like this for shareholders:
Following the acquisition of 15% or more of WorldCom's voting stock by a person or group without the approval of the Company's independent directors, the holders of the Rights (other than the acquiring person) will be entitled to purchase shares of WorldCom group stock or MCI group stock, as the case may be, at one-half the then current market price of such stock, and, in the event of a subsequent merger or other acquisition of the Company, to buy shares of common stock of the acquiring entity at one-half of the market price of those shares.
A majority of WorldCom's independent directors will be able to redeem the Rights at $0.01 per Right at any time until a person or group acquires 15% or more of the Company's voting stock. In addition, the terms of the Shareholder Rights Plan require a committee of the Company's independent directors to review the Plan at least once every three years to determine at that time whether to recommend to the Company's Board of Directors that it maintain, modify or terminate the Shareholder Rights Plan.
A letter outlining the Shareholder Rights Plan in more detail will be sent to the Company's shareholders following the record date.
The Bull Market Report:
Subj: THE BULL MARKET REPORT WEEKLY, MARCH 9, 2002
Date: 3/10/02 1:59:44 AM Eastern Standard Time
To view the plain text version of this newsletter, please click here.
March 9, 2002 Volume 52, #6W
Welcome to this week's issue of The Bull Market Report Weekly!
On the Internet, there is no Shortage of Information,
but Wisdom is a Valued Commodity.
MARKET INDICES FROM AROUND THE WORLD
FRIDAY, MARCH 8, 2002
INDEX CLOSE CHG DAY% WTD% MTD% YTD%
UNITED STATES MARKETS
DOW JONES 10572 47 0.5 2.0 5 5
THE S&P 500 1164 7 0.6 2.9 5 1
THE NASDAQ 1930 48 2.6 7.0 11 -1
THE NASDAQ 100 39 1 2.6 8.2 14 -1
THE S&P 400 99 1 0.8 4.0 7 6
TREASURY BONDS
10 YEAR 5.32, up 10 basis points +35bp +46bp +28bp
30 YEAR 5.72, up 7 basis points +22bp +31bp +24bp
EUROPEAN MARKETS
UK FT-SE 100 5286 4 0.1 2.3 4 1
FRANCE CAC 40 4629 13 0.3 3.2 4 0
GERMANY DAX 5360 70 1.3 5.1 6 4
ASIAN MARKETS
JAPAN NIKKEI 225 11886 237 2.0 9.9 12 13
HONG KONG HANG SENG 11233 45 0.4 7.7 7 -1
AMERICAS MARKETS
BRAZIL BOVESPA 13962 236 1.7 -2.7 -1 3
CANADA TSE 300 7910 -48 -0.6 2.6 4 3
MEXICO BOLSA 7192 131 1.9 4.3 7 13
(Please note that all prices are as of the close of trading on Friday, and all changes in price are from the previous Friday.)
COMMENTARY
MARKET OVERVIEW
The major indices extended their recent winning streak (which began last Friday) over the last five trading sessions. On the surface, this might not seem like such a big deal. However, when you consider the incredible force behind this mini-rally (the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq have gained an incredible 5%, 5% and 11%, respectively, since last Thursday’s close), you begin to see why many analysts and investors are in the best mood we’ve seen in quite a long time.
The markets have changed dramatically over the last few years (this is no longer the late-1990s bull craze, where 5% market jumps were seen as “just another day on Wall Street”), so don’t expect these types of astronomical gains to continue. However, we DO think that last Friday (March 1st) represented a key turning point for the U.S. markets, and that the rest of the year is shaping up to be much better than the last few months have been. A host of upbeat economic reports over the last week fully support our belief that the worst is now behind us.
The Dow moved 204 points higher on the week, or 2.0%, to close at 10,572.
The S&P 500 tacked on 33 points, or 2.9%, to end at 1164.
And in technology action, the Nasdaq Composite jumped 127 points, or 7.0%, to finish at 1930.
IN THE NEWS
News on the economic front continued to dominate the headlines. Among the most important reports was an announcement from the Institute of Supply Management (ISM), as its key gauge of non-manufacturing activity jumped to 58.7 from 49.6 last month. (Remember: Any figure above 50 indicates that our nation’s service sector is expanding.) Economists were looking for a more modest increase to 52.2, so the news was seen as a pleasant surprise on Wall Street. However, keep in mind that the ISM just started tracking service sector activity a few years ago. Without a long track record to go by, some analysts have had a bit of trouble deciphering exactly how bullish this week’s report really was. Our diagnosis? The service sector accounts for about 80-85% of our nation’s economic activity, so this week’s news was downright good! We’ll let the pundits and the talking heads on TV argue all they want over just HOW GOOD it really is. Meanwhile, we’d rather spend our time researching high-quality stocks that will benefit from this upturn in the service sector (however large or small it may turn out to be).
In manufacturing-related news, U.S. factory orders rose 1.6% in January, topping expectations for an increase of 1.5%. The figure marks a dramatic increase from December’s 0.7% growth reading, and points to better times ahead for the U.S. economy. Durable goods orders were particularly strong at +2.0% during the month.
And on the political front, Treasury Secretary Paul O’Neill said that he believes the U.S. economy did NOT enter a recession last year. Citing reports of positive GDP growth in every quarter except for 3Q01, O’Neill said, “It seems quite clear now that our economy never suffered a recession.” The most popular measure of an economic recession is TWO consecutive quarters of declining output.
In market action, financial issues were some of the biggest winners on the week as investors jumped back into the economically sensitive sector. As we ’ve mentioned before, lenders perform best when their customers can afford to repay their loans. If the economy bounces back, customer delinquency and default rates should trend lower from here. In addition, brokerage and other market-related financials will benefit if the major indices can show a sustained turnaround. On that note, some of the biggest winners on the week included the likes of E*Trade (ET, $10, up 2), Capital One (COF, $58, up 6) and Morgan Stanley (MWD, $57, up 6).
Elsewhere in the financial realm, Citigroup (C, $49, up 3) unveiled some definitive plans for its Travelers insurance unit. The firm is looking to raise as much as $4 billion in an IPO, as it plans to sell 210 million shares at $16-19 apiece. After the deal takes place later this month, Travelers, which remains one of the leading U.S. car, home and business insurers, will trade as a separate company under symbol TAPA. The spin-off should benefit Citigroup in the near-term by improving its capital structure. Meanwhile, it will also take some of the volatility out of Citigroup’s earnings in the years ahead.
In high-tech land, shares of data storage firms came under pressure this week after industry player McData (MCDT, $13, down 3) warned that it would fall short of Wall Street’s first-quarter earnings estimates. The firm blamed the shortfall on weak spending among its major customers. A number of brokerage giants used the news to lower their outlook for other major industry leaders, including EMC (EMC, $11, unch.). This year is going to be a tough one for EMC, but we still believe it is well positioned to reap huge rewards from this high-growth industry over the long haul.
And finally, a number of major insurance players benefited from a round of Wall Street upgrades this week. CS First Boston added AllState (ALL, $37, unch.) to its “focus list” of core recommendations, calling the #2 car and home insurer its “favorite large capitalization stock” at the moment. Meanwhile, shares of AFLAC (AFL, $28, up 2) moved nicely higher on the week following a Lehman Brothers upgrade on the supplemental insurance leader from “Buy” to “Strong Buy.” Over the past few months we’ve mentioned time and time again that the insurance industry is poised for a big turnaround on the heels of rising premiums and better risk management techniques. Apparently Wall Street analysts are finally starting to catch on here.
