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Suncor Quarterly Profit Shrinks as Crude-Oil Price Falls
FWIW a very, very, very astute oil man (of yorktown partners) I have the pleasure of listening to thinks oil has more room to drop given the current market. At some point I hope oil co's get stupid cheap for just long enough for me to buy. CNQ and SU are at the top of that list. I'd be interested to hear others thoughts on oil prices or stocks.
Are you enrolled Biowatch? I am currently taking an almost identical class, and it is thought provoking to say the least. Yesterday a PK/PD expert from pfizer gave one of the deepest lectures I've ever listened to.
Doug,
What do you think the value of ACAD is with a negative ADP readout?
T.i.a.
(PCL) - Housing to Outrun Capital Spending in Next Leg of U.S. Growth
Though just a guess, perhaps it has something to do with benzos suppressing the amount of REM sleep.
Sanofi to Pay MannKind Up to $925m for Inhaled Insulin
EVGN now below its its IPO price of 14.75
Wondering out loud how much is business related and how much is conflict related?
DuPont sees no respite from weak farm sales in third quarter
SYT
With current sales of 14.7 billion and 2020 estimates of 25 billion that would imply a growth rate of about 10% per year. SYT sales increased 5% last year and a "similar rate" for 2014. How do you foresee them reaching their own targets by 2020?
Dough do you know when pima's ADP data is due?
I believe Bernanke made comments conveying a similar message at a dinner party not too long ago.
ACHN now has a comparable market cap to ENTA. If I shorted stocks, ACHN would be on my radar at the least.
How do you plan on buying the VIX? (that is, of course, if you do plan to buy it). I just spent time looking for a good way to "buy" the VIX with no conclusive answer.
Thanks for the information. I agree that the trend is the same as it has been, but the magnitude is what caught my attention. Almost 200bcf less than last year. Does Canada have the spare supply to make the difference up during the injection season?
Canadian NG storage numbers - YOY
/------Storage------/ /-Inject (withdraw)-/ YOY YOY Surplus
Current Prior Current Prior Change (Deficit)
5/30/2014 214.67 417.50 16.08 16.54 (0.46) (202.83)
The full data set can be found here: http://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=4288&mn=140798&pt=msg&mid=13891062. I couldn't format it well enough to post all of it.
The point of posting this is to bring attention to the fact that Canadian NG storage is almost half of what it was at this time last year. As this is the Natural Resources board, I thought it would be fitting to ask here. Does anyone have a play on this spread?
New gene tests may give cancer patients quicker path to treatment - Thomson Reuters Foundation
Article mentions Foundation Medicine Inc.
http://www.trust.org/item/20140606045806-jok10/
The point made in the article is valid. However, I'd like to see a figure for how many of the ABSSSI's are "uncomplicated", for lack of a better word. In other words, how many of those 183,000 patients are otherwise healthy enough to be treated as an outpatient? For skin infections, my guess would be a pretty high percent but I have nothing to back that up with.
Unfortunately for ISIS I'm not sure how well an injected drug would compete with oral options.
Here is the source of my reply. I take no credit nor do I know the validity of it (though I believe it to be 100% real).
http://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=341&mn=186994&pt=msg&mid=13752875
Also the first underliined/highlighted line is a link to an interesting excel spreadsheet regarding the future synergies of the deal.
For what it's worth I read ISI estimates off shore cash at 40 billion.
I am no lawyer, but everything I have read points to a favorable markman outcome relative to the '19 worst case scenario. However, until then CELG may be under additional pressure compared to large cap bio.
I wonder any information has ever been compiled regarding biotechs selling shares before or after a data readout, depending on the quality of the results?
Almost ironic in MNTA's case.
pcrutch, here is a good starting point.
A lot of CELG information can be found on this board.
http://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=341&mn=185426&pt=msg&mid=13644386
http://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=341&mn=185386&pt=msg&mid=13642136
http://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=341&mn=185382&pt=msg&mid=13642009
good luck.
Highlights of this issue
The US 1 list is intended to represent a collection of our best investment ideas that
are drawn from the universe of “Buy” rated US-listed stocks (including ADRs),
covered by BofA Merrill Lynch fundamental equity research analysts. The list will be
managed with a goal of providing superior investment performance over the long
term.
Allergan (AGN) is being removed from the US 1 list today due to the stock being
placed under “extended review
Thats all Merril wrote.
CELG CEO exercises 95k shares and holds 55k worth
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/816284/000120919114020609/xslF345X03/doc4.xml
Adds about 8.5 million to his stock pile on recent downturn. CELG kissing it's 200DMA on patent hearing and NICE decision to keep Revlimid 3rd line.
