Flying high with AYSI
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ASPN - CEOCast Interview: Anyone listen, thoughts? My rambling notes while I listened are as follows:
Good general information. Discussed deep light oil well play that should have information within a month. Hoping for the best on that well and mentioned it is adjacent to a field that has produced 7M barrels in the past.
Aquisitions are tough, but getting easier. Discussed the prices of discovery vs. purchasing a field. Looking at many options, but won't chase high price. Currently no gas hedges, but it typically comes in to play when things get volatile. May have opportunities later. ASPN has had good success with getting drilling rigs with 3 currently running. ASPN is popular with drillers because they pay immediately with good advance planning. Thinks this year will be in excess of 10 wells. If oil well is successful, things may accelerate a bit. Shareholders should look for increases in production and profitable quarters.
Mat
MDF - Todays PR for the overview of MDF at the Conference reminds me of an interview I heard a few weeks ago on Money Talk where they discussed that the biggest/most successful companies typically have an inside/outside leadership relationship like Bill Gates/Paul Allen. One leader focused on the inside operations of the company while the other specialized in marketing the company and working the "outside" relationships. Granted MDF is not a huge company, but it appears to me that Earley and Finnel are following this methodology and as an investor it gives me higher confidence in their eventual success via MDF.
Mat
MDF - As much as I like this stock long term, I sold 10% today at $2.75 and have another 10% limit at $2.84 for the day. I would be ecstatic to see it continue a steady climb, but past history with MDF indicates we will have a bit of a run and then a slow deterioration for a bit before the next climb. I do expect that even with slowing HMO membership growth we should be in the $3s by the end of the year. The two items that could derail that plan are a large increase in costs due to expansion or a reversal in the HMO growth. I would hate to see MDF bought out at this stage of the game, I would be much happier to reap the benefits of a profitable HMO over the next couple of years before that, if it happens. I can't complain, MDF has been more than a triple overall for me over the last few years.
Mat
ibox updated with the latest information. I wonder why it took so long to commence sales on Street #1-3 since it was tested back in November? Although drilling success is good, I am starting to fear the next filing will be disappointing due to decreasing gas prices and the unknown decreases in well production over time. Hopefully we are pleasantly surprised, but I may lighten my position somewhat as we approach the next filing.
Mat
ibox updated with the latest information. Hopefully we will hear something about the oil well sometime soon.
Mat
Hopefully this latest news will lead to revenues. I am tempted to buy back in some, I put in a limit order, but no luck today.
Mat
PDGE - Well I took out 3,500 shares of support at $1.51. I still hold a small position and I did sell at a small profit, but PDGE has been disappointing for too long,
Mat
MDF - Well, I told myself under $2.50 was a good price and I did have some cash from selling EGY and GIGM, so yes, I am the proud owner of another 3K shares of MDF. I realize a general down term in the market will take it all down and I don't relish that thought, but I am much better diversified than I was in 2000 when there was all kinds of blood in the water. Best of luck to all, Len has certainly been the seer of the board lately.
Mat
Stanu - MDF, the other element you forgot is "low income" patients. Early indicated that the low income group can continue to enroll beyond 6/30.
Mat
Stanu - MDF - Thanks for the link to the presentation, it was excellent! It was great to listen and to see the presentation slides! I told myself I am completely loaded up, but the presentation made me want to buy more at the $2.50 level. Points that jumped out at me:
Confirmation of 5-6K breakeven
Good discussion of current low penetration and growth opportunity
Charts on increases in per patient $ and profit
Discussion that PSN MER expected 88-90%, but HMO is expected in low 80s
Discussion of importance of May date, end of June and other potential for new customers
More detail on expansion plans that will triple the number of eligible customers (300K + 700K)
Thanks,
Mat
It sure is enjoyable when Cohen/ASPN is in drill result reporting mode! Hopefully the summer is filled with periodic success results just like this!
Mat
I updated the ibox to include recent information provided. I removed the pro-forma since we are past that, but maybe BW will be willing to make additional predictions later this year?
