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SPARK....You da Man! My congratulations to you on your most recent and well deserved promotion to Moderator. You are fair and balanced in an Ihub that defies description. All the best!...Jim
outsider1975....I loved 1975 as it was the first year after getting back from the war...Have the best...Jim
c70...Have a very nice weekend also....Jim
Historic time for SARISSA Resources!
There was a post last week that called for a disappointing share price reaction to the up and coming compliance report. The poster also told us to trust his research and claimed to have examined some 40 past NI43-101 reports released that had little to no effect upon the company's share price. I challenge that ill-gotten assumption as I believe that a meaningful comparison had not been made.
In order for a past company's price action upon release of the NI 43 -101 to be comparable with SRSR's PPS movement upon compliance release, the following criteria must be present:
1) The company's market cap known ( Outstanding stock X PPS).
2) The company must be releasing their first compliance report, i.e. they had zero resources prior to release.
3) The company is looking at an initial report valued in the Billions of dollars,i.e. a world class, life changing deposit.
4) The report only represents a small fraction of the estimated deposit, i.e. a lot of blue sky to go (1.7 billion pounds of Niobium presently outlined at lake Nemegosenda from the PR's plus the REE's).
It is going to be hard to find one like this so let's just say that all the comparisons at this juncture is really a waste of time and a real discredit to this unique situation that is unfolding before us. This company is on the verge of going from an almost valueless Pink sheet stock to a very credible mining development company with a NI43-101 compliant report in the BILLIONS of bucks. This alone is monumental and a classic in the world of mining. Now add to this exciting, soon to be completed fact, the continuation of the drilling program on the way to measuring the billion plus pounds of Niobium and all the REE's into compliant reserves and you have a real haymaker of a play.
The stock price won't move under this scenario? Like hell it won't! It is just a question of how high. After the flurry, the next step will even be more exciting as we continue to build a WORLD CLASS Rare Earth Minerals deposit that has incredible worldwide demand and growing.....We haven't seen nothin' yet!
have a nice weekend....Jim
silicon gold....Yup, looks like I missed the fireworks today. Can we say good week?!? Smiling like a butcher's dog.....Jim
Pdog.....I didn't detect any intent on your part to get cheaper shares by your last post.
I believe that the picture was placed on the blog to assure the stock holders that the compliance report was being worked on. I can't determine any specifics about the red arrow, but I do find it strange that they have chosen a reproduction of the adit/ Dominion Gulf results. Wouldn't it be more logical to use reproductions/data from the present drilling? Could this be another subtle clue that the Qualified Persons in the photo just might be using old data along with the new drillings for the report?
Before I get jumped on, allow me to state that the old data cannot be used on its own, but may be used if determined to be from a reliable assay concern that did the work. Then if the present drilling validates the past work, it could be used in a present compliance report. We'll have to wait and see....Jim
goldwingeurope....Excellent!
"By the nature of the report it is independent so we don't have the luxury of expectations, just hopes and my hopes are no different then yours I am sure. Merle"
I believe that the company and my projections may not be far off, but the QP's doing the report may not share our "hopes" as the report will be done using very strict criteria.
learner1156...Thanks....ROFL...There's always the ignore button - well put!
OntaREEo...In answer to your objections, I sincerely believe that the data I had used and the calculations made were done objectively and the projections made were derived from those calculations. I don't view my effort as a "to da moon" piece of fiction nor did I take the conservative road and downgrade my estimates to a "safe" level that would come in under the compliance report. I am attempting to get as close as I can to what I believe the report will look like in its finished form.
My reasons for including the Se Zones was again predicated on what was in the PR. I am of the belief that the company may be able to get an inferred resource out of the area that they succinctly defined in area and grade. They gave this data for a reason and also stated that we could expect a "delineation" of the SE Zone in the report. How is an inferred resource possible with old drill core reports? Remember that Musto in 1988 had the Dominion drill cores and verified them. Based upon their verification of Dominion's cores, we may be able to use the SE data from Musto's work. From an earlier post today:
"Nice report, I opened the technical report for RES.V on their website and it appears they used new drill hole assay’s combined with old drill hole data from the early 90’s as part of their NI 43-101 compliance (see pg. 22 of their report). They said they were able to do this because the work was done by experienced labs and mining companies and the consistency of assay values “indicate a quality of work acceptable for the purpose of this report.”"
