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Kiwi,
Thanks for the read. I can now put a more formal name to my idea of 'risk/reward ratio'. I agree with the thesis of the article and don't see how it contradicts my undiversified investment strategy.
My portfolio will certainly swing more dramatically than yours (I've been over 50% in the red before, and it hardly bothered me) but at the end of the day, assuming we are equally adept at picking winning companies, we're likely to achieve similar outcomes.
Biotech business fascinates me (pursuing a related Master's, as it happens), but it isn't my day job. Even with no family, I couldn't possibly balance my life with researching/following even just four companies.
I really do appreciate the advice though, and especially this article, linked to the one you sent me:
http://www.joshuakennon.com/gt-advanced-technologies-bankruptcy/
Definitely a cautionary tale worth reading.
PS: my historical ROI is higher. :P
Biochica,
You bring up something I forgot to mention. I have a separate TSP retirement account that is diversified since TSP funds are index funds, comprising approx 30% of my total portfolio. So I guess I am misleading by saying I'm 100%.
NNVC... nanotech to defeat viruses is fascinating idea. I would need to see some clinical human data to really jump for that though.
I'm not shy.
message me: kogut.joseph@gmail.com
I'll have a report for you. Surf on!
Kiwi,
First let me say I respect your experience. I work in an 'industry' where experience and age has an extra high premium.
If I worked for VW I sure as shit wouldn't invest in VW. I guess I'll be less cryptic and just say I work in a very secure federal job.
No, I am not Jan "the Cock".
I think my personal financial security scenario is different than most retail investors. If RI is complete disaster, 0% efficacy, I'll be still be ahead of 90% of Americans my age.
Moreover, reviewing the data of JELIS, ANCHOR, etc. (initially with deep skepticism; I first came to this stock only convinced of 1A win, hoping for a quick 10-20%) I have become convinced that V is a very promising drug for CVD.
sts,
super-belated thanks, I don't know how I missed your response.
Walsh,
First, do you think Warren Buffett (I know it sounds cliche) or Bill Browder diversified their portfolios when they were starting out?
Second, AMRN is not a penny stock. It teeters between small- and micro- cap at the 500M mark. Penny stocks are traded OTC pink sheets not NASDAQ (some exceptions like DSCO or OMEX). It is a credible company with a potential (oh that dangerous word) market of over a billion annually.
If it's a penny stock, and penny stocks are foolish, why are you here?
Kiwi,
I suspect Raf and I are operating on congruent investment philosophies:
IMO, putting all your eggs in one basket makes a lot of sense for a young guy like me. I focus on one company, do my DD, and bear the responsibility for my success or failure. I want to learn hard lessons about both success and failure. Call it conviction, call it folly. I've faced more harrowing decisions in my life. I'm 26, no kids, and have a super-secure career. I understand why those with families, obligations, etc would mitigate their risk, but that's not my situation.
At the end of the day, I'm 'gambling' on the same die you are. Do you know how it will land?
Out of curiosity and boredom...
For those bold enough to say, what percentage of your portfolio is in AMRN?
I'm100%, balls to the wall
HDG,
If I'm correctly understanding your statement and the stats, you're saying that AMRN's tepid enrollment numbers indicate placebo rate thus far 'appears' (since AMRN is blinded) to be above 5.2%, perhaps even as high as 5.9%?
haha he just sparked my curiosity. My original investment thesis was winning the 1st A case. My plan was to hop into Amarin and enjoy a nice 10% pop off what I thought was a certain victory, and then swing back over to CRIS by late 3Q or early 4Q. All of my predictions except AMRNs PPS have been on point so far, but it hardly matters now. After digging deeper into the science and studies, I became convinced AMRN is something worth sitting on for a while. Now if I can just convince my old man to take some V with his statins...
Not sure if you mean how I stumbled into it, or how I became convinced it was a worthwhile company
I initiated a position in CRIS last year and turned a nice profit. I thought CRIS had gone from undervalued to appropriately valued so I started to hunt for some new deals. A dude by the callsign of Bangtime started talking about AMRN and I was intrigued.
As for how I went from intrigued to convinced, that's a longer journey. I sheepishly admit that I put my money on the table wayyyy before I had done enough DD. But the deeper I've gone down this rabbit hole (can you say conspiracy theories?! haha) the more comfortable I am with the position I've taken.
Why do you wonder?
yeah my point is army dudes aren't always dunces. also I've been dying to use the phrase 'squished fish'.
Raf,
I totally agree, but having come into AMRN as a huge skeptic 3 months ago, I have to point out that many of the retail guys out there don't think Jan/Feb/Mar when they hear 'interim in 2016'. They have heard so many CEO's overpromise/underdeliver that they add at least a 6-month penalty to the assumption.
What they don't understand, and neither did I in the beginning, is that this is highly predictable due to its event-driven nature.
You do realize it's very possible for someone to have gone to MIT, been in 'Nam, and then later attend Harvard (perhaps on the Montgomery GI Bill?), right? In fact to me it sounds like a fairly reasonable career trajectory (it echoes my own/ my ambitions).
But yes, perhaps he's a megalomaniac. Perhaps I'm a serial killer. Perhaps V is just squished fish.
On the one hand, I'm inclined to agree with you, Marky Mark. Ihub is an awful medium. Perhaps it's better if one is a subscriber (hey, I'm cheap).
