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Plus Washington Federal Case still progressing, correct? That's the best plaintiff argument of all of them, if you ask me. Challenges the original '08 action.
Just imagine a judge nullifying the last 9 yrs of this saga and ordering just compensation, all dividends in arrears to be paid immediately plus interest. In a just world that would be the judgement. In our world, appeal would take 2 more years, the appeal again another 2 yrs, by which time the final verdict by the supreme court after another year will be to tell the plaintiffs they're totally correct but award them nothing.
Is GSE issue the reason Senate delaysNewTaxRate? The senate's bill delays the new tax rate by a year, doesn't it?
My first thought was: the "establishment" GOP doesn't want Trump getting any credit until after mid term elections happen, so they delay the tax rate reduction by 1 year. But now I'm wondering if the delay was meant to address the GSEs' DTA situation, or to buy more time on that issue, since Mnuchin and congress have stated that "housing reform" has been pushed back (was supposed to be addressed in 2017) into 2018 on the priorities/agenda.
If the proposal for a delay in the new tax rate passes through reconciliation, then does that suggest there is not necessarily a strong will to destroy the GSEs? If their destruction is still the TBTF's preference, they'd lobby for the new tax rate to take effect immediately so that the GSEs are forced to draw from treasury.
Nothing. Gop's done nothing so it's puzzling. They'll be blamed for allowing a bailout if/when a draw from treasury happens, and that would be quite a political wound, I would think!
But yet they've done nothing to stop a draw from treasury from being necessary.
Is the TBTF lobbying so successful that it is causing the GOP to go on such a suicide mission as to allow the conditions that will necessitate a draw from treasury? And so successful that there is zero consideration in the huge new tax reform for the GSEs' DTA problem?
I fear I smell another setup. Rather, the final blow from TBTF. They have masterfully arranged things for themselves to work out this way over the last 10 yrs or so.
Option2 makes sense. You nailed exactly what I was thinking: the TIME aspect is crucial in the POLITICAL equation here. That means that a simple retaining of the NWS payments will build capital but...will it be a fast enough process to avoid a draw from treasury? I'd say that'd be uncertain at best.
I hadn't thought of option2 but it does solve that timing aspect of the political equation. We see zero evidence that DC is interested in option2. I fear congress will slow things down to the point where a draw is a real possibility.
Interesting angle: gop fear bailout blame. I haven't thought much about that subtlety. If the GSEs tap Treasury again, the Dems/Media complex will scream and shout "bailout! Bailout!" And it'll be echoed and amplified all over the place. GOP would thus get blamed for allowing a bailout in an election year.
But what can the GSE do to avoid it? Only allowing a significant recap would prevent the need to tap treasury.
Does this mean Moelis is even more likely to be passed?
That's exactly what I've been predicting. It'll be a full-on fiction show, as we see from MSM week after week.
I had heard that, yes. So I was just asking if anyone else had heard the same. Were you admitted into the BAR association?
Thanks a lot Gmonkey! Will do. Interesting that you called the effective result a "private guild law", meaning a specific interpretation of law as taught and practiced by only one guild that happens to utterly dominate the legal professions/industry.
I couldn't agree more! Having learned "for real" how to do analysis of investments, having earned an MBA in Finance, i can't even express how much sense fundamental analysis makes to me. It makes tons of sense, and is the real and best way to judge an investment. I absolutely love it. But I can barely fathom how totally disconnected the actual world of investments is from fundamental analysis! That world is full of Thieves, criminals, politicians, mafioso government, rogue traders, lawless SEC and CFTC. It goes on and on. To say nothing of the GSE saga. And how can anything be subjected to fundamental analysis when our entire monetary system is a fairy-land ponzi scheme? I'm just supposed to sit here and watch P/E's go up and up forever while the real economy is stagnant with the exception of a small number of extremely large companies, and be called a sucker if I don't buy into it all? Did anyone read Jim Chanos's recent comments about Tesla, for example? I completely agree with him. And it's not rocket science! "Glamor" is not a factor in fundamental analysis of stocks. Maybe it should be. The market has gone over 250 days without a 3% correction? This is not natural. There are many etherial and flakey things underpinning this incredibly rapid rise we see in entire indexes like the NASDAQ. Pure insanity over the last couple of months. And an entire index moves about 3 standard deviations in a SINGLE DAY (as the NASDAQ did a couple of weeks ago)?! We fundamental analysts, I think, are left by the wayside, and it could be a quiet a while before our skills are relevant again.