Until the report comes out, no one will know for certain. These are my honest appraisals based upon the best info I have. I am not trying to please you, the company, the pumpers, or the bashers. I am trying the very best I can to impart what little I have to offer for others that may be interested in this company. Ultimately I do it sincerely, honestly, and for the sake of self-fulfillment. If you find fault with my work, so be it.....Jim
PS You may view my work as "yo-yoing...going from aggressive ($8)to very conservative ($2.5B) to wildly aggressive, back to $8 B in the D zone....", but to me it is just a normal evolution in the DD process.
The figures change as I get new perspectives from the data. I believe that being flexible in DD is a must. I may even change my projections again based upon new data or a new jewel picked from the PR's. If this is really troublesome to you and other serious longs, I will discontinue my posting.
Leigh01....Good info! It is deals like this that bring attention to the value of Niobium and REEs.
If I only had that 10,000 shares of Microsoft back that I sold at 10...LOL
doberman...."How may more core samples do you need to get from inferred to indicated?
Can you use old core samples? How do you verify/prove the chain of custody?"
Good questions! The first question would take a qualified person to answer as I don't have a clue.
Old core samples that have been labelled and stored in a secure manner, can be used in resource computations. The particulars of which would have to be assessed by a "qualified person"....Jim
offshore48.....Yes, if i had all my craps losses back at this moment, I could buy up all the O/S stock of SRSR and Scott would be working for me....LOL
dmbao..."don't really get this. Is the post possibly implying that we have NI stuff ready to go on the SE zone? Seems a stretch to me but I may be misinterpreting what is being said."
Yes, this is implying that "IF" Scott has the old core drillings that Musto used back in 1988 (original Dominion Gulf cores drilled in the 50's), we "MAY" be looking at some "Indicated" resource in the SE Zone. Yes, this is a stretch and loaded with OPINION.....Jim
offshore....I think our chances may be a bit better than the odds in craps in Vegas. I love playing craps, but am sure that I have paid for most of the carpetting in Binions DT Las Vegas with my losses....LOL....Jim
I just received a private post that I think is very significant in its implications. I won't reveal the poster as it was received privately. I just wanted all to know that this brilliant observation is not from me.
What if Scott has the drill cores from the Musto work of the SE Zone back in 1988? If so, we could expect to get an indicated resource instead of an inferred one. Good observation and certainly a possibility.
Thanks dmbao....You keep watching and adding as your only increasing your future net worth. I think you are going to have a fairly large tax problem ahead. Hope that Mr. Obama doesn't mess with the long term captal gains rate....
Threw-er-back....That's why i don't watch the pps - it'll drive you crazy!
doberman....You're right! Nothing wrong with being a mutt. I had one as a boy and still miss the little critter...Sit, wait, and enjoy the quiet before the big news hits and begins a process that will change our lives forever....Jim
futrcash...Good on ya!
offshore....You thank me now, but what if my "guesses" prove to be all wet?..LOL...I'll go from Great Dane to Mutt!
I am just one opinion among many on this board. Until we get the N.I. 43-101, all of us are just guessing!
Threw-er-back....Yes, the PPS may have gone down a bit by the lowered expectation of the D Zone resource, but who really cares about what the pps does from hour to hour? I certainly don't. We are living on a Pinkie market with all its MM manipulation and other unfair practices. The minute to minute stuff that goes on with the PPS is not worth worrying about - that is if you believe in this stock and its ultimate adjustment to fair value.
