Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
25M in T-Trades today is my guess. Probably around the penny mark.
It depends. Once they have a 5 day average that's around say .01, there would be no point to diluting it to keep it around .01. They've already locked that many shares in. At that point (and this is true of every 5 day average level) their options are to either try to drive it lower and get more shares or to let it rise so they can sell remaining shares higher. Which they choose depends on the level of resistance the market gives them. If it is going to take dumping 50M shares to drive the price .001 lower then it might not be worth it but if it only takes 10M shares to drive it that much lower then it might be.
Basically at some price they hit a point of resistance where the amount of effort needed to dilute further is not worth the gain. However, they might not ever even reach that point if they run out of shares before they get there. Also they have to balance that with the fact that if they burn more shares than they earn (they sold all 435M but they only earned 320M once the calculation was finalized) then they will need to buy the difference in shares back likely at a higher price.
It is my opinion that if they were smart they sold as many shares as possible on Day 1 and Day 2 of dilution when the share price was higher. This gives them a bigger return for shares sold and would help drive the price down further earning them more shares. They may have wanted to replace those day 1 and day 2 VWAP prices with lower ones before news gets released.
Here is what I have someone please let me know if they have different: Day 1 VWAP (april 22nd) - .0146, Day 2 .0136, Day 3 .0117, Day 4 .0114, Day 5 .0115.
Today's very low VWAP will replace Day 1's which is a boost for Iron if the amount of shares needed to dilute it down this far doesn't exceed the gain in shares from the new 5 day average. Keeping in mind the opportunity cost of diluting at these price levels vs. holding and selling at higher prices.
That's why they gave them 435M
It is about 9.9% of the total outstanding shares once you add 435M to the 3.9B. They will never get any more than 435M they can only give shares back.
Yamaha!
They weren't saying that there have been 1600 complaints about Motovox in Walmart stores. They were saying that there are 1600 complaints about Walmart so compare that to the only 4 complaints about Motovox. Interesting that you found Motovox sold in Walmart though can you post that please?
Hey you deserve a break. Make sure you buy yourself a nice vacation once APTM hits 1000%.
IronRidge is capped at 435M shares. They can't dilute beyond that point. It would be impossible for them to dilute through $50M worth of volume because they only received $4.3M worth of shares.
Thanks for clarification.
What are you talking about I am long and have been forever. That post was in response to 8th's joke that we are literally going to the moon with the new application for the SonicFlow. Settle down and take a deep breath.
I was under the impression that the 14C contains certain financial information about the company. E and E also confirmed that the upcoming announcement will address share structure.
Ha we kept tellin' them and they wouldn't believe us.
I also think they know that the 14C with financials is coming shortly. They are taking the opportunity to get a day or two more of low PPS before APT announces and it bounces hard.
Just 4 complaints in 110,000 sold. Pretty good not to mention no complaints since last August.
One thing is clear.
APT is going to have a tough time getting the penny stock folks to act like real investors. Can't see a good thing when it's right in front of them. APT has sales = 50% of their market cap at this point.
One thing is clear.
APT is going to have a tough time getting the penny stock folks to act like real investors. Can't see a good thing when it's right in front of them. APT has sales = 50% of their market cap at this point.
Great post.
Give me a break.
They're going to bleed us dry? It's 435M shares in a worst case scenario. That 4.5M bucks. We trade 1.25M worth of shares a day. Oh no! 3.5 days worth of shares! How will we ever survive? Give it up. Oh and don't forget it's not really even that many shares. Right now it's at 320 by my count. That's less than three days of trade value.
Based on what? We've now traded 590M shares worth 7.5M since the agreement. The current 5 day VWAP would give Iron 316M shares. It simply doesn't benefit them to sell a ton of shares to continue holding the price down now. They maximize profit by waiting for the price to rise and selling any remaining shares then.
You haven't presented any reasonable argument to backup your point. Save the keystrokes please.
If you give me two more weeks of this I'll take 5M more.
26M expansion announced in 2012, 44M market cap. Do the math folks.
You won't get an announcement of completion until after satisfaction of the $50M correct. But the dilution will be over long before then.
I have 6.2M for the 22nd to the 25th. Averaging 1.54M per day. At that rate it would take 32.5 trading days to complete. But again, the calculation period doesn't matter. Iron already blew through the majority of their shares if they are smart and attempting to maximize profits. See previous posts.
APT isn't dumping. Iron is. APT is doing their best to get news out there so that the share price stays higher and Iron gets fewer shares. They are trying to prevent dilution IMO. Why are you upset that you just found out APT is expanding internationally and you get to buy cheap shares and not have to chase?
I don't think you understand how the debt agreement was structured very well. You are focusing on the $50M mark which is not the driving factor for whether they will dump or not. Please go back and read some of my posts on the matter. Hopefully it will help you.
You're welcome thanks for the kind words.
That's not how it's calculated and they have already issued 435M however they are going to get about 100M of those back at the current rate. I have some earlier posts that might help.