I opened a position today around $14.50 for similar reasons to those stated. Also believe MNTA will gain momentum into May. I'd like to see other's thoughts as well.
Fun fact to add. If you add up the mass of all the Botulinum Toxin ever used in Botox the mass would be less than 1 gram.
Excuse my ignorance Dew, but I dont quite understand. Can you explain your "trade-adjusted cost basis is considerably less than zero" statement.
What milestone payments (if any) are attached to -493 and -530? Tia
tweet on Kyprolis ASPIRE
https://twitter.com/VikramKhanna_/status/426091145014149120/photo/1
May be a long term positive for pomalyst.
And a bloody market. Imo ecyt is a stock I'll stay away from until this EU decision is out of the way.
Endocyte Provides Update on CHMP Review
May bode well for CELGZ in the future. Dr. Soon knows that science better than anyone else and must know the potential it holds. Amazing that he was able to sell the same technology to CELG and now is able to have CELG pay him to use it. And i thought celgene was a good deal maker ;).
Celgene announces 2014 financial outlook and 2013 results
Celgene Corporation Announces 2014 Financial Outlook and Preliminary 2013 Results
2013 Total Revenue Expected to be $6.5 Billion; Total Net Product Sales Expected to be $6.4 Billion
2013 Adjusted Diluted EPS Expected to be Approximately $5.96 which Includes a $0.13 Per Share Negative Impact from Collaboration-Related Payments to Partners (GAAP Range of $3.37 to $3.39)
2014 Guidance: Total Net Product Sales of $7.3 Billion to $7.4 Billion; REVLIMID® Net Sales of $4.9 Billion to $5.0 Billion; Adjusted Diluted EPS of $7.00 to $7.20 (GAAP Range of $5.54 to $5.92)
Long-Term Targets Raised: 2015 Total Net Product Sales and Adjusted Diluted EPS of $8.5 Billion to $9.5 Billion and $9.00 to $9.50, Respectively; 2017 Total Net Product Sales and Adjusted Diluted EPS of $13.0 Billion to $14.0 Billion and Approximately $15.00, Respectively
SUMMIT, N.J.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Jan. 13, 2014-- Celgene Corporation (NASDAQ:CELG) provided its preliminary 2013 results and financial outlook for 2014 and beyond at the 32nd Annual J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference. In 2013, total revenue is expected to be approximately $6.5 billion and total net product sales are expected to be $6.4 billion. Adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be approximately $5.96. Based on U.S. Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP), diluted EPS is expected to be in the range of $3.37 to $3.39. In 2014, total net product sales are expected to be $7.3 billion to $7.4 billion, a 16 percent year-over-year increase. Adjusted diluted EPS is expected to be $7.00 to $7.20, a 19 percent year-over-year increase based on the mid-point of the range. On a GAAP basis, diluted EPS is expected to be in the range of $5.54 to $5.92.
“Our 2013 accomplishments and confidence in our core business position us for another year of outstanding execution across all financial metrics in 2014 as we launch our I&I franchise and anticipate achieving many other significant milestones,” said Bob Hugin, Celgene’s Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. “2013 momentum and confidence in our business model leads us to raise our 2015 and 2017 targets.”
Preliminary 2013 Financial Results Year-Over-Year (Unaudited)
Total net product sales are expected to be $6.4 billion, up 18 percent year-over-year
REVLIMID®: $4,280 million, 14 percent year-over-year increase
ABRAXANE®: $649 million, 52 percent year-over-year increase
POMALYST®/IMNOVID®: $305 million
Adjusted operating margin is expected to be approximately 48.4 percent for the full year, up 30 basis points (bps) year-over-year and includes the impact of $65 million in collaboration-related payments to partners. GAAP operating margin is expected to be approximately 27.9 percent, a decrease of 385 bps year-over-year, primarily due to increased upfront payments to collaboration partners in 2013
Adjusted 2013 diluted EPS is expected to be approximately $5.96, a 21 percent year-over-year increase. This includes a $0.13 per share negative impact from collaboration-related payments to partners. On a GAAP basis, diluted EPS is expected to be in the range of $3.37 to $3.39
For the fourth quarter of 2013 adjusted diluted EPS is expected to be approximately $1.51 which includes a $0.10 per share negative impact from collaboration-related payments to partners. On a GAAP basis, diluted EPS is expected to be in the range of $0.50 to $0.52
Certain activities involved in determining the audited results for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2013 are in process and could result in the final reported audited results being different from the unaudited results noted in this press release. Please see the attached Reconciliation of Estimated/Projected GAAP to Adjusted Measures for further information.