I don't watch the temporary ups and downs here and certainly don't make a post to shore up a fallen price. I don't think that this board or any other has any long term effects on the price movement. The ultimate determining factor of price is company worth. I play to that and that alone. If I detect something negative that i don't like, I'll sing out loud and clear. Until that time, I'll keep my attentions on the fundamentals of the company and leave the pps for those that need to watch it.....Jim
N.I. 43-101 guesstimate update:
My last stab at guesstimating this awsome deposit was focused on the D Zone:
"The 3 categories of resource are 1) Measured 2) Indicated 3) Inferred. The company believes that they have enough drilling/ancillary data to justify an "indicated" resource estimate. I don't know if the total 404 million pounds will be in the indicated category, but certainly a good portion will. That is what the Qualified Persons are determining.
It would really be fantastic if the total of indicated and inferred resource would come in at around 400 million pounds of Niobium. That would place the resource at approximately $8 BILLION market value."
Next OntaREEo rightly pointed out that the drilling program recently completed covered 30% of the defined resource area of Zone D. I and others were quick to conclude that this upcoming report would most likely then contain only about 121,000,000 lbs of indicated resource for a market value of some $2.5 Billion.
Rereading the pr's for the umpteenth time, this exerpt from the Apr 22 PR really brought the entire issue to rest. The conclusions that follow have brought me to a feeling of completion for all of my guess work!
"The company is on schedule to produce an N.I. 43-101 mineral resource report. With our work to date, we expect the results of our evaluation to accomplish a number of objectives, including:
-- Materially increase the reported historical resource and;
-- Establish that the Nemegosenda mineral resources represent one of the
larger mineral niobium resources in North America and;
-- Outline the potential mineralized area within the South East Zone."
How are they going to show an increase in the historic resource (188,000,000 lbs) if they only show 30% of the drilled resource (121,000,000 lbs)?
The company stated with the work done to date that they can "materially increase the reported historic resource."
I believe that they can use most of the 404,000,000 lbs. that was the claculated amount from data given in the same report. They could do this by calling the drilled area (9 recent holes) an "indicated resource" and the remainder that was not drilled by us, but has historic data that we confirmed, an inferred resource.
My conclusion for D Zone is an indicated resource of 121,400,000 lbs. and an inferred resource of 283,400,000 lbs.
Lastly they state that they are going to outline the potential of the SE Zones in our soon to be released N.I. report. There seems to be enough data from the past that just may be eligible for use in an inferred resource estimate as the company is really looking to include the SE Zone potential in this report or why would they have mentioned outlining the resource in the SE Zones? From the same PR:
"In 1988 Musto Explorations Limited ("Musto") carried out an evaluation of the so called "East Zone" (the South East Zone), which is located some 1500m south east from the D Zone. Musto re-assayed nine drill holes from core which was still available. These nine drill holes are from an area of 250m x 700m and to a depth of 200m. Sarissa has checked the reports, maps and sections from this area and have calculated that there is a potential resource with a weighted average grade of some 0.35% Nb2O5 within this block of 250m x 700m x 200m."
Resource calculation:
250 X 700 X 200 mts. = 35,000,000 cu mts X 2.8 cu mts/tonne
= 98,000,000 tonnes X .0035 Ni = 343,000 tonnes Ni x 2204.6 lbs./tonne = 756,177,800 lbs. Niobium in SE Zones.
This 756 million lbs of resource that was outlined in the PR from the Musto work just may show up as inferred resource in the NI report. The tip off, I believe, was in the prase "outline the potential mineralized area in the South East Zone." I believe that the justification for using the data is because Musto was able to re-assay the original cores from Dominion Gulf:
"Musto re-assayed nine drill holes from core which was still available"
- BIG, BIG find here!!!! Musto located the drill cores from the old Dominion work. If we had been able to locate the old Dominion cores in the D Zone, we may not have needed to drill at all in D Zone. Scott was originally hoping that they would find the old drill cores on the property, but no luck. The really big news here is that Musto was able to get the old drill cores and because they confirmed the earlier Dominion Gulf assays, we might be able to use the data for an "Inferred" estimate. I find it significant that this find by Musto is mentioned in a PR.
Conclusion and best guesstimate of resource:
From D Zone: 121,400,000 lbs Indicated and 283,400,000 lbs. Inferred.
