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Patterson's about optimizing the use of leronlimab.
Him and Recknor are apples and oranges and both have great value. There may be nobody on the planet with the expertise in CCR5/CCL5 disruption that Patterson has so bringing him back into the fold would likely pay big benefits. He would be a poor choice for CEO but a seat on a mixed Board would be a good idea IMO.
Why is this a binary choice?
Why vote straight ticket for either current management or 13D? That doesn't make sense to me. If we get the chance to vote for all the possible candidates, vote for the ones you think would be best regardless of affiliation.
My choices would be:
Kelly for continuity
Gardiner for varied business and investment experience
Yeager for regulatory expertise
Patterson as a top CCR5 research
Plus whoever else seems to be the most competent. For me that would not include Nader. It's unclear to me how many Board members will be seated. If it's 6, a 3-3 split would be good.
This is a rare chance for shareholders to shape the company for many years to come, not just in the short-term.
I like the idea of a mixed board because if Nader were to lose his seat and there was a chance for a new CEO, that person would have to be decided on by a varied group which may give us the best chance to get someone with a strong background, one that would impress the group. My ideal would be Kelly as interim while an independent search is done.
I know people very likely aren't going to make their decisions this way but it seems like the smart thing to do.
Subcutaneous injections can be absorbed in 20-30 minutes if done correctly. So yes, her son could have easily been benefiting from the drug within 2 hours.
Just saw your message yesterday stone and Marc was kind enough to get back quickly to me by email today. He says that they are in a quiet period until the 10Q is filed Aug 13th but will have news shortly.
Also, I can't reply to your private message without a subscription but if you'd like to email me, you can at generactor (at) protonmail.com.
It looked like someone, or some algorithm, may have been spoofing the bid today with 300,000+ shares on the bid at one point that eventually disappeared without the big increase in volume. I'm far from an expert on these types of things things but whatever was happening did make wonder. We'll see what happens going forward.
A few years ago the option to have a reverse split had been authorized but I'm not sure if that had an expiration date or not.
Looking back at my notes I think the big box talks are actually for AA grade compost, not fertilizer, with a possibility of around $2 million per year, I believe it was. Unfortunately my notes got a little scrambled at that point but I think this is correct.
As far as the reverse split...if it's done immediately before uplisting and with good revenue growth shown, I think it can be a good idea and help to bring in institutional investors that have restrictions against buying in if it's not at a certain price, maybe $5. If the split is done without revenue, just hoping that being on the NASDAQ will solve problems, then it's a bad idea but I think that is unlikely because there are capital requirements for getting approved for NASDAQ listing that would very likely take institutions buying in big and that's not going to happen until serious revenue growth is shown.
I spoke with Marc this afternoon
A few things from the conversation that we've discussed here:
The closing on the Hamilton property has been delayed due to a theft of the property's electrical switchgear. This is an issue because the cost to replace the switchgear is around $250,000 so that has to be worked out before closing but it shouldn't take long.
The letter of intent concerns Susglobal buying into two other companies in the liquid fertilizer business. It's not about another company making an investment in Susglobal. The cash will be paid by Susglobal over time, not all upfront.
There are absolutely no plans to increase the authorized shares but a reverse split is likely at some point to get to NASDAQ. I expressed my hope that it would happen as organically as possible, with NASDAQ being the goal after a commensurate revenue growth is shown, and he agreed, and said that the plan was to keep the split ratio as low as possible but it does look like one could be likely.
There is a plan to capture leachate at Belleville instead of outsourcing its disposal and a possibility of monetizing that process to municipalities with recurring revenue from selling Susglobal's proprietary enzymes. There could also be an upping of the dry fertilizer sales with a big box store.
It was a great conversation, Marc was very forthcoming and passionately believes in the company. Obviously as the CEO of a public company, there was a lot he couldn't go into and I am planning to start a position although my viewpoint of it being a very high risk investment due to the unknowns of financing and being able to sell the fertilizer remain.
As we know, it all boils down to executing on Hamilton and liquid fertilizer. If that happens according to plan, the sky's the limit. But if not...
There was actually another public company called Converted Organics that had big plans to expand their waste to organic fertilizer business in 2008 to 3 facilities and an 850 tons per day food waste processing capability. They failed at expansion, wound up closing one facility, not building the other, becoming de-listed from NASDAQ in 2011 and now only exist as a small, private company with one facility producing liquid fertilizer in California. I had hoped to speak with them about their experience but no one in the company would talk to me about it.
It's a buyer's market and the terms are what I've seen before with a cash-strapped OTC-traded company banking on future growth. I guess the question is whether this is just a small opportunity they had and took while bigger things are in the works or whether they are scrounging for every penny they can get right now.
For comparison, you may be interested in checking out an 8k for a much larger raise by Cytodyn, a small pharmaceutical company I made a lot of money on (because they have a potential covid drug) but only hold a small position in now because of their reliance on these financing deals, among other things:
Cytodyn 8k
The company buying the note in that 8K, though it isn't specifically mentioned for whatever reason, is Iliad, owned by John Fife, the guy Marc leaned on too much for financing for Silver Dragon Resources which eventually led to Fife taking over Silver Dragon.