A LOOK AHEAD
The battle between bullish observers, who believe that the economic rebound will lead to improved corporate results later this year, and bearish observers, who believe that equity valuations have gotten a bit too rich and that corporate earnings will remain sluggish in the coming year, continues to rage on in full force.
As we’ve mentioned in past commentaries, there’s usually something to be said for BOTH sides of any healthy debate, and this one is no exception to that rule. On the one hand, we fully believe that the economy has turned the corner and that the U.S. equity markets will trend slowly higher throughout the rest of the year. On the other hand, valuations in certain sectors have gotten a bit rich in recent months, so we urge you not to take any undue risks with your portfolio at the moment. If you’re heavy in technology, you might want to shift some of your cash into value or income-oriented issues. By doing so, you won’t reap stellar gains if the bulls are right and the market goes gangbusters. On the other hand, you won’t lose your shirt if the bearish scenario plays out.
Our Value and Income Portfolios on our web site (www.BullMarket.com -- these particular portfolios are viewable only by PAID subscribers to The Bull Market Report Daily) would be an excellent place to begin your research. You also might want to look abroad for better growth opportunities. However, you should keep in mind that the U.S. has historically been the best and safest market in which to invest, and we don’t think that is going to change anytime soon. (See article #2 below for more on this story.)
Good investing next week!
Todd Shaver
Editor in Chief
The Bull Market Report
Washington, DC USA
Educating investors since 1997
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IN THIS ISSUE
1. CITIGROUP SETS TARGETS ON GROWTH IN GERMANY
2. TOP WALL STREET STRATEGISTS LOOK ABROAD FOR GROWTH
3. ORACLE WARNS ON 3Q EARNINGS
4. CONCORD EFS ADDS SIZE WITH ACQUISITION
5. AT&T BROADBAND IMPROVING AS IT HEADS INTO MERGER
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1. CITIGROUP SETS TARGETS ON GROWTH IN GERMANY
The appointment of a well-connected German businessman as chairman of Citigroup Germany is expected to usher in an era of new growth for Citigroup in that country. Analysts say the addition of Mark Wossner, a member of the supervisory board at DaimlerChrysler and chairman of the advisory board at Deutsche Bank -- Germany’s biggest bank -- is an important step in the right direction when it comes to Citigroup’s efforts in that country.
Germany is already the source of one-quarter of Citigroup’s revenues for all of Europe. Under Wossner, Citigroup is expected to make a push to expand its market share in investment and private banking, among other things.
TODD’S TAKE: Other than the Traveler’s spin-off, news has been pretty quiet on the Citigroup front lately. That isn’t necessarily a bad thing, but we’re glad the silence has been broken with news of expansion efforts in the German market. Citigroup is already performing very well in that market, but with the addition of Wossner, we believe it can do much better. And although this is somewhat of a mature market, a number of significant growth opportunities still exist. The company’s head of investment banking, for instance, expects the corporate bond market in Germany to grow to five times its current size over the next few years. Citigroup is the top foreign bond issuer in Germany and one of the top overall in that country, so this is great news.
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2. TOP WALL STREET STRATEGISTS LOOK ABROAD FOR GROWTH
Chief investment strategists at both Merrill Lynch (MER, $53, up 4) and Morgan Stanley are changing their global strategies in light of the recent run-up in U.S. equity markets, but their future paths differ greatly. Both firms are shifting their focus away from the U.S., mainly on valuation concerns but also because of worries over continued fallout from Enron and the possibility of a credit crunch. But while Merrill Lynch is shifting its focus to Japan and emerging economies that move on a cyclical basis, Morgan Stanley has set its sights on Europe.
TODD’S TAKE: Two things of note here. First, both firms are concerned about valuations in the U.S. equity markets. We’re a bit concerned as well, and we caution you to remember that good times haven’t started to roll just yet. Second, their different views of where the action is moving to proves once more that every investor has a different opinion.
To us, neither Japanese nor European equities look very enticing, for although they have potential, it has been way too long since they have backed it up with results. Frankly, a global economic recovery won’t solve Japan’s problems overnight. And as for Europe, despite the highest valuation spread between U.S. and European equities in 30 years, we go along with Merrill’s assessment: “It is hard to get excited about European equities”. The U.S. is a safe-haven market with incredible potential for investors. And while the overall markets may be overvalued based on certain metrics, plenty of outstanding individual stocks are NOT overvalued. Again, take a look at our Value Portfolio for some good ideas.
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Founder/CEO Jeff Steinberg explains the iDayo Indicator on TechTV. Jeff gives the audience a stock that skyrocketed while the NASDAQ and S&P 500 were down 32% and 16% respectively, in the following 12 months. Voted “Best of the Web” by Forbes the last two years. Online Investor Magazine says iDayo is among "The best of the best we've reviewed over time." See the TV CLIP and live Demo:
http://www.idayo.com/ad/bullmarket
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3. ORACLE WARNS ON 3Q EARNINGS
Software maker Oracle (ORCL, $14, unch.) warned that it would miss its fiscal third-quarter earnings estimates by a penny a share, coming in below results from a year earlier and the previous quarter. The #2 software company in the world said that it now expects profits of 9 cents a share, down from estimates it made in January of 10 cents a share. The company blamed weak sales in Asia for the shortfall.
TODD’S TAKE: Over the last few days we’ve seen stocks react strongly to favorable economic data. But as investors, we have to keep in mind that although a recovering economy is good overall, aggregate improvements do not mean that tough times are over for all individual companies. Oracle is a case in point. This company is still searching for bottom, and it might have just hit it.
The economy shows signs of improving, but many of Oracle’s customers still don’t have the money to spend on major software investments. They are either bargaining for a better price or shopping with competitors like Microsoft (MSFT, $64, up 3), IBM (IBM, $105, up 1) and SAP (SAP, $36, up 1). The economy will rebound and Oracle’s business will eventually pick up, but that doesn’t mean that we will be immediately returning to blockbuster 1999 sales levels. Oracle will continue to face stiff competition, cost-conscious customers and global economic ups and downs for many months to come.
Oracle will remain king of the database space, but it will face an ongoing fight as it looks to expand from here. With leading products and aggressive sales staff, Oracle is still a force to reckon with, but it is not the Wall Street darling that it once was.
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4. CONCORD EFS ADDS SIZE WITH ACQUISITION
Electronic payments provider Concord EFS (CEFT, $33, up 1) is acquiring Core Data Resources, a privately held provider of ATM processing. Core Data services about 35,000 ATMs. Concord is currently the nation’s largest ATM processor with about 58,000 ATMs.
Concord expects the acquisition, which should close in the latter half of the year, to be neutral to earnings per share in 2002 before adding to earnings per share in subsequent years.
TODD’S TAKE: Terms of this deal haven’t been released, but from our vantage this looks like a great buy for Concord. The deal will help Concord add substantial size in one of the fastest-growing areas of the electronic payments business -- ATM payment processing for retailers. This is great news. By adding a large number of new customers, the deal also sets the stage for excellent cross-selling opportunities for Concord’s other payment processing products.
