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Hard to imagine adding long positions tomorrow, guess we'll see.
Sam
I had trouble with IHUB yesterday, but we had three turn around stocks alert, BMET, BPRX and LIZ. BPRX released good earnings after the close, but it would have been a high risk position to hold overnight. BMET backed down into the red before the close, but I still think it has potential. Otherwise, the regulars APPX, DRS and INVN gave another buying opportunity.
I removed HOV from the short term list as it has risen too high off support following the raise in guidance.
Market risk remains high.
Sam
A snip of chat room log today (in Mountain Standard Time):
[7:36] <Sam> It is time for APPX too.
[7:36] <Sam> CEDC strong start.
[7:38] <Sam> No bounce yet in ENZN
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[8:04] <Sam> APPX green and climbing
[8:07] <Sam> ENZN looks like a good value, and at support of 16
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[8:19] <Sam> Dang CEDC has a breakout this morning
[8:19] <Sam> I under estimated the "strong start"....<g>
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[8:29] <Sam> DRS might be good if it can break 26.25.
[8:32] <Sam> Alert DRS
[8:33] <Sam> Not moving fast, low volume, but looks good just the same
Both APPX and CEDC are stocks that I didn't start following until they were brought to the room by one of the members. There is a definite value to have lots of eyes watching the market.
Sam
ENZN has a compelling risk/reward here around 16, a day of letting the grounds settle might be good, but I like here. A turnaround to keep an eye on is SCSC.
Sam
DRS alerted the break of 26.26
ENZN after a strong open is worth looking for a bounce here at 17.
Sam
The breakouts went nowhere today, one turnaround stock alerted, BAX, and I added a position in that one. We spent the day looking for a good bottom in APPX and INVN, never took on a position however. One of our other perennial favorites DRS looks like it will be a buy shortly. Another interesting stock to keep an eye on tomorrow is ANSI, it had a breakout yesterday but closed near the low of the day.
Sam
http://www.savvy-trader.com
INVN looks good around 25 for a long. I'd consider APPX below 24. I'm in BAX at 28.23, on our turnaround list today....Lastly, COLM needs to brew a day or two, too risky here.
Sam
Now that I seem to get charts working. Bottoming in the market's downward momentum?
Remember this is not a chart of the absolute value of the ratio anymore, but the momentum of the the ratio. Thus a signal change can occur before there is an absolute change in the 7-day moving average of the ratio showing the balance of buying and selling activity in the market. So, it might be over analyzing to try and pick bottoms and tops by looking at the chart of the momentum, as above. Guess we'll see...
Sam
To look at our main market strength indicator I'd have to as if the market is beginning a turn back up?
I couldn't get the chart to post on IHUB tonight, it is posted on our site at http://www.savvy-trader.com
The site has been updated for Monday, February 3, stocks to watch as well.
Sam
These did well, hope some could act on it.
Have a nice weekend,
Sam
We've had a couple turnaround alerts this morning worth noting. FLR and WC
One look at COLM and you can see why we recommend against holding through earnings.
From yesterday's commentary on the site: COLM screened out for a short term trade, but releases earnings after the close today, still, it might be worth watching for a day trade today.
Sam
Site is updated for tomorrow, a couple shorts included in this group.
Sam
http://www.savvy-trader.com
The revised GDP release for the 4th quarter comes out February 28.
Sam
I can't help but wonder if the end of the bear market will come when everyone takes responsibility for their own trading/investing, and not looking for someone else to blame.
Chairman Greenspan has a lot more on his plate than worrying about the effect on stocks in isolation of all other factors. Did anyone heed his warnings starting in 1998?
Not that he and I agree on every detail, but when it comes to trading/investing (thinking valuation, sectors, trends, and technical/fundamental market factors), he only plays a small part of the consideration and shouldn't accept anymore blame than he contributes to trading decisions.
Something to think about anyway.
Sam
No shorts screened out for tomorrow, MACR did well today and should still have room below. It was a good day all around. The site is updated.
Sam
http://www.savvy-trader.com
The Winston-Salem paper made an important correction regarding their story about Jay. Scroll to the bottom of this:
http://journalnow.com/wsj/news/MGB0SXZUIBD.html
Sam
I had a program conflict lock things up this evening, making it late to get finished. Nevertheless, the rise in the market today wasn't enough to break the downward pattern, so I'm still cautious, even though I did buy AMSG today.
Sam
Picking shorts has been easy, time to look for some bounces, nothing but breakdown short came up on the screening for tomorrow, and those are high risk.
