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If the government wants investors to have faith in capitalism, they will do not only what they think is required but what is right and just, even if it hurts a few previous politicians reputations. Pissing off untold numbers of investors and telling them the banana republic is in charge of their market, is a sure fired way to really mess things up. Is the government that desparate and willing to risk faith in capitalist markets for more theft?
Just watch when someone who matters announces a REAL release. Not the clowns supposing on here or saying they have inside info. The commons will jump like popcorn for days upon a REAL release announcement by a definite date. The JPS...., not so much. Their value is tied to dividends, those dividends will no doubt be suspended still, at release. Especially if any consent decree is done where they allow release with what they deem as a minimum capital requirement, which we all know is major BS because: stress tests have proven they are capitalized solid, right now. The only thing in the way is the governments cement shoes they affixed to the GSE's with warrants and senior liquidation pref BS. But everyone knows those cement shoes are a huge fraud, so they need to do the right thing. Many will be watching at the point a release is done. Many will hold their hand to see if government does the right thing. Why? Because if they don't, there is a very real risk much bigger than the mortgage market or the banks, and that is government getting its grubby hands on investors money again, by pulling this conservatorship crap again in the future. So, many will be watching to see how this gets handled. If not done right, then maybe the government might get stuck with the GSE's forever because the governments crooked eposure makes them far to risky and uninvestable.
A release announcement made with some other positive news, like capitalized enough, write down of all or most of the seniors, or cancellation of the warrants, are all of the above, and the price on the commons after a week or two is anyone's guess! Mr. Markets participants won't be chasing a prefferred share, because those who do chase pref shares, know nothing is changed until their dividend gets reinstated. There won't be any dividends for any share class for awhile after release. There's not going to be any conversion or cram down. We will release as we were fraudulently put in. JMHO.
How old is that CBO report? Context matters, as does the current housing, interest rate and political environment.
It just shows our government is very adept at hiring many, many incompetent people, or could it be nepotism? Family? Lobbyist? Campaign supporters? Spouses? Who else?
There's well over 350?b but don't know where you got 350 from my original post?
Buffet commented that the GSE's can run themselves and said that a small handful could run the place.
Do you think it takes 16k?
But actually 16k plus the 700 heads and Sandra at FHFA that the GSE's fund
Warren Buffett said he and a handful could run the GSE's.... How many head count is it between FHFA (approx 700 employees) AND the GSE's (approx 16,000) now???
Oh yeah, then there's the IRS needing to hire 87,000 auditors to go after the top 1% billionaires, which equals approx 3,140 people. Even if it was the top 5% of rich population you're looking at less than 20k people.
Yeah! You voted for that. Makes sense, right,?
DC = 141,367 I think that's just the purchasing dept for TP for the bathrooms? You must Loooove taxes.
Federal Civilian Employment
Geographic Area All Agencies* Department of Defense
District of Columbia 141,367 11,693
Fifty States 1,693,382 644,218
US Territories 12,720 3,321
Washington, DC-MD-VA-WV, CBSA 282,666 61,002
People should be screaming for a 30% or more reduction in government jobs, positions and also demand that those that remain take a 20% pay cut. We're in a financial mess BECAUSE OF THEM.
I gave ya a thumbs up because I hope you're right!.... and I like that name Augie, hilarious.
Ooh but it's disastrous to buy commons , didn't you know? They have no security other than 10's of or 100's of millions upon millions of buyers who purchase them way before they purchase a preferred share, because about 5% of the population knows what a preferred share is while 100% of the same population knows what the regular common shares are.
Maybe the JPS crowd should do a free world tour capital stack seminar in every country, language??? Educate all of us less intelligent folk. Lmao sure, let's have them do that... Lol
All I heard was waaaaaaaa. JPS
Waaaaaaaa, sniff, sniff, sob, moan and beech.
This will replay at release. Learn from it.
Absolutely! And we're talking hundreds of billions (BILLIONS!) You can buy a crap load of people with only 1% of 1 billion.
Heck yeah! Very interesting if they can't pay out! That would mean accumulated interest for????
But then they could maybe finagle something that refutes the award, lol, like their later than last minute frick'n notification that the NWS stopped 😉, sure it did😉
Yes! Market, or someone knows something! If this was the BIG JPS contract claims case, why are they slowly going down? Why would people sell with awards of over $1 per share supposedly coming? Is it going to be held up indefinitely because of that clause? No paying anything if detrimental to the GSE's capital, thereby governments money theft? Lol
This might start getting interesting.... Clarence, where are ya?
I'd really love to know how they get away without adding the 7 trillion🤨
The credit ratings agencies are maybe where we should be focusing emails and such.
If they started threatening credit dowgrades of US debt, we'd be released in 48 hours.
