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Okay, I'll mark your words "Not worried about dilution."
Fannie and Freddie together enterprise value is 250-300B.
With excessive share count dilution... you could be at 5 cents a share... Even a housing boom that doubles and triples it will land you at 10-15 cents per share...
You may want to care about it.
Fannie is also not worth 4.2 Trillion.
Common holders wish for their own demise by worshipping Buffett who is an even bigger dilution threat than the govt.
LOOOOOOOOOL.
If Buffett is to take a position in FnF he would do so in such a way that HE gets the LION'S SHARE of the equity.
In other words, guaranteed dilution for legacy commons.
He is more of a threat than the govt and Bradford's dilution solution.
Careful what you wish for.
The writing is on the wall. Commons may do well up until release but once the process is cemented, imminent dilution will befall all common shareholders.
Price target: 5 cents.
Unfortunately the financial advisors hired by FHFA/FNMA/FMCC happen to be the banksters advising this whole charade.
Houlihan Lokey
Morgan Stanley
JP Morgan
Then you'll just be eternally waiting.
Joe Biden will be taking credit for it on March 7th State of the Union Address.
America's recommitment to housing affordability and resolving the last lingering item from the great financial crisis.
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/pennant.asp
To be quite honest, this always gave me an eerily similar feeling to astrology... Don't know how people live with this but apparently the financial world does.
There are 2 more scheduled dates after Mon Jan 22nd... why are you trying to skip the line?
A senior-to-common conversion like the one Mnuchin proposed would involve both Treasury and junior pref holders taking an equal percentage discount on their respective liquidation preferences. If it had happened in late 2020 the haircut would have been huge (70%), but now it would be more like 50% and will be something around 30-40% by the end of 2025.
Pelosi is the buy signal.
LOL, unfortunately for you, it'll go up by a dollar next week. I expect trump to win New Hampshire and it's going to ROCKET.
Better buy some preferreds homeboy.
The BOOM went in the wrong direction for commons.
Smart money is in the preferreds.
Bad news Friday, all of FnF will end RED today.
Expectations is for major GREEN on Wednesday after Trump wins New Hampshire Tuesday.
Brother. If your stake is worth $100, it doesn't matter if you've 1x $100 bill or 5x $20 bills or 20x $5 bills. Hell, even 100x $1 bills are all the same.
And who are you supposed to be?
5800%+ expected gain and its a "HOLD" and not a buy?
Time to sell those GSE puppies and buy some common shares if that is the case.
Unfortunately it has nothing to do with "maximizing the value of commons" because how much the govt's stake is worth have nothing to do with the price of common shares.
The percentage of ownership is what determines how much the govt's stake is worth. Ultimately the enterprise value is the starting point and that is unaffected by how many shares are outstanding.
You can forward split, reverse split the common shares as much as you want but it does not intrinsically affect how much your position is worth.
What are you common holders doing?! You need to buy more to keep the price up. It's going in the wrong direction.
How many shares of FnF does Alec Mazo have?
Decent common volume but seems to be heading in the wrong direction. Driving in reverse?
Commons or Preferreds?
Hey Rodney, you don't have to look very far because its literally right on FHFA's website.
https://www.fhfa.gov/Conservatorship/Pages/Senior-Preferred-Stock-Purchase-Agreements.aspx
There's been a SLEW of housingwire articles related to GSEs recently.
The rumor mill is definitely churning, over in DC.
That article is spot on... Mortgage industry wants fannie and freddie out, not because they care but because keeping them in conservatorship is finally hurting their bottomline.
To the moon it goes today.
That basically states that Lamberth damages are NOT capital distribution.
It is referring to legal payment of a purchase or sale of an equity security of an enterprise OR for damages arising from the purchase, sale or retention of such a security.
Please. Read. Carefully.
(3) Any payment of any claim, whether or not reduced to judgment, liquidated or unliquidated, fixed, contingent, matured or unmatured, disputed or undisputed, legal, equitable, secured or unsecured, arising from rescission of a purchase or sale of an equity security of an Enterprise or for damages arising from the purchase, sale, or retention of such a security.
Link: https://www.law.cornell.edu/cfr/text/12/1229.13
Put another way:
- (3) Any payment of any claim
- (whether or not reduced to judgment, liquidated or unliquidated, fixed, contingent, matured or unmatured, disputed or undisputed, legal, equitable, secured or unsecured)
- arising from rescission of a purchase or sale of an equity security of an Enterprise or for damages arising from the purchase, sale, or retention of such a security.
None of Sandra's weekly parking tickets that have been paid by FnF have been considered "capital distributions."
And you don't think Trump will screw shareholders since his MO is to book "yuge profits"?
Bro, capital distribution is distribution of profits which comes in the form of dividends and share buybacks. It ends on a positive note.
It's not profit distribution from Lamberth's court, it is a fine/damages/penalty. It is an ordinary expense. It ends on a negative note.
For the last time, there is NO DELAY in Lamberth's court. It is on schedule and right on time according to his order. If a deadline was missed then you can say it is a delay.
I'm still waiting for your profound wisdom... yet to be seen.
1/11/24 - Biden Admin Could Lean on GSEs in Election Year
https://www.insidemortgagefinance.com/articles/229893-might-biden-weaponize-the-gses-by-nov-5?v=preview
1/12/24 - James Lockhart Says It’s Time to End the Conservatorship
https://www.insidemortgagefinance.com/articles/229912-james-lockhart-says-its-time-to-end-the-conservatorship?v=preview#:~:text=And%20when%20it%20comes%20to,do%20much%20to%20control%20supply.
1/16/24 - Lockhart Suggests GSEs Make Their Case to End Conservatorship
https://www.insidemortgagefinance.com/articles/229930-lockhart-suggests-gses-make-their-case-to-end-conservatorship?v=preview
When are you going to learn to stop using bold and italics for everything? You do know that those are meant for emphasis on certain words right?
Wow, commons above a buck. Must be due to Trump's Iowa Win.
Barron, the Lamberth damages is not distribution of capital. It's your typical run of the mill expense, no different from paying the salaries of FHFA.
I'm not sure why there is this idea that there is a delay in Lamberth's ruling.
There is no delay because it is moving on schedule.
Literally in the proposed order, he states
- Final decision requires an allocation plan
- Plaintiffs need to submit it.
- Defendants need to agree/appeal
I don't care about who did the deed, Rs or Ds. Crying over spilt milk only provides entertainment for those laughing at you over the spilt milk.
Super Tuesday is in less than 2 months.
Biden is out of shots... no more bullets left. At least anything that he can get done reasonably quickly and make a difference.
Fortunately for him, there is one last trigger to pull that can make a difference. Free FnF and single handedly drop the 30 yr mortgage rate by 1-1.25%
Imagine those headlines going into the election.
That NYT article was fabulous reporting albeit with 2-3 factual errors... but great background info nonetheless.
During early years of conservatorship period, the motive was to eliminate FnF so that the big banks can absorb their business.
However, since the Feds started jacking up the interest rates and the mortgage rate spreads started widening, the conservatorship is now negatively affecting the big banks business.
It has become more beneficial to release the GSE than to keep them in conservatorship. Forgot who said it but GSE release and resumption of buying MBS can drop the mortgage rates by about 1-1.25%.
Commons quiet today.
JPS market manipulation?
- FNMAT had 4.5M shares traded with average volume of 60k...
- FNMAS set 52 week high @ 3.50 in the last half hour of trading.