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ps-
with the ad line and the daily up/dn volume where they are, a eod decline is not in the cards. the only mitigating thing is that since volume is so light, a major burst could change the tone, but not likely atleast today.
well probably end the week where we started it.
excpt that options tme value will have decayed somewhat if not significantly on the otm puts
something is definitely up with the volaitility index on the compq. telegraphing a big move here. either to the upside or a failure leading to a slide. but loooking like the former at present, taking out it's 200 ma and following the vix and spx. usually the other way around.
well - i cant help but notice the low voluem consolidation this past week immediately after a 5% up week. barely have touched the 38% retrace level.
also taking the form of flag/consolidation pattern
also above the 50,20, and 13 ema's
this in a seasonally very weak time for the markets but
occcasionally do get get a markup next week for TOM.
have been doing well scalping calls in this month long trend/countertrend or whatever it is that were seeing.
wayy tooo manyyy bears out there still.
can anyone explain why or how we can't have a 5 wave advance here/ why we cant be a wave 4 consolidation pattern now/?
one has to
well
we go our pop.
38 calls up from 1.5 to 1.8 this am.
may exit some of them here/
anyo9n know waht up with the vxn this morning?
very serious divergence if it holds up suggests new highs to come...need to falg this carefully at major resistance
do not know if at present - now looking for drop into early next week?
shows that it is worth your while
the fact that you cant just downlaod it...
takes a bit of effort and thusly suggests some merit.
not everyone will be reading the data
wouldnt be a bad idea ust to keep a running tabs on it for the board?
unfortunately, there needs to be follow through the next day.
the possibility of an island reversal then comes into play.
no follow through, no dice.
ps- are you saying we dont go down till monday? or that we dont rally affterwords? r that we do not go up tomorrow moringn?
not that im right r wotng, but i find a game plan is good to have and then let the market take me in or out of positions accordingl to what is happening on the ground. helps me monetize opportunites and stay out of trouble ;
ie; if plan is not playing out, stay out, come up with dirferent plan and stay out of market until plan starts working...
well
good chance we gap up tomorrow and fade in to close, bottom short-term on monday. up next week.
thats my story and im sticking to it! (:~>)
interesting post.
looks like they portend atleast an opportunity to get out for a profit in a 3-5 day span with puts.
weems multiple r3's can portend a total collapse or reversal in that time frame, and so perhaps it merits closer attention to s/r levels and volume at those time frames as well.
do you have data for the past serveral years on this
thx
thx bud.
will check it out.
ps what is a good read in a short summary on ewaves? any rec's
could morph at any moment youre right.
will have to see action a t the top and bottom of channels and volume assd with it.
one thing flags tend to have a drop in volume as you move out along the pennant.
spent all day today and yesterday in cash.
waiting of gap to fill and will reassess from there.will possibly look of rentry long then short.
almost an h$s as well.
would like to see 37.60 ish.
well see what happens...
goin nowhere.
roll of the dice, but with apologies to caesar, the die have not yet been cast.
got sept 38 calls at 1.0 on dip.
out at 1.05. a small profit booked.
now looking for more oportnities.
too much volume and breadth on advancing side for tank job into close, however volume is lacking. may bode well for shorting tomorrow if market pops. unfortanuately, much of this consolidation occuring in a manner which suggests somewhat higher prices. also way too many sites bearish right now. they all think its a chip shot. has to get one concerned.
speaking of chip shots- ned to go work some more on the short-game! adios gentlemen till tomorrow... or atleast later this evening
dude you da man. 36.20 is a long way off
lets hope youre right
ps -
wahts your dwonside target for iii and rebound for iv
reason i asked is that ive learned not to go against pokersam.
but is he giving the green light to 39.20 atleast anyway?
sould make atleast alittle change on some calls and get better prices or puts.
plus some of those idexes may be making new highs and that may change the dynmaimc astleast that is why i asked about upside invalidagtin targets. gotta look at all angles anyway.
off to play some golf to day. beautiful day in ny and not too many like it left this year, i fear...
whats the significance of the gold coin?
is anyone else seeing a potential bear flag on the sub-daily and daily charts on the cubes?
poker- morning
still wondering what whould constitute a possible reversal or revision of said ewave pattern? specifically what upper target level would trigger such a revision?
thx
please keep your ot posts ot-
for what it is worth-
the real thugs are the rnc/bushies wasting 300 billion plus on jack squat the past 5 years.
thx
goodone!
not asking if the projection is correect, just asking if it is hypothetically possible for that to happen and if it did, what would be the status of your wave count/assessment.
just wondering -
is it not possible that we are in a 5 wave advance currently, instead of an abc advance which youre saying culminated on friday?
morning all.
out of sept 39 puts now at .95 in at .7 last week.
will consider loading up on retest of 2164 on compq if it fails.
poker- not to throw a wrenchin the ewave thing, as im certainly not an expert. but- can you not have a 5 wsave advance and bbe in the middle of wave 3 up here?
thx
st
morning all
may be bouncing off s1 at 38.45 as well as burge support at 38.38.
next stop 38.71 or 38.17.
dont diasagree.
question is when is the inflection point, and when is the reentry date?
i/m thinking tomorrow afternoon and wednesday 22nd to the end of week for eentry long.
