Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Now this is scary stuff -- the last tweet from "afrezzaguy" was a month ago:
I have used stuff over a year expired without refrigeration zero issues. Done lots of experiments trying to get the stuff to go bad-haven’t found a way yet except wind and water
— AFREZZA GUY (@Afrezzaguy) July 2, 2018
It's an anniversary! Yes, a year ago MNKD announced the restart of the pediatric trial.
Now consider that they only required 46 patients and that the first part of the trial was going to be the very simple pharmacokinetics aspect which would require a glucose clamp for at most a few hours.
Best I can tell, since then there has not been word one about any progress in the trial. Is it really all that difficult to recruit 46 patients over the course of a year?
Perhaps parents just don't want to expose their children to the risks of lung damage and cancer.
Really sad the company's at a point where you see posts on a MNKD forum containing afrezza ads and it's probably the only place on earth where anyone might be remotely interested.
Please, posts from the lunatic fringe known as proboards are about as useless as teats on a bull.
Your problem is that no one considers any news from MNKD "positive" anymore. Announcing the commercials, the ADA meeting presentations, the institutional investors presentation, the Tanner agreement -- none of them had the slightest effect.
The only news that had any effect was the announcement of dilution to meet the July Deerfield payment and similar news is due in a couple of weeks regarding a similar payment.
If that 4.8 is net revenues, it would represent a sequential decrease from the 5.2 million reported last quarter -- not very good, right?
But the number that you really should look at is "Gross-to-Net Adjustments" as a percentage of "net revenues."
That represents how much money MNKD had to spend on "wholesaler distribution fees and prompt pay discounts," "patient discount and co-pay assistance programs," "rebates and chargebacks," and "product returns."
Last quarter it was 34%. I'm curious to see what happens to it in this new 10-Q.
Excuse me but approving a plastic tube with a hole in it is not quite the same as approving an over priced that drug that no one in an impoverished country needs.
Well, the thing is, everyplace requires approval for marketing one way or another.
Now it's almost a year since Brazil's Biomm submitted the "registration dossier to ANVISA," yet still no word on when afrezza might get approved.
How long will it take to get approval in all those "regions" where Tanner is supposed to distribute? And who will pay to get those approvals?
Seems like it would have made more sense to get approvals first and then get a distributor -- wouldn't you agree?
One of the funny things about the Tanner announcement:
"The agreement names Tanner as a distributor of Afrezza® outside of the United States in regions the product is not yet registered."
...is that afrezza is approved nowhere outside of the United States. So where exactly are these "regions" is Tanner supposed to distribute the stuff?
Market makers taking advantage of chumps speculating that MNKD might finally announce something positive at the CC. Happens practically every quarter and practically every quarter the stock price takes a dive after the CC.
Maybe Mir should call the Red Cross, I hear they're good at handling disasters.
The first news hits in just 3 more days when MNKD reveals how much they have had to spend to move afrezza and how much they have had to use their ATM -- that's bound to cause some excitement.
Then practically on top of that comes the news about how much dilution was required and at what price to satisfy the 3 million dollars owed to Deerfield.
And that will hardly have sunk in but what shareholders get to anticipate what will be needed to pay Amphastar the 4.7 million dollars it's due..
And after that, they can wonder how on earth MNKD plans to meet their obligation to have 20 million in cash at the end of September.
Indeed, major dilution always makes for big news -- especially with those huge discounts MNKD has to offer to convince anyone to do a deal.
Because Tinker Bell is going to come and sprinkle magic fairy dust on MNKD shares so they'll be able to fly.
Yeah, that was probably the real reason he was invited to that Damon Dash movie premiere:
https://imgur.com/a/xklnA
Pretty funny:
"Today's humor comes courtesy "sportsrancho" on proboards MNKD forum which she posted a link to a tweet from one "Peter Kourtis" that was aimed at the Mannkind CEO:
Mike I met you in Chicago a while back and I have to say I never met a more passionate and determined CEO to take us across the goal line. Thank you so much! We will prevail!
— PETER K (@KOURTISPETER) July 13, 2018
Speaking of making "headway," did "VDEX" ever make any:
"Pray tell, what exactly makes you think the "VDEX model" is working? They have been open over two YEARS now and:
1) Facebook:
https://www.facebook.com/vdexdiabetes/
"412 Total likes 429 Total Followers" -- practically every one guaranteed to be a MNKD shareholder.
2) Twitter:
https://twitter.com/nm_vdex?lang=en
"Tweets 42 Following 91 Followers 29 Likes 14" and remove the spammers and you see that practically every one left is a MNKD shareholder.
3) Youtube:
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC6e795onSqaUoxqPa5QDDsQ/videos
A grand total of SIX videos that were posted 10 months ago and the average number of views per video is maybe about 200 -- practically ALL of whom were likely MNKD shareholders.