The idiots running the fun farm absolutely know, there is NO CAPITAL PROBLEM if released, and they themselves are out of the way. No one on the street trusts government, especially Wall Street. Approval ratings for all branches are in the toilet. The day they say they are fully withdrawing their control, the capital issue would be solved, BUT there is the underlying chance they could redo the fraudulent take over in the future, when government is in need of a money source. There in lays the rub! Who will invest in this as long as government take over IS the greatest risk? Let's see the stress test for that when or if it happens in the future! Lol... This is why they damn well better do the right thing. Many who "would" invest are aware of the truth in what happened. They will never put theirs or other investors money at the risk of a government illegal taking again.
As a matter of fact, the government take over did more to the destruction of shareholder value than any housing crisis did in 2008. The GSE's stock plummeted and investors pulled all their capital, so government has the affect of making a bad situation tons worse by taking over anything that should be left to the capitalist system in place.
This will be the hardest issue for the government. The smart and honest folks will say, let's put them back private, with the right guardrails and leave them be. It's the greedy, constantly conspiring idiots, crooks who keep chirping the governments repeated dogma on this. It's not that things can't be got past, it's because the crooked swamp politicians don't want to get past it.
Addition...greedy and inept.
Lamberth's job on the interest couldn't be easier! Governments going to low ball, plantiffs are going to high ball. Shoot for the middle, easy peasy. If for instance plantiffs say 6.5% and government says 5%........5.75% it is so ordered! See how easy that is?Enough of the time wasting motions.
Were you not the one saying useless people only quote the internet and sites like wikipedia? Man oh man how the powerful oracle and orator has fallen in such a short time (few days)! Lol
You guys can't help being hypocrites. Speaking of bull pucky, are you not the one dancing and prancing all of the JPS conspiracy playground with GB? I thought you guys were pushing Calabria quotes? Now it's back to cram down.
We need a BS meter emoji for you JPS oracles.
Interesting🤔🤨I highly recommend the NL animal houseI video midway through the article! These are the Fannie and Freddie shareholders. Lol
https://www.npr.org/2023/10/31/1209181745/louie-louie-the-story-behind-the-song-everyone-knows-but-no-one-understands
It's great you're seeing the light instead of spouting conspiracy theories and parroting GB!
You and Kthompson have the same view, you each think you're correct and everyone else is wrong.
I am with most here saying....no one knows for sure. Shoot the dice, hope for the best, but realize, you are dealing with a sigular unique situation being controlled by a bunch of self absorbed, get rich any which way you can, politicians. When you realize these simple facts, life becomes easier. ALL shareholders are in the same boat until THE GOVERNMENT says otherwise.
If you know differently, then please provide us solid evidence. Not from your own opinion, or GB's opinion, or Kthompson opinion/obfuscation/cerry picking clauses and leaving out context. Provide solid proof, right now, from a government official who counts, that says JPS will crush commons and embarass government or come out smelling like a rose on this.
Remember...you are dealing with a unique, one of a kind 15 year fraudulent conservatorship that nemerous administrations decided to keep their hands off of as far as release. Those thinking capital stacks matters are in for a naivety arse whipping from the thieves in charge of the bank. (Same as foxes and hen houses)
We only have hope in a very few honest judges, politicians and rule of law. Numerous big names who used to be vocal and advocates on this have been silenced. Media is useless on this 85% government fed or controlled.
How much can you sell your jps for today? Par? Lmao. It is not worth 33 billion, never will be, especially with the government seniors. That is market value. Book value can be manipulated majorly, market value can not, because it is the some of many investors way smarter and informed as you are. It's why you're all over the map about "what could happen". You follow others like Bradford and neglect doing your own DD. Most here are of the same mind and in agreement, with slightly differing opinions, except the JPS crowd pumping flavor of the day, useless Calabria book quotes, non existant capital stack dreams, and worse - trying to constantly portend release based on government appointments and other useless trickle out news.
READ AND UNDERSTAND book value Vs market value. Especially market value.
You are wrong.....AGAIN
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/110613/market-value-versus-book-value.asp#:~:text=The%20book%20value%20literally%20means,all%20its%20debts%20and%20obligations.
Thanks for the correction Guido! I knew I read somewhere a 5 billion set aside, wasn't sure who, but I remember it being for legal settlements.
Doing everything they can to rig the mortgage market.... this admin and it's FHFA Puppet
It was said (I think) during Mnuchin Calabria, 5 billion set aside for legal payments. That right there is a full on admittance there is wrong being dealt against shareholders. IMHO
Look up! You'll see some crazy dude in an FNMA HQ shirt and Birkenstocks, flailing madly from a big rainbow colored kite, foaming at the mouth, yelling CAPITAL STACK! CAPITAL STACK! HEAR ME, CAPITAL STACK... 🤨
Show us current accounting that proves 33B is part of the current capital quoted (the 110B retained).
Ya can't, because government is not recognizing your jps equity. Even when released JPS equity will only be whatever JPS prices add up to total, and that's gonna be far short of 33 billion, like it is now. Show me, based an actual real prices NOW, what the value of JPS is....it's not 33 billion,,agian. No one would walk in right now from the market and offer 33 billion for all the JPS outstanding. Your presumptions are just that, you presume, but disregard real time facts.
