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Investors don’t have sufficient information to determine whether eggs will be produced at Prodigy or GSS. They reportedly sent the parent lines of the dual hybrid model directly to GSS.
If Thompson can’t solve the genetic drift issue at HQ, Produgy probably won’t be able to either.
But we don’t know if genetic drift is still an issue or if some other problems are to blame for low yields. It’s a hypothesis that has some evidentiary support, but no one knows for certain except KBLB, and maybe not even them.
Stay tuned.
Mojo: “Kim stated that he wasn’t happy with the yield and stated they needed worms that were more robust…they then spent a year developing more robust worms…now they have a successful production run…
What else do you need to know?…”
What the yield was, why it was low, why KBLB thinks something different will be better, the basis for that belief. Those are things I very much want to know.
If the yield was low because temps were too high, that’s one kind of problem. If the yield was low because the silkworms all died from disease, that’s a different problem. If the yield was low because most of the silkworms reverted back to producing mundane silk, another different kind of problem.
If the problem was reversion but Thompson is trying to develop silkworms that survive the heat, he won’t get the fix he is looking for. I’m not even certain KBLB understands the problem. So I guess that is the first thing I would want to know.
Why is this so hard to understand?
Gimme: “Apparently since you have been negative in your term of a shareholder you are not allowed to be positive by some shareholders here.”
The comments being posted to you were absurd. I recommend not giving any attention to the person who dinged you the most. Don’t read, don’t reply. Another person just desperate for attention.
My estimate of the relative sizes is based on inventory numbers. We will have to wait until late March, but the new inventory figure will allow a comparison of production in 2022 and 2023. Best we can do at this point. Note there was no increase in inventory on the Q3 report, so the silk inventoried at the end of the year is no more than 3 months.
Agreed. It’s a good sign, not the final word. GSS was able to produce an unknown quantity of silk in late 2022 that was probably larger than what is shown here. Unfortunately, they were not able to sustain production. A ‘one-and-done’ you might say.
This might be another ‘one-and-done.’ Or it might not. Investors have no real understanding about why GSS was not able to sustain production or the conditions under which this latest batch was produced. Ramping up and sustaining production will be the next steps for KBLB, along with selling silk, either in finished products or just raw silk.
Having said that, I am more hopeful for KBLB’s future than I have been for quite some time. If things go well, I suspect December 14 will be seen as the day where KBLB’s fortunes shifted.
I certainly have no objections to the increase in value of the shares I hold in KBLB. The past two days have been good.
I understand your response about testing the production model. Nevertheless, the silk is described as ‘spider silk,’ and that means Vietnam had some source of eggs for breeding. Again I speculate this was the dual-hybrid model.
I’m assuming there weren’t that many new pieces to the production model. A change or two in screening protocols, running the silk through the finishing equipment.
I suspect this was also some proof of viability of the dual-line model.
Nowhere did I state that mulberry was unobtainable in November.
Your statements about the certainty of Air Force funding are reminiscent of the finest French Quarter psychic mediums. Do you perform Tarot Card readings as well?
I understand. You were talking about the closeup photo reposted by WebSlinger recently. I agree completely that photograph provides little context and it is impossible to determine the quantity of silk being photographed.
My assumption has always been that Thompson did his best to hide unflattering information and the full quantity was unimpressive. But the argument that closeup photo and the one of Thompson holding the holiday bundle were of the same silk bundle never rang true.
Thompson’s evident pride and happiness holding the small production bundle is a part of the reason why this seems like a turning point. He’s not hiding unflattering news; he’s proudly showing off his newborn silk.
Hoping the positive news is sustained in the new year.
The bundle of silk runs from Thompson’s right hand held down low up to his opposite shoulder. The camera was taken slightly below the trio and has a small amount of perspective distortion. (If you look at the columns on the far left and far right, you will see these are slightly splayed apart. That happens when the camera is pointing upwards.) Thompson’s left shoulder is twisted away from the camera, so there is also some distortion in depth.
Three feet is a decent ballpark length of the bundle. It is a little squashed because of the way Thompson is holding it. If you laid it down on a table and pulled the ends apart, the bundle would be longer.