Sam
Responding to the loss:
"In lieu of flowers, an education fund has been established for the children. Checks may be made to: Laura Lyons, c/o Edward Jones Investments, 2901 Lyndhurst Ave., Winston-Salem, NC 27103; or call (336) 765-3355 for more information."
Sam
Photo of Jay and family.
Laura, Allen, Jay, Sofia.
Jay was so in love with his family:
<jay> Sofia made a bunch of signs and taped them on her door
<Jen> What were the signs about?
<jay> "You no yure wakin into the coolest room you evre sen"
<Jen> Dogs?
<jay> "the byooty porlr is this way"
<Jen> lol
<dcowboys> lol
<jay> "nic ponytal, are you sure yu're not a fashenmotl"
<jay> "when you open this door you wont belyv yur eyes"
<dcowboys> lol
<Jen> cute
<jay> There must be 8 or 10 of them, those are the ones that crack me up the most
<Jen> Positive imaging
<jay> Yeah, if you imagining yourself to be Barbi <G>
For those that want to send your sympathies to Jay's family, rather than put his address in a public form, I'll put ours. I will forward all the letters to Laura, Allen and Sofia.
Sam Crowe
5120 Chuckwagon Trail
Casper, WY 82604
Site is updated for tomorrow.
Sam
I'll open the chat room up to anyone that wants to come to the site and visit regarding the tragic loss of Jay Lyons. Just drop me note sam@savvy-trader.com and I'll send you a password. There are only a couple in the room and we are all in shock.
Sam
We are very saddened by this news:
http://journalnow.com/wsj/news/MGBSAVPU8BD.html
Sam
The number of potential shorts on our screening dropped off, which might indicate that the market is short term oversold. Though we may get a bounce, I'd remain cautious...
Sam
http://www.savvy-trader.com
Market continues risky, we'll continue waiting it out in our fox holes....
Sam
I've updated the site for tomorrow, between the economy and the political situation, everyone might have to be ducking and dodging for awhile.
Sam
MKTBUZZ, sorry I missed you. Regarding HDWR: I like HDWR but would wait for it to find support since it recently hit that support/resistance line above 16, 15 may hold this week and be good, otherwise I'd look again at about 14.25. I would think that the company will benefit from the current market/political environment and you might get into a good company at a discount. Nevertheless let the dust settle a day or two before you pick up a position.
Sam
Even though the market is closed today I'm here working and thought I'd open the site up so people can look around and even come to the room and chat if you like...no registration or anything.
User ID: would be guest@savvy-trader.com
Password: guest1
Sam
http://www.savvy-trader.com
lol, Matt, I don't know about your stock picks...but your photo picks are nice. <g>
Sam
Our positive market signal lasted 10 days. By the looks of things, we might be sitting in "lite" mode for a while. I would figure the Iraq situation alone will make the going tough over the next month.
We made multiple point gains in AMSG (sold yesterday), CYMI, DRS, ESPD, FCX, NET and SMTC. Took losses in HD, JCOM, SNDK, PRV Gains under a point in AGY, CDN and GPRO.
Sam
http://www.savvy-trader.com
This is where the SSRatio shows us the value of market risk, the ratio dropped 0.14, at -0.02 favoring selling, the estimate of market risk climbs to high. The positive period has lasted exactly 10 days, so back to "lite" mode. Since some stocks go counter market it is best just to raise your stop rather than outright sell your position, and add any new long positions trading fewer shares than your normal.
Sam
Market risk has (as I was afraid of happening) moved to high. So rather than letting the market bring your stocks down or just selling outright, I'd raise the stop just under the highest support. Any long buys at this point would be stocks that look to be moving counter market, and even then, be smaller number of shares than normal. I'll be updating the site shortly.
Sam
Energy stocks might be the play, but if we don't see some internal strength shortly we'll have to up the market risk and tighten our stops. Site is updated.
Sam
The only new short term addition for today was PPP, but the energy sector has the energy today.
Sam
The SSRatio continues to lose momentum, but market risk remains low for the time being.
Sam
Intel (INTC) beat earnings expectations by 2 cents and beat the revenue estimate. This is a real good report... if you expected a real bad one, but otherwise it is hard to call it robust and their capital spending estimate slapped the conductor equipment manufactures.
Sam
I missed much of the market today, seemed relatively subdued looking at the numbers and the results of the screening. There is only the same short term stock and a three potential breakouts to watch tomorrow.
Sam
There is one short term trade that screened out for tomorrow. I'd still like to see a few days of a down market to improve the risk/reward and get more stocks look at.
Sam