Go to ANY of the popular diabetes forums like tudiabetes and see if you can find ANYONE who has actually USED a Vdex clinic. If you're successful, I GUARANTEE you will have found a MNKD shareholder.
They don't even CALL themselves "Vdex Diabetes" anymore:
http://npino.com/primary-clinic/1174019368-vdex-medical-group---cheng/
"Vdex Medical Group - Cheng (VDEX MEDICAL GROUP - CHENG) is a Internal Medicine Clinic in Canoga Park, California."
And Dr. Cheng is a family practice doc:
https://www.healthgrades.com/physician/dr-courtney-cheng-g9m4b
"Dr. Courtney Mizuhara-Cheng, DO is a family medicine specialist in Santa Monica,
CA and has been practicing for 8 years. She graduated from Western U Hlt Sci Col Osteo Med Of The Pacific in 2007 and specializes in family medicine, osteopathic, manipulative therapy, and more."
Vdex clearly FAILED as a diabetes clinic and HAD to convert to a primary care practice to STAY in business.
Face it, Vdex was just as big a FAILURE as afrezza and Mannkind."
The reality is that insurance coverage has not significantly improved since Sanofi left. Practically anywhere you look, afrezza is at best tier 3 requiring prior authorization. Worse, last time I checked a couple of months ago, Medicare still has not got around to approving coverage for afrezza even though MNKD said they would try for it some two years ago.
There are basically two reasons why the current situation won't change:
1) On a clinical basis, higher tier placement would require a large study involving hundreds of type 1s and lasting at least 6 months and prove beyond a shadow of a doubt that afrezza is superior to other RAAs. That would be require hundreds of millions of dollars that MNKD simply doesn't have.
2) On a price basis, afrezza could attempt to gain better tier placement, but then they would have to compete with the big pharmas whose wealth and power allow them to control the insurers and pharmacy benefits managers.
As far as Tanner goes, that is just throwing the starving dogs -- aka shareholders -- a bone. Did you notice that there has been practically no news from MNKD in the month since that institutional investor conference they held?
Nothing about progressing with treprostinil. Nothing about the alleged term sheet. Nothing about new commercials. Nothing about new management hires. Nothing about giving away cell phone holders at hockey games.
None of the typical pre-earnings hype. Why? Because they are literally down to scraping the bottom of the barrel -- they have nothing left to offer except the upcoming dilution to pay Deerfield 3 million by the end of August and to try and raise at least 20 million by the end of September.
"Further insight from "matt" on proboards MNKD forum:
"The term "distributor" is exceedingly vague and that is part of the confusion. I used to work for a huge multi-line distributor in the industry and we moved product at a gross margin from 4% to 42%. We handled the 4% stuff mainly because our customers wanted us to, but we put in zero effort into sales and the manufacturer was responsible for any and all promotion. Likewise, our payable terms on that 4% business were so generous that we essentially had no working capital tied up. Conversely, on the 42% business we did almost everything but manufacture the product. The manufacturer was a tiny company without any infrastructure of their own, and we both did nicely under the arrangement.
If Tanner is like most of the distributors exporting to foreign countries without a dedicated deal they are more like the first business; more order takers than salesmen. They don't spend any time or money promoting the drug, but if orders come in then they will fill them. Just doing the customs paperwork for drug exports is a headache so they earn their commission from that alone, but don't expect them to go door to door promoting the drug; that is not the structure of the business.
Most often their business revolves around physicians who have seen a product while visiting a medical meeting in the US or elsewhere, or a wealthy patient that wants to try the drug, but it is still MNKD that has to make the sale. If MNKD gets a sales request, they will pass it along to Tanner.
The other thing to keep in mind is that in most of the countries where companies like Tanner do business there are strict, very strict, currency controls. Getting an order is one thing, but getting paid is something quite different and just a few weeks of delay getting paid a hyperinflationary country will wipe out the value of the sale in economic terms.
Most of these sales have to be done under a commercial letter of credit or are prepaid on a Visa card linked to a US / EU / Swiss bank. Wealthy patients have foreign bank accounts and free access to hard currency, but most people living in these places do not. This is situation normal for international distributors so they provide value since they know how to deal with foreign monetary instruments, but they do not have enough margin in the business to assume the risk of non-payment so they have to be tough on payment guarantees; many orders simply never get filled because of credit issues.
So it is a mixed bag; it never hurts to have more distributors that are willing to handle your product so long as the distributor has their act together and are not more headache than they are worth. It does make Afrezza available to a lot more patients and that is a good thing.
However, be realistic about what it takes to do business in most parts of the world because often it is not pretty. Expect some incremental sales, but don't expect Tanner sales to contribute meaningfully to the income statement."
Ha! Asking a Mannkind bull to be "realistic" is about as UNrealistic as anyone can POSSIBLY be!"
All I see is red outnumbers green by -- what? -- maybe a thousand to one?