In the longer-term, Concord can expect this acquisition to produce cost-saving synergies and some exciting new products and services. Overall, this is a solid move by Concord, a leader in what is still one of the most promising fields in the tech industry.
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5. AT&T BROADBAND IMPROVING AS IT HEADS INTO MERGER
AT&T Broadband is making vast improvements in its industry-lagging performance just as it heads into its merger with Comcast (CMCSK, $35, unch.). The #1 U.S. cable company, which Comcast is buying for $47 billion, reported that it would break even in the current quarter due to better-than-expected average revenue per user (ARPU) and lower-than-expected capital expenditures per customer. AT&T Broadband had previously expected to reach breakeven at the end of 2002.
TODD’S TAKE: AT&T Broadband was long seen as a takeover target because its poor numbers meant a buyer had a lot of opportunity to reap improvements out of its vast assets. Comcast won the bidding war for AT&T Broadband, but now it appears AT&T Broadband is doing much to put its house in order BEFORE the acquisition closes.
Just how well is AT&T Broadband doing? Well, at the end of 2001 the company hit ARPU and capital expenditure per customer targets that it had set for late 2004! Obviously there will still be room for improvement when Comcast takes over, but the gains AT&T Broadband has achieved will save Comcast time, money and a lot of headaches.
With AT&T Broadband expected to add about 2.2 million new customers this year (about even with 2001 additions) and efforts in place to bring its network upgrade to 70% completion by year’s end, Comcast’s acquisition is looking sweeter all the time. We like this deal, and we love the dominant powerhouse it is about to create.
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KP:BTS
Hi KP,
Just catching up on the posts here. Saw your comments about the IHUB board, and Yahoo BTS.
I have to agree with you on IHUB, good concept, as long they dont let the stock pimps got a strong hold on her.For i have noticed on this thread there has been a few pumps with no DD....problem with a public board i quess.
I remember posting back on SI, heck maybe 4 years ago,maybe more. That was a good concept at first too, but all went to the wayside after the scum got control. RB wasnt bad at first either....until the stock pimps and such got control of that one too. Seems once they notice a new thread,and see activity slowing down on the thread their using, they will find some where else to post their garbage.
Which i why we created BTS on Yahoo...to get away from that type of nonsense! But Yahoo has been a pain at times, and many didnt like the way it was structured.But on the other hand, they did and still do offer some real nice options and functions.
We have had discussions about how to make Yahoo BTS better right from on first day. And we also understand that some do not like Yahoo for their own personal reasons. Which was one of the reasons Tim created the IHUB board, plus for those who like posting on the North board. So more or less, IHUB BTS is a extension of BTS Yahoo and the North board.
I know you dont post much over on the Yahoo board, but i wish you and others would,LOL. But, can understand why you dont.
Yahoo really pulled a fast one on us, with its new Yahoo Group format....which really sucks! But we are making the best of it, and trying to make it interesting for all those who elect to particapate.
Your IMO, a very good BTS member, and provide some really valuable insights on the market, and on the stocks you are following, and fit right in with the crew over on Yahoo.
So it would be great to get you and Muell, Rouster.EZ, to post more often there....would only benifit the club IMO.
But as Tim said...some just dont like the Yahoo format...myself i prefer the private club thing.
So what we will be doing in the near future, if all goes according to plan...is build a BTS Message board,using our own domain.Chilo from Yahoo BTS has signed as the BTS/WBWS tech administrator,Chilo is very profecient in these matters,and will heading up the message board and website project.
So hopefully sometime in the near future we will have a BTS board that has the best of both worlds...what is good about Yahoo, and what is good about IHUB....so BTS will break away from Yahoo, with IHUB still being a alternate site.
Will work the same way as it does now, with a password enabled system for just BTS members, and with members coming aboard by invite only.
Just wanted to run this by you, just in case you might have any input to offer....we just want to make a board, where everyone will be happy with it, and will want to particapate,for the betterment of all.
Good Luck,
Shooter
BTS Stock Challenge Update:March
Here are updated standings for the 1st week of the March challenge......good job guys!!!
BTS STOCK CHALLENGE: MARCH (Updated Weekly)
5.00 and over 5.00 and under Pennys
1.XICO +23.13% 1.RSTN +72.25% 1.WWWN +75.00%
2.BEAV +21.73 2.AES +60.66 2.ARSN +36.67
3.DAKT +16.41 3.INTD +35.76 3.BUKS +14.29
4.F +12.97 4.FA +21.74 4.AMCM + 6.25
5.FLSH + 9.91 5.CMGI +15.65 5.T.ELD - 4.29
6.VSAT + 8.40 6.MCEL + 8.71 6.TSGO -14.29
7.T.CAE + 6.93 7.ERTH + 6.47 7.MAGZ -20.00
8.AOL - 1.01 8.T.NHC + 0.00
9.T.WSC - 2.61 9.T.WRX - 1.61
Rouster CPN:
Looking good my friend. I forgot what your entry point was; but if your hitting over 30%....are you going with trailing stops?
The TA still looks good, the ADX crosses liked i talked about in my previous post, highly bullish, now the Stoch/Rsi is now in overbought territory, now thats not bad at this point, just means alot of MO going on...what to look for: the Stoch/Rsi starts dipping below 80,your above right now, and if it starts heading toward 50....that might be the time to exit.
Also figure in too, if the ADX crosses over on the downside, the red line crosses over the green...and if trend line starts going the other way.That will tell you the run has fizzled!
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=cpn,uu[m,a]daclyyay[pb10!b20][vc60][iUl25!Lo50]&pref...
Might get some profit taking Monday!
Good Luck,
Shooter
KP:
Thanx for permission on the BTS wisdom thing, will use it.
Probably will use it also for the BTS Yahoo homepage.
Good Luck,
Shooter
BTS Market Wrap Up: 03-08-02
NEW YORK (AP) - A better-than-expected employment report sent stocks higher Friday, allowing Wall Street to extend a rally driven by a steady stream of positive economic news.
The buying was selective, though, with some of the momentum fading late in the day. Tech stocks rose sharply, while blue chips recorded more modest advances because of profit-taking. Analysts said investors were growing more confident that the recession had ended, but still want more proof that business is improving.
``We've had a very nice run. But now we're hesitating a little bit,' said Charles White, portfolio manager at Avatar Associates. ``This is the market's way of telling you that it needs more information, more certainty about the economy and earnings before it's going to break out much further.'
The Dow Jones industrial average closed up 47.12, or 0.5 percent, at 10,572.49, for a five-day gain of 203 points, or nearly 2.0 percent.
Broader indicators also rose, with the technology-focused Nasdaq composite index advancing 48.04, or 2.6 percent, to 1,929.67. The Standard & Poor's 500 index gained 6.77, or 0.6 percent, to 1,164.31.
For the week, the Nasdaq rose 126.93, or 7.0 percent, while the S&P advanced 32.53, or 2.9 percent.
The gains were the latest in a series of advances on upbeat economic news. Wall Street reacted positively to Labor Department report Friday showing the nation's unemployment rate slipped to 5.5 percent in February. Businesses also added 66,000 new jobs, breaking a string of losses that averaged 146,000 a month since the recession started in March 2001.
