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OT pesevengi, is it business travel ? thanks
absolutely jabs, the company is simply in a good position looking for funds to grow, accumulation and wait. glty
OT Smartmoney : I can't pm here, just call 1-732-247-3300 (Xechem Office) and ask for Howard Becker. glty
We had a decent money flow pouring into the stock last week, I think accumulation was keeping going on and the pps was holding very well with good sentiments and confidence from the investors, these are good conditions imo for a run with anticipation and any positive signs of the next coming events. glta
that sounds good bdb, if they can get these commercial loans and end signal of further dilution, wow, we will be very very good along the time, I am all in too. glty
Bonjour Mike, wake up early today, alot of work, they win 1-0 this week, good start...you know Dr Pandey is in Nigeria, Burg is in Cali and Howard is in NJ, some coordination needs to be done, it's not an excuse but understandable, I think those who can turn this lack of information into their advantage could really win if they can focus on the real targets of the company and put the time on the right side. jmo and glty
me too, lol.
I agree with you Mike, it's a very good opportunity to accumulate now, we know it could run very hard on good news, it always amazes me to see people chasing the stock while you can quietly accumulate at low levels :) glty
OT smartmoney, my impression is it's very probable. glty
John, you get it right, as per my conversation a few days ago, Nexim loan 4Mio is on the good way with much less stricted terms and conditions, that's the one we can expect first. The second loan UPS needs a local bank guaranty and it's not nexim, I will try to get the information. The pleasant suprise could be the pre-purchase of a big amount of the drug from the government, so we have at least 3 chances here to get financing in the short-term to stop further dilution and go for expansion, stay tuned.
if we get the commercial loans, the increased AS will not be used and meaningless, so these commercial loans are the key points and not the increased AS, either you believed in the company to get these loans or not, me think they will get it, the government clearly shows supports for the drug, so it's TIME to backup this support with finance, if they want the drug in all pharmaceutical stores within 9 months and a success export to other countries. glty
that's correct smartmoney, it is known that the PE for pharma companies is very good, even much bigger than 15 for small pharma with good potential and profits. When the company reaches 1Mio patient I can tell you that we will be very wealthy :) glty
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/price-earningsratio.asp
nice opportunity to add more shares today pfrenz...the news this morning was great and unfortunately missed by some investors, the government was at the meeting with WHO and spread out Nicosan, I think they prepare since now the market for Nicosan to be exported to African countries, this proves again that the government is all over the drug and with this support many doors will be opened including the financing from Nexim. jmo and have a nice wk all
I agree for the revenues, you should know that they've already started to sell the drug since last month, will significantly higher increase the production until the completion of the factory, so there is no need for 1 year to wait for 1 year to increase the production, it's a linear growth. Consequently revenues will grow along the time until the new factory is online. First the financing then increase the production and revenues, step by step.
Yep, it is mainly for the financial deals, you know, Dr Pandey will go to Nigeria only for major events, his agenda is to work and close on the Nexim loan (around 4Mio dollars) and the guaranty from a bank for the US Ex-Im bank (not from Nexim, but another bank), and I won't be surprise he will take the opportunity to talk with people from the governement for any contract as suggested on the last news. My take is the Nexim loan will come first and then the US Ex-Im bank. stay tuned and glty
right, I think it's accumulation or cover, they should also know that the news are just around the corner, a good sign in both cases. For longs, it does not matter, for the flippers and accumulation they take the opportunity to buy shares. glty
smart, actually I discussed about that with Howard, he says when the loan is signed they will PR it and don't need Dr Pandey to back in US to do it. glty
gm all, reversal just started last Friday since bottom was reached, buying interest is back, vacation is over, September will be good with a strong market after a poor period, green grass. jmo and glta
I agree with you Mike, they know it and choose a perfect timing to take positions, it help to build the momentum and perfect setup for the coming news. glty
discussing sometimes with these bashers can give an idea how afraid they are to cover for example, I feel for a short squeeeeze on Monday, we should have a real fun next week, perfect setup for the coming news.
you know, this drug is based on herbs and Nigeria is famous for it's biodiversity of plants, costs of labor is very low compared to US, that's why the cost production of this drug is not expensive and the company can keep the price for this drug very cheap 20$ per month per patient to make it affordable to the people in Africa, profit is huge here imo. glty
they can significantly increase the production number until the new factory is online (see last news), you know, with 2 mio patients we will be very very very healthy imo :)
2Mio x 20$ x 12 = 480Mio revenue per year, 50% profit (because low cost labor production and use of herbs) which give 240Mio profit, PE is huuuuuge for small pharma companies especially with good profit, easy PE 15 here which gives 15x240Mio = 3.6B, with 2B shares we have 3.6/2 = 1.8$ pps. I will be very happy with that, the calculation is done with 2Mio patients, there are more than 10Mio patients in Africa, tons of rooooom to go from here. glty
I agree with you shakerz, drug usually means recurrent revenues on regular basis, millions of patients for this drug, it's a fortune, tons of room to go from here.
modicai, that's my impression too, especially when the non-dilutive loans happen, I think the market will react positively for the long-term to these financial news which will be over the momo players and we could have a strong and sustainable move, expansion and revenues will speak for itself along the road. glty
kaki-alex : updated to 16.5Mio shares and some peanuts.