From SE Zone: 756,000,000 lbs. inferred resource.
Total: 121,400,000 lbs Indicated and 1,039,400,000 lbs. Inferred
At $20/lb that is a total market value of Indicated resource of $2.43 billion and an Inferred of $20.788 Billion.....
This is all speculation and opinion on my part, but derived from data contained in the company PR's, which I believe to be reliable....Good trading....Jim
Emergcy..."Its asthonishing to talk about such big value and then even not find it recognized among explorers."
No one in the mining industry gives a rats %ss about any explorer until they have proven up the goods. That's why the price is at 4 cents and we are getting so little attention in the marketplace.
An indicated resource in the Billions of dollars will get a lot of respect. Hang on to your joshsticky and consider yourself one of the lucky ones to have found this play before it has its day in the sun!...Good investing...Jim
MeJeff..."Drill hole intersections, with a weighted average grade of 0.43%, are located within a surface area of some 76,250 square metres and to a depth of at least 200m"
Your entire post is worth rereading and placing up on the post it section. The position that you and I had taken on the resource that was derived from the information that was extracted from the 22 Apr pr and the 2 Feb PR is most probably accurate. I have rehashed the figures and reread all a number of times. The figure on the D zone of 404,000,000 lbs. of Ni came from data taken from the PR's. I believe the PR's to be accurate to a fault. I believe that this # is close. It is my opinion, but based upon data I believe is accurate.
That said, the company position is in a "wait until the Ni43-101 validates the data" posture. They have not made the calculations that I and MeJeff have made. They are not able to do that and remain within the letter of the law. The criteria for compliance is strict and I am very glad that our mgt. team is doing all the right things in regard to the regs. Call Merle and you will get nothing more than the historic resource position. Anything more would be reclusive. On this board, we can make all the calculations and guesstimates that we desire, but the mgt team is playing by the rules and my hat is off to them for it.
Big resource a coming and no pump on the company's part. I got my shares and i am a waitin'....Good investing...Jim
Spark....Have already had 2 minor cardioinfarctions and many hyperventilating sessions thanks to the thoughts of future proven reserves...LOL...Jim
Satellite15...."Wow, 8,000 times (800,000%) increase ($1m to $8B) in value. Unimaginable, and that's just the start."
That $8 Billion represents what the company has identified as a potential resource in D Zone. As pointed out by OntaREEo, the drilling included about 30% of that potential resource and this report may only account for about $2.5 Billion of that amount. Hardly even worth getting excited about...LOL..
This report will be only the tip of the iceberg as they have more drilling in D Zone and one heck of a lot more to prove up in the SE area. With the historic data and what we have now, the future looks real promising. We ultimately could be looking at a property well in excess of $40 Billion when the REEs are taken into account....Jim
OntaREEo..."What they DRILLED THIS WINTER was 150 x 150 meters, or 22,500 square meters. So 22,500 now, 76,250 (or more) eventually. So perhaps only 30% of the $8 Billion will be Measured at this point,..."
Yes, I think that you have a good point. On this first NI with the 9 holes drilled we may come in with an indicated resource of around 120,000,000 lbs of Ni - $2.5Billion. It is just guess work on our part at this time. That is what they are paying an independent source a lot more qualified than us to assess....Won't be long now...Jim
My bad....This post:
NATIONAL INSTRUMENT43-101 GUESTIMATE:
I don't have any time guesses on when the Qualified persons will be finished with the report. Since it is their collective professional %sses on the line for the report's accuracy, rest assured that time is not a factor for them. The report will be done when the QP's and the company determine that it is finished. This is the most critical report a company makes public as it defines its value through resource/reserves. Caution and a slow pace is called for and anything else would be totally not in the shareholders best interests.
The company has been very good about keeping the shareholders informed of exploration developments and other material changes that have a direct bearing on us. Sometimes the data has to be accumulated from a number of PR's and other public accounts (web and blog). I appreciate the fact that Scott has done so in a very low-key and matter-of-fact manner. If there is a critique of the company, it would be in the area of down playing a truly world class deposit find. Be that as it may, I would like to present an estimate of resource based upon what public information I have extracted from the company.