``For unemployment to be improving this quarter, earlier than expected, is very encouraging,' said Barry Hyman, chief investment strategist at Ehrenkrantz King Nussbaum. ``It gives us the continuing story that the economy has turned the corner.'
Technology shares rose after two bellwethers indicated their business has stabilized and noticing some improvements.
Intel rose $1.19 to $34.17 after forecasting first-quarter revenue between $6.6 billion and $6.9 billion, narrower than the range it estimated previously but still in line with expectations.
Investors also bid Sun Microsystems up $1.17 to $10, a 13.3 percent jump, after the computer hardware and software maker confirmed its outlook.
Blue chips were more mixed.
Financial stocks were higher, including American Express, which gained 96 cents to $40.47. Retailer Wal-Mart advanced 82 cents to $62.52.
But Schering-Plough fell $1.96, or 5.5 percent, to $34 after the company said it will sell its biggest selling prescription drug, Claritin, over the counter. The move will hurt profits.
General Motors, which has run up about 16 percent in the last two weeks, also retreated, falling 70 cents to $60.71.
Analysts said investors were shifting into technology after spending most of the last two weeks focused on blue chips. Although technology has advanced, its gains have been more modest than those of so-called old-economy stocks.
The blue chip focused Dow is up 5.5 percent for the year. By contrast, the Nasdaq is still down 1.1 percent, while the S&P, which also has a sizable tech component, is up a more modest 1.4 percent.
Although the market's tone has improved considerably in recent sessions, as investors start thinking about buying stocks again, there is still a lot of hesitance. With some stocks at their highest prices this year, many would-be buyers are nervous that the market might be advancing too quickly. They want to see more evidence that corporate profits are strengthening when first-quarter reports come out next month.
Advancing shares led decliners 5 to 4 on the New York Stock Exchange. Consolidated volume came to 1.79 billion shares, compared with 1.87 billion a day earlier.
The Russell 2000 index advanced 4.93 to 499.85.
Overseas, Japan's Nikkei stock average closed up 2.0 percent. In Europe, Germany's DAX index rose 1.3 percent, Britain's FT-SE 100 gained 0.1 percent, and France's CAC-40 advanced 0.3 percent.
BTS Market Wrap Up 03-07-02
NEW YORK (AP) - Wall Street played it safe Thursday, pausing for mild profit-taking even as more evidence of a recovering economy flowed in.
Analysts said investors, while increasingly optimistic that a turnaround is beginning, are not convinced the market's latest rally, which has included a string of triple-digit gains in the Dow Jones industrials, will last. Wall Street was also concerned that a positive assessment of the economy by Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan might signal higher interest rates.
The Dow closed down 48.92, or 0.5 percent, at 10,525.37, losing some ground from a 140-point gain Wednesday.
Broader stock indicators also dipped lower. The Standard & Poor's 500 index slipped 5.23, or 0.5 percent, to 1,157.54. The Nasdaq composite index finished down 8.77, also 0.5 percent, at 1,881.63.
``We're seeing some selling, but by and large this is just profit-taking,' said Richard A. Dickson, technical analyst at Hilliard Lyons. ``There doesn't seem to be any serious underlying problem in the market today. People are just thinking the last couple of days have been pretty good and maybe we should take our profits now, so that if stocks fall back, we won't lose out.'
Indeed, after an early uptick, blue chips turned lower as investors collected gains from the sizable advances that had pushed the Dow to its highest level since mid-July.
Financial and manufacturing stocks, which had enjoyed some of the biggest gains in recent sessions, struggled. American Express dropped 41 cents to $39.51, while 3M lost 44 cents to $121.13.
Conseco tumbled 16 cents to $3.59 after Merrill Lynch cut its rating on the insurer to ``reduce/sell,' a day after Conseco's financial officer stepped down and Moody's Investors Service questioned whether Conseco can generate enough cash to pay its debt.
And Boeing slid $1.38 to $48.48 after South African Airways decided to purchase 41 aircraft from rival Airbus.
But several retailers were higher, lifted by better-than-expected February sales. J.C. Penney advanced $2.08 at $21.27.
Tech stocks were also mixed. Gateway rose 33 cents to $5.63, while competitor Dell dropped 35 cents to $27.59.
Intel rose 2 cents to $32.98 ahead of a mid-quarter update expected late in the day. After the market closed, the chip maker tightened the range of its first-quarter sales forecast to between $6.6 billion and $6.9 billion, still in line with most analysts' estimates. The company said demand for PC processors remains stable but the communications chip business is weak. The stock fell 11 cents to $32.87 in after-hours trading.
Wall Street was both encouraged and unnerved by Greenspan's testimony before the U.S. Senate that a recovery is ``already well under way' - his most upbeat comments about the economy in a year. Although investors want to hear that conditions are improving, they don't like the prospect of higher interest rates; the Fed lowered rates 11 times in 2001 to stimulate growth, and there is concern that the central bank might view a health economy as reason to start raising them again.
``Greenspan was probably more bullish than people thought he would be. That led people to believe that in the short run at least, he might be more likely to raise interest rates,' said John Forelli, portfolio manager for Independence Investment LLC.
``It's our belief, though, that that won't happen before the fourth quarter, and is not something that will happen in the next month or anytime soon.'
Investors had little reaction to a Labor Department report showing new unemployment claims fell last week, continuing a steady decline.
Advancing and declining issues traded nearly evenly the New York Stock Exchange. Consolidated volume came to 1.87 billion shares, compared with 1.89 billion reported Wednesday.
The Russell 2000 index rose 0.12 to 494.92.
Overseas, Japan's Nikkei stock average jumped 2.6 percent. In Europe, Germany's DAX index gained 0.1 percent, Britain's FT-SE 100 rose 0.7 percent, and France's CAC-40 climbed 0.6 percent.
KP..more COST
Almost forgot,,notice the negative 10/20 MA?...in correlation to the ADX negative cross over? Classic sell signal....now to wait for the opposite to happen, and bingo!
Good Luck on this KP.
BTW: i enetered picks in the BTS stock challenge..nice day on your penny!!
Shooter
Rouster:
Congrads on CPN!! Very nice call!!
And have to agre with KP, you sitting on a stock at the right time. Both on the FA side and TA side.
You called it correct on the higher energy costs coming soon...the economy is begenning to inch forward out of its slump, which will mean higher manufacturing activity going foward, which will really benifit this company IMO.
Plus,,i see higher prices just because the consumer will be driving more, spending more, and a hot summer could happen this year. Which will further put pressure on energy prices.
All and all great analysis on your part...good job Rouster!
On the subject on when to sell...often that is the most difficult thing to do as a investor. With so many things to consider, it can make one dizzy with all the advise we can get from all the different sources. And often we might feel left out because we sold to early, when others claim their 70%-100%-200% gains.So the first thing we often do, is vary from our game plan...to catch up with the jones,s. And many times that can be a fatal mistake.
When to hold, when to sell. I think your 30% rule is very sound, dont remember if you impliment the trialing stop loss rule.But maybe consider using them with the risk of losing a small portion of your 30% gain...meaning, once you have hit your 30%...install the trialing stop...raise it as the stock rises. Maybe a 8% stop...so the worse you will do is 22%,,but on the upside, you have a chance to reep some amazing gains when one takes off for you.
