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Fortune cookie says "A stranger breaks a promise"... hmmm
Both barrels for Glen?
No administrative action could really tank the prefs, so nothing this week and the meltdown there continues
PLUS, showing the Frontier style stock analysis, Glen's GNW pick just imploded:
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3648257-genworth-stock-drops-24-after-merger-end-date-passes
Both barrels for the New Year? Hope he owns his condo given the FL BK laws...
Jan 20th and you can throw all of Calabria's ramblings in the garbage... and he can drag his fat ass back to his tinfoil hat job at some thinktank
More importantly, recent prices of FnF have been predicated on positive steps towards RnR... that just got kneecapped
We have no idea that Biden will move RnR forward, so back to staus quo- hence vicious repricing
I hear Roy Orbison "IT'SSS OVVVER..."
TIMMMBEEERR!!!
I did warn you that Mnuchin wasn't going there...
This is now a play on JPS lawsuits, but they look pricey as court plays -- so we got a sell-off coming
Illiquid prefs going puke bloody red for a few days
Yeah, and it takes a mega-dump if the questions appear to go the wrong way...
Kthomp, the bottom-line is the Republicans and Wall street elite, including Treasury beyond Mnuchin, always wanted FnF dead -- so that is why after FOUR years there was no action.. (Calabria is of no import...)
If the government goes to the trouble of pleading before SCOTUS, then they wait for the judgement
Both reasons why no adminstrative action imho -- Calabria pathetically tried to put out PR's from FHFA about moving forward lol as if that would work politically, but probably covering his fat ass when recriminations roll
This investment is now a roll of the judicial dice -- so not for me at the price of JPS right now since an AIG-like *creative* ruling scares me too much
Hope you make out like a bandit...
Selling has begun... risk on the comments in hearing too, negative remarks ... boom
Yup, all hangs on ONE judgement by the highest federal court -- welcome to the legal casino!!!
As predicted -- NO administrative action... what clowns said they must act?
Pleading before SCOTUS means no plans to act until after a judgement by SCOTUS -- and it should worry investors that Treasury is happy to have SCOTUS rule... why would that be?
Crash alert!!! The three trains rally killer has been sighted LOL
God I am glad to be done hanging on the cryptic remarks of Federal judges who then rule any which way
Good luck to all longs here
It is potentially similar because Federal judges can get real *creative* in their judgements to avoid the government paying out huge amounts to hedge funds... but we will see in January
Shit or bust on SCOTUS -- no thanks
So, NO adminstrative action as predicted -- Mnuchin did not want to go there despite prodding from the politically hapless Calabria
Now EVERYTHING rides on SCOTUS -- there is a reason no one wants to go to trial cos either side can lose even when you win. The AIG judgement was the cautionary tale here. Federal judges can get very *creative* when they need to...
Good luck to all longs
...and THEN he bought JPS to hedge his common -- the JPS buy is more recent than common buy for Ackman
Well, I am of the opinion that they drive clown cars and wear red noses at FHFA, so I mark me underwhelmed...
We shall see if the sober suits at Treasury bite or not.
End of the year is completely irrelevant imho, whether it happens before Dec 9th is the key, right?
Maybe the clowns at FHFA are trying to lobby through the press?
FHFA officials, while blabbering their heads off per usual, told me that FHFA officials have bought these shoes for themselves and FnF execs -- it is apparently why CEO left -- so that any dance is severely hampered and does not get out of control:
https://www.amazon.com/Dansko-Womens-Professional-Patent-Petrol/dp/B001UV3FWI/ref=sr_1_23?dchild=1&keywords=clogs&qid=1605803884&sr=8-23
I want to hear from TREASURY officials, not FHFA, so I am still undecided... GL
I am all-in over at PSTH, so I have all the action I can handle lol
Kthomp, thanks, but you want Treasury - not FHFA -- telling people it is happening... But I can see the reason for the moderate bump...
Calabria is gung-ho, but the question is does he have a dance partner in Mnuchin?
What news here? JPS doing 10-20% up today
lol, is that your "information"?