Exactly Guido! If current pref's were worth 32 billion EQUITY, why has it never shown up as that? Even now! Lol
These guys really don't understand...THERE IS NO CAPITAL STACK in conservatorship, commons and JPS both are not counted towards the actual equity reported, only retained earnings and governments illegal taking. It's government against the rest of us, will these guys ever wakey, wakey?. Are they too embaraased that they'd have to slum with common holders? But yet wait a minute!!! Here they are trying to manipulate others on a BB board with some fantasy play they think they know will happen. Lol.
The JPS hold such a big cannon at governments head, they're a shoe in to even out do the criminals in charge! 🙃
OMG Folks, flavor of the day is now Calabra's book. You gotta be pretty dense to believe a has beens remarks, opposed to who will be making the actual decisions.
Did Calabria advocate bankruptcy? NO! Good bye liquidation prefference.
Did Calabria advocate dividends? NO! Good bye dividends and par value.
Did Calabria advocate making JPS rich? Good bye conversion pervision, dillution solution, cram down clown go round, capital stack crack attack dream.
Hello capital build, slow and steady, until.....BOOOM!
You would think 8% mortgages would be a catalyst, but the idiots running the assylum require the public to start threatening their well being and taking away their criminal ways. Currently we have 30% of the public blinded and too stupid, only care about what's free, and should not be voting. 30% who just don't care, put out with all of government and are too lazy to want to make a difference, then 30% on both sides that are too busy rooting for "their team" right or wrong, and doing what is needed be dammed. So....about 10% who genuinely see the dangers and call for the needed correction, but our voices are drowned out by the other 90% assylum inmates. Media loves stoking the other 90% with false or gratifying propaganda, that's where their ratings are.
Society at large has become enablers of dysfunction in our government because society keeps becoming more and more dysfunctional.
When the case first appeared in front of Lamberth after SCOTUS reviewing it, sending it back,, wasn't there an ask at filing by the plantiffs that government (FHFA), or whoever's responsible, cover lawyers fees? Does anyone have the original filing? If it was asked for, then that would be separate from the award amount, I would think. But who knows!
Hopefully this is the first crack (big) that causes the rest of the glacier lie to come crashing down. This judgement may be fruitful in other law suits, but I agree, who has the time to wait 5 years for the judges and lawyers to crawl things through. We need a serious catalyst to light a fire under government.
Guido provided his estimate of 4.8 cents. Some others here specified 5 to 6 cents. We will all know for sure in two weeks, minus a day.
That's true. Historically, going way back, there was always a spread. SCOTUS did screw that up royal with their ruling.
I don't know if the adjudicating of this case would cause for that spread to reappear🤔.... I'm guessing that there are many who are optimistic like I am that someone like Akman will jump start an FNMA class action. 80% of the work was done with this last case, but there's about 20% in my opinion that they could change, rejigger and fight differently to obtain a far better outcome. Crap, even if the same law firm handled FNMA that faced Lamberth, you can bet they'd change up a lot of stuff from lessons learned.
I think it depends. If everyone just gets a check, then absolutely no question taxable.
BUT....
If each account with your shares is credited with cash, example: your IRA has FMCC shares, so that account is credited money in a MM fund linked to it (all brokerage and IRA, Roth accounts, etc usually have an MM fund attached). So if money goes to your IRA account, then not taxable until you withdraw,casual rules apply. If credited to a ROTH? That's where it would get interesting! and pain the government to all hell. It would mean that money can't be taxed at all! Based on ROTH rules, of course. So if you did as Guido was doing, and got the majority of your holdings in a Roth, that could be a sweet pay day.
I have shares in an IRA, Roth and a regular brokerage account. So I'd have a mixed bag of tax circumstances.
It says in class action literature that I've read that a payout is not necessarily in cash, that many opt to give shares or fund accounts.
Stay tuned
Yes sir-reeee. I posted the same yesterday, a bit different though. FNMA will start to tick to a wider price spread, I think, due to the class action having not happened to the FNMA shares. A class action could potentially be far better, if handled correctly.
Folks are realizing Freddie is being paid the chump change and Fannie commons will be a better play if a class action gets going. JMHO
It's ALL political. This could be done by a group of normal, non-bipartisan, serious business people in a month, or less.
Yes, exactly. If a law group takes an FNMA case to follow what the last one did, they can learn much from all that went on, including a plan to never end up in front of Lamberth. So there's a much better chance of it being contested more fairly, even if it is by jury again. I think many were astonished at the fact that the award got limited down to nothing, and even with the full 8 jurors finding for the plantiffs. A good law firm could rectify much for an FNMA law suit, and in so doing increase a payout or more embarassment for the government. I hope Ackman reads here! Lol. He's got the mojo to get an FNMA suit expedited.