But, remember,,your never wrong when you make money, and 30% 3 or 4 times year...after 10 years compounded adds up to some big money.
Or you can try this:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=cpn,uu[m,a]daclyyay[pb10!b20][vc60][iUl25!Lo50]&pref...
Notice How the RSI/Stoch is sitting above 80? thats in a over bougnt status..but, that doensnt mean its timne to sell.
Look at the ADX,,you will notice the black trend line. starting to fall..that means the current selling is losing steam,,, what i mean by current is the last 4 months or so.
Also look at the green and red line ADX lines...notice they are about to merge..when they do,,and the green is now above the red line...you have a bonified trend reversal in the works.... BUY.
And when that black trend line continues down..it doesnt mean the stock will go down...rather it means the further it drops, its saying, the trend is picking steam,,,i know seems confusing..but.all that black tells you is the strength of the trend. Now when you see the trend weakening, and the red ADX line crosses over the green on the downside, then that can be a sell signal. The current trend is over, and a new one is about to begin.Notice the negative cross over in NOV....see what happens to the stock after they merge on the down side?
Also notice the RSI/Stoch in late Nov...it has gone from a over bought status..and has dropped to 0.50,,,when it drops below that.and the ADX has changed..then the current run is over.SELL
Hope this pycho babble helps LOL!!
Good Luck on CPN...looks like 15 is the next stop.
Take Care,
Shooter
KP:
Good post on the pennys!!
BTW..do you mind if i borrow the follwing for the BTS newsletter? In our BTS Wisdom section?
"To accomplish great things we must not only act,
but also dream;
not only plan, but also believe."
So very true..great saying!!
Shooter
KP...COST
Hi KP,
As far as i,m concerned, COST produced a solid if not a banner quarter. The has had a good run up since Sept, and was getting a little pricey according to its earnings growth,IMO.So this sell off doesnt suprise me.Could be some sector rotation going on here too.Maybe a few weak hands to getting shook out also.
Good results in a reccession type of enviroment. Not to many companys can claim that. And the stock will be a good value soon,IMO..Good freaking company IMO.
Now on the valuations, i have come up with a fair price of 40-42 or higher based on valuations against COST,s peers, which seems undervalued at these prices. With a few analyists coming in around 45-49.But never the less, the stock i under selling pressure right now, and anyone thinking about buying it, might get a better price.
I also just saw a report on TV the other nite sayng that discount wholesalers will continue to do well going foward.
As club memberships continue to grow, and are forcasted to grow even more in the near term, as a shift in consumer buying from traditional retailing to discount wholesale is gaining strength. I have noticed this too in Mich, in both Costo and Sams Clubs. Just seems a lot more people going to these places.
I will be a buyer when the TA looks good. Below are a few charts...and where i will enter. This will be a good mid term hold when priced right.
http://www.askresearch.com/cgi-bin/chart?symbol=COST&country=USA&size=640x480&months=6+m...
Notice the Stochastics sitting on the bottom, this i like.
And then look at the money flow, you will see it just sitting on top of the 20 line, this is also very good. What i want it to do is dip below the 20 line...signifying most of the cash is now out of the stock. Also look at the MACD, you will notice its trending down.This indicator will be a trigger for a buy.
Now what i,m looking for on this chart to develop is:
That the money flow will dip below 20....then recover and go above 20. At this time the MACD will start to trend up.
Now when the money flow rises to 40, this means smart money is now comin back into the stock, and what i will be looking for is it to break 40, and when the MACD has a bullish crossover, which will happen within days of the Money Flow breaking 40,,,that will be the time to enter...you will have full reversal, that will be confirmed by the Stochastics moving above 30. if this condition does not happen i will stay away.
Also check this:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=cost,uu[m,a]daclyyay[pb10!b20][vc60][iUl25!Lo50]&pre...
Check out the ADX...that black line(just in case you don know all this stuff, and if you do,,i apologize for being redundant). Is the trend line...see it starting to trend up,,,that means that the CURRENT trend is getting stronger.
And look at the negative cross over with green and red trend lines...that cross over..is a sell indicator. With the black trend line heading south,,this meant the run was over,,and the run was weakining.The reason i brought this up, is the current selllng might continue...so its best to wait.
Now on to one of my better indicators..the RSI/Stoch
If you notice in Sept as well as the Moneyflow and MACD as mentioned above...you will see the correct TA entry.
Notice how the RSI/STOCH is in a oversold condition? When that moved up to 50 and crossed that...it matched all the buy indicators i mentioned above..plus the ADX had a bullish cross over...when this happens again , that is when this stock should be bought. And the RSI/Stoch is sitting on the bottom.
Hope i didnt bore you with this,,,you probably know it anyways...oh,well got some typing practice in LOL.
Good Luck,
Shooter
BTS Market Wrap Up: 03-06-02
NEW YORK (AP) - Energized by more encouraging economic news, Wall Street resumed its upward march Wednesday, carrying the Dow Jones industrials to their third triple-digit gain in the last four sessions.
Blue chips surged for much of the day, but the advance in tech stocks came late in the session as still-cautious investors finally decided the beleaguered sector deserved their attention.
``This has really been a blue chip rally, so the fact that tech stocks turned around really gave the market some support today,' said Bryan Piskorowski, market commentator at Prudential Securities. ``Slowly but surely the reams of positive economic data are bringing buyers back as the market's psychology turns from bearish to neutral.'
The Dow closed up 140.88, or 1.4 percent, at 10,574.29, rebounding almost completely from a 153-point loss the previous session. The average has advanced a total of 468 points since Friday.
Broader stock indicators also moved higher. The technology-focused Nasdaq composite index rose 24.11, or 1.3 percent, to 1,890.40, overcoming losses from earlier in the session. The Standard & Poor's 500 index advanced 16.63, or 1.5 percent, to 1,162.77.
The blue chip rally started early in the session on a report from the Commerce Department that showed orders to U.S. factories rose by 1.6 percent in January, lifted by stronger demand for cars, computers and machinery. The news was the latest indication that the country is emerging from recession. Last week, the market got a handful of similarly upbeat reports.
Investors flocked to financial stocks, sending banker J.P. Morgan up $1.54 to $34.05, a 4.7-percent gain. Pharmaceutical and manufacturing stocks also advanced, with Merck rising $1.21 to $62.67 and 3M climbing $1.42 to $121.57. General Motors rose $1.31 to $59.92.
``These are also the companies whose business benefits the most when the economy revives and are more reasonably valued today than the technology companies,' said Charles G. Crane, strategist for Victory SBSF Capital Management.
Indeed, tech stocks meandered until late in the day, when a Federal Reserve released a survey of nationwide business activity suggesting that signs of a recovery became more widespread in January and early February.
Cisco Systems rose 26 cents to $16.77, while Intel gained 26 cents to $32.96, adding to Tuesday's run-up on speculation the chipmaker's profits would rise in an improving economy.
Telecommunications stocks also fared better, helped by Sprint's affirmation that its wireless and phone service units would meet their 2002 goals. Sprint's wireless PCS group advanced $1.92, or 20.1 percent, to $11.47, while the long-distance phone service FON group rose $1.27 to $15.83.