Can you shed some light on something I've been wondering about? And it could possibly be relevant in this GSE fiasco, indeed. I've heard or read that before being accepted into the BAR Association, one has to take something like oath, or swear that he will never tell anyone about various things that the BAR Association keeps secret from everyone. These things supposedly include stuff like how the US basically went into bankruptcy back in the 1930s, and as terms of the bailout it received from bankers, all legal proceedings in the US since then occur under the auspices of debt court, or debt law, and not common law. I might be wording that wrongly, but I have always wondered if it's true that anyone who's a member of the BAR association is working together, judges and lawyers, with a wink and a nod in this somehow alternate legal regime that they have sworn to never reveal to the public, and not the legal regime the nation was founded upon. I am totally fascinated by the apparent and sometimes seemingly obvious legal "disconnectedness" from Common Law in this country. I'm also fascinated by idea of the corporation aspect of the US, and by the supposed two legal entities embodied in any one individual; the natural man and the corporate entity. 1) can you tell me what you know about that secret BAR association oath? And why hasn't anyone ever betrayed that oath? Got any interesting links? 2) how does one go about studying law outside of the BAR association's version of it? What sources or books would one read? Got any links? Thanks a ton. I enjoy your posts a lot!
Dual threats: taxReform and 1/1/18zeroCapital/Jumpstart. Both threats are controlled by congress. We're seeing a well-timed kill shot by the TBTF. At least that is my fear. I'm long and have been for years. But it's typical of congress to wrap a devious act such as taking a multi-billion dollar slice out of the GSEs' balance sheet into a bill like one reforming and lowering taxes. And to do so on the eve of the congressionally-set zero capital date is again probably a coordinated series of moves meant to eliminate the GSEs. Courts? Ha.
I've always had similar concerns.
Revolt? TPTB want to completely demoralize entire population. That means they want to remove from the population the will to fight back, the means to do so, and the brains to even know when it's time to revolt.
But regarding the GSEs, i'm not sure what avenues of mass revolt are even available at this point.
"Time&place of defendant's choosing"=1yrDelay.
And Facebook removed her eye-witness account of Vegas.
Down the memory hole it goes.
Jones broke Vegas details 10 days before MainstreamMedia btw. The day after it happened, his sources gave him quite a few details that the sheriff had not released yet, and which the Sheriff didn't release until 10 days later.
In some cases, the man has excellent sources. That's for sure.
You are dead-on accurate. Agree with every single word. I've posted similar lists of lies and trickery and corruption.
But I'd like to stress that people who read this realize that the type of corruption and nonsense we've seen by following the GSE saga is NOT unique to government. Please be aware that it is much more common than most people think. Buyer beware, and don't look to the media for ANY information. Only rely on original sources/ primary sources.
Just another TINY example from today alone is this story some media outlets published that says Tillerson called Trump a "moron". Then Tillerson had a press conference saying it wasn't true, and this is why he doesn't get involved in "petty" DC sniping. No matter who you believe, someone is lying. That's the point.
When literally trillions of $ are at stake, do not think there is some kind of limit on the quantity, scope, and degree of lying that's possible.
We saw a President snap into action giving a hastily prepared statement on the eve of a GSE earnings announcement, with the intention of reducing interest in the shares. It was a very sloppily-written statement, and he took no questions. Who do you think put him up to that? It was the cabal, the TBTF, etc etc.
Interesting point about scotus. And yeah i'm extremely happy that some of the documents were compelled. I don't "miss the point", I think, because I've said here on this board that I might be willing to give up my potential gains in order to have ALL the documents released. Unfortunately, no one will give me the power to decide that.
But it's also interesting that you said scotus justices wouldn't be proud to side with liars, but then added that they might still rule with gvt.
I have zero faith in judges after hearing the totally ignorant judges in the appeals verbal arguments recordings. Millet, etc... Ugh!
Just wait 'til she rules case dismissed!
And I certainly do NOT hope that happens! But with all we've learned about how the government (all branches) truly work, I sadly have to say I wouldn't be too surprised if she dismissed the case after the many years of careful consideration (cough cough...delay delay).