Thompson’s left hand appears to be covering about 1/4 of the circumference of the bundle. Given an approximate hand length of 6 inches for adult males, we can assume the bundle has a circumference of approximately 24 inches, or a diameter of 7.5 to 8 inches.
Suppose the whole bundle was wrapped tightly in plastic wrapping. By my calculations, this would be a reasonably solid cylinder 8 inches in diameter and 36 inches in length.
Yankee suggested 25 kilos. I’m believe that is pretty close. I haven’t been able to find many pictures of bundles of silk with associated weights. I think the photo I provided yesterday was not a full 10-kilo bundle.
Imjin: “Why would they start mass production before completing their stated goals for the recently completed batch? They need to start and complete "Spring field trials." I'm not sure exactly what those will entail.”
I agree this is puzzling. Some of the information shared by TRUISM indicated that different strains of silkworm were preferred during different seasons. I’m guessing that worms successful in the spring and fall might find the climate too harsh in the summer.
We know that KBLB sent over their dual-line hybrid eggs in January, and they have since been developing a quad-line hybrid model at HQ.
Suppose that GSS was able to breed a generation or two of the dual-line silkworms before the summer arrived and thus expanded the breeding population. In the early fall, they bred the parent lines together and had some eggs that could be used for production. They went ahead with producing from this dual-line hybrid and that is the silk Thompson is holding.
This dual-line hybrid may only be suitable for spring/fall breeding, but at least it is a start.
Next I presume that KBLB wants to test their quad-line hybrids. That will happen during the ‘Spring field trials.’ Hopefully the quad-line will work during three seasons, so they don’t have to breed both the dual-line and the quad-line, but this is not certain.
Imjin: “Is this just creating and testing product prototypes? Also what is considered Spring in Vietnam?”
My thinking was that the field trials will hopefully reveal the viability of the quad-line hybrid model and allow for comparison of the quantity and quality of silk from the dual-line and quad-line models.
The seasons in Vietnam are roughly the same as the US. Various pieces I’ve read suggest that mulberry is scarce in the January - March timeframe, but the precise dates likely depend on any number of local conditions.
Let me work you through my reasoning on this picture:
The wire services describe this photograph as portraying executive from Prodigy (Kenneth Lee, per Mojo) transferring a bundle of raw finished silk to Thompson in December of 2023. That information was put out on the wire news services.
The stairway railing, columns, and decorations all suggest (to me) this is taking place in Vietnam (which makes a great deal of sense given the trip Thompson and Rice made to Vietnam recently) when the venue was decorated for foreigners in a winter holiday style.
If that picture was taken at a different time (such as the point where KBLB received a shipment from GSS) or was not of KBLB’s GMO silk, Thompson would run afoul of SEC regulations in a pretty big and obvious way. I accept this is a picture of the transfer of a ‘small batch’ of silk from Prodigy to KBLB taking place in December of 2023. Nothing else, other than outright fraud, could explain that photograph.
IMHO, as always.
Still don’t see it as a certainty. A possibility, but not a certainty.
There are simply too many ways things can go awry when dealing with the US government.
Assuming the contract with Kings is still valid, I’m guessing the silk will be slated to go to them. They were looking into silk/cotton blends for luxury streetwear applications, so I’m pretty much on the same page that you are right now.
Also note the term ‘finished’ in the PR. In the past, KBLB has indicated their silks needed to be “opened up” for apparel applications and described that as a ‘finishing’ process. Other kinds of applications would not necessarily want that finishing to take place.
I hope this is enough silk, along with what KBLB already has in their inventory, to get started with Kings.
At the latest, KBLB will show this silk being added to their inventory on the 10-K report that we get around the end of March. This probably won’t indicate the weight of the silk, but we can see from the increase in their inventory what the value of this silk was. That will help an understanding of how it compares to what they got previously from GSS.
Yesterday may end up being seen as an inflection point in KBLB’s fortunes. Clearly Thompson knew about the amount of silk he would be receiving for at least a month now, but I’m glad he at least felt comfortable sharing a picture of it with us.