I really doubt this new Susglobal 8K filing is with Fife and the good news is that it's small enough it's not going to sink the company. Now we wait to see what's next.
What is the loan? I'm just seeing the convertible note 8K which nets the company $380,000 with 1 million shares of that already being issued.
I read your DD and appreciate it.
I went back and looked at the MECP letter of credit details and it seems to me that it's a requirement to ensure that Susglobal has the money to stay compliant with MECP environmental regulations. So I don't think it can be used for any other debt. It's just there as a standard requirement the MECP has for companies that don't have enough cash to set aside as a surety.
I think you may correct about the letter of intent being to buy into Susglobal but reading that passage it still confuses me (I am a geologist and have no legal expertise whatsoever).
I saw that the explanation of the shrinking customer base was "due to changes in the customer base including an expiring contract at prior year-end and reductions in certain waste disposed of by several customers".
I'm scheduled to talk to Marc next week.
Thanks for the welcome, Horsin.
The only letter of intent I see in the most recent quarterly filing is "for the purchase of the shares of two corporations which own proprietary processes, manufacture liquid organic fertilizers and other products", which sounds to me like Susglobal is planning to buy into two other companies. Is that correct? The price will be $8 million cash plus shares and will close on 8/31.
They also had $1.8 million due for the Hamilton purchase 6/16. I'd really like to make sure they paid that and closed the deal.
As far as finances go, and I am not a financial expert, they have to pay the PACE (credit union) loan from 2017 back by 7/30. It's unclear to me how much of that debt is outstanding.
They also have a $2.6 million mortgage due 12/31. Not sure how much is owed on that.
And, from the most recent 10Q, "In addition to the funds required to liquidate the $9,432,847 in current debt obligations and other current liabilities, the Company estimates that approximately $13,000,000 must be raised to fund capital requirements and general corporate expenses for the next 12 months".
So there are significant debt payments that have to be dealt with this year along with the money needed to get Hamilton operational and the amount of cash on hand doesn't appear to be anywhere close to enough to cover it. Obviously re-financing, taking out new loans or equity raises will have to happen to juggle all of this.
One question I'd really like answered is whether there are any discussions about increasing the amount of authorized shares, there are currently 150 million and I could see the company easily getting to that number to satisfy the near-term debt and growth.
Something that concerns me, and you may have some insight into this, Horsin, is that the Q1 discussion says that the customer base shrank in the first 3 months of the year, with 82% of its revenue from three customers, during the three-month period ended March 31, 2021 compareed to 86% from six customers in 2020. I'd like to know why that happened.
One thing I always try to keep in mind is that everything in business takes longer than expected.
I'm listening to an interview with Marc done in August 2019 and he was expecting the 2nd and 3rd sites to be online by the end of 2020 and for commercialization of the liquid fertilizer and probably NASDAQ uplisting to happen last year also. And it wasn't covid that caused the delay, he's said multiple times recently that covid didn't affect operations, it's just that his timelines are going to be, like a lot of CEOs, too optimistic.
Securing the Hamilton facility is obviously a very important step so I'm looking forward to more boxes being checked even if that takes longer than expected.
Here is the interview if you haven't heard it:
https://www.smallcapvoice.com/8-14-19-smallcapvoice-interview-susglobal-energy-corp-snrg/
Thanks.
I'm a veteran of the OTC and more than willing to take on risk within reason. The real question for me right now is what kind of position size I want to take. For these types of stocks I'll go anywhere from 0.5% to as much as 10% of my individual stock portfolio so that's something I'll have to figure out.
I hope Marc has learned his lesson about sketchy financiers.
I've been doing some research into his background and he lost the CEO-ship of his mining company, Silver Dragon Resources, to the notorious penny stock toxic lender John Fife. The company's stock crashed and I guess it couldn't make good on Fife's notes so Fife as a huge shareholder muscled his way into becoming CEO, put 2 of his relatives on the Board of Directors and now there looks to be a lawsuit pending trying to get Fife removed. Fife is definitely not the guy you want to run a mining company. The bottom line is that Marc did a very poor job guiding Silver Dragon.
Susglobal does look to have a fantastic business model but as far as high risk/high reward stock investments go, this has to about as high risk/reward as it gets and is one of the most intriguing and interesting investments I've ever seen.
Stone, do you have any info on how they are paying for the $1.7 million due for the Hamilton facility purchase and how they are going to pay to outfit the facility so it can produce the liquid fertilizer? Plus there are the costs for the lab and new employees. I called the company hoping to speak to someone and left a message, so hopefully they will call back.
This seems crazy. I would really appreciate opinions on some things.
I just discovered Susglobal and have been researching the company. I listened to the recent Lytham Partners Investment Conference interview and looked at the investor's presentation and this stock seems way too good to be true. I'm not saying it's not true, I'm very willing to go big into the stock if I feel confident in the projections, but the numbers are astonishing.