Hope you friend at St. Joe has it right, GL
Glenn, I think this week is your best shot -- GL, I have my fingers crossed for all the FnF crew
Yup, I have been trading in and out of: malls, hotels and pipelines... just cannot hold them so I take the 20-30-50% rip moves and wait for the dip (SKT did awesome last week lol)
This week's 30-40% jump across all of them is already melting away and when tax loss selling starts that will accelerate imho
Like you say, no widespread vaccine till April, the economy is in the tank, no new stimulus since Trump has given up in a sulk -- so old school stuff will tank again
I just want to have enough cash to buy a dip in my malls, hotels and pipelines since I can then sit getting decent divvies waiting out the recovery
Very scary market
Take 50% out as profit, then you won't get screwed in the next political move that whipsaw's the stock... and you buy back at half price
It never EVER hurts to take a profit
GL
On the other thing, he basically admitted it, so yes I agree
Weird stuff...
Brooge, I agree that IF administrative action happens then there will be a pop in commons (as long as they do not say cramdown to infinity...) and then one could take some profits there -- navy is right, you got to take your profits
Potential pop on SCOTUS ruling too, and I would take my profits -- or half of them on that
I have my fingers crossed for you getting a pop, but I would take some of those profits... the political and legal wrangling here is endless
Right now I have things that I have more certainty over returns and much lower risk (PSTH has no downside,GLNG is a long term compounder imho, and cash waiting for a crash), so unless JPS goes much lower I cannot justify buying in
If they plead before SCOTUS, then they wait for verdict -- which is after Jan 20th
JPS have started to tip, see what happens as Dec 9th approaches...
Glenn, how much do you think JPS is worth if there is no administrative action by Dec 9th?
I would prefer to compare JPS investment today to cash rather than commons -- I have cash and I am not buying commons
JPS prices starting to crack, another week and it will be panic selling...
Running out of runway here...
Looking at the calendar there are only TWO weeks left:
Week starting the 16th, next week, then the week starting on the 30th, the week in between is Thanksgiving holiday and then after that is SCOTUS hearing...
If it is not next week, then Trump administration lays the goose egg on FnF reform -- unsurprisingly since GOP wants to kill FnF and not reform them
Slow-walked it for 4 years: mission accomplished
Buffett completely sold out of his long standing, and very large, WFC position -- I think this systemic malpractice was pretty clearly why...
One has to laugh or one will cry in these times of ours...
Trump has dumped all his duties while he sulks about being rejected by the electorate -- will he sanction any actions going forward? God knows...
I think they will lose 50% of the cash on JPS by Dec 9th...
Shocker, Secretary of Treasury, and pointman for Stimulus Negotiations, meeting with President -- must be FnF, what else could it be?
I agree with Kthomp, I don't really see the upside for commons...
Hi Kthomp, I agree with most everything you said -- I am not running out an buying commons lol
By "AIG-style ruling" I did not mean the details of that ruling, rather I meant a ruling in which Federal judges get "cute" by legal hook or legal crook to award a victory in name alone. (Judge Ginsberg ruling turning on "may" looms in my mind as well...). THAT is a real danger.
I hope you make out like a bandit, but $9 is too expensive for me given how I see the risk/reward...
So you are betting it all on SCOTUS? hmmm, I am not with you lol
Brooge, you are assuming SCOTUS deliver a victory with cash implications for shareholders -- I think a "victory" which is weaselly constructed so that no benefit accrues is just as likely... or even a loss...
Federal judges have not been kind here, so I would not bet on the results of a SCOTUS ruling EXCEPT at a much lower JPS price...
Given the Georgia senate races, the "give-away to hedge-funds" will not be happening imho
SCOTUS hearing is next positive event, the negative event of no administrative action is going to give the JPS a haircut - hang on!
Rumple, you are missing the danger -- Treasury assuming Trump wins another term means they go to SCOTUS and wait for a decision... and administrative action is scuppered
Another wrinkle...
The new Trump wrinkle...
So, today we learn the Trump administration is planning for a second term and going ahead with budgets for next year with that in mind
The approach is to act AS IF Trump will win
BUT if that is the approach, then Treasury assumes it has plenty of time AND HENCE goes to the SCOTUS hearing and waits for the verdict... no administrative action before Jan 20th
However, contrary to the moronic crap Glenn posts on his page, there is no evidence of anything (I am quoting the top Republican election lawyer Ginsburg) so Biden will be sworn in on the 20th...
A real catch 22...