Celgene Forecasts Strong Product Sales and Earnings Growth in 2014
Total revenue expected to be approximately $7.5 billion, an increase of 15 percent year-over-year
Total net product sales are expected to be $7.3 billion to $7.4 billion, an increase of 16 percent year-over-year based on the mid-point of the range
REVLIMID® net sales are expected to be in the range of $4.9 billion to $5.0 billion, an increase of 16 percent year-over-year based on the mid-point of the range
Adjusted operating margin expected to be approximately 50 percent after investments across the entire organization, including the Inflammation and Immunology (I&I) franchise; GAAP operating margins are expected to be approximately 39 percent
Adjusted diluted EPS expected to be in the range of $7.00 to $7.20, an increase of approximately 19 percent year-over-year based on the mid-point of the range. On a GAAP basis, diluted EPS is expected to be in the range of $5.54 to $5.92
Raising 2015 and 2017 Long-term Financial Targets
Raising 2015 net product sales target to $8.5 billion to $9.5 billion from $8.0 billion to $9.0 billion
Raising 2015 adjusted diluted EPS target to $9.00 to $9.50 from $8.00 to $9.00
Raising 2017 net product sales target to $13.0 billion to $14.0 billion from $12.0 billion plus
2017 net product sales targets expected to be:
REVLIMID®: $7.0 billion (previously $6.0 billion)
POMALYST®/IMNOVID®: $1.5 billion (previously $1.0 billion)
ABRAXANE®: $1.5 billion to $2.0 billion (unchanged)
OTEZLA® (apremilast): $1.5 billion to $2.0 billion (unchanged)
2017 operating margin expected to be approximately 57 percent (previously 55 percent)
2017 fully diluted share count is expected to be 425 million (previously 430 million)
Raising 2017 adjusted diluted EPS target to approximately $15.00 from $13.00 to $14.00
2014 Expected Milestones
Hematology
Submit REVLIMID® newly diagnosed multiple myeloma with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and the European Medicines Agency (EMA)
Data from the VIDAZA® phase III AZA-AML-001 in elderly newly diagnosed acute myeloid leukemia (AML)
Submit VIDAZA® for approval in AML in Europe
Data from phase III MDS-005 trial of REVLIMID® in non-del5q myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS)
Data from pivotal phase II MCL-002 trial of REVLIMID® in relapsed and refractory mantle cell lymphoma
Complete enrollment in the phase III REMARC trial with REVLIMID® as maintenance in patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma responding to R-CHOP induction
Complete enrollment in the phase III RELEVANCE® trial of REVLIMID® in combination with rituximab in newly diagnosed follicular lymphoma
Complete enrollment in the phase III CONTINUUM trial with REVLIMID® maintenance after second-line treatment in chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL)
Submit POMALYST®/IMNOVID® for relapsed and refractory multiple myeloma (RRMM) for approval in Japan
Phase I data on MOR202 in RRMM
Initial phase I/II data of CC-292 in combination with REVLIMID® in CLL
Initial data on novel combinations with CC-122, CC-292 and CC-223 in lymphoma
Phase II data on sotatercept (ACE-011) and ACE-536 in MDS and ß-thalassemia
Initiate phase III trial of sotatercept/ACE-536 in ß-thalassemia
Oncology
Launch of ABRAXANE® in pancreatic cancer in Europe and other international markets
Initiate the phase III trial of ABRAXANE® in adjuvant pancreatic cancer
Initiate phase III trial of ABRAXANE® maintenance in first line stage IIIB/IV squamous cell non-small cell lung cancer
Phase I data of AZA-ST-001, a priming study of CC-486 in combination with carboplatin or ABRAXANE® in solid tumors
Phase Ib data of demcizumab combinations in pancreatic cancer and non-small cell lung cancer
I&I
FDA approval of OTEZLA® in psoriatic arthritis and psoriasis
Opinion from the European Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use (CHMP) for OTEZLA® in psoriatic arthritis and psoriasis
Data from phase III POSTURE trial in ankylosing spondylitis
Presentation of additional data from the phase III ESTEEM program in psoriasis at the American Academy of Dermatology meeting in March
Initiation of phase II trials of OTEZLA® in Crohn’s disease, ulcerative colitis and atopic dermatitis
Advance CC-220 into phase II (systemic lupus erythematosus, scleroderma, sarcoidosis)
Phase II data on CC-292 in rheumatoid arthritis
Data from phase II trial of sotatercept in renal anemia
Initiate phase III trial with OTEZLA® in Behçet's disease
Link
http://ir.celgene.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=111960&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=1890273&highlight=