Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
It is holding SP down. No one likes litigation, more uncertainty than anything we’ve faced thus far
Awesome. Glad we ticked down on that...
Why? Anything new?
Wouldn’t all hell break loose if she dismissed the induced infringement? Or can someone clarify what’s going on there?
Ah thanks for reminding me!
BB cannot settle? What does this even mean?
That’s like saying “reduce it results will shoot us up, then back down.” We’re up 650% from $3.
Look at our low last January. Look at our mid year low. We’re not going to go straight to $50, but we’re on the up and up. Even at this price we’re up 25% last 3 months. How do you expect the stock to act? There’s no reason it gets to $30 or $40 until real money believes it. Retail don’t move the price, we’re just along for the ride. The shorts don’t have unlimited to sell. Look at short interest it’s no longer growing. There are more funds/banks long than short.
Litigation is scary to everyone because you cannot price that in. After this, sales speculation is more what people like investing on and should bode well. Short term of course BO premium is best, but I think management is doing well and we’ll be sitting pretty this quarter.
Hopefully some followed me! Anyone active on this board?
I think Azn is a great European partner at this point. Seems like a no brainer for them to scrap epinova and replace it with amarin (probably relatively cheaply to be honest, with royalties of course) in Europe. Imagine if they would have had a decently competent consult them tell them that before they spent over half a billion on their trial...you can buy the rights to amarin Europe for 2-4x the price a failed trial will cost you.
With acasti and epinova out, it seems almost impossible we don’t see BO offers before H2 this year. The more the better, bring em on! I think your number was $210 a share?
We have fda approval on a wide label so that’s irrelevant at this point
Mtnb price shouldn’t move as much. Still a long shot but more unique. Always has been the biggest threat to amarin in my mind, but hardly a pimple on a body
So Oppenheimer should raise our target to at least $9.50 now and drop acasti to $6? Haha what a clown.
I think everyone’s point is over the last few weeks we’ve seen amarins odds go from 75-80% to 90-95% of winning. There was always a chance generics win, litigation is always risky, but given new info and decisions that have come out the past few weeks, it seems amarins odds have improved.
Things like this create cheap buy points. People are irrational and over pay often (or sell their shares too low) to mitigate risk.
There are always an equal number of long and short contracts, every buyer needs a seller and visa versa. Maybe you mean retail position on a certain line is equally long and short?
Too real. I haven’t bought an option since November 2018 haha this thing has had no legs since then. Will in the future, but I can’t predict when that will be
Accumulating cheap shares? Who? Everyone’s been saying that on this board for over a year, so at this point tell me who has bought a large stake for cheap and keeps buying. Pretty confused about this
I assume 335 and 336 are fda communications? What was 334?
Marzan thinks settlement and buyout in Monday, just wanted to remind everyone he called it first
I was making fun because you said “do to” instead of “due to” and then called them stupid. Grammar police here
I’d hedge with S&P puts, most liquid and highly traded index options BY FAR. Most funds buy 1.5-3 month out S&P puts for fund protections (even biotech funds will mostly hedge with this and some IBB).
If you own stock and want to hedge, I would buy a risk reversal to minimize hedging costs (buy 3% down put, sell 2% up call for even money or something of the sort). Puts have more premium so will have to pay a bit more for the equidistant put, but that’s probably the most popular hedging strategy.
Example right now-
Buy a march 310 put in spy, sell a march 332 call to finance it. If you own and S&P then you shouldn’t need margin (if you are just hedging your shares). If you own Dow or qqq can do similar strategies, I just mention S&P since it’s the cheapest to do in terms of execution cost
This is why I keep my position and sell covered calls. I don’t think we’ll shoot up fast without a BO, but believe we should appreciate 30%+ per year for at least the next 2-3 years if we GIA. I am market hedged for a big recession, so I think this is pretty safe otherwise. When we pop up I sell calls, when we sell off I sell puts. I’ve got called away at 21, 23, 24 for like 120k shares total, but can now buy them back or, better yet, sell puts to buy them back and collect money. Trying my best to hold on to share position and just collect option premium.
Eventually we will get a BO offer, and will jump on that, but if it’s not accepted we will then fizzle back down. I only have 30-40% of my shares in short calls now, so I’m fine either way. $20 is low for pps, but healthy. We’re still up 50% from this time last year haha. People like price to be low so they can buy in Jan and show good end of year profit. Then sell in December, rinse and repeat. Our advantage is, we get long term cap gains
“Do to his stupidity” haha based on that spelling/grammar, you should replace “his” with “my.”
There have been no meaningful lawsuits, all smoke. Not sure how those have been bad at all. I think JT and co are doing great. Hopefully he gets his 100m and we trade up to $35-40 soon. I’ve said it before, he has more interest in the stock going up than any of we do financially. The amount of shares he gets yearly is small relative to the amount he owns. He has the rights to about 10m shares. I don’t think he’s trying for a 5% down move so he can get his options that much cheaper. Makes no sense relative to this total investment. When we raised last time and the stock went from 21 to 12 in a week, JT lost 90m dollars. I think he’s rooting for our short term and long term pps, I don’t know your finance experience but I can tell you from my experience at the fund, pnl bouncing by millions or tens of millions at a time (even if it’s not my own) is not good for the health. Couldn’t imagine 90m of my own money disappearing in a week or 2, no matter how much I had.