To go from an annual run rate of about $770k (with only $192k cash) currently to $248 million next year.... I've been investing a long time and can't remember ever seeing such explosive growth projected, especially with such massive margins.
I understand the Hamilton facility is new plus expansion into the US is planned but there are a few things I've noticed that maybe you all can give me some feedback on.
First, selling the fertilizer. This is obviously the big issue. The Lytham Partners interviewer asked Marc about it and his answer was basically that if they can produce it, they'll have no problem selling it, likely mostly retail. Hopefully so but that seems like a big leap. Given the around $20 billion global organic fertilizer market in a couple of years Marc mentioned, they will have to go from essentially no market share to over 4% globally in two years to meet their 2023 projection.
The only person listed among management with a background in environmental studies or relevant experience is the Environmental Compliance & Project Development Manager at the Belleview site and she only has a bachelor's degree. The VP of business development is a guy whose background is in blockchain, cannabis packaging, fracking and real estate. Maybe it's good that he has such varied experience but I'm always a little skeptical of serial entrepreneurs that move from one industry to another instead of being committed to and passionate about a single one.
Finally, and I'm sure you all are aware of this, there is the lawsuit against Marc Hazout and the allegation that not only did he not return $1 million of investors' money in his mining company when the stipulation of the investment was not met, he transferred $750,000 of that money to another company he own which does business in completely different industry, travel.
Like I said, If things are as they seem this looks like the investment of a lifetime but there are things that I would really like to hear your opinions about since you folks know the company better than I do.
Thanks.
Listening to the hearing I am doubtful that this goes into custodianship. Seems like the odds are that they get their stuff together before June 30th.
sorry wrong board.
The registrations were probably just stockholders checking out the app and not people interested in investing in vacation rentals.
Yes it was listed as limited information.
The sad part is they had the chance to build a stable HIV business and provide a much needed alternative to patients but they've failed at that massively. Instead the company's future may be solely staked on underpowered covid trials.
They are in the 8K.
It is really a 9% reduction in mortality. The 24% is the relative reduction. According to the trial results if leronlimab were given to all of the patients on mechanical ventilation, it would save 9% of them.
The most embarrassing part of that story may be that they allotted themselves 11.6 million bonus shares contingent on getting a breakthrough designation for cancer without having the most basic understanding of what is actually required to get such a coveted and difficult to achieve designation.
Is there a lag time between enrollment and the first injection? That's something I've never heard addressed.
The Big Rock SPAC deal is with NeuroRx, the private company that licenses Relief's drug in the US. So the purpose is to IPO NeuroRx. Relief has nothing to do with the SPAC other than it licenses the drug to NeuroRx.
SPACs have been generally used for IPOs so likely aren't an option for Cytodyn.
UK HIV approval for 350mg
A good chance for generating near-term revenue. Relatively small patient population of around 100K but most are in London so marketing to doctors shouldn't be difficult or costly. Even if only 1% used leronlimab that would be about 30M of revenue per year.
The Humanigen brass knew this
I was in the stock as well but got out this summer when during a conference call the science officer said that in the final results they expected "slippage" from their good eIND results on time to recovery. Not a term I was comfortable with.
With the way he started the call I thought he was going to announces retirement and got my hopes up.
Maybe the hope is for a UK HIV licensing deal
The UK HIV population is relatively small but 5% of patients on leronlimab would generate $150 million a year and a deal could bring money up front.
Stuttgart is down 15% currently.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/296.SG/press-releases/
Stopping at interim is rare because it requires a lower p-value to have the trial stopped (the term clinical significance becomes semantics when discussing this), perhaps much lower than at final.
The Haybittle–Peto boundary has been used in other large covid therapeutic trials and it requires <0.001 p-value at interim, as opposed to <0.05 at final, to show relative efficacy, which is very difficult to achieve.
Having the trial stopped at interim was a pie in the sky hope and it's something that biotech investors often put way more faith in than they should after being egged on by management. RLFTF investors are doing the same for their interim at the end of this month and their chief doctor has been stirring the pot for that also, though not nearly to the level of Nader.
Because when it comes to timing he's always wrong.
He needs to go to a bizarro Nader strategy and start doing everything the opposite way of what he normally would.
Misiu, when you say that "efficacy in combo with 350 mg is 81% at 25 weeks,
in monotherapy after 10 weeks on 700 mg, over 90%", does that mean that the reduction in viral load is 81% for 350mg and over 90% for 700mg or do those percentages refer to the amount of patients that respond to the treatment?
So what is the collateral?
I'm very interested.
RLFTF's doctor did a Youtube interview with Dr Yo and said that they had just enrolled their 104th patient in their covid trial, they need 144 total, which means their enrollment has really slowed down in the last month and a half. 104 is what they need for interim analysis so it will take 28 days to get to that and it seems like there is no way they get an EUA off interim with only 104 patients. They are looking at well into Nov or more likely Dec to finish their trial. Most investors thought their trial would be finished within weeks so this was surprising bad news.
Cytodyn just had an investors call and every time the CEO talks the stock drops.