very good check and thoughts mordicai, please keep us updated if you find something new. Thanks
no worry jab, just some discussions. I just believe we could really have some pleasant surprise with the production numbers increasing between now and the completion of the new factory to justify a much higher market cap than the current one. glty
semi, I am enough realistic to know the company can not generate 500Mio of revenue within a year without the factory completed, no. But yes I do believe they can encrease the production numbers to possibly have a market cap of around 200-300Mio until the new factory is completed, and then the sales could really explode with the new factory, the current market is still around 30Mio, it's not bad at all in terms of growth. My intention is to explain there is a possible growth within the time frame of 9-12 month until the new factory is fully completed and it's not a dead money at all imo. glty
semi, if you feel that, sorry, it was not my intention. My opinion is if they can reach 50-100K patients in the short-term the market cap will be much higher than the current one, and keep growing. Btw thanks to correct me for the word, english is not my primary language :)
semi, keep calm, no need to attack, just share different opinions. The news say they can encrease the production (over 20K patients) within the time between now and the completion of the factory, it means encreasing the revenue, I don't know much now, but they expect to do that. That's the growth in the short-term until the new factory is fully completed, it's a real product here and grow with time, not a dream.
not years semi, you could be deadly wrong, read carefully the last news and interpret it : significantly higher encrease in the production over 20K patients, it's a modular approach to build the new factory and encrease the production until full capacity, we could expect pleasant surprise, do your dd. glty
Thanks Smart for your updates, I've told the same by the company about both loans as stated on the news. I am waiting for these two loans, the chances are good with the support from the government for the Nexim loan and the credibility secured by the drug launch for the Us Ex-Im bank. glty
I agree with you. The company has already accomplished many hurdles to arrive at this stage, which is still the very early stage for a pharma company with a drug on the market. The next very important step to accomplish is the financing for expansion, the credibility of the approval&launch of the drug and the support from the government will help to accomplish that. That said, I think the next run will be much more sustainable than the last one because it will be based on financing, revenues and growth, and not based on the hype. I think big players will jump in for long-term investments when the financing loans are accomplished, and not only the momo players like we have the last time. Then, if we believe that this drug will bring relief to millions of patients and if time and patience are our friends we could think of real huge returns along the road. glta
ahi, I can't pm here, no subscription yet, I agree with you to have constructive discussions. glty
Hi Mike, I am fine, just raining in here again in summer time, ouch :)...that are very good updates from an expert in the sector, thanks and please keep us updated with your conversation with him. On the last news Dr Pandey leaves the doors opened by just stating "That number could be significantly higher if,as we expect, we are successful in achieving some incremental increase in capacity between now and the time the full-scale facility is completed". I think they are planning for a modular approach on the new factory by adding new equipments on the new buildings, therefore encreasing the production until the full capacity is reached, we could have nice surprises for the production along the road until the completion. glty
ahi, that's wise...the current dilution comes from the past loans with Chassman, she already dilutes most of her shares because of her agenda, quite normal and we must do with that. Ending dilution is a dream in Pennyland for obvious reasons, most OTC stocks have difficulties to find non-dilutive financing because most of them have no real product to be able to generate revenues. Here we have the chance with this drug on the market, that's the difference, I am expecting the non-dilutive loans to come and it will be a real good signal for the best to come. glty
ransoft, I agree with you about the fact to know the past of the company, it will help to understand our investment, and I think many investors here are aware about the past story but our investments here is all about what will come in the coming future, and we know why we are still here at this level because of this past especially the converstibles from Chassman, so the past have impact on the present. You know, just to clarify their past, before getting the rights to sale the Nicosan drug from NIPDR in 2002, they are almost ready to sale their generic cancer drug Pactlitaxel, start to build a factory for this, but Bristol kills it completely by getting the exclusive rights in US and other countries, so the company is out of cash.
But things are changing now since the company has the approval and the launch, much more credibility to get non-dilutive financing and a drug on the market to finally generate revenues, so I will say the best are to come and that is the most important for our investment here. glty
Arrow, I was going through the approval process with nafdac and feedbacks from person in Nigeria, the fact is the company will not receive the approval so early without the government to support the company, not because the product is not efficient but they submitted the file only in March and the process of the approval has been speed up under the pressure of the government. Guys, this government is all over on the success of this drug for obvious reasons, with that reason I cam very confident here. glta
sure yellow, the government has put pressure on the company to speed up, you know the launch has been pushed and scheduled by the government, it speaks for itself, they want it asap, and it sounds good to me. Any partnership could speed up the process but have to share the pie, or keep all the pie but time is longer. There is a possibility for the company to encrease the production by adding new equipments to the new buildings when they are up, until the full-capacity is reached. We will see, any good surprises could happen now as they have the launch and the pressure from the government to have this drug available for many milliosn of patients asap.
yellow, actually I did discuss that with the company, they say if there is a reasonable partnership with acceptable conditions they will consider it, but on the other hand they are also working on enough bank financings to be able to go alone, what they say make sense to me. As you said, either way we win. glty