Once upon a time, I worked on a labor crew. We had to deliver several pallets of salt bags downstairs into the basement for the building’s water softener. The four of us each carried 4 50-pound bags on our shoulders each trip. I had to stoop down so the top bag cleared one of the floor joists before reaching the storage location. The top two bags were above my head.
Not quite 100 kilos, but close enough.
I still have a water softener. I think the bags I get are only 40 pounds, but I’d have to check to make sure. The bags of sand I lug around for the back yard are probably 50 pounds.
You might talk me down to 30 kilos, but 15 — no way.
Gimme: “I'm hopeful that things are finally coming together.”
Hope is justified at this point, I believe.
I assure you it is much heavier than 10 pounds. Notice the support he is getting from the man next to him?
40 to 60 kilos remains my best guess.
No. The 10-year-old image was of a twisted hank of silk. The bundle of silk Thompson is holding is not twisted.
Most of the photos from KBLB do not show sufficient context to evaluate the overall size of silk. For example, the image of the hank of silk you provided was not the complete hank, just some of the twisted strands.
In contrast, this photo shows the bundle of silk in comparison to Thompson’s body. We can see how large it is. This is certainly multiples of 10 kilos of silk. If GSS can produce 50 kilos of silk/month on a repeated basis, there is no reason they can’t increase the monthly quantity produced.
We don’t know how long it took to produce this silk. That is a big unknown. Nevertheless, I did not expect to see this much silk in 2023, even if it represents 6 months of effort.
This is a positive signal that KBLB is starting to turn the corner. How far they have come we don’t know yet. But I take this as a significant positive sign.
It looks to me more like a hotel or convention center than a department store. I don't think Christmas is that big a deal in Vietnam, but hotels that have a heavy international clientele will often decorate for holidays that the rest of the country mostly ignores.
Once again, this is an opinion only. I'm certain I will hear how foolish and off-target I am.
More information about the photo appears on the news wires.
Globenewswire has the photo from the PR along with the caption "Presentation of spider silk from Prodigy Textiles to Jon Rice and Kim Thompson of Kraig Labs."
I'm certain there are people on this board who can provide a far better estimate of the weight of the silk than I can. My best guess is 40 to 60 kilos. Here is a photo of a 10 kilo hank of silk: .
I might have called it closer to 100 kilos, but that's a lot of weight for Thompson to be shouldering, even with the assistance of another person.
Several things of note here. First, the PR describes this as raw finished silk. KBLB sent equipment to Prodigy (as I recall) to finish the silk. I don't know whether or not finishing is done on cocoons or reeled silk. (Once again, people who know more than I do are welcome to correct me or provide further clarification.) 50 kilos of silk requires 275,000 cocoons. From the videos of Prodigy, that would have been a several-month effort.
Speculating, I believe that this silk was produced at GSS and sent to Prodigy for finishing. Not sure where it was reeled. We do know, for certain, that production was re-started some time this past year in Vietnam. My previous guesses that production had been halted in Vietnam were wrong.. At the very least, if they were halted, they were re-started some time during the year.
More speculation: the cocoons used to produce this bundle of silk were created at least a month ago. That is: it took a month to finish, reel, and gather the silk shown in this photo. Could it have been two weeks? If so, they were a very busy two weeks.
More speculation: this silk was produced from the dual-hybrid line sent to Vietnam in January. KBLB never reported any additional shipments of silk to Vietnam after the January shipment. Perhaps Prodigy or GSS worked to increase the breeding pool of the dual-line hybrids, having to toss out some of the low-quality or non-viable silkworms, but finally ending up with a solid production batch.
I'm calling this significant good news for investors. As always, I have far more questions than KBLB is willing to answer, but this is a respectable production of silk. Clearly KBLB is signaling to everyone that they want to try a different production model with their field trials, but here is evidence of production on a quasi-commercial scale.
Sure seems like a great opportunity for KBLB/prodigy to develop and sell either mundane or GMO eggs.