Analysts say Wall Street's mood is gradually improving, but, after two losing years on the market, investors are still somewhat dubious that a rally can last. Amid all the excitement about the market's recent gains, there are persistent fears that stock prices - particularly in the beleaguered tech sector - have become too high given what will likely be relatively mediocre profits this year.
``We're going to need to see some upwards earnings revisions by companies for the rally to continue. I'd expect things to settle down over the next few weeks until we see if earnings are going to be there,' said Robert Harrington, head of listed block trading at UBS Warburg. ``If they're not, stocks will probably come off a little.'
The sizable gains by blue chips could also make that sector subject to pullback. The Dow is up 5.5 percent from where it started 2002. By contrast, the Nasdaq is down 3.1 percent and the S&P has risen a more modest 1.3 percent.
Still, the market's increasingly bullish tone should help stocks hold steady and possibly rise modestly, as long as there aren't any surprises such as more terror attacks.
Advancing issues led decliners 11 to 4 on the New York Stock Exchange in busy, but not the most vigorous trading that the market has seen in recent sessions. Consolidated volume came to 1.88 billion shares, about the same number traded Tuesday.
The Russell 2000 index rose 7.21 to 494.80.
Overseas, Japan's Nikkei stock average advanced almost 1.0 percent. In Europe, Germany's DAX index rose 1.1 percent, Britain's FT-SE 100 climbed 0.6 percent, and France's CAC-40 gained nearly 0.2 percent.
CFLO NEWS:
CacheFlow Selected for Security and Internet Acceleration Solution by Owners of Russell 3000 Index
SUNNYVALE, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--March 6, 2002--
CacheFlow Appliance Reduces Management
Complexity and Improves Internet Performance
CacheFlow(R) Inc. (Nasdaq:CFLO), a leading provider of secure content networking solutions, today announced the selection and deployment of CacheFlow's 600 Series appliances at Frank Russell Company, a global investment services subsidiary of Northwestern Mutual. The deployment replaces an existing software-based solution with CacheFlow security and acceleration appliances that control Internet access, improve performance and simplify management for the company's Internet users.
"By providing security enforcement and performance improvement, proxy servers are an integral part of how Russell associates access the Internet. But our existing software-based solution wasn't keeping up with the change and growth of our connectivity requirements," said Toby Penn, Senior Network Security Engineer at Russell. "We chose CacheFlow because their solution allowed us to improve end-user performance and simplify the management of our Internet connectivity infrastructure."
The CacheFlow 600 Series Client Accelerator appliances are integrated hardware and software solutions that allow organizations to manage and control Web content, while accelerating the delivery of content to users. The products are also designed to provide comprehensive content-level security, powerful policy-based control capabilities, comprehensive management, and detailed reporting through software-only upgrades. By upgrading to CacheOS(TM) version 5.0, existing CacheFlow customers can evolve their client accelerator to the recently announced CacheFlow Security Gateway, enabling web security applications such as authorization management, content filtering, web usage monitoring, virus scanning, content security, and network bandwidth protection. These new solutions enable businesses to minimize security risks and reduce the management costs and complexity of Web infrastructure.
"Corporate Web usage continues to expand both in the amount of traffic and the number of applications and individuals using Web-based protocols. As a result, Internet access and intranet applications are critical to doing business today," said Charles Dauber, vice president of marketing at CacheFlow. "CacheFlow appliances allow network operators to integrate the protection, control and performance organizations require for making the web a part of their business critical systems."
About CacheFlow
CacheFlow develops and markets secure content networking appliances designed to protect, control and accelerate business communications. CacheFlow's family of optimized appliances and its innovative suite of content control technologies enable organizations to ensure web security and conduct e-business. Based in Sunnyvale, California, with offices and partners worldwide, CacheFlow can be contacted via telephone at 408.220.2200, fax at 408.220.2250 or email at info@cacheflow.com. More information on CacheFlow products and services can also be found at www.cacheflow.com.
About Frank Russell Company
Frank Russell Company provides manager-of-manager investment products and services in more than 35 countries. Russell manages $69 billion in assets and advises clients representing more than US$1 trillion worldwide. Founded in 1936, Russell is headquartered in Tacoma, Wash., with additional offices in New York, Toronto, London, Paris, Singapore, Sydney, Auckland and Tokyo.
BTS March Stock Challenge:
Last call for those who want to enter. Picks must be in before market open tomorrow.
We have three challenges going
5 and over
5 and under
OTC Pennys: stocks under a dollar.
You can post picks here on this thread, but must be BTS member.
Results are updated every week on the Yahoo BTS home page.
Good Luck To All
Shooter
Tim:BEAV
Dont know how far this one will run, a lot consolidation on the bands, can break out on the up side...but its overbought on the Williams, maybe 11.00, i dont expect this one to move fast.
Good company in a sector that is ice cold right now.Until the airlines start buying new planes, and that might be awhile.( they are having a hard time getting what they own right now filled, alot people afraid to fly still due to 911). I see no growth in this sector, unless its military related. Until people start flying again at a brisk pace.To many jets are sitting idle right now.
Note: when i flew to Florida,the plane was less then half full, a 747....and this is prime time.Will be curious to see how spring break goes with the college kids.
Airlines will struggle until people fill safe again IMO.....company said it will be profitable in the second half of year....but thats do to cost cutting, a good thing,but no mention of revenue growth. They will be hard pressed to grow top line, until then, i see no huge movement in the stock. Maybe a buck or 2,one way or another,IMO
FATS NEWS:
Firearms Training Systems, Inc. Announces Receipt of Order From the Peoples Republic of China
SUWANEE, Ga.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Feb. 28, 2002--Firearms Training Systems, Inc. (OTC: FATS) is pleased to announce receipt of an order from the Peoples Republic of China for the delivery of four Small Arms Training Systems intended for use in support of their law enforcement training.
This recent order is valued in excess of $300,000 and in addition to other contract awards from China during the current fiscal year, brings the combined value to over $600,000.
"These orders reflect FATS' growing international market and the ability to tailor the Company's products to meet a wide range of training requirements," stated Randy Sugarman, Chairman and acting CEO. "FATS' expanding market presence in both the US and overseas continues to affirm the Company's role as a leader in the simulation industry," he added.
FATS(R) is an ISO 9002 certified company and a leading worldwide producer of interactive simulation systems designed to provide training in the handling and use of small and supporting arms for law enforcement, military and commercial applications.
CONTACT:
Firearms Training Systems, Inc.
John Morelli, 770/622-3337
KEYWORD: GEORGIA
BTS CHAT REVIEW:
Tonites chat went well with our new chat room( special thanx to
Chilo, for putting this together)all went well, and was very nice to
chat without the hassles we have with Yahoo!!!
Tonites Chatters:
Cola
Eagle
Kool Juan
Shooter
Tonites topics centered around different approaches to TA, and stocks
that chatters were looking at or playing.
Stocks mentioned in tonites chat:
HML.TO
XICO
CMTO
SINA
NHC.TO
PLRP
DMEC
We will be having our weekly chat next thursday at 9:00PM EST.
If you have some free time on that nite...come join us.
KP:TTWO
I tell ya, alot of times this stuff doesnt make any sense at all. Thats the markets for ya. Another good reason why i believe the markets are not efficient.( another story for another time).
Hey, the thing can go to 30.00... and it wont change my mind, in fact after this episode, i might be looking to short my favorite stock from last year,,geez, unbelievable!