Thanks,
Mat
Bobwins - ASPN, your points are well taken, but from my perspective as long as ASPN continues to increase production it will be a good bet going forward. I am very curious about the 4 wells referenced below and why we haven't heard testing results on these wells? Would it be because ASPN is not the lead driller, or because they were small producers? Also, the previous PR indicated 1 drill rig, but today they mention two with a third about to start. Successful drilling throughout the summer and fall can be nothing but good. Has anyone found additional details on the 4 wells identified below?
Mat
Aspen also participated in the drilling of four gas wells which are operated by other companies. One of these wells is located in the Malton Black Butte Field, Tehama County, California, two are located in the Grimes Gas Field, Colusa County, California, and one is located in the Lindsey Slough Field, Solano County, California. All four of these wells were successful; one is currently producing, two have been tested and are awaiting a pipeline connection, and the other has been logged and is waiting on a completion rig. Aspen operates numerous producing gas wells in the Grimes and Malton Black Butte Fields.
OT: Brinker: Len, did you listen to the entire Brinker show? I just finished listening to it on my IPOD and I am amazed that you were disappointed in Brinker if you listened to the whole show. It is true that he quickly lost patience with the inaccurate statements that I believe she unintentionally made and he cut her off I believe because he didn't want to confuse the audience. He had about a dozen additional calls regarding unemployment throughout the show where he discussed some of the vagaries you mention, but he did summarize with something akin to OTC in saying it has been measured consistently for a long time and the numbers are what they are. The most interesting call was a lady who works on the surveys related to the household unemployment survey. My personal opinion is that, although it is not perfect, it is a decent barometer and unemployment in the US is definately the envy of the rest of the world, hands down. We continue to be the land of opportunity. I have no interest in an argument, but that call did not accurately reflect Brinker's coverage of the unemployment rate.
Mat
EGY - Well I sold my 1K shares at $7.71 based upon the big run-up and the nice profit from my $3.30 purchase price. I also got the chance to read the article in Business Weekly magazine for hot growth stocks where EGY was at the top of the list. I may miss out on continued increase in pps, but I am thinking it may drift back below $7 and I may buy back. If MDF continues its steady climb I may need to sell a bit and diversify. The VMC engine appears to be coming to life somewhat. Hopefully it helps me work my way up the PSL3 ladder.
Mat
ASPN, hopefully this is the beginning of a successful drilling season.
Mat
ASPN--3.80--Aspen Exploration Kicks Off Spring Drilling Program With New Gas Well
5/30/2006
Announces Additional Drilling Activity
DENVER, CO, May 30, 2006 (MARKET WIRE via COMTEX News Network) --
Aspen Exploration Corporation (OTCBB: ASPN), with offices in Bakersfield, California, and Denver, Colorado, announced today a new gas well in the Sacramento Valley gas province of northern California.
The Zimmerman #22-2 well, located in the Rice Creek Field, Tehama County, California, was drilled to a depth of 5,600 feet and encountered approximately 75 feet of net gas pay in several intervals in the Forbes formation. Production casing was run based on favorable mud log and electric log responses. Aspen has a 23.33% operated working interest in this well. This was the sixth successful gas well out of seven attempts by Aspen in this field. All of the wells Aspen drilled in this area were drilled based on a 3-D seismic survey acquired by Aspen several years ago. Aspen plans to drill three more wells in this field this year.
Aspen also announced the commencement of operations at the Orca-Fee 32X-23 well, a 14,500 foot high potential Stevens Sand oil test located in Kern County, California. The average recoverable oil reserves in this vicinity are approximately 800,000 barrels of light oil per well. If the Orca-Fee well is successful, it could lead to multiple additional drilling locations.
Aspen plans to have at least one drilling rig running for the next several months to drill its various prospects located in the West Grimes, Malton Black Butte, Buckeye, and Rice Creek Gas Fields in the Sacramento Valley of northern California.
Aspen drilled ten successful gas wells out of ten attempts in 2004 for a 100% success rate, and nine gas wells out of ten attempts in 2005. During the last 5 1/2 years, Aspen has participated in the drilling of 37 operated wells, 32 of which were completed as gas wells, and 5 dry holes which were plugged and abandoned, a success rate of 86%. Aspen currently operates 53 gas wells and has non-operated interests in 20 additional wells in the Sacramento Valley of northern California, and has an exciting drilling program planned for 2006.