Total resource of Zone D estimate:
Assumptions:
1) cu meters of resource ; 76,250 sq mts X 200mts = 15,250,000 cu mts (PR - 22 April 2009)
2) Total tonnes of Zone D resource = 2.8 cu Tonnes X 15,250,000 cu mts = 42,700,000 tonnes of resource (PR - 2 Feb 2009)
3) .43% Niobium/resource (PR - 22 Apr 2009)
Total estimated pounds of Niobium in Zone D:
42,700,000 tonnes X .0043 X 2204.6 lbs/tonne = 404,786,606 lbs.
The 3 categories of resource are 1) Measured 2) Indicated 3) Inferred. The company believes that they have enough drilling/ancillary data to justify an "indicated" resource estimate. I don't know if the total 404 million pounds will be in the indicated category, but certainly a good portion will. That is what the Qualified Persons are determining.
It would really be fantastic if the total of indicated and inferred resource would come in at around 400 million pounds of Niobium. That would place the resource at approximately $8 BILLION market value.
This little Pinkie will be going from a asset base below a million dollars presently to one that has a Zone D resource that could be exceeding 8 BILLION DOLLARS. This is totally mind blowing to me. How will the market perceive this change?
It will be exciting to watch!...good investing....Jim
Challenge for the board:
Please go over my calculations that establish my "hypothesis" that we will have over 400,000,000 lbs. of niobium in D Zone. Use the information from the 22 of April PR and the 2nd of Feb's PR. If I have made any errors in assumptions or calculations, please bring it out now. I don't want to be accused of misleading anyone. Thanks....Jim
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_person.asp?membernum=74549
doberman....Yes LOL ....Just the good commies that want to do business with SRSR can stay.
Norton..."All green technology depends on rare-earth metals and all global trade in rare earth depends on China."
Good quote!
The price jump after the compliance report is announced may not go to the levels that most here are hoping. If we only get a spike to the 20-25 cent area, don't fret as the next stage is coming right behind the report (IMHO).
I think the real price mover will be the announcement of funding for the rest of the project, which I expect to be a really sweet deal. Look at the off take that CALVF has with a Chinese outfit for their zinc. They gave up no stock (no dilution), got the feasibility study done, all financing for the processing plant/equipment will be set up at a bank by the group, and a contract to purchase most of their production for 5 years at the prevailing market price with a guaranteed floor price to ensure a profit. These kind of deals are available if you have the right commodity that is demand. Even if Niobium wasn't the first choice, they would gladly cut us a deal to get at our potentially rich resource of REEs. That may turn out to be the real initial drawing card at present.
REE's may be the real carrot here, but it is the Niobium that will put us on the map! I think that Scott will dance with the girl that he brought and her name is "sweet Niobium"...Jim
SPARK...Thanks....What have you heard from the head shed of Sarissa Resources as of late? Any Chinese guests staying at the Toronto Hilton?....LOL...Have a good weekend...Jim
doug....Thanks for the NI43-101 report.
Yes, these are involved and take time to produce. The author's professional tukus is on the line and they check, double check, and recheck for errors. Looks like a good read....Jim
MeJeff...."So I beleve .33-.56 is a realsitic GUESS for SP based on compliance report. I am no expert, if someone thinks this is crazy, please speak up and explain why (Whithout acting like an A@!). Thanks."
Looking at OntaREEo's chart at the $8 BILLION level of Niobium, he has a pps range of 32 - 54 cents in the 3%-5% column. I believe that you are a penny off on the low end and 2 cents off on the high end. What a flagrant pumper!..LOL..
You used all the company's figures so no one can accuse you of "pumping". We both believe in the company's posted figures. That's good enough for me. If I couldn't believe what the company is telling us, I'd be gone in a New York minute.
Go work MeJeff!....MeJim
IGoLong........"You predicted a pps of $0.71 with $4.8B. Now, with new information, you say we could be worth $8B. I was simply asking if you thought that we could now expect to see around a $1.70 pps. That's it. Nothing more."