There was no mention of Thompson or KBLB, but perhaps they had some side meetings with the government representatives. The meeting was Dec 2, not sure when Thompson arrived in Vietnam, and I can’t tell from the photos if the same officials were present.
Hoping for more updates from KBLB.
Okay. Thanks for the images.
I found the pictures interesting and wanted to know more about them. I checked KBLB’s main website and their facebook page to see what else I could learn. Didn’t find a thing. I checked Sickzone’s recent posts to see if I overlooked a source. Came up empty. That led me to post a reply asking for the source. Apologies to Sickzone if it was too curt. I really did want to know more and was using my phone for iHub while other things were going on.
I don’t know how to get geotags from images and thought someone might have looked into this already. The picture with many trays of silkworms looked like a fantastic setup for rearing silkworms. I wondered if this might be GSS. If so, their setup was impressive. The room geometry and paint color did not seem to be Prodigy, but I thought perhaps the locale might be illuminated through a geotag.
I assume either task would be about few minutes of work for people with the right knowledge, so I didn’t feel like it was a big ask. I very much appreciate Sickzone’s posting of the images and his later post that provided additional information. It would sure be nice to get more, but that ought to come from KBLB.
I keep repeating myself in describing my basis for skepticism because you don’t seem to understand it. Not sure if/when you will acknowledge that people with this perspective have a legitimate basis for their beliefs, even though you disagree with them.
If you think that my posts are hurting the price of the stock, I will point out that my rate of posting has dropped considerably of late but the share price has not rebounded. Why all the anger and personal comments?
Great way to move the dialog along. Nice to see you standing tall above the fray, and the subtle nuances in your thoughtful post … breathtaking.
No face saving needed. No one needs to apologize for skepticism about KBLB’s progress given the company’s past history of failed production attempts, misleading statements, and self-inflicted wounds.
Perhaps KBLB has at last discovered the secret sauce they need to produce and sell GMO silks. About a year ago, the company did seem to realize it did not have viable silkworms for production in Vietnam and they focused on this problem. Their investigation of hybrids was the right move. The people they have chosen to hire are precisely the ones they need to move forward.
But KBLB has not revealed enough information about their problems and the solutions they have come up with to allow a confident prediction that they have solved the problems they faced.
I can’t even bring myself to buy more shares at 3 cents each, knowing that a pop to 50 cents/share would yield a 1,566% profit, a gobsmacking rate of return.
All of us who are invested want to see tangible evidence of success. The signs are trending in a positive direction, but investors are still looking for stronger indications than Thompson has chosen to share recently. Thus we wait for more news.
I don’t remember seeing this article from Wired that appeared in 2021. It has a brief mention of KBLB and talks about the problems that Bolt had with their silk production:
https://www.wired.com/story/the-race-to-put-silk-in-nearly-everything/
A skeptic is not the same as a basher. Hopefully you understand the difference.
This board has bashers. It also has skeptics. One of the bashers is someone I ignore. Even though I can’t get the ‘ignore’ function to work properly, whenever I open one of their posts, I move on. I recommend others do likewise. The more attention they receive, the more likely they are to continue.
People understood the significance of the announcement was conditional on KBLB being able to create silkworms that can survive in Vietnam. As KBLB appears to be having a great deal of difficulty in reaching that goal, any potential for expansion in Lam Dong was irrelevant.
We are still several months away from knowing whether or not KBLB has been successful in that regard. Hopefully they got all of their ducks in a row this time and is on a path to commercial production. But skepticism is appropriate given the past claims that KBLB was at the precipice of success.
Show me the silk.
What was the source for these pictures? Do they have a geotag?
Reading over the strange Dec 6 PR, I believe there is a chance that KBLB is delivering its much-heralded quad-line hybrid eggs to Vietnam on this trip. The trip could be simply an effort to straighten out the management mess at Prodigy and the Prodigy/GSS relationship, but it would make a lot more sense to wait until they had the eggs to work out the protocol.
Prodigy ought to have the capacity to rear some generations of the quad line hybrids even out-of-season. That way, GSS might be able to start producing in the March/April timeframe.
