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Purple, I'm encouraged by today's action thus far. I think a C&H is definitely a distinct possibility. Let's see if $2.25 area holds in a market sell-off -- which I believe is imminent.
I'd like swing trader's take. He's VERY much on target. I'm a newbie with technical analysis.
Sean
Daily technicals look lousy. IF we have a sell-off in the general market, without PPHM specific very good news, I'd look for these support areas:
DAILY CHARTS --
$2.20 (200 EMA)
$2.02 ( 50 EMA)
WEEKLY CHARTS --
$2.24 (50 EMA)
$2.08 (20 EMA)
IF we can hold around the $2.25 area, it MAY set us up for a very powerful bullish chart pattern.
All FWIW.
Sean
FWIW: 3 month VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price) is around 2.78. I wouldn't be surprised to see the share price consolidate around that level. If it overshoots, the lower rising trendline (dating from mid-December) would be hit around 2.65.
Both the VWAP and rising trendline are moving targets, so these observations are for today only.
Sean
The odd thing is, Hayward, that according to my data feed, more than 245,000 shares were purchased at practically the last second @ $1.66 (which was .02 above the ask!).
Bollinger Bands on the Daily chart are very tight. Expect a pretty good size move in the not-too-distant future.
Which way? Take your pick. But there's a very bearish chart pattern that indicates a downside target @ $1.45.
We are oversold on the daily; but there's room to go lower.
Sean
P.S. I'm actually hoping that by mentioning the bearish chart pattern that I'll jinx the %$#* thing.
Thanks, swg_tdr. Your insights are always clear and helpful. Perhaps the recent price advance was due to the Avid announcement this morning.
FWIW: I hate to give people hope from Technical Analysis, but two things stand out at the moment:
(1) On the weekly chart, there is a pending bullish crossover on the MACD oscillator.
(2) On the daily chart, 6 out of 8 technical indicators that I follow are sporting positive multi-month divergences. The indicators displaying positive divergences:
RSI Ultimate Oscillator Money Flow Index
MACD Full Stochastics CCI
I'm ignoring a developing potential bear flag on the weekly; if it played out, PPHM would be out of business.
swg_tdr.....any thoughts?
Good find AANI Bull....many thanks!
bigworld, you're absolutely right. The only thing keeping me from selling this company is that I think that's EXACTLY what the bastards who run it want. They've had nothing but contempt for the retail investor in the 11 years I've owned it. I want out, I just want a little more alleviation of loss before I do. I expect that it can at least give me that.
Price has broken below a one month rising trend line. PPHM just can't gain any traction.
Potential chart patterns indicating it's either a PPS trip ahead to (appox.) $1.15 or $1.52.
King: "our goal for this....our goal for that...." Why not meet just one goal, Jackass?
Biosimilars....great opportunity......evaluating potential targets....we'll be in a position before too long...."
By the end of the year we'll lay out some PLANS.
King, for the love of the Good Lord,SAY SOMETHING, PLEASE!!!!
"I THINK we have enough capacity for Avid to produce bavi and outside clients." YOU THINK??????
"Hopefully" "We think" IS MANAGEMENT CERTAIN ABOUT ANYTHING?????
He's telling us absolutely nothing. Notice multiple references to reporting various results at an "appropriate time." Thanks.
AVID is now being touted. How the hell do you explain a 50% haircut in revenues? "Activities have remained high." RU F'ING KIDDING ME?
Technicals on Daily Chart For What It's Worth:
* Severely Oversold (but this has been the case -- with the
exception of about one week -- since late June).
* Conflicting Key Technicals:
MACD near a bearish cross
Full Stochastics near a bullish cross
* Positive divergence on RSI since late July (but on the verge of
breaking down).
* Positive divergence on CCI since early July (but on the verge of
breaking down).
Nothing conclusive as to whether or not we've achieved a bottom.
Sean
cheynew....unless this debacle reverses very quickly, it will be difficult for King and the Board to survive. King, especially, would have failed in his fiduciary duties to shareholders.
Scenario 1: Class action suits (and believe me, they are pending...King has given plenty of ammunition to question his veracity if the share price reflects internal problems that should have been exposed) will be fought to the point of using up sufficient resources to bankrupt the company.
Scenario 2: In order for class action suits to be dropped (because the plaintiffs can't get blood out of a stone), King will be forced to step down and the Board will be replaced.
Even after 11 years of frustration, I must say that, given King's recent spate of rosy outlooks, it's difficult for me to believe that this decline in share price is legitimate (of course, it doesn't have to be if there are hedge funds cooperating to destroy the company).
I just scratch my head.
FWIW
The trend line low on my chart would reach to $1.25. I don't know whether this company survives, but it's almost a relief to know that we'll know soon one way or another.
MMs are either (1) in cahoots with hedgies who are employed to naked short this stock into oblivion by a competitor(s) or (2) accumulating shares for someone(s) who want to own it VERY cheaply and drive retail out.