Think of it this way, if you were a judge taking bribe $ to, say, rule in favor of the defendant, wouldn't you kinda have to ACT like you were impartial and go through the normal procedure? I don't think she's crooked. But objectively, if she were, we wouldn't be able to tell because of she were smart and crooked, she'd act impartial until her ruling.
Everyone is optimistic bc she does seem to be thorough, and the optimists think that means she's closing off chances for any appeal after her ruling. But that could be a negative for shareholders too! If she rules case dismissed, and has totally thoroughly and methodically handled the proceedings in the case, as she has, then she will have cut off any chances for plaintiffs to be successful in any appeal!
So we can NOT simply sit back and think Sweeney is our only hope. It still seems like a crapshoot to me, her ruling. She does APPEAR to be tough of the government, though. But it doesn't mean she'll rule against the government.
Corker won't leave for another 15 months. Plenty of time to screw shareholders, especially since the big zero capital day is only a few months away. Congress will wait until this "sudden emergency" of zero capital comes up, at which point they'll catch the "do something" fever. That's when they'll all look to Corker as the "most informed and ethical man in Congress" to lead "GSE reform". They'll pass the "save the GSEs Act", the purpose and language of which eliminates the GSEs.
That's just my cynical nightmare scenario.
Please update on conference call info if possible. Thanks.
I fear that is accurate. Layton's clever use of language sorta disguises the facts you describe.
Also, regarding Chicago section 8. I've heard from numerous different people in Chicago, landlords, real estate agents, etc, that the section 8 renters are the pickiest and choosiest group of renters they see. They are always apparently (according to those agents and landlords) looking for the fanciest apartments, with the best views and nicest amenities. They know their rent is being subsidized, and they're only paying maybe a few hundred$/month out of their own pockets, so they want only the very best apartments, of course.
I know of an investor who bought a house in a rougher neighborhood in chicago, and fixed it up intending to rent it. The problem was that the investor only did medium level rehab, so that the house matched or slightly exceeded the other houses in that immediate area in quality (in terms of interior and exterior quality). The investor's logic was: why over-improve the house? Why make the interior so fancy that no one in this neighborhood can afford to live there? Anyway, Once the investor finished the moderate rehab job and tried to rent the house, there were NO takers!! For months!! Nothing was wrong with the house at all. The investor finally learned that the house wasn't nice enough for the average section 8 family, which is the type of family the investor intended to serve by rehabbing this house in the first place. The investor learned that section 8 renters are, to put it one way, kinda "snobby" when it comes to choosing the house/apartment they want to rent.
Are you referring to when Chicago was deciding how to dismantle Cabrini Green and Taylor homes? That was back in the late 1990s. And the city did end up knocking those buildings down and sending most of those residents into section 8 housing units scattered throughout the entire city, and paying market rents to the landlords via subsidy from HUD. Correct? I watched those Cabrini buildings get torn down! The impetus behind the whole thing was, I thought, that the land on which Cabrini sat had so much unlocked value, given its prime location, if only it could be flattened and redeveloped. So I always thought the real estate industry was behind the push to redevelop Cabrini and move those residents.
Or are you referring to an earlier time? If so, I'd love to hear about that because I probably am not as aware of what happened back then. Please give more detail if you have time. Sorry for the delayed response on this but I had always meant to reply since I first read it.
If they printed $2T, Fed's balance sheet grows. They're trying to shrink their balance sheet bc it's at unbelievably extreme levels.
Perspective: the Fed's (and any central bank's) long game is to throw a lot of dollars out into the system for a while (years), and then pull them back out of the system for a while (years). Every dollar is actually a debt. They're issuing lots of debt over years and then calling it in over a period of years also. They are playing the amount of money in circulation like an accordion. Push it out, then suck it back in, and make money doing it. If they have decided to start sucking dollars back in, why would they also want to print $2T of new dollars? It wouldn't fit what they're trying to do now as they move into the next part of the cycle.
Amen amen amen. Keep it up.
I'm aware of operation mockingbird.