Shucks! Went to lunch and missed that dive to $1.51. Oh, well, still a couple of hours left.
LOL! From "awesomeo" on proboards MNKD forum regarding MNKD/Tanner agreement:
"Also, their "About Us" page highlights 2014 distribution.
COUNTRIES SUPPLIED: 75
ITEMS SHIPPED: 6,500
CUSTOMER SATISFACTION: 5,000
First off, it's extremely outdated. Second, those numbers are incredibly low and the "Customer Satisfaction" metric makes absolutely no sense.
What kind of partnership is this?"
Evidently, he needs some instruction in putting lipstick on the pig ahead of earnings.
Now that's cruel:
When sports teams lose championship games but the “winner” t-shirts are already printed, they get shipped off to Africa or other undeveloped countries as charity.
— Adam Feuerstein ✡️ (@adamfeuerstein) July 27, 2018
This is what $MNKD is doing with the piles of Afrezza whistles rotting in their warehouse.
Almost a million shares the first half hour and traded as low as $1.52 -- think there's a hint in there somewhere?
Tanner who? Wow -- I'm so impressed:
http://www.tannerpharma.com/products/
Of course, you saw how much money MNKD got in the deal -- didn't you?
No -- August 2:
"WESTLAKE VILLAGE, Calif., July 27, 2018 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- MannKind Corporation (Nasdaq: MNKD) will host a conference call to discuss the 2018 second quarter and year-to-date financial results and other corporate developments at 5:00 PM (Eastern Time) on Thursday, August 2, 2018."
"The EXCITEMENT is PALPABLE -- NEW SCRIPT NUMBERS:
Nrx = 282
Refills = 271
Trx = 553
Revenues = 703,000
LAST WEEK:
Nrx = 264
Refills = 291
Trx = 555
Revenues = 780,000
...or NOT!!! So MUCH for the EFFECT of ADA meetings, investor presentations, and TV commercials, huh?"
Down a penny on 522,000 shares -- I guess they'll try for less than 500,000 tomorrow.
Averaging about 70,000 shares an hour -- it'll be lucky to make it to 500,000 by close -- can't someone make this paint dry just a little faster?
"Dr. DeFronzo's interview from last year's ADA meeting:
http://www.diabetesincontrol.com/dr-ralph-defronzo-full-transcript/
"...I would take a GLP-1 receptor agonist. I would take probably a low dose pioglitazone with Metformin or with an SGLT-2 inhibitor. I would be on the triple therapy right from the beginning because we know it works. We’re now five years into this triple therapy study and these people are VERY, VERY WELL CONTROLLED. They basically have normal beta cell function, major improvement in insulin sensitivity...
...My goal is to make sure they NEVER get on insulin therapy. I’m going to be aggressive early on. I’m going to treat them with drugs such as GLP-1 receptor agonist. These drugs have a powerful effect. I don’t believe in humans, that they cause beta cells to replicate. What I believe is that they stop beta cells from dying."
Did you catch that "VERY, VERY WELL CONTROLLED" and "make sure they NEVER get on insulin"? Just ANOTHER nail in the afrezza COFFIN."
563,000 shares traded -- ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ...
59,000 shares in the first half hour? Anyone got any valium -- I'm starting to get palpitations.
887,000 shares and down 2 cents. So much excitement.
I hate to think what kind of wreck a massive secondary into such a pathetically slow market like that would produce. Probably need to start up some sort of widows and orphans fund to help the bulls.
The bulls would be backing up the truck except it got got repossessed.
2 hours in and 270,000 shares traded -- like watching paint dry.
MNKD shareholders have been saying the same thing for over twenty years now; and the only place they've ever gotten is the poorhouse.
"@BagholderPains
Replying to @ideapharma @DrugPatentWatch
And without a DOUBT, #afrezza is the biggest FAILURE in the history of pharmaceuticals -- which just goes to show how having patents does NOT equate to them being WORTH more than a pile of horse MANURE."
678,000 shares traded? And how many have they got out standing now -- about 140 million give or take? Evidently even the boiler rooms have given up!
"Right direction," indeed! In the three weeks since the ADA meeting and the "institutional investor and analyst meeting," the stock dropped over 20%.
I definitely agree it's going in the "right direction."
"Raising money could be history" and Tinker Bell could fly over and sprinkle fairy dust on them -- about the same probability, I'd say.
Mannkind is now being used as a classic example of a serial diluter:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/biotech-investors-fear-dilution-122500106.html
"The small-cap immuno-oncology company Agenus (NASDAQ: AGEN) and the inhaled insulin company MannKind Corporation (NASDAQ: MNKD) are prime examples of this phenomenon. Even though both of these companies have been in existence for over two decades, these two particular biotechs have failed to bring a product to market capable of generating a significant revenue stream. As a result, these two companies have essentially been forced to wipe out their early shareholders through serial dilution."