But its clumsiness has tremendous merit; How many spammers and people spouting inane verbal vomit do you see here relative to YMB or ST? It isn't perfect, but it is a haven for rational and developed analyses that you don't find elsewhere.
Perhaps there is some IT prodigy lurking on this board who could propose alternatives? Or should I just stop being a cheapskate? :P Sorry guys I'm poor... for now...
JL,
I like the description of Random Walk as nihilistic. However, I do think it captures some truths about the market, mostly in regards to 'blue chip' consumer companies. Those companies are watched by legions of professional and well-connected analysts. A retail investor in such a company is, in my opinion, at the whims of macro-economic forces to broad and complex to anticipate.
That's what I love so much about small cap biotechs as well as foreign investments in the developing world (carefully watching AVGR:LI)... lack of coverage/interest breeds ignorance, and ignorance breeds opportunity. Bill Browder built a hedge fund empire (and made a powerful enemy) by convincing clueless Russians to trade their stock certificates for a bottle of vodka... I think he's my Stock Operator role model, but let's see if the boy plunger can knock him off that pedestal...
Sir,
Ironically, I googled your name and realized it's psuedonymic nature just as you posted. I will certainly be diving into that book this weekend in between diving into some florida springs :D
I'm particularly intrigued by the review you posted. I've always been deeply skeptical of technical trading (instigated by Random Walk Down WS), though I admit certain limits to the Randomness Theory. Certainly Michael Lewis' Flash Boys has illustrated that the market is not perfectly efficient. And I think I saw for my own eyes some market inefficiency when word broke here on IHUB regarding first A litigation.
'trading' with disregard to inherent value (earnings or potential earnings) has never appealed to me, but I'm always willing to consider new perspectives...
- Hawk
Raf,
haha I would read it in a heartbeat. The science aspect of this business is my weakness. I'm a well-educated dude, but teaching a pilot to be a scientist is like trying to teach a penguin to fly.
JL,
I think I failed to fully develop my thoughts on that post. I agree 100% Amarin can negate the risks by letting the FDA screen materials in advance, and that permitting proactive truth/non-misleading communication is better for society.
However, if FDA claimed it was a misleading study or that it's intended use by Amarin was misleading, I think things might be a bit messy for Amarin to be allowed to communicate it, particularly if it is after a final ruling is issued for the case. Would Judge E reopen the case? would a new case be brought? I don't think it's a likely or important scenario, but I'm entertaining all possibilities.
As an aside, I want to thank you and all the other heavy-hitters on this board for your hard work and critical thinking. I'm just a young punk, but I've been in the biotech game for 8 years now (starting with DSCO, *shudders*), and I've learned more in the last few months here than I have from any other board (YMB aka the stock-slums) or book.
And on that note, does anyone have any good investing/finance books to recommend?
I've covered most of the 'basics' (Intelligent Investor, Random Walk Down WS, etc). Maybe something with some biotech flavor?
As I understand it, Amarin might be risking legal exposure by communicating this study, since it isn't one of the 13 reprints the court specifically declared truthful and non-misleading by the Court.
"The Court therefore holds, and the FDA does not dispute, that Amarin’s dissemination of these
reprints, under the circumstances proposed, would be neither false nor misleading."
That said, the chance of FDA proving such a communication untruthful(0%) or misleading(<1%) is so low it's worth the risk
My gf is Polish, and her father makes salo from boars he hunts. That stuff tastes amazing. Or maybe it's just my Polish blood and Midwestern roots
CVD runs in the family!
Hey all, a few noobish questions from a youngster still learning the biotech ropes...
1. In the JELIS report, researchers state "Third, this trial was substantially underpowered for
analysis of subgroups"
If it was, then how did they later determine the 53% MACE reduction for the TG > 150 / HDL-C < 40 subgroup? Were they simply too hasty in publishing the original report? When I read "underpowered" my thought is that they did not track the data required to denote subgroups, but perhaps what is really meant is that they did not fully analyze the data because it was overwhelming?
2. NCE vs Patent protection... once NCE expires (let's not get into the when debate), then generics may submit ANDAs for FDA approval, and FDA may approve, but if generics market the drug for a use already protected by one of V's numerous patents, Amarin's legal team can take them to court in USCA. Am I understanding this process correctly? And what are the chances Amarin would lose a patent infringement case for the RI market (all of this presumes successful RI outcomes, of course)? Basically 0%, right?
3. How the the $#% do I find a definitive and authoritative list of patents associated with Vascepa, icosapent ethyl, AMR-101, whatever they call it? I expected it to be an easy find on USPTO's website, but I'm failing hard.
4. I'm considering putting some leverage in place on AMRN, preferably using long calls due to their limited risk profile. If I get some long-term (say January) long calls and a buyout happens before then, I will profit so long as they are in the money, right? Are there any hardcore believers on this board who are using a similar strategy to leverage AMRNs potential?
TIA
I'll be the chauffeur, but y'all gotta chip in; helo gas isn't cheap
1. This Court lacks subject matter jurisdiction to entertain Plaintiffs’ Complaint.
FDAs new motto
Ok I'm gonna sound ignorant now, but what's the difference in effect?
Help me I'm just a clueless pilot...
insert-text-here
Thanks!
Can someone school up a noob on the benefits/drawbacks of PCSK9 compared to V?
My understanding is that the primary differences are that V is cheaper and has a better safety/side effect profile
Great point. Amazing that I pondered this all day with no result, and you saw an interesting detail in just a cursory glance... I guess that's what experience and expertise do