The thing is, the company has good products in a good sector, and will IMO grow their ESP and top line,but with shabby book keeping...sometimes there is no explanation, and i learned a long time ago,,it dont pay to waste your time trying to figure it out, cause sometimes you cant!
At some time they will get the books right , and when they do, if the price is right and they exhibit the growth i like , i might re-enter..till then its a avoid in my book.
Tim,
Heres that link for CSCO
http://www.askresearch.com/cgi-bin/chart?symbol=csco&country=USA&size=640x480&months=6+m...
ERTH: TIM,EZ,KP:
Thanx guys for all the DD, and opinions, very much appreciated.
Did some research on it, had a few questions answered, and of course ended up with more questions,LOL.
The CC was very informative, and will have to listed again and take a few notes.
Interesting little company you guys have here.
What are your guys targets, i believe i seen Tim say the low 2,s?
You guys playing just short term? or are you going mid or long term?
If i was to enter, it would have to be for a mid term play at these prices, dont know how much legs she has left before she pulls back.
Looks like major resistance around 2 or so. Not sure if i want to risk a play short term play at this level or not.
2.25 could be a major pivot point IMO.
Good Luck,
Shooter
WCOM: View from the talking heads:
Left for dead
Worldcom (WCOM) dials up trouble 2002-02-21
Do zany trades, questionable accounting practices, and heavy debt lead to an inexorable conclusion?
by Dave Sterman, equity research columnist
The telecom sector has been awash with bankruptcy filings over the last year. But when multi-billion dollar player Global Crossing (GX) sought protection from creditors, investors realized that no one is safe. And they turned their fearful sights on Worldcom (WCOM), speculating that this telecom titan too could also be in deep trouble. The kind of trouble that eventually makes a stock worthless.
Could Worldcom really go belly up? No way, say analysts. And many are saying that the stock is now quite cheap, after falling through the $10 barrier in late January on its way to a recent $6.50—a seven year low.
Sequentially declining revenue growth for seven straight quarters is enough to spook investors. But it’s Worldcom’s $28 billion debt burden that has been the primary cause for concern. Adding further mayhem to the mix, company chairman Bernhard Ebbers embarked on an unconventional (to say the least) plan to buy tech stocks using Worldcom shares as collateral. Many of his shares are now being sold on the open market to pay back margin calls, further pressuring the stock. Finally, new accounting concerns—especially as related to overhead allotment issues with its MCI (MCIT) tracking stock—are also raising flags.
Companies mentioned in this article
Global Crossing (GX)
Worldcom (WCOM)
MCI (MCIT)
But after Worldcom released Q4 results, analysts breathed a collective sigh of relief. While the quarter was weak as expected, it was, "much better than the current stock price reflects," says U.S. Bancorp Piper Jaffray’s Cary Robinson, who rates the stock a "strong buy." He adds that, "we have NO liquidity concerns," noting that Worldcom still has access to an additional $8 billion on its credit line and carries, "an investment-grade balance sheet."
Lehman Bros.’ Blake Bath is similarly bullish, noting that Worldcom was able to generate very strong free cash flow in the quarter. And now that the shares trade for just 5 times his 2002 EBITDA estimate, he believes that, "the stock sell-off has been way overdone."
Reports for further inquiry
Quarter Light as Expected: Growth Slowing Due to Recession
4Q & ’02 Mod Slower; Str. FCF & Solid B/S
Detailed: 4Q01 Weaker Than Expected
Details on 4Q: Confirms Fears of Slowdown; Disputes Negative Speculation
Bath justifies his "strong buy" rating on the expectation that the stock could double to the $11-$13 range and eventually rise back to $20-22 over the long-term, "as the market gets past slower (projected) ’02 growth and realizes longer term growth in the 9% area."
CIBC’s Tim Horan also has a "strong buy" rating on the stock, but his language reflects a bit more caution. He expects the company’s business to stabilize this year, but, "if we are wrong, Worldcom, Inc. will need to be much more aggressive in reducing expenses and capex." If business doesn’t stabilize, Horan speculates that Worldcom may eventually become an acquisition candidate.
Horan’s strong rating on the stock also belies another concern: Worldcom has apparently been pushing a constant amount of SG&A expenses on to MCI’s income statement every quarter, even as MCI’s revenues continue to fall. That move has enabled Worldcom to post rising profit margins. But Horan figures, "there is substantial risk that (Worldcom’s) management will need to reallocate more costs to WCOM." That would further pressure Worldcom’s profit outlook.
Taking the bearish view, Jefferies & Co.’s Richard Klugman thinks Worldcom’s revenue base will continue to shrink. He thinks the recent sell-of is quite justified and says it’s hard to envision a sustained rally from these levels. "Compared to Worldcom, the RBOC shares appear more favorable in our opinion," he says.
It’s fair to note that bullish analysts failed to predict the recent sell-off, and may lack credibility at the moment. But a perfect storm of jittery investors, a slow economy, and ill-fated trades by the company’s chairman gave the stock a downward push, giving some the impression that shares of Worldcom have been prematurely left for dead.
E
Tim or KP: ERTH
Do you guys know if any projections have been made by the company in regards to when any revenue will be recognized from the McDonalds deal? I know in a PR it was stated they were using Earthshells containers in 450 stores. But the company has no revenues as of last Q. Is that agreement for Micky D,s to test market the containers? And at what point do you guys see some revenue traction going forward?
Was tempted to buy Friday, but didnt have time to check the filings on the equity financing deal. Got to check that out today some, seems like a fair financing package for the company, but i didnt go over it with a fine tooth and comb.
Dont see any major dilution from that unless the money boys are in for a quick buck, looks like they got their shares at a small discount to market value.
I think you guys might have a winner here, but the selling by Essam Khashoggi and his company EKI does raise some concern.
And his total control of ERTH, is something that might be considered, for if anything, this guy holds the keys to the kingdom from what i read...and could a be prick, and pull the rug out from ERTH.And give the rights to technology to someone else. Just seems after the last run up, there was a lot of dumping by the insiders, which could make it harder for ERTH,s stock price to break any major resistence points.
The TA stacks up pretty good, except for the short term Williams, which is now overbought, but the rest of the indicators are looking very good, with the stochastics just crossing over 30, a buy signal from oversold, as is the RSI, Rate of Price Change,looks like a nice bounce off the base of 1.25. possible breakout.
Depending on what you guys say, and if the stock retreats some, i might pick up a few shares.
If it continues up, i will pass, and hope you guys nail it.
KP:
On TTWO, the TA looks negative IMO. especially the indicators, with some, still not in oversold territory, despite the recent sell off. So if i was thinking about buying the stock, i would definitely would wait for a better price.
If the stock continues to rally, oh well, just move on to something else. Looks like there was some support in the 15 level. But the integrity issue IMO could prevent major new money coming into the stock. But then again, the market does have a short memory at times,LOL.
But i agree with ya, this could be a good play in the 9-10 area. To risky at these levels IMO.
On the spelling,LOL, well Tim is used to it... i think LOL. But more of a problem of typo,s especially after a nite like last nite, sometimes i spend way to much time on the PC, and after awhile my eyes get real tired. A lot of times i use spell check, but the old pup had a long day, and said hell with it LOL......now you should come to BTS chat, if you want to see some serious typo,s LOL.
