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I was thinking of saying the same thing but didn’t bother to. If they don’t understand the basics of the SAP they shouldn’t be rambling on why NWBO is in trouble.
they've made ~$5M in the last month from warrant conversions, they're fine.
disagree. DI has said they're not waiting on anything and are trying to publish & PR as soon as possible. they're behind schedule on Sawston and they're behind schedule on publication, and will PR both as they come.
Why I think we'll be at a much higher share price in less than two months:
1. We broke out of 2020's flag about 4/5 of the way through by touching top of pennant, fading and hitting bottom, then launching out. We're now about 4/5 of the way through this bigger 2021 flag and just hit the top of the pennant then faded and are on bottom.
2. Although we're officially late on Sawston certification, chances are good that we have fixed / are fixing any issues and will be up and running in the next month (or two max). This could be a strong enough catalyst to launch us from current flag.
3. Even though it's frustrating that management chose to tie TLD to a publication, we are now closing in on the average time (~13 mo) for an oncology article to be published from data lock. I realize this is NOT the average time from lock to TLD, but we are in a scenario where TLD is married to publication, and so we are now in the zone of possible publication +TLD, and based on averages the chances of seeing something within two months is solid. Anticipation alone could launch us from flag.
4. The looming Nov 1 loans will be over soon and any fears of a dip from a raise will be gone.
5. The Lancet article was huge, both in terms of showing regulatory acceptance to NWBO's approach but also if it were the start of a succession of related articles, the gap between connected publications (even if not in Lancet) shouldn't be too large. IMO, this is another indication that our article will come in the next ~two months.
Most of us have been rewarded by our patience in the past, and I think patience will pay off big again by year's end.
The bait and switch, I assume, being “data by end of Sept 2020! … wait actually at least 14 months later than that with no deadline or communication at all, or explanation why.” I’m a long to the very end, but have to admit that’s a bait and switch.
I agree, a deadline would be nice. If not publication by, say, March 1st (I think it’ll come out way before then), then a TLD PR.
Has anyone broached this idea with DI?
no, but the average publication time is. and they've chosen to wait to give TLD to publication. that might be where you have an issue, but given that they're waiting for pub to announce TLD, we're not behind schedule. and we all know why they might choose to wait for publication to announce TLD. this has been rehashed 100 times in the past year.
do you think a substantial move upward could happen sans news? (and price be sustained)
there's just a constant selling pressure which our buying pressure doesn't match except when we get a pump from traders, and even then it's only short-lived. we need NEWS for sustained upward movement, otherwise the warrant shedding will always pull us back down.
warrants. tens of millions of warrants.
they’re not waiting for the six year mark, that makes no sense. they’re not waiting for anything further, they’re going as fast as they can (which is very slow).
but we all know TLD and publication will come at some point, probably between Nov–Jan imo, and when it does we know we’re meeting most if not all endpoints. a solid investment at $1.20 considering where it will be afterwards. pretty simple.
No reason to be scared now, we’ve just entered the zone (Oct–Jan imo) of when publication is most likely.
i have become increasingly confident to the point that i’m no longer anxious about when TLD comes. this is an industry-changing trial and everything must be done right and cannot be rushed. i’m comfortable holding to the end no matter where share price goes between now and then.
agreed diver. can you post the source on the 14.8 months though?
huh? NWBO stated day one from data lock that their route of announcing TLD is through a publication. publications take, on average, a year from receiving data. we’re just now entering the window of when TLD could be given to us.
i think that would need some sort of catalyst
agreed. especially after that Lancet article, I’m confident enough that TLD will be positive that current share price doesn’t bother me too much (as long as we stay above $1). when TLD comes, which could be tomorrow or two months from now, ten-cent fluctuations won’t matter at all
that MACD cross is pretty steep
I don't understand why someone would sell now, when we're just entering the zone of possible TLD. Given average publication times and assuming data was received from statisticians last Nov, we are likely to see TLD anywhere from about now to January--so why freak out and sell right when it's getting likely we see the big news?
Agreed. Those snippets say it all. Nov – Jan Lancet publication imo. Looking back everything makes sense and leads us to this.
Did the Lancet article read like a scam?
yes, they found a way to be funded 15+ years, but couldn’t figure it out for the last month before TLD and went bankrupt… lol
would make total sense
omg you made an investing mistake get over it. learn how to move on.
and higher lows
Exactly. It’s the people that don’t understand how this works that come up with the conspiracy theories.
This is correct. Everyone else (Anders etc) saying otherwise don't know the space and are just making things up because there is an information vacuum. Big picture: things are progressing as they are supposed to, albeit slower than we hoped. Sawston approval October, publication & TLD Dec-Jan IMHO.
Recent Nature article mentions DCVax-L--anyone have access?
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41388-021-02010-1
agreed. traders thinking it's stalled and getting out.
All this talk about Advent stealing our thunder (and funding) is baloney. Random speculative theories like this is what you get when we're given a year of silence, 365 days to stew in our own thoughts. Management is sticking to the plan--we just have to sit tight. Tough to do, but hyping nonsensical theories like this will lead to unjustified mutiny. There's a ton of antsy energy here but channeling it into these ideas is unproductive--what's really the point in drumming all this up?
Ex, it’s time to get in. Sure you missed at .14 but 1.40 is still low in the long run. Climb aboard and enjoy the ride!
new Advent head of quality assurance--was this already posted?
Cristina Trento joins Advent Bio as Head of Quality Assurance.
— rj (@sharpie510) September 22, 2021
Prior position was Quality Director, Cell Therapy Unit at King's College Hospital, so she must be aware of #DCVax-L and confident in accepting this new role.😉$nwbo #glioblastoma $mrk $bmyhttps://t.co/R6eYZw2OPU
Many of us have been waiting since 2015 or before. There have been many false starts. It has been frustrating. But having data locked last Oct, we are actually on the final stretch.
Per JAMA the average oncology publication takes 300 days. Assuming we received data back from statisticians early Dec 2020, that puts the expected publication date NOW, or a few weeks away given any Covid delays. I've always been very cautiously optimistic and haven't gotten giddy at every pump--I've been let down too many times before. I've accumulated from early on all the way through the .15 days, and sit at 320,000 shares. I really think we get TLD before Thanksgiving, xmas at the latest--and it could be any day. And especially with the changed endpoints and new regulatory environment, I am very confident that results will be positive.
The bears pounding the "this is a scam you'll never see TLD" narrative is just garbage. LP has lost family members to GBM and wants this to be successful more than we do.
We're all antsy. This is the final loading zone. Hold tight.
if you see the CDMO as a solid safety net and possible drug approval as catalyst for huge upside then why are you so bearish overall?
true, but that lurking structure is unknowable, no?
and the 1.34 wall has fallen.
Thanks ATL. When do you expect the Sawston update?
got another 40k today, think we're crawling back up from here
Why not include the bottom tails from the last three months in your flag?