Things could still change on a dime.
swg-tdr....agreed (eom)
You're correct TekNuLoof....apologies (eom)
The only support trend line I have left is $1.40-$1.50. If that level doesn't hold, the only other "marker" is the all-time low of $1.25.
soulofwolf: that's always the conundrum of a small biotech. Probably what big pharma was offering for cotara would be considered an insult by PPHM investors. So, management holds out. If there's a healthy market, management will raise the $ through things like we've been doing (selling shelf shares); however, if we enter a protracted bear market (as we could very well be in), big pharma can disguise it's greed through collusion with hedgies doing their naked shorting (and the SEC doesn't give jacks&%@).
My fear that receded after the last run, but which has returned as a nightmare: a hedge fund(s), colluding with a big pharma (who wants the bavi tech -- not a partnership), to naked short this company into oblivion. It's been done before.
geocappy.....
I detect a tone of snarkiness in your response to my final share price expectations. If I'm wrong, I apologize.
However, if I'm right about your tone, I ask you to please not shoot the messenger. I bought in the high threes because I saw another pattern that I thought would play out. It didn't.
I shared my expectations about $1.90 to $2.00 to be helpful (or at least try to be) for those who were thinking about buying more. How much I'll buy at $2.00 is my personal business.
Personally, I think the announcement today of a July 14th 4th quarter conference call, amidst this carnage, is a net positive.
I think the present valuation of this company at these levels is absurd, and is simply another display of the inefficiency of the market. AVID is potentially worth more than the present PPS.
Good luck.
Sean
If the Head & Shoulders chart pattern plays to its ultimate possibility, I fully expect to be able to purchase PPHM between $1.90 and $2.00 (especially if the market sell-off continues).
Sean
Hi cheynew, old or not: someone is making a fairly big bet for October. I made no bones about not liking the 15K put options awhile back; to be consistent, I must say I like the October call action. Sometimes it means jacksquat -- but sometimes........
Sean
Anyone notice
3400+ July $7.50 call options and 9500+ October $7.50 call options?
The joke is
Down 5% with under 50K shares traded....mostly with 100 share block walk downs. A stampede to the exits this is not.
Condolences, Ken.
Sean
I tend to agree with you, dog. DCTH had good news at ASCO, since it's been cut about 40%. Down 18+% today. No news, but the raping of the pps.
Sean
dia...don't have private email rights, but I agree 100%. EOM
purpledawgs....I'll take a stab at your question.
There's thin trend line support just north of $2.70; if this market sells off again, however, I fear $2.50 is a much more realistic target. That's a 100% retracement from the low set in late December of 2009.
Daily chart sucks. Monthly chart contains reasons not to despair. Anything good and unexpected can happen -- charts or no charts. Charts are just a guide; they're not the Holy Grail of crystal balls.
That being said, I'm afraid we could be in for an ol' fashioned PPHM torch and burn party that some of us thought would not likely happen again. Those 20,000 July $2.50 puts are a real wet blanket.
Sean
dia, I guess defending a poster on this board gets your post deleted. I don't get it. What's up with that cj?
swing trader....you're looking at the October $2.50 puts.
lafont, I gave you the only evidence that anyone has. Do you see other stocks down 20% during the day on no news? Yes, there's fear and irrationality -- but the extent of this security's fall (on no news that we know of) with the inordinate amount of 2.50 July puts seems to be more than just a bit coincidental.
If there is bad news coming, it's not manipulation; it's sheer breaking of the law on insider trading (which happens all the time with impunity). Makes no difference. It is what it is.
lafont, it isn't always market manipulation when a stock flushes any more than it's investment genius when a stock is manipulated upwards. But sometimes it is; I think (unless there is bad news out there waiting) that when you see a stock price plummet more than 20% in day (with no news), it's a pretty safe bet it's manipulation.
Notice as well that they managed to break up a beautifully formed cup & handle pattern forming since early September 09 which offered a $5.80 target. That was also deliberate so as to raise the cautionary flags to those who had been buying into that pattern.
Bas*%^#@, but they know how to steal.
tarifa.....I think they closed the gap dating back to January 6-7. The gap was between 2.69 and 2.73 (today's low was 2.71, so not quite a complete gap close).
I think it's a stretch, however, to say that was the reason for this nonsense. The more likely reason was the 20,000+ 2.50 July puts whose holder knew all along that they had the resources to massacre the price before ASCO and get shares on the cheap. I think DNDN had a similar massacre experience that flushed out a massive number of stops before their complete recovery and surge upward.
Sheer market manipulation.
Correction: should read I WANT to apologize for cluttering the board. What a clutz.
Sean
cheynew, I still think we could see a very sudden and powerful surge to the upside at any time. Most of the TA indicators that I follow still are holding strong for PPHM.
I posted today because I know there are some who don't follow the charts, and thought that a contextual TA opinion might be calming given what I thought might be a very volatile day. Other chartists may see things differently (Moby is much better than me -- that's what makes a market).
JMHO.
Sean
P.S. Some here may find personal technical analysis a sideshow. If so, I don't want to apologize for cluttering the board.
TekNuLoof, I agree. No volume stampede despite 5% sell-off.
cheynew, as serene indicates, TA is not a science; their are hosts of unknowns. However, I would hope (pray) the 200 day simple moving average holds at about $3.33. If that doesn't hold, there's nothing but air between the 200 day and a trend line (dating from November 2008) at about $3.00.
Sean