Good Luck,
Shooter
Going to give this one a try, CFLO:
Price 1.08
Stop Loss: 0.92
Risk: Very High
Bought a few shares on a TA play, looks like it might be forming a new trading range. Plus i like the direction the company is going after restructuring, after lsitening to CC, the company feels if the economy continues to rebound, they will achieve postitive cash flow and become profitable within the next 4 to 6 Q,s.
TA indicators are showing oversold, but with upward movement. so it might be forming a short term base.
Stohastics are coming of a bottom around 20, 30 would signal a buy signal, but also take the chance of a whipsaw effect here.
The Macd has formed a short term bullisg crossover, very bullish, if it crosses the 0 line, the stock could have anice run up.
Positive cash is flowing into the stock right now, will see what happens when buyers in the 0.85 range take profit.
RSI is oversold but improving aslo.
CacheFlow develops and markets secure content networking appliances designed to protect, control and accelerate business communications. CacheFlow's family of optimized appliances and its innovative suite of content control technologies enable organizations to ensure web security and conduct e-business. Based in Sunnyvale, California, with offices and partners worldwide, CacheFlow can be contacted via telephone at 408/220-2200, fax at 408/220-2250 or email at info@cacheflow.com. More information on CacheFlow products and services can also be found at www.cacheflow.com.
52-Week Low
on 21-Sep-2001 $0.84
Recent Price $1.09
52-Week High
on 7-May-2001 $9.90
Beta 3.50
Daily Volume (3-month avg) 599.7K
Daily Volume (10-day avg) 510.0K
Stock Performance
big chart [1d / 5d / 3m / 6m / 1y / 2y / 5y]
52-Week Change -81.4%
52-Week Change
relative to S&P500 -78.8%
Share-Related Items
Market Capitalization $47.4M
Shares Outstanding 43.5M
Float 29.5M
Dividends & Splits
Annual Dividend none
Last Split none
Per-Share Data
Book Value (mrq*) $2.02
Earnings (ttm) -$13.78
Earnings (mrq) -$0.50
Sales (ttm) $1.62
Cash (mrq*) $1.42
Valuation Ratios
Price/Book (mrq*) 0.54
Price/Earnings N/A
Price/Sales (ttm) 0.67
Income Statements
Sales (ttm) $66.1M
EBITDA (ttm*) -$490.8M
Income available to common (ttm) -$552.8M
Profitability
Profit Margin N/A
Operating Margin N/A
Fiscal Year
Fiscal Year Ends Apr 30
Most recent quarter
(fully updated) 31-Oct-2001
Most recent quarter
(flash earnings) 31-Jan-2002
Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (ttm) -182.16%
Return on Equity (ttm) -200.05%
Financial Strength
Current Ratio (mrq*) 3.85
Debt/Equity (mrq*) 0
Total Cash (mrq) $29.0M
Short Interest
As of 8-Jan-2002
Shares Short 778.0K
Percent of Float 2.6%
Shares Short
(Prior Month) 971.0K
Short Ratio 1.46
Daily Volume 533.0K
RESISTANCE ABOVE +28.2% at 1.41 ± 0.17, type double, strength 5
+70% at 1.87 ± 0.22, type triple+, strength 10
+116% at 2.38 ± 0.28, type triple+, strength 10
+169% at 2.96 ± 0.35, type triple+, strength 10
Searched to 3.26 (+196%) over last 6 months.
SUPPORT BELOW -11.8% at 0.97 ± 0.11, type double, strength 7
Searched to 0 (-100%) over last 6 months.
Upside Trade Upside Trade Help, Trade indicators for long trades.
TARGET 1 Price: 1.87 Profit: 70%
Stop Limit/Trailing Stop Limit: 0.9 Loss: 18.2%
Profit/Loss Ratio: 3.85 : 1 - Excellent
TARGET 1 POTENTIAL Good, there are 1 resistance areas on the way to Target 1
TARGET 1 RESISTANCE +28.2% at 1.41 ± 0.17, type double, strength 5
+70% at 1.87 is Target 1
TARGET 2 Price: 2.38 Profit: 116% , for an extreme rally.
BREAKOUT None.
Downside Trade Downside Trade Help, Trade indicators for short trades.
TARGET 1 Price: 0.25 Profit: 77.3%
Cover Limit/Trailing Cover Limit: 1.35 Loss: 22.7%
Profit/Loss Ratio: 3.41 : 1 - Good
TARGET 1 POTENTIAL Good, there are 1 support areas on the way to Target 1
TARGET 1 SUPPORT -11.8% at 0.97 ± 0.11, type double, strength 7
-77.3% at 0.25 is Target 1
TARGET 2 Price: N/A Profit: N/A % , for an extreme pullback.
BREAKDOWN None.
Broker/Dealer Info:
http://iw.thomsonfn.com/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?t=CFLO&range=30&mgp=0&i=3&hdate=&am...
~~~~~~ COMPX 2/25/02 ~~~~~~
Hope i did this right, if so i will wag my tail at this.
1690 ez2
1705 shooter
1710 Poet
1717 timhyma
1734 Matt
1737 xxrayeyes
1740 Muell
1745 JXM
1750 bbgold :^)
1755 Phil(Bullrider)
KP, more on TTWO
From MarketEdge.com i get this stuff for nothing on Datek
Second Opinion® - TAKE-TWO INTERACTIVE (TTWO)
Exchange: NMS • In S&P Small Cap
Report Date: 02/25/02
Trading Activity - 02/22/02 Technical Terms Explained
Close 15.25 Change -0.25 Volume(00) 12504
Open 15.60 High 15.60 Low 15.03
Opinion
Opinion LONG Opinion Date 11/26/01 Opinion Price 14.44
Score -3 C-Rate 0.1 Power Rating 3
Recommendation
Stock shows Strongly Deteriorating Conditions. SCORE = -3
If you are Long, close position or monitor stock closely.
Stock is Not a Short Sale Candidate.
Comments
Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) indicates a Bearish Trend.
Chart pattern indicates a Possible Trend Reversal.
Relative Strength is Bullish.
Up/Down volume pattern indicates that the stock is under Distribution.
The 50 day Moving Average is rising which is Bullish.
The 200 day Moving Average is rising which is Bullish.
Watch for Resistance at 18.87
Price Analysis
Yr. High 24.50
Yr. Low 6.44
MO Chg.(%) -17.8
Resistance 18.87
Support N/A
SELL STOP 18.06
Volatility(%) 2.6
Position 25
ADXR 20
MA Price % Slope
10 Day 17.53 87 DOWN
21 Day 17.94 85 DOWN
50 Day 17.13 89 UP
200 Day 16.22 94 UP
Volume Analysis
Ave Volume(00) 13866
MO Chg.(%) 3.1
U/D Ratio 0.7
U/D Slope DOWN
On Balance Volume BR
Positive OBV BR
Negative OBV BR
Money Flow(MF) 14
MF Slope UP
Technical Analysis
Alpha 0.36
Beta 1.13
MACD ST BR
MACD LT BR
STO(Fast %K) 25
STO(Slow %K) 32
50-Day R.S. 1.11
Wilder's RSI 0
OBOS 1
B.BANDS 30
RSV 79