We won’t know for certain one way or the other until KBLB releases more news. There is at least a chance Thompson will give us a little extra cheer this Christmas. But also a chance for more smoke and mirrors.
Delivering eggs now gives a window of May to July to get a first-rate handle on the performance of this next effort. It would help investors enormously for Thompson to be more explicit about the problems with production and why he feels this latest attempt will succeed while previous efforts have failed. Accordingly, I expect we will be kept in the dark for several more months.
Prove me wrong, Thompson. Be straight with investors for the first time in several years.
I’ll sell after you, Bob, Jetow, EOT, and Arachno each prove your confidence in KBLB by buying millions of shares each.
Buy.
EoT: “Some amazing developments happened this year!”
Sorry, no.
EoT: “The letter could be the big all around update we’ve been waiting for?…. We’ll see……”
Information on AF funding: nope.
Production numbers: 0 kg in 2023, but I doubt Thompson will be that explicit.
Update on US production: nope. Not happening now.
Coming contracts: nope. If any, they will wait until Thompson knows he can make silk. That won’t be clear until July or August of next year.
Updates on medical applications: nope. Awaiting production news.
Merry Christmas.
Bob: “You are not giving Kim and Jon enough time to build the company.”
How much more time do they need? Another year? Another five years? Another decade? All I have heard is that it will be happening ‘soon’ but that word has been stretched beyond my understanding on this board.
If it’s going to take another decade, investors would be well advised to sell all their shares at this point, invest in something with a solid rate of return, the plow the money back into KBLB 9 years from now.
I’m simply trying to point out that it matters how long it takes Kim and Jon to build the company. Investors badly need clarification on how much additional time is needed. Earlier this year, we were told KBLB was on track to produce metric tons by the end of 2023. That prediction was incorrect and now we don’t have any guidance from Kim or Jon.
Kicking the can down the road because Kim and Jon ‘need enough time’ is not prudent financial advice. Sorry.
Mojo: “it makes perfect sense to have ALL your EXPERTS take a shot at trouble shooting and overhauling all your facilities...why not?..and it doesnt mean that there has been any failure anywhere or theres problems that need fixing.”
But the fact that it has been more than a year since any production occurred and the earliest you plan to re-start is another 4 months away… that tells you there are problems that need fixing.
We also understand that the previous schedule had to be (implicitly) abandoned means there are problems that need fixing.
Does Thompson need to spell this out in neon letters for you?
Mojo: “everyone dsimisses all the info because they dont want to add 2 and 2 together.”
KBLB has told us they were planning 2 and projecting 2 more. That does not mean they have 4 now. That does not mean they will ever have 4.
Every time I can remember in the past, when KBLB shut off the news stream, it later became obvious that there was an unexpected problem and things had not turned out as planned. If you want to see an exhaustive list of these, consult WebSlinger’s posts.
Now when KBLB has shut off the news stream, you suggest that this is a change in strategy on the part of Thompson, who does not want to disappoint shareholders with more failed projections.
Unfortunately, there is only suggestive evidence to support your claim or to support my skepticism. Having believed KBLB’s projections in the past, only to be disappointed time and again, I’ll reserve judgment.
In short, neither one of us knows for certain what is going on at KBLB. Could be good, could be bad. Only when Thompson provides more information will we be able to determine the truth. Until then, I recommend skepticism as a prudent attitude towards KBLB’s projections. To date, skeptics have been correct 100% of the time, those who are projecting success have failed 100% of the time.
May the odds be with you.
I’ve never accused Thompson of being a scam artist milking KBLB for every penny. I believe he wants to make KBLB into a successful company that will produce an enormous return on his self-awarded shares.
Thompson wants KBLB to succeed.
But that does not mean KBLB has succeeded or even that it knows how to succeed. I believe Thompson honestly felt he had the problems all solved and it was just a matter of scale and sale — on several occasions in the past.
So far, 2023 has been all-but-devoid of production PRs. Plans have been announced, but little more since the January shipment of hybrid lines to Vietnam.
The near total blackout of solid news that has stretched on for months is inconclusive with respect to progress, but in the past, Thompson has gone quiet when things have not been working.