Thanks for reminding me about that one. Btw if one looks at a list of past CIA operations, and one has a reasonable measure of critical thinking and decency, one might be outraged. I'm all for strong intel services etc but if you look at some of the things they've done, some of their operations were downright psychopathic/sociopathic. You'd literally have to be sociopathic to come up with some of those ideas and plan, train, and execute some of those operations. There is this strain of thought that suggests the CIA is basically an arm of the TBTF and central bank interests. I've not looked into that idea much but from what i've learned about how the world works, I wouldn't dismiss it out of hand.
I think if a bill were named MAGA, it's purpose would be to make America horrendous, even more than it has become over the last 15-20 yrs. But if we want a bill to put all the politicians in jail, which would be a bill I would wholeheartedly support, then in keeping with Congress's methods of deception, we'd have to name the bill something like the "keep politicians free act." If we wanted to Make America Great Again with some magical bill, it'd have to be called the "Make America a Cesspool Act."
But "Path" is such a nice name for a bill. The CIA names all their operations in such a way to maintain secrecy, as does the military. And Congress gives names to bills that suggest the exact opposite of the intended results/impact of the bills.
"The save all puppies 2017 act" would thus be the name of a bill that provides funding for extermination of all puppies, starting in the year 2026.
See "Affordable Care Act", "Patriot Act", etc.
Problem: no jury could follow accounting details. As we've seen, such details confuse even judges.
This case has made me imagine/think that there is basically a whole area of "white collar" law wherein, to achieve prosecution of a guilty party requires a jury that's as educated and informed about the details of the crime (say, accounting) as the perpetrator is. And that is highly unlikely in some cases! Lacking that, the judge would have to be as informed and experienced as the perpetrator. I think there are many potential crimes that could never effectively be prosecuted because of this fact. One expert witness could simply refute any other expert witness, as often happens in court.
Worried. Why'd Mnuchin say "need to fix"? GSEs HAVE already been fixed! Running like clockwork, finely tuned machines except for the fact that their profits go to Treasury every quarter! But look at their performance. Delinquencies down, etc.
When a policy maker says we "still need to fix the GSEs", I worry he means "we still have to hand the GSEs' business over to the TBTF".
WB specializes in "highly regulated" sectors, shall we say. That's a delicate way of putting it. One might wonder how one succeeds so incredibly when many of one's investments are so heavily regulated.
Does one have any special "access", perhaps?
Brilliant. Critics will argue "but WFC and BRK aren't government sponsored agencies!" To which the reply would be "are you serious? Have you ever read TARP?"
Exactly. That's Moelis plan's purpose.
I agree with you, too Lumpina. And It's a pleasure reading your posts, btw.
Thanks Camacho. That's a high compliment, given some of the great posts I can recall here.
plaintiffs understand: gvt can partially getAway with this, at least. It's also possible the gvt might entirely get away with it. A realist like any fund manager should be will understand that even though his entire wallet was stolen, he might eventually only get his driver's license and a few credit cards returned to him, while any cash he left in there will almost certainly never be returned. Also, if the plaintiffs push too hard for total relief, they'll get squashed by the corrupt machinery of gvt ultimately, and maybe in some indirect way later on, when they least expect it.
Most of the major plaintiffs probably understand who they're really up against here, when you dig deep enough. They're up against the most feared and powerful entities and families in the world, if one accepts that the TBTF are behind this entire scheme.
I agree entirely with you. I wouldn't stop fighting and I wouldn't accept the Moelis plan bc it basically sanctions the theft and asks the victims to play nicely from now on while they continue to get robbed. But...if I was managing billions of other people's dollars, i'd have to pursue settlement talks with the gvt. There's just too much of a risk that the SCOTUS would shut down any hope for justice and compensation, as obviously wrong as such a decision would be.
Basically, we've been watching up close how "they" really CAN "get away with it." We've seen all the delay tactics, the lies, even perjury, secret documents, efforts to steal and coopt the GSEs' "secret sauce" and give it away to the TBTF, the corrupt media aiding and abetting, the incompetent judges, the self-dealing, the stealing of settlement money, of private property. This is how "they" do it! It's an entire web of tactics, some very subtle, some not. It's like a tightly woven fabric found in a bullet proof vest. But the purpose here is theft, not protection. The many layers of deception and corruption make their theft almost bullet proof, almost untouchable, it seems.
Pure truth there. Thanks so much.
Why the spike in short interest? News coming next week?
A former analyst told me that. She had been around the biz a long time.