I'm an economist in RL. I actually enjoyed geeking out on that tongue twister they released in the filing.
I have been tracking the WVAP averages and my best guess is that Iron will get about 320M when it's all said and done. We've traded 480M shares since the agreement. I think that Iron is done dumping and they are holding any remaining for higher prices. Their website says they still hold shares from every deal they've ever done.
It is nasty but they did put a cap on it at 9.9% and only gave them 435M until the calculation period is over which limits Iron's incentives and ability to dump. Don't forget that APT has an incentive to drive the price up to limit dilution. That means that they are likely to give us a peek behind the curtain sooner rather than later so that the share price will more appropriately reflect the company's value. We are at a market cap of $50M for a company that plans to make $18M this year and is growing at 82% annually. This is not staying at this price!
Also don't forget that the IronRidge deal is capped at 9.9% of outstanding shares. That's the total they can't go over it no matter how long it takes to get through the calculation period.
Yes the 5 days is based on deductive reasoning. The terms say that they will take the lowest 5 day average price and use that to calculate the total number of shares they get. So it is a profit maximizing equation we are dealing with. Let me setup a mathematical formula which might be helpful for some and annoying to others.
Shares earned
X= (2,300,000*1.07)/((Y*80%)-.002)
Where X is the number of shares Iron gets and Y is the lowest 5 day WVAP average until we trade $50M worth of shares (approx. 35 trading days give or take).
Profit maximization occurs by receiving the largest number of shares and selling them at the highest price. Obviously to receive more shares they must ensure that the 5 day WVAP is as low as possible. They can lower the PPS buy dumping a bunch of shares. However as the PPS goes lower they received less money for their shares. The formula to maximize the profit by balancing keeping the price down and obtaining a good price for your shares is complicated. You need to know at what point driving the price down further to get additional shares becomes less profitable than waiting for the PPS to increase before selling remaining shares. Determining the appropriate equation would take a lot of knowledge or assumptions about the levels of resistance to both price increases and decreases from all the various factors involved. Basically if I could figure it out I wouldn’t be here right now I would be solving world hunger or some such.
Generally though we can make some logical conclusions. Iron would benefit from dumping the majority of their shares on day 1 and 2 when the prices are higher relative to where they will be on day 3 and 4 after the dilution has begun. The first two days of dumping serve them two ways, it gives them a higher price on their shares in the short term and it drives the price down which earns them more shares. Now as day 3 and 4 arrive and the share price goes lower the equation begins to balance out. This is because they only have a limited number of shares to work with (435M) and the market demand begins to increase as the price goes down (there is increased resistance giving them less bang for their buck).
In other words when the price was .0182 they might have needed to sell 20M to drop it by .002 and earn themselves 29M more shares. However once the price reaches the .013 range buying pressure picks up and now it might take 60M to drop it by .002. That’s 60M shares they could hang onto and sell at a higher price later once the financials come out. At some point the most profitable move becomes holding shares and waiting for a higher price to return before selling. They also want to minimize their risk of selling too many shares and being forced to buy back 100’s of millions of shares.
Long story short there’s no way to guarantee that they’re done but basic profit maximization strategy suggests that they most likely are.
Thanks!
She has admitted she owns the stock previously. Not sure why she chooses to only post negative perspectives and usually around the time of an inflection to higher pps but you guys can draw your own conclusions. I agree that her posting the legal docs were actually very helpful and made me feel better about the situation once I had read them.
Relic of the old company the are apparently planning to address in their shareholder letter likely out this week.
Reviewing the potential of profitability
We have some stated numbers on the revenues earned but very little on the expenses the company has. However one source is the news video mentions that they will have 2M in annual payroll by the end of 2012 and only be half done with the hiring.
http://www.kmbc.com/Motovox-Plans-Expansion-New-Jobs/13438126
So they might have had payroll as high as $2M in 2012 and Revenues of $11M. The article below estimates durable goods and manufacturing as having payroll expenses at 22% of their overall operating expenses on average. If that holds true for APT then their total operating expenses would be 9.09M. $11M - $9.09 = $1.91M profit. These are obviously just back of the envelope calculations but it shows that it's not crazy to think we may be profitable.
http://www.shrm.org/Research/Articles/Articles/Pages/MetricoftheMonthSalariesasPercentageofOperatingExpense.aspx
Also, here's a bit more detailed review from a professional review site on the mini bike.
http://www.infobarrel.com/Review_of_the_Motovox_2_Wheel_Gas_Scooter_-_MVS10
He's just saying that $1M worth of shares are traded each day since the merger. Nothing in there suggests further dilution, it was just a puff paragraph to show what a turnaround the stock has made.
InSitu is a subsidiary of Boeing. Not clear from the statement if they are partnered or just utilizing their technology. But if they have proved the benefits to InSitu, that would be huge!
Awesome find drone connections confirmed
Do you remember the name of the third guy?
Can you share vlf?