Anyone who is unconcerned now is ignoring important danger signals. At this moment, I believe we will have to wait for the Holiday Newsletter to learn a bit more. Honesty on Thompson’s part will be appreciated by me, at least.
Mojo: “Hiring more scientists isn’t what you do when you have limited funds and big problems to fix…especially when more scientists isnt the the solution…”
Hiring scientists when you have limited funds and their help is the last hope you have for fixing your big problems … isn’t such a terrible idea.
Pretending the company you have invested in is doing well when it has been knocked on its ass more times than you can count … that isn’t the solution.
If KBLB is never able to commercialize their GMO silks, it doesn’t matter what other companies are able to do. Unless KBLB is able to turn the ship around in the next 6 months or so, things will be brutal. If they need more money to continue, I suspect that will be the death knell of our hopes.
I don’t have statistics on this, but I’d guess that most of the companies on the OTC end up failing. KBLB might well find themselves on that list of ‘might-have-beens.’
It’s time to put up or shut down.
Looks like about $5,500 in shares were traded today. Everyone is so excited about the possibilities!
I couldn’t find specific information on the number of employees on the payroll at KBLB in this form, but I may have overlooked it.
One statement of note: “During the three months ended September 30, 2023, we incurred $39,129 of research and development expenses. During the three months ended September 30, 2022, we incurred $62,118 of research and development expenses. This was a decrease of $22,989 or 37.01% in 2023 compared with the same period in 2022. This increase was due to an increase in research spending.”
As far as I can tell, the $40,000 spent in the last three months includes all of the expenditures for personnel and any supplies needed to keep growing and testing silkworms. That is about $13,500/month. This does not look like many high-paid employees. Maybe two at most, plus a couple of part timers to make silkworm chow and clean out silkworm poop.
The Notre Dame people were hired in October and their salaries will not be included until the next report (EOY 2023). But the two sericulture experts should be included in this amount. I’m leaning towards WebSlinger’s idea that these hires were not additional new hires but instead replaced existing people who were not longer with KBLB.
Decreasing research expenditures right at the moment when your business is shut down awaiting further developments from the research lab — not a good look.
News tomorrow? Please? Explain what is going on?
I can dream, even though when I wake up, having my happy everafter seems pretty remote these days.
Thanks for posting the information, fsa. One other small bit of information: KBLB has burned about a million dollars in 9 months of operation this year. That puts them at about $1.3 million per year. They have about $3.3 million in the bank (and gold), so that is 2+ years of operation at the current level.
Any other interesting things turn up in this report?
Oh you know the answer to that: “SOON.”
This is a strange report. It is showing the BoD shares, one investor who owns more than 5% of the shares, and a couple of institutional investors with minuscule holdings.
There isn’t a lot of transparency about share holders. I’m going to use some terms that will probably provoke indignant responses from the cognoscenti, but hopefully my drift will be clear.
KBLB has a registry firm who records shareholders through trades. Normally these records cannot be seen by shareholders. When an annual shareholder meeting is scheduled, the firms are supposed to provide access to the records for the purpose of contacting investors. But one has to go to the firm (I believe this must be in person) to gain access to the records.
Institutional investors are required to report their holdings, as are members of the BoD and anyone with > 5% share. Thus these investors (and their holdings) can be identified from SEC records. That is what your report shows.
But it does not really show the largest investors in KBLB. Thus, the report is, for all intents and purposes, worthless. I don’t think it is easy to get better data, though.
Spiber is not pivoting like Bolt Threads did. They can make luxury yarns AND luxury artificial leathers at the same time. Kind of like, you know, walking and chewing gum simultaneously.
KBLB has steadfastly remained in the no pivot category. They failed to make MS at scale and then, um, twisted to fail to make DS at scale and then, um, twisted to fail to make nearly pure spider silk and then, um, twisted to fail to make immunity silkworms and then, um, twisted to fail to make their double-hybrid DS.
No pivoting going on at KBLB. No sir. Just a lot of twisting around in the wind and getting nothing done.