It’s criminal, but I doubt they have any liability. Writer of the article should be investigated. Not sure why anyone believes them but I admittedly fall for their stuff sometimes as well. They have some good stuff, and some stuff like this. Crazy that TD ameritradr posted it though, that should definitely be looked into.
Stiefel analyst-
Guys he’s an idiot. They said they plan on spending more for inventory, and he said they should be knocked for that...it means they want to ramp sales faster. Worst case is they don’t ramp as quickly as they want...then costs are lower for the rest of the year! Duh! Since we have 60-70% margins, buying 250m of inventory means they are buying 600-700m of vascepa in the first quarter! I think this is a sign sales will ramp up and they’re preparing...no way is this a negative at all. That’s like saying buying a 5m house to flip for 10m with low costs is a waste of 5m dollars. He is ass backwards. Let’s all wait for good news from the court and strong scripts, everything else is just noise
Seems fake, a week ago they updated with L and GL “NF” and vascepa tier 3 and tier 4 (depending on size of pill)
They have total like 60m shares with options and warrants. I think the volume would be a little higher. Unless you think they would randomly unload 15% of their position and bring the stock down 15%, still owning 1 billion dollars worth.
How did this idea even come to your head? It’s not very thought out or logical
This guy is just a badger. Been saying well get down there for a while and trying to find reasons in anything.
He’s a huge Acasti bull who’s probably scared about their trials so wants to make amarin look bad as well
Wow this is a pretty hard bashing FUD article. I’ve never heard of those guys, but also never looked into patent litigation.
After reading the court docs, doesn’t it seem like the court disagrees with what they are saying? They make it sound like win or lose, we’ll just have new andas being filed...this is garbage and FUD at its finest IMO. Probably have beef with getting their butt kicked by amarin at some point in time
Now I can sleep at night! This was very helpful and reassuring. I appreciate both sides of the argument, but also like to hear that amarin should be highly the favorite!
Real question- could you use stock price and change in SOC to prove this was unprecedented?
25-26+ I’d say. Def our days under $22 would be over. This is the last uncertainty in the company, then we’d just need guidance to pick us up (we won’t get to 30 until our 12 month projections are well over 1b IMO)
I don’t know if you’ve seen anchorman, but I’d love to see Will Ferrell represent the OTC fish oils and have him argue with bhatt.
Bhatt- we reduce death 25%, heart attack stroke, etc
Will Ferrell comes out- our fish oil works 5% of the time, every time. We even have flavored capsules so you don’t have to taste the rancid spoiled ones
Etc
To me OTC fish oils are such a joke now. It’s criminal to have people think (which 90% of people still do) that regular fish oil is healthy and should be taken to reduce events. That’s literally contradictory to statins, as they raise the main bio marker statins are trying to lower (I know statins reduce inflammation etc, but on paper regular fish oils literally fight the reduction of cholesterol statins are trying to accomplish!)
Maybe BP likes OTC as the DHA raises cholesterol, providing more of a need for statins?
If others can sell so can teva. Once market is open to any generics teva is allowed to sell. Not sure where your argument is coming from
Would be weird to release results like this...and if there was a leak then info was really bad.
Interested if you bought this because you believe in krill or because it was an amarin hedge? I don’t own this or matinas, but I personally think that’s a better hedge/spec buy.
Best of luck to you but I’m like BB- want this to fail just because of the Oppenheimer guy. Hopefully news is bad but you can get out at $3 before it crashes and burns haha
You can exercise your options until 5-5:30 depending on the broker you use. Would always assume 5pm EST to be safe, but everyone technically should allow you to until 5:15pm at least.
If expiring within 1c of the option, always check with your broker as different brokerage groups have different policies, but anything over 1c in the money at 4pm closing should be auto exercised.
Never exercise options early (this has caveats, but none retail investors should worry about, just be careful when you trade deep in the money options and something looks too good to be true) unless there is a dividend, then read up on how to trade div stocks options differently than normal (involves math and some guessing unfortunately).
Lol good luck to those long and Oppenheimer...not
We have 600m cash and expenses are no where near that high. We have years of cash to burn, this is a short sell vs the last overhang (litigation). Price action is dumb, I was sad my calls got taken last week but now have firepower to buy back after my 4 week holding period is up. I don’t care about short term price action except to say this is great to get another chance at cheap shares. No way we should be below last years highs that’s silly
I can’t find this anywhere on Bloomberg or the internet
Why do you think that? Baker bros own a bunch of that too I believe
I think if there’s a good settlement opportunity it’s better for all parties, yes