one thing is to look for wconvergence of ma's below the ramp. there should be a retracement to the ma's confluence prioro to the next move reentry. the 13/5-/20 are in similar range and i expect them to get hit this time around as well.
well just have to see.
unloading a few calls from this am .
the oher thing is that isdont se any tails on the candles yet, maybe today but i look for
a - tails
b - shortened body ( dropping volatility )
for early tip offs
poker-
im trying to say that the move may run till tomorrow morning at which time there may be a slight indication of waning momentum, followed by a potentially stong corrective move starting monday the next week.
may be asking for too much for it to happen today
watch for the 2 pm chowda move/ramp.
interesting if you recall january when similar move up was noted.
happened a week prior to op exp, and that week was gangbusters all the way till thursday 's close.
friday was a small bearish dark cloud typ candle, and the next week (op exp) was nasty.
may have to wait for monday for a possible reversal uf unknown dimensions
would look to 50ma and 20ma at the time.
i may have mentioned i past-
that in uptrending market a trin of 1 or thereabouts is consistent with a continuation.
this particularly if the a/d line is advancing.
today, for instance the ad line is strongly positive.
so for volume to be as postive, the trin will still be 1 -
iwh you have initiation of a trend, you need really low trin. as it matures, the trin starts rising but the market will keep moving up.
it seems that
you need either very heavy volume with a poorly correlatiing ad - high trin type of day or a low volume flat ad line and flat volume day with a trin of 1 folloped by a higher trin day around the end to signal a move back.
compq at 2165 now. top of 2104 - 2164 trading range. 2240 is next stop if it keeps moving or the next trading range.
qqqq now exactly 10% up off bottom from july .
actually by my read it appears in april of 04 it did not go straight there. but the macd was declining from a high. it is rising from a low right now.
yea well very theoretical but
poker format with sightly different targets possible. if the sp goes to make a nomonal new high, the qqqq will have to go higher. but relative strength will tell the tale.
semis looking strong again today. wont bet against them
well
argument against rally is that ist is just too improbable...
seasonals
presidential cycle
economy
blah blah blah
market dies what it wants.
if its going higher, it will telegraph it.
right now the h&s looks impressive.
remember even in 2000 the s&p topped in september 6-8 monhths in to bear market. while the qqqq never got close. topping at about 100 from a high of 120.
gotta watch the trend bias. which means no down = more upside.
no downside without a drop in ad line at this point.
i think we may go to 39.04 on this move before this week.
have now hedged sept puts with a few aug calls and will flip at target. otherwise will unload calls at turn before then.
out of all calls .
slight profit from yesterdays ramp up.
now in some sept 39 puts at 1.0
looking at 38.34 for support. and pker's chart
morning all.
its really about hte tail wagging the dog as in the case that prices impulse past the boyz threshold/collar, the concept of delta is significant.
usually they sell options to make incremental monthly gains, on extablished holdings, and under normal volatility patterns it works great.
when short-term price volatility periodically exceeds model expectations, read past the collar, they hav to get delta - neutral. like a bookie adjsting the spread before a game due to excessive betting on one side. the bookie and the options seller always make money, or do not lose regardless who wins. that is the key. being able to adjust the spread or positions relative to the max pain is key.
instead of the normal case when the stock position is the main concern, around which options transactions are perfomed, the options position becomes the temporary primary concern, and stock transactions (or complex sythetic positions with other options)are conducted opposite the options positions to make the seller whole or delta-neutral.
if the market takes off past the collar, they have to buy because theyre heavily fading the usual up move.
if the market tanks past the collar, they have to sell.
when this happens, the market usually corrects such dislocation early the next week with a retracement.
already passed it on the way up.
at any point at or after about the week before, it seems to be a zero mark, but thereafter, the market does what it does
thats my take on it
true.
btwe- just bought a few sept 39 puts at 1 in sympathy!
also have some aug 37 calls from 2 pm ramp job at slight profit.
may gap up again tomorrow if it closes strong.
got 2 posts remaining...
running out of posts, but
i really admired how you hung in there with the sugust calls, converted to september and made a ton- abuot 20k by my estimate.
so give back is fair play.
i sometimes tend to hedge because it
1/ allows me to see the shorter term more clearly without a bias-i keep converting one to the other
2/ can keep track of prices and enter more precision.
comes at a price- sometimes forget the biger picture with all the fancy footwork.
should have been much heavier on this up move this week
lots of trend following systems will go long at this point and more liquidity will come to the markets in the shorter term cycle
live and learn, i guess!
poker-
you could hedge and buy calls against it for august deep in the money.
essentialy get closer to delta neutrality.
that way, if the market goes up, you'll get more profit on the calls, less reduction of the theta on the sept puts.
then convert that to puts at a dicounted rate this week or next week
in the end youll make money. if the direction is correct.
as it stands-
ndx if it closes and breaks above 1550 - quite bullish. at present at 1554. next stop really 1630 or about 39.50 or so .
sox looks very bullish has a lot of room before next resistance level
russell bulllish with room.
s$p bullish too.
nya and dow just below major resistance
may not drop today. too much breadth again
today or by friday?
they may be front running the 2 pm chowda
im thinking along the same lines- drop tomorrow to fill the gap ultimately and sideways on friday/monday.
ramp on tuesday?