Future news releases will keep shareholders informed of Aspen's continuing progress and drilling activity. Aspen's stock is quoted on the OTC Bulletin Board under the symbol ASPN.OB. For more information concerning Aspen, contact Bob Cohan, President and CEO, in Aspen's Bakersfield office at (661) 831-4669. Aspen's web page can be found at www.aspenexploration.com.
ASPN--3.80--Aspen Exploration Kicks Off Spring Drilling Program With New Gas Well
5/30/2006
Announces Additional Drilling Activity
DENVER, CO, May 30, 2006 (MARKET WIRE via COMTEX News Network) --
Aspen Exploration Corporation (OTCBB: ASPN), with offices in Bakersfield, California, and Denver, Colorado, announced today a new gas well in the Sacramento Valley gas province of northern California.
The Zimmerman #22-2 well, located in the Rice Creek Field, Tehama County, California, was drilled to a depth of 5,600 feet and encountered approximately 75 feet of net gas pay in several intervals in the Forbes formation. Production casing was run based on favorable mud log and electric log responses. Aspen has a 23.33% operated working interest in this well. This was the sixth successful gas well out of seven attempts by Aspen in this field. All of the wells Aspen drilled in this area were drilled based on a 3-D seismic survey acquired by Aspen several years ago. Aspen plans to drill three more wells in this field this year.
Aspen also announced the commencement of operations at the Orca-Fee 32X-23 well, a 14,500 foot high potential Stevens Sand oil test located in Kern County, California. The average recoverable oil reserves in this vicinity are approximately 800,000 barrels of light oil per well. If the Orca-Fee well is successful, it could lead to multiple additional drilling locations.
Aspen plans to have at least one drilling rig running for the next several months to drill its various prospects located in the West Grimes, Malton Black Butte, Buckeye, and Rice Creek Gas Fields in the Sacramento Valley of northern California.
Aspen drilled ten successful gas wells out of ten attempts in 2004 for a 100% success rate, and nine gas wells out of ten attempts in 2005. During the last 5 1/2 years, Aspen has participated in the drilling of 37 operated wells, 32 of which were completed as gas wells, and 5 dry holes which were plugged and abandoned, a success rate of 86%. Aspen currently operates 53 gas wells and has non-operated interests in 20 additional wells in the Sacramento Valley of northern California, and has an exciting drilling program planned for 2006.
Future news releases will keep shareholders informed of Aspen's continuing progress and drilling activity. Aspen's stock is quoted on the OTC Bulletin Board under the symbol ASPN.OB. For more information concerning Aspen, contact Bob Cohan, President and CEO, in Aspen's Bakersfield office at (661) 831-4669. Aspen's web page can be found at www.aspenexploration.com.
Loneclone,
I saw the same section. Do you think the 4 new wells are the winter drilling program? I have not taken the time to cross-reference the information yet. Pretty depressing result to add to the declining NG prices.
Mat
Anyone do any analysis of the 10Q yet? I must say that the PR is exactly what I had hoped for as a best case scenario. My quick look at the 10Q further reinforced that opinion and I particularly liked the quote below. To think they were able to grow revenue, improve MER, and expand the HMO to 3,500 while still increasing cash flow and net income is pretty impressive. If I read the PSN and HMO revenue breakout it appears that we are 2/3 of the way to HMO breakeven. Am I reading this correctly? The wisdom of this esteemed board would be much appreciated. I certainly plan to buy more.
Mat
The Company anticipates that, for at least the next twelve months, the HMO's ongoing development efforts, reserve requirements and operating costs will be funded by the Company's current cash resources and projected cash flows from operations, and expects to lose approximately $3.0 million to $5.0 million in 2006 for this continued development. The HMO has filed expansion applications for several additional Florida counties. While no assurance is given that approval will be granted to operate in any or all of these counties, the Company has been investing resources in network development efforts for this expansion. Enrollments in these new markets could begin as early as January 2007, with marketing and sales efforts commencing in late 2006.
MDF:
Anyone do any analysis of the 10Q yet? I must say that the PR is exactly what I had hoped for as a best case scenario. My quick look at the 10Q further reinforced that opinion and I particularly liked the quote below. To think they were able to grow revenue, improve MER, and expand the HMO to 3,500 while still increasing cash flow and net income is pretty impressive. If I read the PSN and HMO revenue breakout it appears that we are 2/3 of the way to HMO breakeven. Am I reading this correctly? The wisdom of this esteemed board would be much appreciated. I certainly plan to buy more.