Let me answer that in a manner that brings into account the changes in the market since that loftier prediction of mine. This board contains a lot of DD muscle and I'll go to one of the best sources for PPS possibilities. My guess will be that a NI43-101 that outlines a 400,000,000 lb+ Niobium resource could very possibly produce an initial price spike of 3-7% of the market value of the resource.
For your answer go to the chart of PPS to market valuation of Niobium crafted by our own ontaREEo and tell us what the PPS could be. This chart is an excellent source of future price when taking into account a corresponding resource value. This is how an exploration/development company in the mining business is valued as there is no present revenues. Resouce value is the name of the game. This chart is updated and reflects the current market if one uses a lower spike % as I have done since my loftier prediction. Excellent work OtaREEo!
I Go, I think that you are up to the challenge. Now go, I Go, to the chart and share with us what you find. Give it a whirl. You'll be a better person for it ...All the very best...Jim
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=37893104
I GO....."You predicted a pps of $0.71 with $4.8B. Now, with new information, you say we could be worth $8B. I was simply asking if you thought that we could now expect to see around a $1.70 pps. That's it. Nothing more."
That was a sensible question and pardon me for reading an agenda in it. The trouble with predicting a PPS is that the market dictates and there are too many variables at work in this market now to make any kind of a plausible prediction. I am at a loss and nothing would surprise me. Bottom line - don't have the foggiest idea and that's the truth....Good luck...Jim
I Go Long...."Based on this new calculation/estimate of $8 billion, are you still comfortable with a pps (after release of NI) of roughly twice the $0.71 number from before?
Just curious if any of your thoughts have changed with respect to what you know now, a year later."
I do the number crunching from the facts given, you make the wild a&^ pps predictions....Got it....Jim
dmbao...the market cap will be going up to new levels for this company. It's going to be fun!
NATIONAL INSTRUMENT43-101 GUESTIMATE:
I don't have any time guesses on when the Qualified persons will be finished with the report. Since it is their collective professional %sses on the line for the report's accuracy, rest assured that time is not a factor for them. The report will be done when the QP's and the company determine that it is finished. This is the most critical report a company makes public as it defines its value through resource/reserves. Caution and a slow pace is called for and anything else would be totally not in the shareholders best interests.
The company has been very good about keeping the shareholders informed of exploration developments and other material changes that have a direct bearing on us. Sometimes the data has to be accumulated from a number of PR's and other public accounts (web and blog). I appreciate the fact that Scott has done so in a very low-key and matter-of-fact manner. If there is a critique of the company, it would be in the area of down playing a truly world class deposit find. Be that as it may, I would like to present an estimate of resource based upon what public information I have extracted from the company.
Total resource of Zone D estimate:
Assumptions:
1) cu meters of resource ; 76,250 sq mts X 200mts = 15,250,000 cu mts (PR - 22 April 2009)
2) Total tonnes of Zone D resource = 2.8 cu Tonnes X 15,250,000 cu mts = 42,700,000 tonnes of resource (PR - 2 Feb 2009)
3) .43% Niobium/resource (PR - 22 Apr 2009)
Total estimated pounds of Niobium in Zone D:
42,700,000 tonnes X .0043 X 2204.6 lbs/tonne = 404,786,606 lbs.
The 3 categories of resource are 1) Measured 2) Indicated 3) Inferred. The company believes that they have enough drilling/ancillary data to justify an "indicated" resource estimate. I don't know if the total 404 million pounds will be in the indicated category, but certainly a good portion will. That is what the Qualified Persons are determining.
It would really be fantastic if the total of indicated and inferred resource would come in at around 400 million pounds of Niobium. That would place the resource at approximately $8 BILLION market value.
This little Pinkie will be going from a asset base below a million dollars presently to one that has a Zone D resource that could be exceeding 8 BILLION DOLLARS. This is totally mind blowing to me. How will the market perceive this change?
It will be exciting to watch!...good investing....Jim