Mat
The Company anticipates that, for at least the next twelve months, the HMO's ongoing development efforts, reserve requirements and operating costs will be funded by the Company's current cash resources and projected cash flows from operations, and expects to lose approximately $3.0 million to $5.0 million in 2006 for this continued development. The HMO has filed expansion applications for several additional Florida counties. While no assurance is given that approval will be granted to operate in any or all of these counties, the Company has been investing resources in network development efforts for this expansion. Enrollments in these new markets could begin as early as January 2007, with marketing and sales efforts commencing in late 2006.
SK,
Thanks for the update, it was great to see my name in the top 10 for PSL1 now. Now if I can only time the performance to coincide with PSL3...
Mat
The idea was that you have to select 6 distinct stocks to begin with, but if during the contest you decide that the stock with the most potential for gain is one you already own, you can sell another stock for 2 shares of an existing holding.
Mat
Len,
What caused you to decide against a "double down" rule? Just curious.
Mat
UCI Medical Affiliates, Inc. Reports Second Quarter Fiscal Year 2006 Results
May 03, 2006 14:01:46 (ET)
COLUMBIA, S.C., May 3, 2006 /PRNewswire-FirstCall via COMTEX/ -- UCI Medical Affiliates, Inc. (UCIA, Trade) announced today that revenue for the quarter ended March 31, 2006 increased 8% to $16,971,000 from $15,662,000 for the quarter ended March 31, 2005.
The Company reported a 7% increase in net income to $1,007,000 or $.10 per share for the quarter ended March 31, 2006, as compared to net income of $941,000 ($.10 per share) for the quarter ended March 31, 2005. (During the six month period last fiscal year, there were two one-time tax adjustments including a tax benefit of $4,495,000 recorded during the quarter ended December 31, 2004; and a tax expense of $987,000 recorded during the quarter ended March 31, 2005.)
"Our Company has produced solid second quarter improvement, in both revenues and bottom line performance, despite what the CDC terms an 'unusually mild' flu season," said Dr. Michael Stout, President and Chief Executive Officer. "We have focused especially on patient satisfaction and expanded services for those patients and we feel this strategy has met with reasonable success. We remain committed to delivering quality service in convenient, neighborhood locations that are open evenings and weekends -- our sense is that keeping to this core strategy gives us the foundation on which we can grow, both in locations and in service offerings for our patients."
The Company's March 31, 2006 balance sheet reflects total assets of $24,342,000 as compared to $23,399,000 at September 30, 2005 while stockholders' equity at March 31, 2006 was $15,124,000 as compared to $13,321,000 at September 30, 2005.
"I am proud of the sustained success of our Company as we have expanded in our range of services to pediatrics, orthopaedics and soon a wellness center," said Jerry F. Wells, Jr., CPA, Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President.
UCI Medical Affiliates, Inc. provides nonmedical management and administrative services for a network of 49 freestanding medical centers, 48 of which are located throughout South Carolina and one is located in Knoxville, Tennessee (30 operating as Doctors Care in South Carolina, one as Doctors Care in Knoxville, Tennessee, 16 as Progressive Physical Therapy Services in South Carolina, one as Luberoff Pediatrics in South Carolina, and one as Carolina Orthopaedic and Sports Medicine in South Carolina).
DJE, I am surprised too. I also got out at $1.75 because I expect a dip down to previous prices where I can buy back later.
Mat
DJE, Great run so I put in a limit order at $2 for a third of my holdings. Too bad I only have a few K shares but whos complaining? It will be interesting to find out the basis of the run.
Mat
Any GIGM owners out there? I bought some back in the $2.40 range and it has been extremely good to me. I picked it for PSL1, but unfortunately I wasn't smart enough to carry it through to PSL2. Timing is everthing. Did anyone else by gaming stocks back during the PRTY IPO? I bought GIGM and WGMGY and have been very happy. I am sure someone out there made a killing investing in the sector of the market. Glad to see MDF digging out of its hole, but I fear ASPN will be down for awhile unless we have some big drilling news. Hope it is a green day for everyone!
Mat
BW,
GG has been very good to me as well. I bought some Wht back when you first discussed it and the transition to GG has been nice. It is a very small portion of my portfolio, but has been a nice investment.
Mat
I will go with Duke, Syr, WV, Texas, Ark, Pitt, Zaps, UCLA, Conn, Ilinni, NC, Tenn, Villanova, BC, OK, OSU
Syr, Texas, Pitt, Zags, Conn, NC, Villanova, OSU
Texas, Pitt, NC, OSU
Texas, NC
Texas
Thanks,
Mat
Len
Is this true? I knew there was something I liked about you. How did a Suns fan make it to Kansas? I have been a fan since I went to ASU for college. Do you think Amare will come back for the playoffs?
"I root for the Phoenix Suns"
Mat
Bobwins,
What is you current read on CZE? Are you still bullish? I am up, so I can't complain but a little pop would be helpful for the contest.
Mat
Barry,
What are your thoughts? I unloaded most of my shares but I do continue to watch for signs of life. Hopefully the merger will lead to bigger and better things.
Mat
SSK, Enquiring minds want to know? As we inch toward the 10M unfortunately I will be in a van driving to Spokane Washington. Oh well, I will go ahead and contribute to the countdown although I will not get to view the big finish. Best of luck to all!
Mat
Congratulations to all those that bought two days ago. We are headed back up the mountain and I for one hope for a slow steady rise. Some good positive news on drilling sometime in the next month would certainly help.
Mat
Question, is it allowable to trade one stock for another that you already have in your pick 6? A double down? Thus, one would end up with 2 shares of the same stock in your portfolio? If you answered this previously, I apologize.
Thanks,
Mat
Well, I tried to pick up a few 100 shares in the $4.20s with no luck. Hopefully we have reached the bottom and it is all up from here. If not, I guess I might get the order filled tomorrow.
Mat
ASPN, I would agree with SSK that now would be a good time to buy. I think we had a bit of a perfect storm on the up side, pardon the pun, in the fall. Now we are having a perfect storm in the other direction. If ASPN can continue to be successful with drilling and if they can start to increase reserves pps will go back where we would like to see it.
Mat
Digi,
Nice week, you are crushing me. I hope to at least get into positive return in the next month.
Mat
Len/Echos:
I do continue as a republican, although my sentiments mirror yours described below. With each passing day I become more exasperated at the poor excuse for a government that is currently in place. The worst part is that it continues to degrade with no improvement in sight. I too live within my means and I will gladly pay some additional taxes, although I prefer a smaller govt., but I think we all must demand those taxes be spent wisely, which is not the case in an exceedingly large number of cases.
Mat
"As far as which party wants to do which... I have stated many times why I am no longer a Republican. They blew it. Here they have both houses of Congress, and the Presidency, and they increased the size of the Federal Government by 33% in 3 years? What happened to the Contract with America and a balanced budget? What happened to a small government?
Again, I hate paying taxes, especially for run away spending. So if your asking me who I trust... what are my choices? Continue to trust the GOP?? For how long? When are you going to give up? What other choice do I have than to support the Dems and hope for a split government and a stalemate? Sorry, but I think we had some pretty good years with an opposition party in control of one branch of government. Frankly, I dont really care which.
And lastly, I'm not saying to raise taxes, I'm saying to balance the budget. Now if that means going back to pre-Bush tax rates in order to finance the war, Katrina, and every other friggn thing we spend money on, then so be it. Again, I pay my bills and I dont spend above my means. If we cant cut spending without cutting the services required to run the goverment, then guess what, we need raise taxes."
BW, nice analysis, as usual. All of the frustration and conspiracy analysis amuses me based upon where ASPN has come from in the last 2 years. Cohan has earned my trust, although admitedly I have sold shares along the way to great advantage. I certainly can't blame him for a need to diversify. I do think his ability to grow is limited with the small staff in the long run, but I would expect ASPN would be a nice takeover target at some point along the way. Regardless, ASPN looks like a good investment going forward as long as the high rate of success continues and ASPN demonstrates an increase in reserves. I am surprised at the fall based upon the great recent news, but the market is not always logical.
Mat